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Guest5744
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Posted - 02/03/2012 :  06:41:15  Reply with Quote
With Sam Gagner having a stellar night (4 goals, 4 assists) against the blackhawks do you think he is safe from trade or simply heightened his value?

Guest5744
( )

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  06:43:58  Reply with Quote
personally i would have thought the oilers to be dumb to trade a good young two way player even before his performance last night. lets be honest gagner is probably at best a ppg player in his prime in the NHL but his defensive ability, playmaking, and shootout moves are what i see as great. however, the oiler may get an offer they can not refuse. it would take a first rounder and a prospect to get gagner IMO and even before last night i would rate gagner a much more valuable player than hemsky.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4514 Posts

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  07:07:37  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
He's a talented player with below average stats who had a great night. Funny, I was going to make a post about this very thing, as I learned about his historic night . . . and knowing he had been bandied about in many a trade rumour. Between him and Hemsky, someone was moving!

Looks like Hemsky is a lock now!

Seriously . . . how DO the Oil trade Gagner now? With the hype and excitement and especially PROMISE OF THINGS TO COME that an 8 point night brings . . . how do you deal the guy?

On the other hand . . . can one night instantly boost your value? I'd have to say emphatically YES at this point.

But I think the Oil management will stay put with Gagner now, from a PR and fan perspective, and from the perspective of not wanting to look like they are dealing away what may be elite talent in the near future.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8153 Posts

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  07:24:10  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Let's make sure we are putting things in a clear perspective:

Gagner had 4 goal last night.
Gagner had 5 goals in his previous 43 games.
Gagner has 1 pt in his previous 8 games prior to last night.
One great night (regardless of how great of a night it was) does not a player make.

When the Oilers are healthy, Gagner is often the odd man out in the race to be a top 6 forward for the Oilers. He is behind RNH, Hall, Eberle, Hemsky, Horcoff, and Smyth/Jones(in that order). That being said, he is the first guy to hop into the top 6 group if there is an injury.

I would assume they will keep Gagner and move Hemsky. It's logical as Hemsky is 5 yrs older and UFA compared to Gagner being an RFA.
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ryan93
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
904 Posts

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  07:27:23  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I know he played with the big boys last night..but when RNH is in the line-up, who are Gagner's usual line-mates?

I have no idea if the Oilers are looking to move Ganger or not, but if they are, surely their asking price went up a little after last nights performance :) It might be in the Oilers best interest if they were to split the top line up to create 2 dangerous offensive lines. Pair RNH with either Hall/Eberle, and Gagner with the other. Similar to what the Rangers have done this season with Gaborik/Stepan & Richards/Callahan.

I know, last night was only one game, but I've always been a fan of Gagner. The kid still has loads of unreached potential.

Edited by - ryan93 on 02/03/2012 07:28:34
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8153 Posts

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  07:31:29  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Generally speaking, when healthy the Oiler lines are:

Eberle - NRH - Hall
Hemsky - Horcoff - Smyth
Gagner - Belanger - Jones
Eager - Lander - Petrell

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Guest5744
( )

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  08:27:08  Reply with Quote
i love jones' game but lets be honest he isn't top 6 forward material
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3562 Posts

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  09:33:21  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
One great night (regardless of how great of a night it was) does not a player make.



this pretty much sums it up. I don't think his overall value has gone up either, and any trade made today would probably bring the same as it would have yesterday. I can't imagine that the long term plans for the Oilers have changed based on a single great night, if the right deal comes along then he'll go.

One thing that it might have shown though - if put into the right position with the right players, perhaps Gagner can elevate his game to something more than it is right now in Edmonton.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5689 Posts

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  09:39:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I couldn't agree more (with nuxfan). I don't think one night does anything to his trade value. If anything, it may make the Oilers decide to hang onto him but as Beans said, he often seems to be the odd man out and maybe they'd be better packaging him with someone else to bring back some d help in return?

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sahis34
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
573 Posts

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  14:55:49  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I wasn't in favour of trading him before.
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K73
Top Prospect



20 Posts

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  16:49:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Ignoring any fluctuations in value caused by his performance, I think Gagner has solidified his place on the Oilers for the immediate future due to the fact that trading him now would be a PR disaster. He's been a fan favourite since joining the Oilers, and last night turned him into a hero, however short-lived.

Edited by - K73 on 02/03/2012 16:50:26
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Guest0959
( )

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  22:25:52  Reply with Quote
quote:
sahis34 Posted - 02/03/2012 : 14:55:49 I wasn't in favour of trading him before.


