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 Kessel - Pending UFA

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Alex116 Posted - 08/27/2013 : 22:51:39
Seems that there's a very good chance Kessel enters the season without an extension to his existing deal. If this article is accurate, Leaf fans ought to be concerned as Kessel says he doesn't anticipate contract talks during the season as he feels it would be a distraction. He goes on to mention how "most guys who get to that point (UFA status), don't stay (with their current team)". Hmmmm.....

What do you guys think, both how he'll perform in this contract year and will he resign in TO?
40   L A T E S T    R E P L I E S    (Newest First)
Beans15 Posted - 10/03/2013 : 12:05:37
Without getting too far off track, the point of contracts is not only the money but also the term. To Nux statement about paying the Sedin's $7 million next season. I would have far less issue with a $7 mil cap hit for 1 or 2 years but if they are signed to say a 5 yr $35 million deal each, that is too much.

Don't get me wrong, I will be the first to admit that Kessel has evolved into an elite scorer. You can't be in the top 10 for 2 straight years and be one of the top 5 guys in total points over the last 4 years if you are not an elite scorer. But I still don't think he commands the 8th highest salary in the NHL based on annual cap hit. Back to my point about who the GM's would draft, the player's that a team would build around are the players who should be getting the $8 million+ salaries.

Kessel is not a guy to build a team around. He hasn't proven it in his entire career and it's not really likely he would start now. He is a top teir #2 guy. I think putting him as a complimentary piece beside a Toews, Getzlaf, Staal, Crosby, Malkin, et al would be almost impossible to stop.

But he is not THE core building block.

Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!

@valanche Posted - 10/03/2013 : 12:01:03
seems like there are no players in the 2.5-5 million range anymore.
now its either star or filler no inbetween.

66 is > than 99
nuxfan Posted - 10/02/2013 : 21:43:23
quote:
Originally posted by Pasty7

Tsn.ca list kessel as the 43rd best player in the NHL, take away the 3 goalies listed ahead of him Rinne, Lundquvist and Qucik, hes the 40th best skater.

then I would personally give that kind of money to Kessel before 33 year old Sedin twins ,
everyone knows on this site i'm a huge Rick Nash fan and i would put Kessel right about on par with Nash, who is 29 th on this list. I don't think anyone would be crazy to say they would prefer a 26 year old Kessel to a 29 year old Nash on their team at 8 million cap hit.




We've perhaps gone a little off topic with your scenario, but I think in a world where all rosters have been thrown out and GM's are drafting new teams, Kessel does not get chosen early. Most GM's would likely build around:

- solid starting goaltender
- elite top-2 dman
- elite top centre

and then worry about one-dimensional-but-talented wingers. I don't even think TOR would choose Kessel with their first pick in this sort of draft, and TSN rankings probably mean very little in this scenario. But we digress...

8M is significant money. In the current cap world,it represents 12.5% of your total cap, most teams can only afford 1 of these contracts, perhaps 2 if they are truly special players (revisit the discussion around ANA and Getzlaf/Perry). If you are one of those teams with an 8M contract or two, the player needs to be capital-S Special, not just elite, but elite amongst elites. There are only 7 players in the NHL making 8M+ per year, so the club is exclusive. IMO they need to be multi-dimensional - a 25+ minute defenseman that plays all 3 situations and scores a boatload of points as well, or a top centre that plays all situations, takes faceoffs, and probably scores PPG or better more often than not. Leadership is key - 4 of the 7 are the captains of their respective teams, and 2 of the others would probably be if they were not on the same team as their captains. As Beans said - no disrespect to Kessel, he is a talented offensive player. But he is not in the same class as the rest of the 8M club.

Regarding the Sedin's vs Kessel vs Nash - I would give none of them 8M per season, albeit for different reasons. And, only one of those players is currently making 8M - the Sedin's are both under (time will tell where they end up), and Nash is merely making 7.5M. If Gillis pays the Sedin's 8M each next year, I might cancel my tickets and return my jersey - unless the cap were to rise to 70M or more, I think that would be one of the most irresponsible financial decisions that he could make with the Canucks at this point.
JOSHUACANADA Posted - 10/02/2013 : 15:19:00
I could see Kessel go in the first 20 forwards, but not the first 30 players if I was gonna rank my draft. Does that mean he is or isn't worth his signed contract value. There are players I would draft for a real hockey team, not a fantasy draft which I would expect at a lower contract value than Kessel. Doesn't mean he isn't worth the $8 million he is signed for.
Pasty7 Posted - 10/02/2013 : 15:16:34
if you include goalies maybe he gets bumped to the second round but you really think he isn't a top 30 skater in the NHL in a fantasy draft at his age 26? I mean i'm a habs fan it's not like i like admitting this but I couldn't see 30 teams passing this guy up in the first round.

