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Guest4377
( )

Posted - 04/30/2013 :  21:54:44  Reply with Quote
WAY too early to say I told you so!

Admittedly, Gagner's production tailed off, but 38 points in 48 games translates into 65 points in an 82 game season. 37th in the NHL for points is actually very good. (He actually finished tied at 34th in points, matching Zach Parise's production to name one player.) How many 23 year olds (or younger than Gagner) tallied more points this past season? I haven't checked, but I would guess maybe ten.

Regardless, my projections for Gagner's future success go beyond this season (for which his jump in points per game was quite significant, and trending in a positive direction), and to some extent, next season.

Let's check back in 2-3 years!
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 05/01/2013 :  05:02:12  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4377

WAY too early to say I told you so!

Admittedly, Gagner's production tailed off, but 38 points in 48 games translates into 65 points in an 82 game season. 37th in the NHL for points is actually very good. (He actually finished tied at 34th in points, matching Zach Parise's production to name one player.) How many 23 year olds (or younger than Gagner) tallied more points this past season? I haven't checked, but I would guess maybe ten.

Regardless, my projections for Gagner's future success go beyond this season (for which his jump in points per game was quite significant, and trending in a positive direction), and to some extent, next season.

Let's check back in 2-3 years!




I liked how you barely acknowledged that his production tailed off dramatically in the last 12 games, but then projected his full season totals not taking into account the trend of him returning to his regular 45-50 point pace.

I'm putting it out there now as a prediction:
Gagner doesn't get over 50 points next year.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5693 Posts

Posted - 05/01/2013 :  08:36:15  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Wow, 50pts seems low considering the talent he's got around him.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 05/01/2013 :  11:48:40  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

Wow, 50pts seems low considering the talent he's got around him.



Why do you think he'll have top talent surrounding him?

What line do you think he'll play on?
Eberle - RNH - Hall is sure to remain the top line barring injuries. At most, Yakupov replaces someone on wing and switches with them.

So, at best, and obviously this is just my opinion . . . but at BEST, Gagner plays with Eberle and Paajarvi/Jones.

I don't think that Gagner is going to be made into a 50 point player suddenly because he had a good run in a shortened season for a stretch of games where RNH struggled mightily and was effectively replaced by him on the top line.

He is an "ok" second line centre.

Let me know when he scores 20 goals or 55 points.
Sorry . . . 50 points! 49 is his high, lol.

Breakout-shmakeout.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3562 Posts

Posted - 05/01/2013 :  12:55:30  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by slozo
Why do you think he'll have top talent surrounding him?

What line do you think he'll play on?
Eberle - RNH - Hall is sure to remain the top line barring injuries. At most, Yakupov replaces someone on wing and switches with them.




I think EDM would be smart to consider breaking up that top line, and spreading the talent over 2 line while adding a veteran presence on both. Gagner will probably be playing with some talent next year.
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Guest4178
( )

Posted - 05/01/2013 :  13:20:37  Reply with Quote
It's guest 4377 here, and responding to Slozo's "I told you so."

I would love to register a bet with you, and for a significant sum! I think Gagner is very likely to tally 60-70 points next season (with the usual caveat, that he plays a full or near full season). And once again, I see a continued incline in his production, where he will be a point a game player for a number of seasons to come, when he gets closer to an NHL player's peak production years, 24, 25, 26 and 27 years of age.

So to take your bet (prediction) that "Gagner doesn't get over 50 points next year," I would take that bet. I know it was a shortened season, but Gagner's extrapolated points (over 82 games) works out to 65 points. You think he's going to revert back to being a 50 point (or less) player at the time and age players usually get better. (Gagner turns 24 this summer.)

As for "barely acknowledging" his tail off in production in finishing up the season, it was you who earlier stated that smaller sampling sizes are less significant. ("31 pts in 33 games tells you he's a point a game player now. It's a shortened "half" a season. It's 33 games. Get a grip.")