Thank for that totally relevant statement. Almost as relevant as your assessment of Thornton hitting (was Perron?)'s in the neck.

Absolutely brilliant.

The question was about current trade situation of Gagner.

And, I think that Gagner will not be traded until his jerseys aren't selling like hotcakes in the Oilers shops.
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fat_elvis_rocked
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
899 Posts

Posted - 02/03/2012 :  22:49:04  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hmmm, refer to a relevant statement as irrelevant, while bringing up a previous post totally irrelevant to the thread that one accuses another of not being relevent in.....I think I just made up a tongue twister, try it!

I got your neck.....errr , back I mean Sahis!!
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sahis34
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
573 Posts

Posted - 02/04/2012 :  13:42:23  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest0959

quote:
sahis34 Posted - 02/03/2012 : 14:55:49 I wasn't in favour of trading him before.


Thank for that totally relevant statement. Almost as relevant as your assessment of Thornton hitting (was Perron?)'s in the neck.

Absolutely brilliant.

The question was about current trade situation of Gagner.

And, I think that Gagner will not be traded until his jerseys aren't selling like hotcakes in the Oilers shops.



Go **** yourself
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Guest4377
( )

Posted - 03/28/2013 :  21:56:27  Reply with Quote
It's interesting how Gagner was viewed a year ago, even after getting 8 points in one game.

Skipping ahead to today, Gagner has 31 points in 33 games, and who saw it coming?

Some did, but some did not. Some considered Gagner a 3rd line forward.

Fair enough, but when viewing a player (like NHL scouts and GMs do), you have to look at a player's upside (or downside) not just for their current production, but more importantly, how they will perform in future years.

For those who viewed Gagner with limited value or upside a year ago (or to some extent
today), your viewpoint is understandable, but were other factors considered? Factors like age, ice time, power play time, linemates, strength and growth, and most importantly, watching him play. Gagner has always shown a high level of compete, so to me, his performance this season is no surprise.

It's easy to look at what a player has done at any point of their career (and assess their value on this alone), but when looking at trade value, you have to project the future to a certain extent.

Genetics even makes a difference. Not every former NHLer delivers a similarly talented player offspring, but when a player like Gagner shows talent and promise, one should look at when his dad (Dave) peaked as an NHL player.

As for size (and strength), take a look at Marty St. Louis amongst many examples. St. Louis barely played an NHL game at the same age as Gagner's current age. (And was waived by the Flames two years later at 25 years of age.) Both players were/are considered small, but both players started smaller (about 20 pounds lighter), and got stronger.

I thought Gagner's upside was huge last year at this time, and I believe so today. In my opinion, he will be a point a game player for years to come.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4514 Posts

Posted - 03/30/2013 :  10:49:24  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
31 pts in 33 games tells you he's a point a game player now.

It's a shortened "half" a season. It's 33 games. Get a grip.

Seriously.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3562 Posts

Posted - 03/30/2013 :  11:18:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by slozo

31 pts in 33 games tells you he's a point a game player now.

It's a shortened "half" a season. It's 33 games. Get a grip.

Seriously.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug



Funny, I don't hear the same sentiment from most Leafs fans regarding Kadri, even though he seems to have gone from busted prospect to can't-miss-future-star in the same 33 games...

Gagner looks to be finally blossoming into the solid centre that EDM wanted him to become. Not only do I see him staying in EDM with a new deal... the question for me is, what does that do to Horcoff? 5.5M cap hit is a bit steep for a 3rd line centre...
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sahis34
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
573 Posts

Posted - 03/30/2013 :  11:22:16  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan

quote:
Originally posted by slozo

31 pts in 33 games tells you he's a point a game player now.

It's a shortened "half" a season. It's 33 games. Get a grip.

Seriously.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug



Funny, I don't hear the same sentiment from most Leafs fans regarding Kadri, even though he seems to have gone from busted prospect to can't-miss-future-star in the same 33 games...

Gagner looks to be finally blossoming into the solid centre that EDM wanted him to become. Not only do I see him staying in EDM with a new deal... the question for me is, what does that do to Horcoff? 5.5M cap hit is a bit steep for a 3rd line centre...




People in edmonton have been complaining about horcoff for years cause of his contact, the oilers won't need the cap space till his contract ends anyway and horcoff's still a usefull player so they probably wont do anything with him.
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Guest4377
( )

Posted - 03/30/2013 :  13:57:41  Reply with Quote
Slozo - you're missing my point. Perhaps deliberately?