Tsn.ca list kessel as the 43rd best player in the NHL, take away the 3 goalies listed ahead of him Rinne, Lundquvist and Qucik, hes the 40th best skater.

then I would personally give that kind of money to Kessel before 33 year old Sedin twins ,
everyone knows on this site i'm a huge Rick Nash fan and i would put Kessel right about on par with Nash, who is 29 th on this list. I don't think anyone would be crazy to say they would prefer a 26 year old Kessel to a 29 year old Nash on their team at 8 million cap hit.

Hello, 911? It's an emergency, my teddy bear's been kidnapped!
[pause] Hello? Hello?
nuxfan Posted - 10/02/2013 : 13:50:43
quote:
Originally posted by Pasty7

yeah but beans on the other side of that IMO if the NHL abolished all current rosters and allowed NHL GMs to fantasy draft Kessel would be drafted in the first round, on a lot of teams Kessel would be the best player on the team,

Hello, 911? It's an emergency, my teddy bear's been kidnapped!
[pause] Hello? Hello?




I doubt that.

Drafting a full team is quite a different thing... there is no way that Kessel is one of the 30 best players, over all positions in the NHL.
Pasty7 Posted - 10/02/2013 : 11:48:02
yeah but beans on the other side of that IMO if the NHL abolished all current rosters and allowed NHL GMs to fantasy draft Kessel would be drafted in the first round, on a lot of teams Kessel would be the best player on the team,

Hello, 911? It's an emergency, my teddy bear's been kidnapped!
[pause] Hello? Hello?
Beans15 Posted - 10/02/2013 : 09:41:16
There is the argument that Doug MacKenzie discussed yesterday which is the cost of doing business. We could all argue if he's worth it or not as a player but that is almost not relevant. What would have happened had Kessel become a free agent next July?? Again, we can argue this a lot too but I personally believe some idiot would have spend $8 million/season.

The market is what it is and until GM's/Owners manage themselves that price of doing business continues to increase.


I guess when I look at this situation I think that a player with a cap hit of $8 million or more is a cornerstone player that most GM's would build a team around. And I mean this as no disrespect to Kessel because he is an elite level offensive player. But I am pretty sure if you did an anonomous poll of the 30 NHL GM's asking who is the one skated(no goalies) you would draft #1 overall in an expansion draft, Kessel is not top5. I would argue he would likely not be top10.



Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!

Alex116 Posted - 10/01/2013 : 15:24:34
Man, i don't know what to say regarding this. I'm at a total loss for where contracts are still and will be moving forward. I no longer know what to expect as far as "market value" goes. I mean, isn't market value basically what one can get on the "open market"?

I want to criticize the Leafs for a contract that I feel is both too high and for too long, but i'm not sure it's fair of me to do so.

Problem with the arguments here is that guys sign deals at different times, different points of their careers, different ages, etc, etc. Is it fair to say J. Thornton is worth more than Kessel? To be honest, if i'm looking for a guy for a 2-3 year window, i'm taking Joe, but if i'm in a rebuilding mode where I think i'm getting close with my team, i'm all over Kessel as Thornton's best days are likely behind him, or soon to be. Some of the comparisons and player preferences I agree with, but others I don't at all. Jeff Carter? I'd take Kessel over him in a heartbeat. Lucic? Quite a different player to begin with, but i'm taking the scorer (Kessel) over the physical power forward for sure. Even James Neal, who I think is really benefitting from his new found home beside Malkin, I prob pass over for Kessel.

Anyway, it's really more a debate about where Kessel sits in your rankings of NHLers. I know it's got to do with a contract, but you almost have to leave it out. Beans....in your list of 7-8M guys, you've got Nash, Parise, Gaborik, Thornton and Stamkos who you'd take over Phil. Personally I'm not sure i'd include Gaborik in there and maybe not even Nash at this point of his career, but when were these deals signed? I don't think for a second, any Leaf fan is gonna claim that Kessel is worth more than Stamkos, but the fact of the matter is, Stamkos signed his deal 2+ years ago! No telling what he'd get from Stevie Y today?

Regardless though, 8 years is a long time. What's going to be interesting is whether or not 6 or 7 years from now Kessel is still putting up PPG numbers and by then will the salaries be paying PPG guys 10-12M???
nuxfan Posted - 10/01/2013 : 14:32:13
quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

Hey Slozo, I don't have the same problem with Kessel making $8 million a season that the other poster's seem to have. The only question is of the players they have listed, which there are not that many that they can ramble off projections and worth greater than Kessel, how many will sign contract of the same or greater value in the next 5 years or so. I say the majority of the list will demand equal or greater value. Does this mean it is a good or great signing, no. I think it is too long and clearly not a home town discount, which means Toronto twice has overpaid for Kessel, whether or not $8 million is his value today.



