Posted - 09/03/2008 : 14:44:36
By Randy Steinman
How do NHL trophy winners perform the year after their trophy win? Are there trends?
I looked at the winners of most of the major NHL award winners since 2005-06- the year following the "lockout". (I used 2005-06 as it is the first year of "the new NHL".) Statistical trends for the season following a trophy win are listed. In most cases, how the 2007-08 trophy winner should fare if they follow the trend is also discussed. I have also included my own predictions.
NHL trophy winners have a high standard to live up to the following year. Lidstrom and Datsyuk have been consistent in measuring up to the criteria needed for a Norris Trophy and a Byng Trophy respectively- and have been repeat winners. Calder Trophy winners may be subject to the "sophmore jinx". Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy winners have set a high standard in goals to live up to the following season.
They say, "history repeats itself". In the case of NHL trophy winners and their following season- that is not always the case.
(PPG is points per game.)
HART TROPHY (most valuable player)
2007-08-Alex Ovechkin. Scored 112 points and had a PPG of 1.37.
2006-07-Sidney Crosby. His points plummetted from 120 to 72 the next year when he was injured and missed 29 games. His PPG dropped from 1.52 to 1.36.
2005-06-Joe Thornton. Also won scoring title with 125 points. Dropped to 114 points the following season. His goal production dropped by 7 and he had 4 less assists. His PPG (points per game) dropped from 1.54 to 1.39.
Trend- Thornton experienced a 0.15 dip in PPG following his Hart Trophy win. Crosby's PPG dropped 0.16 after he got the award.
If the trend for Hart Trophy winners continues and Ovechkin experiences a similar dip in PPG he would score 99-100 points in 2008-09 if he plays all 82 games.
Throw that trend away- a healthy Ovechkin will score 110-115 points in 2008-09.
VEZINA TROPHY (outstanding goaltender)
2007-08 winner-Martin Brodeur
2006-07-Martin Brodeur. Following his 2006-07 win, Brodeur dropped from 48 to 44 in wins and dipped from 12 to 4 in shutouts. His GAA was almost the same the following season (2.18 to 2.17) as was his save percentage (.922 to .920).
2005-06-Mikka Kiprusoff. Had 42 wins,10 shutouts,a 2.07 GAA and a .923 SV. The next year he had 2 less wins and 3 less shutouts. His GAA went up to 2.46 and his save percentage was worse at .917.
Trend- The 2006 and 2007 Vezina winners saw a drop of 2-4 in wins and a drop of 3-8 in shutouts the following season. Kiprusoff's GAA increased by 0.39 while Brodeur's improved by 0.01. Their SV percentages were 0.02-0.06 less the next year.
If the trend continues- Brodeur will record 40-42 wins in 2008-09. His backup- Kevin Weekes- could possibly see more action. This would reduce Brodeur's wins and Weekes' splinters.
NORRIS TROPHY (outstanding defenseman)
2007-08-Nicklas Lidstrom (70 points)
2006-07-Nicklas Lidstrom (62 points)
2005-06-Nicklas Lidstrom (80 points)
The only trend here is Nicklas Lidstrom's consistency. That's why he has won the Norris Trophy for the last three years. Look for more of the same from as far as point production in 2008-09 and don't discount another Norris Trophy win.
CALDER TROPHY (rookie-of-the-year)
2007-08-Patrick Kane- 21G,51A,72PT
2006-07-Evgeni Malkin-33G-52A,85PT. Followed this with a 47G,59A,106PT season. His PPG increased from 1.09 to 1.29.
2005-06-Alex Ovechkin-52G-54A, 106PT. "Dropped" to 46G,46A,92PT. in his sophomore season. His PPG went from 1.31 to 1.12.
Trend- Malkin scored 14 more goals, 7 more assists and 21 more points in his sophomore season. Ovechkin scored 6 goals and 8 assists less in his second season.
You can do your own math here but I expect Kane's sophomore season to be more "Malkin-like" than "Ovechkin-like". Look for Kane to improve his numbers and score 25-30 goals,55-60 assists and 80-90 points.
LADY BYNG TROPHY (sportsmanship and gentlemanly play)
Datsyuk had seasons of 87, 87 and 97 points in these three Lady Bying winning years. His penalty totals were 22, 20 and 20 minutes during these years. Like Nicklas Lidstrom, Datsyuk is a consistent Red Wing. Could crack the 100-point barrier in 2008-09.
BILL MASTERTON MEMORIAL TROPHY (perseverance,sportsmanship and dedication to hockey)
2007-08-Jason Blake- 52 points.
2006-07-Phil Kessel- 29 points. Had 37 points the following season. PPG went from .41 to .45.
2005-06-Teemu Selanne- 90 points. Had 94 points the next season. PPG went from 1.13 to 1.15.
Trend- Selanne and Kessel increased their point totals by 4 and 8 the season after they won the Masterton. Selanne's PPG went up .02 and Kessel's .04 the next year.
If the trend for Masterton Trophy winners continues as far as points Blake should score 56-60 points in 2008-09. If it continues as far as PPG he should score 53-55 points this year. I would peg him at 50-55 points.
FRANK SELKE TROPHY (outstanding defensive forward)
2007-08-Pavel Datsyuk. 97 points. 1.18 PPG
2006-07-Rod Brind'Amour. 82 points. 1.05 PPG. Went to 51 points and a .86 PPG in 2007-08 when he missed 23 games.
2005-06-Rod Brind'Amour. 70 points. .90 PPG
Trend- As with the Norris Trophy winner (Lidstrom) there is a lot of consistency in the winners of the Selke Trophy. Look for Datsyuk to post similar or improved numbers and Brind'Amour to return from injury as the dependable veteran he is.
MAURICE "ROCKET" RICHARD TROPHY (leading goal scorer)
2007-08-Alex Ovechkin (65 goals).
2006-07-Vincent Lecavalier (52 goals). Dropped to 40 the following season.
2005-06-Jonathan Cheechoo (56 goals). Dropped to 37 the following season.
Previous winners Cheechoo and Lecavalier scored 19 and 12 goals less in the season following their Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy win.
If the trend for winners of this trophy continues, Ovechkin would score 46-53 goals in 2008-09. Trend aside, I'd say Ovechkin will score 60-65 goals this season.
The trends of the trophy winners, combined with your own judgement, could help in selecting your fantasy hockey teams in 2008-09.
Be sure to visit Fantasy Hockey Journal (www.fantasyhockeyjournal.com)- All your tools for your hockey pools.
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