I'm not using Gagner's success this season (alone) to make my prediction on his future success.

I stated on this forum (and prior to this season) that Sam Gagner was about to become a point a game player in the NHL.

And skipping ahead to today, he is beginning to prove so, ahead of most people's projections or expectations.

But my prediction was not just for this season. It was and is a prediction for the next number of seasons.

And while his success this season is a good indicator, my prediction is more due to other factors/reasons which I noted earlier: age, ice time, power play time, linemates, improved strength and training, etc.

Alex makes a good point. Nazem Kadri was a maligned and criticized player for the Leafs the last two seasons. Who would have predicted his success this season (35 points in 35 games thus far). For those who did, kudos to them. More importantly, good for the Leafs (and Leaf fans) to not give up on him.

But the question remains. Is this a blip for both players? I don't profess to know, but I believe Gagner will continue to improve, and be a point a game player for many future years.

As for Kadri, I don't watch him play anywhere near as much as I see Gagner play, so I will defer to others (Leaf fans in particular) to offer their opinions.

But any hockey fan will tell you that Kadri looks pretty good right now, and while 35 games is not a full season, it's not an insignificant number of games to make an assessment on a given hockey player (or team).

To claim otherwise is kinda like saying the Penguins or Hawks look very good right now, but big deal, it's only 2/3 of a shortened season! :)
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5689 Posts

Posted - 03/30/2013 :  15:58:29  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by slozo

31 pts in 33 games tells you he's a point a game player now.

It's a shortened "half" a season. It's 33 games. Get a grip.

Seriously.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug



Wow! Tough crowd. With that kind of attitude, i bet you the Easter Bunny isn't good to you tomorrow.

Guest4377 - While i'd love to take credit for the excellent comments and comparisons to Kadri, it was Nuxfan. Get a grip!
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
2240 Posts

Posted - 03/30/2013 :  16:12:08  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by slozo

31 pts in 33 games tells you he's a point a game player now.

It's a shortened "half" a season. It's 33 games. Get a grip.

Seriously.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug



I won't do the research but i wonder Gagner has been known to get hot for extended periods of time i wonder if he has ever been a PPG player in the pas for 30 games I wouldn't be suprised if the answer is yes,

Hello, 911? It's an emergency, my teddy bear's been kidnapped!
[pause] Hello? Hello?
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Guest4377
( )

Posted - 03/30/2013 :  17:14:08  Reply with Quote
Fair point Pasty, but to answer your question, I don't think so. In tallying between 41-47 points each of the past five seasons, Gagner has averaged .60 points per game, so to do what you're suggesting would be very unlikely. His past inconsistency was that he would go hot for 4 or 5 games, then go cold the next 4-5 games.

There doesn't appear to be any long stretch (30 games for example) where Gagner averaged a point per game.

But once again, my future projections for Gagner are not soley (or significantly) based on his success this season. But his performance this season is noteworthy.

As an aside, my apologies to Nuxfan for giving credit to Alex for his comments on Kadri.
I blame the Canucks avatars! :)

Gotta go. After watching the first period of the Leafs-Sens game (Kadri continues to look good), I'm off to see the Oilers-Canucks matchup. I suspect I will get the Sedin twins mixed up! :)
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4514 Posts

Posted - 04/01/2013 :  09:48:09  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4377

Slozo - you're missing my point. Perhaps deliberately?

I'm not using Gagner's success this season (alone) to make my prediction on his future success.

I stated on this forum (and prior to this season) that Sam Gagner was about to become a point a game player in the NHL.

And skipping ahead to today, he is beginning to prove so, ahead of most people's projections or expectations.

But my prediction was not just for this season. It was and is a prediction for the next number of seasons.

And while his success this season is a good indicator, my prediction is more due to other factors/reasons which I noted earlier: age, ice time, power play time, linemates, improved strength and training, etc.

Alex makes a good point. Nazem Kadri was a maligned and criticized player for the Leafs the last two seasons. Who would have predicted his success this season (35 points in 35 games thus far). For those who did, kudos to them. More importantly, good for the Leafs (and Leaf fans) to not give up on him.

But the question remains. Is this a blip for both players? I don't profess to know, but I believe Gagner will continue to improve, and be a point a game player for many future years.

As for Kadri, I don't watch him play anywhere near as much as I see Gagner play, so I will defer to others (Leaf fans in particular) to offer their opinions.