This raises the really interesting question - is Kessel getting paid at the market, or does his contract set a new market for that type of player? I'm guessing the latter, which will have impacts on a variety of players who's contracts are coming up for renewal.
JOSHUACANADA Posted - 10/01/2013 : 13:41:38
Hey Slozo, I don't have the same problem with Kessel making $8 million a season that the other poster's seem to have. The only question is of the players they have listed, which there are not that many that they can ramble off projections and worth greater than Kessel, how many will sign contract of the same or greater value in the next 5 years or so. I say the majority of the list will demand equal or greater value. Does this mean it is a good or great signing, no. I think it is too long and clearly not a home town discount, which means Toronto twice has overpaid for Kessel, whether or not $8 million is his value today.
nuxfan Posted - 10/01/2013 : 13:28:51
quote:
Originally posted by slozo

1) He just scores, period.
True, he does score a lot . . . and he also does a lot of playmaking. Playing almost entirely in his Toronto career with Bozak - a second line centre at best - and a parade of other wingers who have all been basically solid second liners save for Lupul, he has put up these assist totals:
Last Year: 32 (T14th)
2011/12: 45 (T21st)
2010/11: 32 (T79th)

That's the last three years, where he has dramatically improved/increased his numbers each season.

And ask anybody who watches a lot of Leaf games . . . Kessel is the best player on the ice more than half the games in the season, he controls/dictates the play. Which is the sign of any great player.



Thanks to CBC, I actually do watch a lot of Leafs games. I see Kessel quite a bit. He is often the best Leaf on the ice for sure - to be fair, in seasons past that has spoken more about the rest of the Leafs team though.

Just because you are the best player on a team, does not make you worth 8M a year.
quote:

2) He is not physical, he does not play a strong defensive game.

True, he is not very physical at all - he does get into it more and more now, but certainly on the other side of physical. So are a lot of other wingers (see: Patrick Kane).

And to defence . . . it's not stellar, no; but it's certainly not subpar at all among top 20 wingers.



I agree, Patrick Kane is not a very physical winger, and there are a few wingers that are on the small side and don't play that game. However, none of them are making 8M a year either.

quote:

3) I know that he's pretty streaky.

I went through this on another topic thread I know, where I completely disproved this with someone else commenting the same thing . . . and it's funny how much people just repeat what a commentator said, or don't do the actual research and look at his compareables.

Bottom line - if you don't believe me, do your own research (and show me!), but Kessel is actually EXTREMELY consistent among the top goalscorers . . . exceptionally so. He is actually top three in consistency, which makes him such a sure bet in fantasy hockey pools! He doesn't get injured (knock on wood); he ALWAYS gets his 30 goals; and he has been a perrenially improving player points-wise.



He does consistently get his points at the end of they year - I was insinuating that during the year he seems to go through some very dry patches. In week-to-week pools it is noticeable, but its not a huge deal

quote:

4) "If a guy on my team is making 8M a year, and all he can do is score, I'm not satisfied unless he's at the 40g/100pt mark every season... "

Wow. Just . . . wow.

Please name me all the players making 8M or more a season, and then name me all those players who have consistently gotten close to 40 goals/100 points a year . . . Just for the last two years even (extrapolating for last year's half season), give me the names.



There are currently only 6 players in the NHL with cap hits greater than 8M, so its a pretty elite group. Of those 6, 3 have been around 40g and/or 100p (actual or prorated based on games played) over the past 2-3 years:

- Sidney Crosby
- Evgeni Malkin
- Alex Ovechkin

I don't think I have to say I'd take any of those 3 over Kessel, it should be obvious. The other 3 (Staal, Getzlaf, Perry), bring a lot more dimension to the table than Kessel does, I would take any of those 3 over him as well.

quote:

This is where we come to consistency, no?

Kessel is a guarantee to hit 30 goals and 80 points statistically speaking . . . which makes him a top ten player for points IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE and a top 10 player IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE for goals. And top 20 or so for assists.



Guaranteed? Nothing is guaranteed, and Kessel's track record of 30/80 is limited to 1.5 seasons. I certainly think he's a good bet to make 70, but guaranteed, no.

However, at 8M a year, 80pts is a starting point. For 12.5% of my entire payroll, I would expect at least 80 points in a season from a pure scoring winger. Can Kessel do that?
Beans15 Posted - 10/01/2013 : 12:49:41
First off, there are literally 40 players in the NHL that are within a reasonable number of goals and points to Kessel every seasons.

Secondly, there is nothing your blue tinted vision can say that will prove that Phil Kessel isn't a) a poor defensive player or b) streaky. I don't think anyone is going to say he won get his 30 goals/70 pts, but that doesn't mean that he is consisently getting 3-4 points a week or does he go on streaks where he gets 12 pts in 10 games then 5 in the next 10 games??

Thirdly, the list of forwards with an $8 million cap hit or greater are: Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Perry, Getzlaf, Staal. I take every single one of those guys over Kessel.

Fourth, here is a list of forward at $7-$8 million: Nash, Parise, Heatley, Gaborik, Stamkos, Vanek, Spezza, Thornton, Semin. I take Nash, Parise, Gaborik, Thornton, and Stamkos ahead of Kessel. I put Kessel on par with Vanek and Semin (as pure scorers only), and I put Heatley and Vanek as the only 2 guys I put Kessel ahead of. Most would agree that Heatley and Vanek are both on back contracts.