If 33 games was not a measuring stick, then why suddenly do 12 games make a big difference?

Once again, my prediction on Gagner's future success is not limited to this year or next year. Let's check back in 2-3 years.

But here are a few more facts on how well he did this season. In finishing tied for 34th position in points, Gagner had more points than the highest point player on ten teams, including the Bruins (Marchand, Krejci, Bergeron, Seguin), Blues (Stewart, Backes, Steen, Perron), and the Senators.

There are only 13 teams for which Gagner would NOT be one of the top two point getters on this team. That's pretty good, and I believe he's still improving!

As for who his linemates are next season, a better question may be who he plays for? He's an RFA, so the Oilers still need to sign him. I think they will though, and regardless, my prediction is not significantly predicated on who he plays with or who he plays for. He proved himself this past season, so he will get a full opportunity with playing minutes, quality linemates, power play time, etc.

I'm okay to put this debate on hold (it's the playoffs after all), and I will gladly check back with you in 2-3 years! (Or the end of next season to see how Gagner is doing by then.)
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 05/02/2013 :  04:34:11  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

quote:
If 33 games was not a measuring stick, then why suddenly do 12 games make a big difference?


Because those 33 games are an outlier to 5 seasons, and those 12 games AFTER those hot 33 are bringing him right back to his statistical average. (and likely, he doesn't get all three points in thos last two meaningless games).

My point is, it is an indicator to me that if it HADN'T been a 48 game season and they continued on for 82 . . . his numbers would have continued to fall back in line with what for him would be a good year, but not statistically aberrant - something in the 20 goal, 50-55 point range.

Btw, I'd make a bet on 55 points, not 50 . . . just to give myself some statistical leeway for a slightly better year that isn't outside the statistical norm.

Name your terms . . . you'll have to sign up, however. Faceless guests cannot trade avatars!

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Guest4178
( )

Posted - 05/02/2013 :  08:31:32  Reply with Quote
If you still think Gagner registering 5 points in his last 12 games is meaningful (and indicative), then what do you have to say about Nazem Kadri?

You're a Leaf fan, so you probably know that Kadri ALSO tallied 5 points in his last 12 regular season games. (And 0 points in his first playoff game.)

Does this take away from his great breakout season? A season where he was tied for 21st in points, with 44 points in 48 games.

As for the bet, I would take the bet with the change you described (55 points instead of 50 points). As for signing up, I've tried a few times before, but despite sending 2-3 e-mail notes to the PUH administrator, I did not hear back. I need some reassurances about privacy, etc. before signing up. (If the PUH administrator is paying attention, can you please provide me with an e-mail address where you can be reached.)

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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1855 Posts

Posted - 05/02/2013 :  09:06:05  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hockey is a game of up and downs my friend, the last 12 games were just that, a small sample of ups and downs. If you are picking him for 55 points in a full season, just to be safe, that would statistically be close yet lower than this years average, but higher than his career average. So what your saying is your confident he has seen growth this year and with support could obtain higher than his career average. I think that was all most people were saying about Gagner, that he is starting to come into his game and the Oilers should lock him up. I dont believe either him or Kadri have peaked yet. I expect similar or greater PPG averages than this year next year for both players, should they maintain the quality of linemates and playing time, as both teams are realizing there strengths and where they fit in the lineup.

quote:
Originally posted by slozo


quote:
If 33 games was not a measuring stick, then why suddenly do 12 games make a big difference?


Because those 33 games are an outlier to 5 seasons, and those 12 games AFTER those hot 33 are bringing him right back to his statistical average. (and likely, he doesn't get all three points in thos last two meaningless games).

My point is, it is an indicator to me that if it HADN'T been a 48 game season and they continued on for 82 . . . his numbers would have continued to fall back in line with what for him would be a good year, but not statistically aberrant - something in the 20 goal, 50-55 point range.

Btw, I'd make a bet on 55 points, not 50 . . . just to give myself some statistical leeway for a slightly better year that isn't outside the statistical norm.