But any hockey fan will tell you that Kadri looks pretty good right now, and while 35 games is not a full season, it's not an insignificant number of games to make an assessment on a given hockey player (or team).

To claim otherwise is kinda like saying the Penguins or Hawks look very good right now, but big deal, it's only 2/3 of a shortened season! :)



Where to begin.

How Gagner can be AHEAD of anyone's expectations to become a ppg player is beyond me . . . as if it's normal for an NHL player to have between 41-49 points in 5 straight seasons, then suddenly get hot in that 6th season and score 31 pts in 34 games.

Oh wait - that's the catch, isn't it? It's just 34 games, will become a 48 game stretch (depending on if he stays healthy), not even a full season because of the circumstances.

Riiiiiiight.
So WAY ahead of expectations for a guy drafted 6th overall with supposed top end offensive talent, after having played 5 seasons in relative mediocrity save for that 1 game last year.

Oh yeah, that's way ahead of schedule!

And then you dare to compare him with a player who for the first time this season has become a starting lineup player in this shortened season? A player who is absolutely on fire and 6th in points in his breakout year?

Nazem Kadri just played in his 36th game this year, which is 7 more games than his career high in the NHL 2 years ago. Not by any stretch of anyone's imagination have we any kind of decent sample size to determine what we should expect from Kadri going forward, but I'll tell you this much - Kadri will be first on my list to get picked from the group of unprotected players in my draft pool; Gagner will be a few dozen spots down from that for sure.

Gagner's stats at this point look like an upward blip.
Kadri's is a late blooming breakout, with superstar potential / ppg player potential.

It's totally different, dude.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Guest4377
( )

Posted - 04/01/2013 :  14:31:42  Reply with Quote
Missed the point (again) Slozo.

First of all, I didn't introduce Kadri's name or stats in my original posting. Someone else did.

How "dare I compare" Kadri to Gagner?  I'm not comparing Gagner to Kadri.  I commented that Kadri is playing very well.  (Even though it's only 2/3 of a shortened season, which suddenly has significance in your point of view.)  

As for being "way ahead of expectations," my comments (as you probably know) were NOT in context to where he was drafted six years ago.  My comments were in context to what people thought about Gagner a year ago, or just prior to the beginning of this season.  So I'm not sure what you mean by "way ahead of schedule?"  

My point is who picked Gagner to do so well this season?  Especially with his mediocre performance the past five seasons.  Do you seriously believe that Gagner is NOT playing AHEAD of people's expectations of him THIS season?  If he only tallied 41-48 points the past five seasons, most people thought he would perform about the same, or maybe a bit better, but who thought he would go from .60 ppg to .90 ppg?  That's playing AHEAD of expectations in anyone's books!

You think Gagner's performance this season is an "upward blip."  I'm curious to see what you think his points production will be over the next 4-5 seasons?  Back down to 41-48 points for Gagner?

In listing the various criteria I used to determine Gagner's future production, age was one of those factors.  (Amongst may things.) Most people would be surprised to know that Gagner is only a year older than Nazem Kadri (once again, I'm NOT comparing Gagner to the "superstar potential" Kadri – I'm just providing context), and while one can say that Gagner has more NHL experience than most other 23 year old players, this does not necessarily change when he will peak as an NHL player.  Whether a player plays 100 games or 400 games (like Gagner has) by the age of 23 does not change a player's peak ascension.  (Except in examples of superstar players, who show peak performance earlier, and more sustained, than average or good NHL players.)

Interestingly, only one NHL player (superstar Patrick Kane) has more points than Gagner from the 2007 draft year onwards.  (To be clear, I'm NOT comparing Gagner to Patrick Kane.  Merely providing context.)

And aside from Kane, only two players from the 2006 draft year forward (one year prior to Gagner's draft year) have played more NHL games:  Nicklas Backstrom and Phil Kessel.  (Once again, context NOT comparisons between these two players.)

While one could state that more should be expected of Gagner because of his 400 NHL games played, one could make an argument that he would be in the same place today (or better) if he took the slower developmental route.  If, for example, Gagner stayed with the London Knights for another junior season, and played in the AHL for 3-4 seasons), he could have conceivably flourished in those leagues, and jumped into the NHL at 21 or 22 years of age instead of 18.

But if you believe Gagner's growth would have been stifled by "playing down," one has to recognize that he didn't light the league on fire in his first five NHL seasons.

I think his development was eventual, even if not immediate.