Finally, Let's go a level further and look at the forwards between $6-$7 million: Marleau, Kopitar, Koivu, Datsuyk, Richards, Stastny, Kane, Towes, Sedin, Sedin, Zetterburg, Cammalleri, Staal, Hall, Eberle, Lucic. There are more but I think my point is made. Kessel is near the top of this group but still behind guys like Datsuyk, Toews, Zetterberg, Sedin, Sedin, and Kopitar.


Kessel does not deserve to be in the ranks with the elite guys making $8 million or more. He is a distant argument in the range of $7-$8million, but reasonable he is in the discussion with the guys in the $6-$7 million range. Maybe not in the first teir of guys making $6-7 but certainly in the top of the next teir. I see Kessel's value at closer to $6.75m/season. I know some idiot would have spent $8 million as a UFA too, but for pure hockey value, it's really hard to put him in the $8 million club.





Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!

nuxfan Posted - 10/01/2013 : 11:34:33
quote:
Originally posted by slozo
I see . . . I didn't realise that Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Weber, Doughty and Keith were wingers.

OH, RIGHT . . . they're not.

So please point out the wingers who are ahead of Kessel, or at least his compareables, and let us know again how Kessel is not top three in his position?

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug



I would rank the following wingers as above Kessel:

- Corey Perry
- Daniel Sedin
- Malkin (plays both wing and centre)
- James Neal
- Rick Nash
- Milan Lucic
- Jeff Carter

This is off the top of my head, but I would put all these wingers above Kessel. Some are above based solely on production, others based on a combination of things and versatility.
slozo Posted - 10/01/2013 : 11:03:07
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan

the main problem I have with Kessel is that he is a very uni-dimensional player. He scores, period. He is not physical, he does not play a strong defensive game. Having owned him in hockey pools the last couple of years, I know that he's pretty streaky.

While players that have the natural ability to score are of value, I would agree with Beans and Joshua, they should not be one of the top-10 paid players in the NHL, because when all you do is score, its very difficult to live up to the deal. If a guy on my team is making 8M a year, and all he can do is score, I'm not satisfied unless he's at the 40g/100pt mark every season... Kessel has hit neither of those marks yet - I guess time will tell if he can.



This is just wrong, plain 'ol incorrect.

1) He just scores, period.
True, he does score a lot . . . and he also does a lot of playmaking. Playing almost entirely in his Toronto career with Bozak - a second line centre at best - and a parade of other wingers who have all been basically solid second liners save for Lupul, he has put up these assist totals:
Last Year: 32 (T14th)
2011/12: 45 (T21st)
2010/11: 32 (T79th)

That's the last three years, where he has dramatically improved/increased his numbers each season.

And ask anybody who watches a lot of Leaf games . . . Kessel is the best player on the ice more than half the games in the season, he controls/dictates the play. Which is the sign of any great player.

2) He is not physical, he does not play a strong defensive game.

True, he is not very physical at all - he does get into it more and more now, but certainly on the other side of physical. So are a lot of other wingers (see: Patrick Kane).

And to defence . . . it's not stellar, no; but it's certainly not subpar at all among top 20 wingers.

3) I know that he's pretty streaky.

I went through this on another topic thread I know, where I completely disproved this with someone else commenting the same thing . . . and it's funny how much people just repeat what a commentator said, or don't do the actual research and look at his compareables.

Bottom line - if you don't believe me, do your own research (and show me!), but Kessel is actually EXTREMELY consistent among the top goalscorers . . . exceptionally so. He is actually top three in consistency, which makes him such a sure bet in fantasy hockey pools! He doesn't get injured (knock on wood); he ALWAYS gets his 30 goals; and he has been a perrenially improving player points-wise.

4) "If a guy on my team is making 8M a year, and all he can do is score, I'm not satisfied unless he's at the 40g/100pt mark every season... "

Wow. Just . . . wow.

Please name me all the players making 8M or more a season, and then name me all those players who have consistently gotten close to 40 goals/100 points a year . . . Just for the last two years even (extrapolating for last year's half season), give me the names.

This is where we come to consistency, no?

Kessel is a guarantee to hit 30 goals and 80 points statistically speaking . . . which makes him a top ten player for points IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE and a top 10 player IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE for goals. And top 20 or so for assists.

Bottom line,
He is a great player, and he's getting market value for that. Do I think that the Leafs management could have gotten him for a shade under 8M? Perhaps, but . . . it IS market value.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
slozo Posted - 10/01/2013 : 10:38:06
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

Let me be the first to say that I think this is a too high of a contract for anyone other than then top 3 players in each position. I look at guys like Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos or Doughty, Weber, and Keith and think this would make sense.