Name your terms . . . you'll have to sign up, however. Faceless guests cannot trade avatars!

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug



"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 05/03/2013 :  07:16:25  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Do you guys REALLY not get it?!?
Goodness.

A guy plays 5 seasons of 68 games or more each . . . a statistically significant sample . . . and despite his very streaky nature, each year has an extremely consistent point total at the end of it.

Then we play a half season, where he once again goes on one of his tears, and begins to slide down to his statistical norm . . . and you guys pile on the hot streak as a sign of things to come, and deride me as pointing to a 12 game slide as insignificant.

200708 79gp - 13g 36a 49 pts
200809 76gp - 16g 25a 41 pts
200910 68gp - 15g 26a 41 pts
201011 68gp - 15g 27a 42 pts
201112 75gp - 18g 29a 47 pts
201213 48gp - 14g 24a 38 pts

Do you guys think he hasn't gone through these hot and cold streaks before?

2011/12
First 23 games of the season: 3 goals 8 assists
(a projected pace of 39 pts over an 82 game season)

A 5 game stetch in the middle, which included that 4goals 4 assists performance we all remember: 8 goals, 7 assists
(a projected pace of 246 pts in an 82 game season)

last 13 games of the season: 2 assists
(a projected pace of 13 points in an 82 game season)

But at the end of the year, what are we left with, despite everyone getting all excited about a big breakout after his 8 pt performance?
We are left with his usual statistical average, 47 pts in 75 games played.

If you only look at a 38 game sample - or in everyone's case here, what you are really looking at is his worth suddenly in a 26 game sample, since you are arbitrarily throwing away that last 12 games as insignificant - you won't get a true picture. That 26 or 38 game sample may have his hot streak included, or it may not.

Last year, if we judged San Gagner on his last 38 games played - the same amount as he has played this year - he'd have had 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points.

If it was the first 38 games played last year, he'd have 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 pts.

If it was his best stretch of the season statistically last year in 38 straight games (Nov 25-Feb 21), it'd be 14 goals, 24 assists, 38 points . . . a point a game, an even better pace than this year's 38 game sample.

Why do you guys think this year's 38 game sample is any more or less of a statistical sample than the three 38 game samples from last year?

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Guest4178
( )

Posted - 05/03/2013 :  09:03:06  Reply with Quote
Slozo with respect, I really don't think you get it.

Every player goes on tears (not just Sam Gagner), maybe with the exception of the top players in the game.

Take a look at Joe Thornton's game log this season, or Alex Ovechkin's. Most NHL players have streaks, and that's why you try to look at the biggest samplings possible.

I can't do anything with how many games Gagner has played this season, but 48 games is the biggest sampling we have for how he did this year, where he tallied 38 points in 48 games. That's 34th in the NHL, and as previously stated, ahead of a lot of very good players in the league. There's no doubt Gagner took his game up a level this season I don't think you can dispute this.

Gagner averaged .60 points per game prior to this season, and the fact is Gagner averaged .80 points per game this season. (Well 79.16 actually, but still a .20 jump.)

To repeat what was pointed out earlier, there are many examples of players who played 4-5 seasons before increasing their points production.

Vincent Lecavalier went from .59 ppg to .95 ppg
Shane Doan went from .34 ppg to .77 ppg
Andrew Ladd went from .46 ppg to .71 ppg
Ray Whitney went from .59 ppg to .86 ppg

And there are many others. And granted, you could find many players who dipped (or peaked) after their first 4-5 years in the NHL.

Now here's the opinion part. I think Sam Gagner's performance this season is not a blip. You do. That's okay with me, and to restate what I've expressed many times, let's check back in 2-3 years, not every 2-3 weeks. (Or 2-3 days.)