Fair enough if you think his performance this season is a "blip," but I suspect the Oilers see him differently today, than they did a year ago.  (And so do other NHL teams.)  Gagner will be an RFA after this season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Oilers lock up Gagner long term.  (Unless another team offers up a significant player with a similar upside.)
  
And I'm betting Gagner's next contract is reflective of his improved play, and expectations that he will continue to improve. (And predictably, arm-chair critics will comment that he's overpaid, and hasn't proven anything yet.)

We will soon know Gagner's "contract value," but it will be many years before we know if Gagner will be a point a game player for the next 5-7 seasons.

We will probably have a better idea in the next 2-3 years, so let's check back in 2015-16!
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4514 Posts

Posted - 04/02/2013 :  10:38:37  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
How "dare I compare" Kadri to Gagner? I'm not comparing Gagner to Kadri. I commented that Kadri is playing very well. (Even though it's only 2/3 of a shortened season, which suddenly has significance in your point of view.)
 

ACTUALLY, what I said was:
"Nazem Kadri just played in his 36th game this year, which is 7 more games than his career high in the NHL 2 years ago. Not by any stretch of anyone's imagination have we any kind of decent sample size to determine what we should expect from Kadri going forward, but I'll tell you this much ..."

So, nice try, but massive fail.

quote:
You think Gagner's performance this season is an "upward blip." I'm curious to see what you think his points production will be over the next 4-5 seasons? Back down to 41-48 points for Gagner?


That is correct. I expect him to tail off this year, from what in a normal season would be a "great start to the season"; and then go back down to normal Gagner middling numbers. I think that his numbers have been inflated because of who he is playing with, and the forwards who have underperformed so far this year for the Oil (already starting to shift, IMHO).

quote:
In listing the various criteria I used to determine Gagner's future production, age was one of those factors. (Amongst may things.) Most people would be surprised to know that Gagner is only a year older than Nazem Kadri (once again, I'm NOT comparing Gagner to the "superstar potential" Kadri – I'm just providing context), and while one can say that Gagner has more NHL experience than most other 23 year old players, this does not necessarily change when he will peak as an NHL player. Whether a player plays 100 games or 400 games (like Gagner has) by the age of 23 does not change a player's peak ascension. (Except in examples of superstar players, who show peak performance earlier, and more sustained, than average or good NHL players.)


This is a more reasonable argument, but still false to a degree.

If a player by the age of 23 has 5 full NHL seasons under their belt . . . with them having had a "hot start" for the first thrid of what would be a REGULAR FULL SEASON, then no - I wouldn't read into it as some sort of progression. Not even a little bit.

For well over 80% (maybe more like 90-95%) of players, you are what you are by the third, and certainly 4th, full season played.

For Gagner, this to me means nothing above 55 pts should be at all expected from him next year.

quote:
Interestingly, only one NHL player (superstar Patrick Kane) has more points than Gagner from the 2007 draft year onwards. (To be clear, I'm NOT comparing Gagner to Patrick Kane. Merely providing context.)


Interestingly, two of the players with less points than Gagner since that draft who were taken ahead of him, would presumably have a greater trade value if dealt today (Turris and VanRiemsdyk). And just as interestingly, only 8 players would have a similar or greater trade value compared to Gagner, who were picked AFTER him in the 2007 draft: Voracek (7th), Couture (9th), Shattenkirk (14th), Pacioretty (22), Perron (26th), PK Subban (43rd), Simmonds (61st), Jamie Benn (129th). [I left out Backlund at 24th and Frattin at 99 to be fair - and I may have missed others].

Merely providing context.

quote:
And aside from Kane, only two players from the 2006 draft year forward (one year prior to Gagner's draft year) have played more NHL games: Nicklas Backstrom and Phil Kessel. (Once again, context NOT comparisons between these two players.)

If that's not a comparison . . . what is it, exactly?

quote:
While one could state that more should be expected of Gagner because of his 400 NHL games played, one could make an argument that he would be in the same place today (or better) if he took the slower developmental route. If, for example, Gagner stayed with the London Knights for another junior season, and played in the AHL for 3-4 seasons), he could have conceivably flourished in those leagues, and jumped into the NHL at 21 or 22 years of age instead of 18.


Without a time machine, I doubt that you could convince me that Gagner would be any better with more minors experience. He's not a defenceman . . .

quote:
But if you believe Gagner's growth would have been stifled by "playing down," one has to recognize that he didn't light the league on fire in his first five NHL seasons.

I think his development was eventual, even if not immediate.