Personally, I think this is a mistake for the Leafs for a few reasons. Firstly, an 8 yr committment is a long, long time. Secondly, an all due respect to Kessel and his rabid fans, but the guy has not scored 40 goals and has been a PPG for only the past 100ish games. To give him top 10 in the NHL money for his position is a lot.

I would have less issue if this was an $8 million deal for 4 years or a $6 million deal for 8 yrs but the combination of money and term is a big, big committment.

Don't get me wrong, there are far worse deals out there and this isn't super duper crazy. I'm just not convinced that Kessel is at the elite level to deserve this kind of jack.

Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!





I see . . . I didn't realise that Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Weber, Doughty and Keith were wingers.

OH, RIGHT . . . they're not.

So please point out the wingers who are ahead of Kessel, or at least his compareables, and let us know again how Kessel is not top three in his position?

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
nuxfan Posted - 10/01/2013 : 09:50:22
the main problem I have with Kessel is that he is a very uni-dimensional player. He scores, period. He is not physical, he does not play a strong defensive game. Having owned him in hockey pools the last couple of years, I know that he's pretty streaky.

While players that have the natural ability to score are of value, I would agree with Beans and Joshua, they should not be one of the top-10 paid players in the NHL, because when all you do is score, its very difficult to live up to the deal. If a guy on my team is making 8M a year, and all he can do is score, I'm not satisfied unless he's at the 40g/100pt mark every season... Kessel has hit neither of those marks yet - I guess time will tell if he can.
JOSHUACANADA Posted - 10/01/2013 : 09:29:46
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

Let me be the first to say that I think this is a too high of a contract for anyone other than then top 3 players in each position. I look at guys like Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos or Doughty, Weber, and Keith and think this would make sense.

Personally, I think this is a mistake for the Leafs for a few reasons. Firstly, an 8 yr committment is a long, long time. Secondly, an all due respect to Kessel and his rabid fans, but the guy has not scored 40 goals and has been a PPG for only the past 100ish games. To give him top 10 in the NHL money for his position is a lot.

I would have less issue if this was an $8 million deal for 4 years or a $6 million deal for 8 yrs but the combination of money and term is a big, big committment.

Don't get me wrong, there are far worse deals out there and this isn't super duper crazy. I'm just not convinced that Kessel is at the elite level to deserve this kind of jack.

Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!



Didn't see this response prior to posting my last. Although I agree he shouldn't be in the top 10 pay, he is in the top 10 for goals scored in the last few years. But again, give it 2 or 3 years and this will no longer be top 10 pay. This is a sign of future contracts. The CBA has had little effect on top tier level contract values.
JOSHUACANADA Posted - 10/01/2013 : 09:26:35
Sure ends the debate on whether he is a $7-7.5 million a year player and if Toronto could find the money under the new cap to keep him. There were a few suggestions he wouldn't be signed at $7, let alone the $8 he is reportedly close to signing for. I don't know if $8 is the right number for him, but it doesn't sound like a hometown discount. One could argue he is not worth that much in comparison to other signed contracts, but I think this is a sign of future contracts to come. Spezza, Toews and Kane will be eying this contract for certain coming into seasons close to UFA status.
Beans15 Posted - 10/01/2013 : 09:20:43
Let me be the first to say that I think this is a too high of a contract for anyone other than then top 3 players in each position. I look at guys like Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos or Doughty, Weber, and Keith and think this would make sense.

Personally, I think this is a mistake for the Leafs for a few reasons. Firstly, an 8 yr committment is a long, long time. Secondly, an all due respect to Kessel and his rabid fans, but the guy has not scored 40 goals and has been a PPG for only the past 100ish games. To give him top 10 in the NHL money for his position is a lot.

I would have less issue if this was an $8 million deal for 4 years or a $6 million deal for 8 yrs but the combination of money and term is a big, big committment.

Don't get me wrong, there are far worse deals out there and this isn't super duper crazy. I'm just not convinced that Kessel is at the elite level to deserve this kind of jack.

Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!

The_Gipper Posted - 10/01/2013 : 08:50:46
no longer a pending UFA, as he's reportedly agreed to an 8 year, $64M extension. announcement expected to be made sometime today.
so now let the debate start as to whether or not Phil Kessel is worth $8M per season....
JOSHUACANADA Posted - 09/05/2013 : 17:49:02
All kinds of fun being had at Crocks expense here Alex! Just in case he don't bite, I got a Clarkson for Ryan stats bet he might wanna take.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
Alex116 Posted - 09/05/2013 : 16:47:47
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

Ahhh... Phil Kessel.

Guys, who cares? We all know that he'll get 7-7.5 million over 4-5 years. He'll stay in Toronto. Whatever. What's the discussion here?

The question is - IS KESSEL BETTER THAN TYLER SEGUIN??


...And the answer, is a resounding "yes".


But, thank you for coming out everyone. Thank you. Would anyone like to join a Pool with me where I get Kessel, and you get Seguin??