By the way, I'm still interested in your response to my question about Nazem Kadri. Do you (or other Leafs fans for that matter) think his last 12 regular season games, where he tallied only 5 points take away from his success this season? If you believe this is a significant weakness to Gagner's season, do you believe the same of Kadri?
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1855 Posts

Posted - 05/03/2013 :  10:22:17  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think the guest has some points. 34th in the League in points with 2nd line minutes and the 2nd best line of forward to play with in Edmonton. Any reason to think that a guy who is putting legit 1st line points over the course of a abbreviated season will not sustain or improve on it as he is coming into his prime. As has been said before his quality of linemates and toi have improved as the coaches have increased there confidence in his play. I didn't see any reason why the Oiler would have lost confidence in him late in the season and if an Oiler next year will be given the same opportunity.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 05/03/2013 :  10:46:21  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Then I guess you just don't get it.

"By the way, I'm still interested in your response to my question about Nazem Kadri. Do you (or other Leafs fans for that matter) think his last 12 regular season games, where he tallied only 5 points take away from his success this season? If you believe this is a significant weakness to Gagner's season, do you believe the same of Kadri?"

No, I don't think Nazem Kadri, playing in his first "full" season of 48 games can be judged or downgraded too much on the last 12 games. Why would he?

Are you trying to compare Gagner to Kadri based on age? Because other than that, and perhaps position where they were drafted / expectation level . . . I don't see the similarity whatsoever to even remotely try and guess what Nazem Kadri's statistical season average might be. What we have right now for Kadri is a good look at what promise he might bring - he could be a point per game player in the future. He could also settle into a third liner with scoring touch, who knows? My guess is that he becomes a very solid first line centre who falls a bit below a point a game, a 25 goal, 35 assist type guy. But who knows . . .

. . . hell, I'll tell you what though: I definitely WILL know what Nazem Kadri will be after another three or four seasons, in all probability (barring major injuries, etc).

Just like I am very sure of what Gagner is now, after 5 and a half seasons.

slozo out!


"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1855 Posts

Posted - 05/03/2013 :  10:56:03  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Ok, Slozo, if your judging Gagner by his first 3-4 years of developing in a 3rd and 4th line role, but aren't taking into his 1st opportunity of 1st and 2nd line play, toi and linemates, why wouldn't we take into account Kadri had a hard time breaking into the NHL for the last 2-3 years. I don't see Gagner or Kadri being 1 hit wonders for this seasons stats, but that's what you contend Gagner has done. Next year we can check back and see.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 05/03/2013 :  11:08:52  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Ok, I couldn't let it go.

quote:
Gagner averaged .60 points per game prior to this season, and the fact is Gagner averaged .80 points per game this season. (Well 79.16 actually, but still a .20 jump.)


Unh hunh . . . and? he average .80 for this 48 game season . . . and at something like 34 games, he was at 1.00. So what's your point again?

quote:
To repeat what was pointed out earlier, there are many examples of players who played 4-5 seasons before increasing their points production.

Vincent Lecavalier went from .59 ppg to .95 ppg
Shane Doan went from .34 ppg to .77 ppg
Andrew Ladd went from .46 ppg to .71 ppg
Ray Whitney went from .59 ppg to .86 ppg


Shame on me for taking for granted your example. But I first looked at Lecavalier, and you'll have to show me this "gagner jump" (5 years of very similar production, then a .20 pts per game jump or more) you speak of for the former 1st overall draft pick.
Lecavalier 1st 6 years
82gp 13g 15a 28pts
80 25 42 67
68 23 28 51
76 20 17 37
80 33 45 78
Ok . . . that's the first 5 seasons . . .
81 32 34 66
(his 52 goal, 108 point season comes 2 seasons later)
And the situation is completely different. Chosen first overall, made the youngest captain ever at the time, captaincy taken away, his play plunges after that, then he starts to come into his own very, very late.

An anamoly, one that is not very close whatsoever to Gagner in his first 5 and a half seasons. At all.