After 5 years of mediocrity, a 30 game sample has him developed into a PPG player. Ok, that's pretty eventual alright!

quote:
Fair enough if you think his performance this season is a "blip," but I suspect the Oilers see him differently today, than they did a year ago. (And so do other NHL teams.) Gagner will be an RFA after this season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Oilers lock up Gagner long term. (Unless another team offers up a significant player with a similar upside.)
  

I would be absolutely shocked to see the Oilers lock him up long term.

quote:
And I'm betting Gagner's next contract is reflective of his improved play, and expectations that he will continue to improve. (And predictably, arm-chair critics will comment that he's overpaid, and hasn't proven anything yet.)


Aren't you an "arm-chair critic" just as much as I am, btw?

quote:
We will soon know Gagner's "contract value," but it will be many years before we know if Gagner will be a point a game player for the next 5-7 seasons.


Apparently not - you seem to think this 30-odd game sample has shown us his "progression" into a ppg player.

But we will see, indeed.

quote:
We will probably have a better idea in the next 2-3 years, so let's check back in 2015-16!


Odds of you checking back in 2 years to admit you were foolish to get so excited about Gagner's good stretch of points: extremely low.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

Edited by - slozo on 04/02/2013 10:43:35
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Guest4377
( )

Posted - 04/02/2013 :  16:16:44  Reply with Quote
There are many examples of players who had ordinary starts in first 4-5 seasons of their NHL career, and went on to improve afterwards.  As for your comment "Well over 80% (maybe more like 90-95%) of players, you are what you are by the third, and certainly 4th, full season played," I can agree that some players "are what they are" by their third season, but I don't think it's anyone near as high as the percentages you provided.  

But you "are what you are" CERTAINLY "by your 4th full season played?  How about the Sedin twins?  In their first four NHL seasons, the twins averaged about .47 points per game, but since then, they have performed at a point per game level.  Not saying that Gagner is equal to a Sedin twin, but if you think a player cannot continue to improve after 4-5 seasons in the NHL, we will have to agree to disagree.  

Since the Sedins example may not be enough, I took an extra ten minutes, and easily found a few other players who jumped in points production after your "third NHL season" criteria, all who played a fourth or fifth season before jumping up in points production:

Vincent Lecavalier:

First 306 games:  183 points  (.59 ppg)
Next 718 games:  681 points  (.95 ppg)

Shane Doan:

First 330 games:  113 points  (.34 ppg)
Next 903 games:  696 points  (.77 ppg)

Andrew Ladd:  

First 321 games: 149 points  (.46 ppg)
Next 200 games: 141 points  (.71 ppg)

Ray Whitney:

First 209 games:  125 points  (.59 ppg)
Next 1039 games:  894 points  (.86 ppg)

Ray Whitney was in his 5th NHL season (albeit not all full seasons), and 25 years old when the Oilers put him on waivers.  Florida picked him up, and he flourished thereafter.

If you were a GM and believed that a player's value was CERTAINLY known by their 4th NHL season, you would most CERTAINLY be out of a job!

And how about some current players entering their 4th or 5th season, who are showing improvement this season.  Players who were/are not "what they are" by their third NHL season.  

Matt Moulson:

First 275 games:  180 points  (.65 ppg)
2013 season:  35 points  (.97 ppg)

Blake Wheeler:

First 324 games:  191 points  (.59 ppg)
2013 season:  28 points  (.76 ppg)

Jakub Voracek:

First 319 games:  183 points  (.65 ppg)
2013 season:  35 points  (1.00 ppg)

And while some may believe these are exceptions (or "blips"), the fact is that most players do show improvement well past their first 4-5 seasons in the NHL.  (And especially past their 22nd or 23rd birthdays.)  Sure, some players have their best season by their 3rd or 4th season, but that's in the minority of examples.

We're getting off topic a bit, but NHL players do NOT peak at 21-22 years of age.  (Or by their 3rd NHL season.)  They peak, on average, in their mid (and sometimes) late 20's.  Yes, there are some superstar exceptions, but most players do not hit their prime until well after their 22nd birthday.  

Getting back on topic (Gagner being traded), I think the Oilers would get more this season for Gagner than they would have at the same time last season.  And of course so, and it's due to his upswing in play/production this shortened season.  

And I don't believe this is a "blip."  (And to repeat again - NOT solely based on his performance this season, but to other factors rpreviously and repeatedly noted.)  I don't think you're a fool if you think otherwise though. I just don't agree.