Sure, cuz you'd be so giddy over getting your mancrush fulfilled that you'd prob then take Clarkson over Crosby, Lupul over Malkin and Phaneuf over Karlsson......
CrockOShight Posted - 09/05/2013 : 16:34:28
Ahhh... Phil Kessel.

Guys, who cares? We all know that he'll get 7-7.5 million over 4-5 years. He'll stay in Toronto. Whatever. What's the discussion here?

The question is - IS KESSEL BETTER THAN TYLER SEGUIN??


...And the answer, is a resounding "yes".


But, thank you for coming out everyone. Thank you. Would anyone like to join a Pool with me where I get Kessel, and you get Seguin??
Alex116 Posted - 08/30/2013 : 16:43:31
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15


That's my point. We can argue over a few dollars here and there but I think we are pretty close to agreeing on the fundamental argument that TO can not afford to pay Kessel huge money.


IF Toronto cannot afford to pay Kessel huge money, it's only because of foolish spending elsewhere (cough, cough, Clarkson, cough, cough). I agree that Toews is in a class of his own compared to Kane and Kessel, but those two are a toss up and in fact, i'd prob lean to Kessel if i had to pick one. Getting back to Kessel, how can this guy not command 7M+ after the past few years (before "hometown discount", if he so chooses to stick in TO)?

JOSHUACANADA Posted - 08/30/2013 : 12:26:19
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

What ever Nuxfan, we are splitting hairs. I see your point and I know that LA had one player at $7 million and one very close to my supposid arbitrary number.

The point hold true that teams with balance spended have a likelihood to remain competative for longer.

That's my point. We can argue over a few dollars here and there but I think we are pretty close to agreeing on the fundamental argument that TO can not afford to pay Kessel huge money.


Secondly, Clarkson's deal is terrible. It will eventually come out to be one of the worst deals in the past 10 years, right up there with guys like Horcoff. You can't compare Clarkson's deal to anyone. As for players. I agree that Kane and Kessel are that similar one-dimensional scoring forwards. Toews is in another ballpark all together based on everything else he brings to the table.

Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!



Whether or not Clarkson is a bad signing or not, if you split hairs between those 2 contracts and not offer Kessel his value, why would he sign when you clearly had the money to overpay the less valuable player to your business.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
Beans15 Posted - 08/30/2013 : 10:50:28
What ever Nuxfan, we are splitting hairs. I see your point and I know that LA had one player at $7 million and one very close to my supposid arbitrary number.

The point hold true that teams with balance spended have a likelihood to remain competative for longer.

That's my point. We can argue over a few dollars here and there but I think we are pretty close to agreeing on the fundamental argument that TO can not afford to pay Kessel huge money.


Secondly, Clarkson's deal is terrible. It will eventually come out to be one of the worst deals in the past 10 years, right up there with guys like Horcoff. You can't compare Clarkson's deal to anyone. As for players. I agree that Kane and Kessel are that similar one-dimensional scoring forwards. Toews is in another ballpark all together based on everything else he brings to the table.

Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!

JOSHUACANADA Posted - 08/30/2013 : 09:42:09
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan

quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

Would you compare the value of Kessel to that of Toews and Kane? Outside of the Stanely cup wins most would put a similar value to these guys. Toews and Kane might take a hometown discount, such as in 2010, but they are older and more established today and a home town discount today will still be larger than there 2010 signing. I don't think they sign in 2013 for the value they did in 2010 and neither should Kessel. For the record I'd pay more for Toews or Kane than Kessel, but I may be in the minority on that.

Hate comparing Kessel to players of this stature because these are some of the best in the game, but that is how he is seen in the NHL. I'd rather compare him to 4/5th of Malkin who is actually in the Elite of the league, because both are offensive players, but neither is elite 2way players. 4/5 of Malkin's $9 million is $7.2 million.




Kane and Kessel, there are similarities... but Kessel == Toews? Are you nuts?!?! There is more than "a couple of cups" separating these two players. I would put Toews in the top-10 non-goalie players in the NHL today. I think you would find yourself in the vast majority paying Toews more than Kessel.

Kessel == 4/5 of a Malkin? I'm not sure how to even think about that. But again, Kessel and Malkin are in different universes of hockey ability, its very difficult for me to see any team taking Kessel over Malkin, if both were to become available, even with a 2M salary gap. I think most teams would move heaven and earth to make room for a Malkin.

Hey I agree, I don't think Kessel belongs in the conversation with these guys. I agree Toews would be my pick in a heartbeat, same with Malkin, but as far as Toronto goes, he is there franchise player. he will get paid based on stats and importance to the franchise. Right now he is the most important player to Toronto's success. But if I was gonna go on pure goal scoring ability I do think Kessel is a better goalscorer than Kane or Toews.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
nuxfan Posted - 08/30/2013 : 09:29:55
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15 last night
But that again proves my point. The successful teams are getting value from their contracts and not paying over $6.5 with the current economic factors.



quote:
Originally posted by Beans15 this morning
none of those teams had more than a couple of players over that number and in most cases they had guys that we very close



This is what makes your number arbitrary. You cannot have a "rule" that is broken by 4 examples out of 6, and still claim it is a "rule". You cannot point at 4 out of 6 examples as "outliers" - if 4 out of 6 show something, its more likely that the other 2 out of 6 are outliers.

Even if a Stanley Cup is not your only measure of success, there are a lot of examples of "successful" teams paying contracts over 6.5M - PHI, NYR, DET, LAK, SJ, NJ have all enjoyed above average success in recent years, all have more than 1 player earning 6.5 or higher on their roster.

It all comes down to the players earning the money. Some players are worth their 6.5 or greater contracts, others are not. Teams that succeed with those contracts are just paying the right people that kind of money. Period.
nuxfan Posted - 08/30/2013 : 09:13:58
quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

Would you compare the value of Kessel to that of Toews and Kane? Outside of the Stanely cup wins most would put a similar value to these guys. Toews and Kane might take a hometown discount, such as in 2010, but they are older and more established today and a home town discount today will still be larger than there 2010 signing. I don't think they sign in 2013 for the value they did in 2010 and neither should Kessel. For the record I'd pay more for Toews or Kane than Kessel, but I may be in the minority on that.

Hate comparing Kessel to players of this stature because these are some of the best in the game, but that is how he is seen in the NHL. I'd rather compare him to 4/5th of Malkin who is actually in the Elite of the league, because both are offensive players, but neither is elite 2way players. 4/5 of Malkin's $9 million is $7.2 million.




Kane and Kessel, there are similarities... but Kessel == Toews? Are you nuts?!?! There is more than "a couple of cups" separating these two players. I would put Toews in the top-10 non-goalie players in the NHL today. I think you would find yourself in the vast majority paying Toews more than Kessel.

Kessel == 4/5 of a Malkin? I'm not sure how to even think about that. But again, Kessel and Malkin are in different universes of hockey ability, its very difficult for me to see any team taking Kessel over Malkin, if both were to become available, even with a 2M salary gap. I think most teams would move heaven and earth to make room for a Malkin.
JOSHUACANADA Posted - 08/30/2013 : 08:43:03
Would you compare the value of Kessel to that of Toews and Kane? Outside of the Stanely cup wins most would put a similar value to these guys. Toews and Kane might take a hometown discount, such as in 2010, but they are older and more established today and a home town discount today will still be larger than there 2010 signing. I don't think they sign in 2013 for the value they did in 2010 and neither should Kessel. For the record I'd pay more for Toews or Kane than Kessel, but I may be in the minority on that.

Hate comparing Kessel to players of this stature because these are some of the best in the game, but that is how he is seen in the NHL. I'd rather compare him to 4/5th of Malkin who is actually in the Elite of the league, because both are offensive players, but neither is elite 2way players. 4/5 of Malkin's $9 million is $7.2 million.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
JOSHUACANADA Posted - 08/30/2013 : 08:25:40
Then again if you look at the Clarkson signing and compare it to Kessel you would assume Kessel is worth much more to this franchise. If Clarkson is worth $5.25 to Toronto with one season over 40 points and 7 averaging 30 points, Kessel with his elite status and points between 70-80 points should be worth millions more. If I start calling Kessel elite does that mean the Kessel trade debate starts again.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
Beans15 Posted - 08/30/2013 : 00:28:18
Yep, and a 100 - 1 horse CAN win a race too. Doesn't mean it's likely and it doesn't mean it proves that every 100 - 1 horse will win races after that.

There are expections to every rule but even looking at your examples that apparently prove me wrong, none of those teams had more than a couple of players over that number and in most cases they had guys that we very close. Pitt is an unusual exception as they have arguably the 2 best players in hockey today. They are going to get paid.

Generally speaking, success has come to the teams with a more balanced spend and those teams with the monster deals are generally feast or famine teams without successful longevity. I think of the Phillys, New Yorks, and New Jersey's of the NHL. Other teams, like Detroit, Boston, Chicago, Vancouver, Los Angeles have a more balanced spend. Sure, they might have a few players that are over that magic number but not many and not by much.

Looking back to the point at hand, Toronto appears to be trending to be a balance spending team. Only Phaneuf is over $6 mil/season and most of their top talented players are in that $5-$6 million pocket. Another reason why I don't think TO can spend more than $6.5 and $7 on the outside is they have only 10 players signed pasted this season and $34 million committed. That means 13 players need to be signed with around $33 million. Take $7 off for Kessel and that leaves $24 million to sign 12 players. That's not a stretch but they also have to fill Phaneuf's spot and Gardiner will be out of his EL deal.



Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!

nuxfan Posted - 08/29/2013 : 23:17:43
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Nux, I agree completely that the hawks are getting fantastic value of their two bog contracts as well as they will likely have challenges to keep that team together for the same dollar values. But that again proves my point. The successful teams are getting value from their contracts and not paying over $6.5 with the current economic factors. To Joshua's point, that $6.5 might be $7 when the cap increases. It's not arbitrary.