I still maintain the Oilers (or whoever signs Gagner) will lock him up long-term.  And by "long-term", a contract which is 4 years minimum, and I suspect in the $4.5 million a year neighbourhood.  And whatever contract he gets, it will be significantly more than he would have received this time last year!
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slozo
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Canada
4514 Posts

Posted - 04/03/2013 :  04:53:02  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
That's all fair enough Guest 4377.

And to be honest . . . you have taken the time to answer, often thoughtfully here, so we'll just have to agree to disagree.

Meet you here (in this thread) next year!

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1854 Posts

Posted - 04/03/2013 :  13:21:41  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I was assuming guest 4377 was Bean's incognito. And I agree with points he mentioned, btw. I think linemates, Line placement, TOI, when he is being relied upon during a game and the fact he put on some size this past year also helped his improved production. I expect similar production next year if given the same opportunity as this year.

Edited by - JOSHUACANADA on 04/03/2013 13:26:18
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Alex116
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5689 Posts

Posted - 04/03/2013 :  14:46:10  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
If it's Beans incognito, his alter ego has taken on a completely different persona than the real Beans!

Guest4377 has to be the most level headed, "i won't get into a pissing match" poster ever! Well thought out posts, keeps calm, explain his/her side of debates in detail, etc.....
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Beans15
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Canada
8153 Posts

Posted - 04/03/2013 :  15:01:39  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
What are you guys trying to say?? I like getting in arguments with people???

I have stayed out of this, for the most part, as guest #### has done a wonderful job of stating a similar argument to mine. No point in repeating the obvious.

I would like to add, however, that Gagner and Kadri are very similar players with the only different being that Gagner has developed in the NHL while Kadri developed in the AHL. I don't reasonably see how someone can say one having an improved season is a blip where the other one is breaking out.

I see the two players very similarly and they could both be blips or both be breakout seasons. They are not 'totally different dude' as Slozo posted early. At least that is my opinion.
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Alex116
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5689 Posts

Posted - 04/03/2013 :  15:30:45  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
You sure you're not 4377 Beans? You sure popped up quickly when the topic came up!

You must just be floating around here and not commenting as much as in the past.
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Guest4377
( )

Posted - 04/03/2013 :  17:38:23  Reply with Quote
Nope, I'm not Beans, but I'm Guest4178 sometimes. (Can't help having two monikers. One shows up from home postings, and the other from postings when at work.)

Really enjoyed exchanging points of view with Slozo. BTW, if Gagner registers 75-80 points next season, my prediction turns out to be accurate, but if Gagner slips back to 45-50 points, Slozo is right.

Who's more right if Gagner registers around 60-65 points next season?
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Guest4377
( )

Posted - 04/03/2013 :  17:54:00  Reply with Quote
And thanks Alex for the kind and flattering comments. The level of respect is mutual.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1854 Posts

Posted - 04/03/2013 :  18:56:33  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Seemed like a reasonable arguement which I also left alone, because points made by him were valid. Glad the Oilers kept Gagner and sent a message to the team that they were comfortable with current roster, but wish they had added veteran players or more toughness. Hate watching the smaller skilled players get pushed around in edmonton. Smyth, Habby and Horcoff are the greybeards in Edmonton.
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

What are you guys trying to say?? I like getting in arguments with people???

I have stayed out of this, for the most part, as guest #### has done a wonderful job of stating a similar argument to mine. No point in repeating the obvious.

I would like to add, however, that Gagner and Kadri are very similar players with the only different being that Gagner has developed in the NHL while Kadri developed in the AHL. I don't reasonably see how someone can say one having an improved season is a blip where the other one is breaking out.

I see the two players very similarly and they could both be blips or both be breakout seasons. They are not 'totally different dude' as Slozo posted early. At least that is my opinion.


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Alex116
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5689 Posts

Posted - 04/03/2013 :  20:41:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

What are you guys trying to say?? I like getting in arguments with people???





Beans, in fairness, when i re-read the post i made about Guest4377, it sounds like i'm slagging you and i apologize for that. I did not mean it in a negative way towards you whatsoever. I don't think you actually took it that way, but just want to be clear! You, for the most part, keep calm, make well thought out posts, etc as well. The guest just seems to be ultra calm when it comes to a debate!
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4514 Posts

Posted - 04/04/2013 :  04:50:47  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4377

Nope, I'm not Beans, but I'm Guest4178 sometimes. (Can't help having two monikers. One shows up from home postings, and the other from postings when at work.)