I still disagree with your arbitrary 6.5M cap for players. CHI certainly proves your point, however you only have to look at every other year that CHI didn't win in the last 5 or 6, and it is disproven:

- LA (2012): Kopitar @ 6.8, Doughty @ 7M.
- BOS (2011): Chara @ 7.5M
- PIT (2009): Crosby @ 9M, Malkin @ 9M
- DET (2008): Datsyuk @ 6.7M, Lidstrom @ 7.6M

I agree that a well balanced team has more chance of success, and looking at teams that have been successful over the last 5 years, the majority of them are fairly well balanced. But teams CAN win with contracts over 6.5M. It just depends on the player earning the contract, and whether or not they're truly earning it.
Beans15 Posted - 08/29/2013 : 20:11:31
The year that Kane and Toews signed for $6.3 each was 10/11. The salary cap was almost the exact same number it is is today. Those how see it as irrelevant are simple not seeing reality. Sorry but a deal for $6 million 3 years ago when the cap was $64 million is the same as a $6 million deal today with the salary cap at $64 million. Historic deals become irrelevant in the years the cap was less than or greater than the cap today.

Nux, I agree completely that the hawks are getting fantastic value of their two bog contracts as well as they will likely have challenges to keep that team together for the same dollar values. But that again proves my point. The successful teams are getting value from their contracts and not paying over $6.5 with the current economic factors. To Joshua's point, that $6.5 might be $7 when the cap increases. It's not arbitrary.



Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!

JOSHUACANADA Posted - 08/29/2013 : 19:07:00
While I agree, when they have to up the pay for these guys I assume the cap should also rise to accommodate the extra salary. The teams in a pinch now could find the extra room for the $7 million dollar players. And that is really my argument. A $6 million dollar player signed 3, 4 or 5 years ago if signed now is worth more. Cant use a contract value from many years ago to put a value on Kessel.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
nuxfan Posted - 08/29/2013 : 18:18:48
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Secondly, Chicago is the perfect example of my point. Thank you Nux! If you read my post, the exact comment I made was:

Teams just can't afford to sign players to deals bigger than $6-$6.5 million/yr.

Chicago do not have a single player making more than $6.5 and only 2 making more than $6 million. Isn't that exactly what I said? Not only that, but look at the players that team has lost by bumping up to that magic ceiling? Campbell, Neimi, Brouwer, Bolland, Versteeg, Byfuglien, and Ladd just to name a few.

I would argue that the reason they were able to replenish the cupboards if you will is because they didn't sign their players to deals with cap hitsin excess of $6.5 million/year.




I would argue that CHI is getting exceptionally good value for their two 6M+ players, and in fact for their other players making close to 6M. Other teams do not, and that is the main differential between success and failure.

I don't think your arbitrary max salary of 6.5 for success carries much weight. CHI would be just as successful if Toews were making 7M instead of 6.3. The fact that he has taken less is great, but not critical for the success of the team.

quote:

Trust me when I say Chicago will not be able to keep at the $ limit he suggested, but will likely still be able to compete by adjusting the supporting cast



I personally think CHI is going to have a very difficult time after next season, unless the cap goes up by a substantial amount. Saad and Shaw coming off EL deals, Hjalmarsson coming up UFA, and most importantly Crawford coming up UFA. Something will very likely give next summer.
JOSHUACANADA Posted - 08/29/2013 : 17:13:57
I pointed out his being wrong, as he is referring to contracts signed years ago and transposing them to an upcoming signing of players of Kessel's calibre. Trust me when I say Chicago will not be able to keep at the $ limit he suggested, but will likely still be able to compete by adjusting the supporting cast.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
Alex116 Posted - 08/29/2013 : 16:16:23
quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA
2 cups in 3 years with a rotating cast of supporting players says your wrong again. Wait till Crawford, Seabrook, Toews and Kane resign, bet they fetch above that $7 million ceiling




Joshua, i'm trying to stay out of these disputes you and Beans are having, but in this case, how is he wrong? I read his response earlier (his last post) and i have to give him credit, he had a pretty good comeback. Now, pointing out that Crawford, Seabrook, Toews and Kane will all fetch above that 7M ceiling is fine, but we'd have to wait and see if they can get enough supporting cast signed this time to keep a team which can continue to compete for the cup? At that point, you can claim he was wrong if they in fact win another cup, but until then.......
JOSHUACANADA Posted - 08/29/2013 : 15:59:32
For the record not related to anything but Kessel, he is worth above $7 million on the market, but will he sign for less to play in Toronto? It depends on whether Toronto is where he wants to stay. If he wants to challenge for a cup with his buddy Bozak, he will sign sub $7 million, if he doesn't care about being a team player in Toronto, look for him to demand $7 million or better, which he should receive on the open market at his age and skill set.

Its not like he is a 40 point player, with injury history in the twilight of his career.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "

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