Really enjoyed exchanging points of view with Slozo. BTW, if Gagner registers 75-80 points next season, my prediction turns out to be accurate, but if Gagner slips back to 45-50 points, Slozo is right.

Who's more right if Gagner registers around 60-65 points next season?



You would be much more correct of Gagner gets 60 points or more sir - with the caveat of his stats not being skewed in some dramatic way by playing with Crosby or Malkin or Stamkos (after a trade) - but even then, anything over 65, 68ish I'd still have to give it to you.

I think anything below 60 points means, Gagner "is what he is", and his half season sample was an outlier (technical term was "blip")

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Beans15
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Canada
8153 Posts

Posted - 04/05/2013 :  08:35:04  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

What are you guys trying to say?? I like getting in arguments with people???





Beans, in fairness, when i re-read the post i made about Guest4377, it sounds like i'm slagging you and i apologize for that. I did not mean it in a negative way towards you whatsoever. I don't think you actually took it that way, but just want to be clear! You, for the most part, keep calm, make well thought out posts, etc as well. The guest just seems to be ultra calm when it comes to a debate!




I took no offense to your comments. I have a very combative personality and was making light of it.

We are cool.



I just have one more thing to say until this is put to bed until next year when Gagner keeps proving people wrong (including me!).

Why is a 2nd line centre who produces 40-49 points a season considered mediocre?? Speaking purely from an point production standpoint, 40-50 points will normally be in the top 30-40 centres in the NHL. Does that not put the player (production wise) near the bottom of top tier centres and near the top of the next level of centres in the NHL??

Why is Gagner being considered 'mediocre' when he out produced players like Mike Richards, Derek Roy, and Brandon Dubinsky and within a few points of players like Jordan Staal, Ryan Kessler, and Tomas Plekanec??


Spades are spades where you like them or not.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5689 Posts

Posted - 04/05/2013 :  09:07:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

Why is Gagner being considered 'mediocre' when he out produced players like Mike Richards, Derek Roy, and Brandon Dubinsky and within a few points of players like Jordan Staal, Ryan Kessler, and Tomas Plekanec??


Spades are spades where you like them or not.



I believe it's just hype over his expectations really. He was drafted high and has family pedigree, though his father wasn't exactly a HOFer.
When are you comparing him to these other guys? It's difficult to compare to some of those guys when you consider some of the other intangibles and accomplishments of those guys. Mike Richards has shown he can play at a higher level than he currently is. He not only made Team Canada and won a gold, he's got a ring as well as 2 seasons of 30+ goals and 4 seasons of 60+ points, including one at 80pts. He also was a runner up for the Selke a couple years ago wasn't he?

Roy also has four 60+ point seasons under his belt as well as one with 32 goals. Keep in mind, Gagner's never even scored 20.

Dubinsky is a closer comparison as far as points to Gagner, but it's well known that Dubi brings a lot more to a team than just points.

The others are more of the same really. I think Gagner, at his current pace, is easily amongst those mentioned. But until he shows this over a full season and more, he will be considered inferior to those others.

Worst thing for Gagner right now is that he's seeing less and less playing time with Hall and Eberle, now that RNH is playing better and lining up with those guys more. From what i understand, he's playing with Paarjarvi/Yakupov/Hemsky for the most part which is a step down from the talents of Eb's and Hall.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8153 Posts

Posted - 04/05/2013 :  13:26:00  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Alex, I was speaking purely from a point production standpoint. But you kind of prove my point. Regardless of him being the last name on that list of player, he belongs on the list. How people can say Gagner is 'mediocre' is my issue. It's a short-sighted statement based on nothing factual or even an intelligent hypothesis.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1854 Posts

Posted - 04/08/2013 :  08:47:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Best part about that list of players you proposed, as alternates to Gagner is they all play 1st and 2nd line minutes and are highly sought after during the offseason or trade deadline. That alone tells me Gagner is valuable enough that the Oilers should keep him. The fact that he is producing in the top 30 point wise, more than half of the players you compared him to he is out producing so far this year, tells me he is close to what he was projected to do when the Oilers got him. Nobody said he was the next great one, just a good player with potential.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4514 Posts

Posted - 04/30/2013 :  20:11:34  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
UPDATE:

Sam Gagner finished the season thus:

48 gp; 14 goals, 24 assists, 38 pts.
37th in the league in pts.

After my last post on April 4th, he played in 12 games, and got 5 assists. 3 of those in the last two blow-out victories for Edmonton that meant absolutely nothing.

Juuuuuuust a bit of a tail off.

Is it early to say . . . I told you so?

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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