"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1855 Posts

Posted - 05/03/2013 :  11:29:04  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I have to ask Slozo, outside of a 2nd year uptick in production Lecavelier didn't see a spike until his 6th year and his 7th was a monster season he will likely never reproduce. His pace of points were similar to Gagner, except Gagner is peaking earlier in his career than Lecavelier. I don't know why you picked this player of all the players on the guests list to use as an example as this only proves Gagners potential and value more. To be honest if we look at players with stats similar to Gagner at this point in there careers who are seeing increased playing times and linemates why are you arguing against what fans who regularly watch his game think his potential is.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
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Guest4178
( )

Posted - 05/03/2013 :  14:07:24  Reply with Quote
I thought we were going to check back in 2-3 years, not 2-3 hours! :)

Agreed, Gagner has not produced much in the last 2-3 hours, and he probably won't produce much in the next 2-3 months! I will give you that! :)

In another site (one which asked which Oiler would get the most points this season), I made the (bold) prediction that Gagner would jump .20 ppg in production. Becoming a 65-70 point player in an 82 game season. I made this prediction before the season started.

And the facts prove this to be an accurate prediction. Not gloating, but who else predicted Gagner to make such a jump in production, especially (as you repeatedly state) five previous flat seasons of points production?

And my prediction continues, that he will continue to improve in years to come. (And why shouldn't he? Gagner is only 23 years old.)

If you cannot see that NHL players often get better after their early 20's (even after providing multiple examples), I can't help you with that.

Once again, I have no problem at all with having a difference of opinion, but I would never suggest that "facts" prove Gagner will be a ppg player in the NHL in the next 2-3 seasons, the very years most NHL players peak in production. Nor would I dismiss the "facts" you use to support your opinion.

We have a difference of opinion that's all. Your "facts" are not going to change my mind about a player I've watched for six seasons, I suspect way more games than you have seen him play.

And once again, my prediction is for the future, so we will have to wait 2-3 years to see who's right. (Or maybe after next season at the earliest, to get a better idea.)

I can wait. :)
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5693 Posts

Posted - 05/03/2013 :  16:10:15  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4178

I thought we were going to check back in 2-3 years, not 2-3 hours! :)



Lol...too funny!

BTW, Guest4178, you make me sick! How can you continue to stay so level headed and reasonable in another debate! I'd have lost it by now, be steaming mad, prob warned by a mod or admin, etc to calm the heck down! You? Nope, just calm, reasonable, respectful, etc. Kudos bro.

As for the argument, i see both sides, though while it's not fair to judge Kadri after his first full season, it's equally unfair to not respect the age that Gagner came into the league.
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Guest6896
( )

Posted - 05/04/2013 :  02:58:28  Reply with Quote
Don't try to talk common sense with a Leaf fan. You are wasting your time.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 01/05/2014 :  10:59:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hey, where are you guys?

Guest 4178 - come on now, please chime in with your great thoughts on Gagner's breakout season thus far.

JoshuCanada - you pile in too! Let me know how great you think Gagner's season is going.

Guest 6896 - would love your potent thoughts on how this Leaf fan was correct.

Current Stats for the Amazing Breakout of Sam GAGner:
31 games played: 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points.

Really astounding stuff.
10th in scoring on his last placed team, after 44 games of the season, in which he has played 31. If Gagner stays healthy (ha ha) and continues at his current pace for the remaining 38 games . . . he'd come somewhere close to 41 points! Maybe even 11 goals! Wow!!!

Come on all you "Gagner is breaking out in 2013/14" supporters . . . now is the time to start chiming in!


"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

Edited by - slozo on 01/06/2014 09:40:31
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Guest3792
( )

Posted - 01/05/2014 :  22:37:52  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by slozo

Hey, where are you guys?

Guest 4178 - come on now, please chime in with your great thoughts on Gagner's breakout season thus far.

JoshuCanada - you pile in too! Let me know how great you think Gagner's season is going.

Guest 6896 - would love your potent thoughts on how this Leaf fan was correct.

Current Stats for the Amazing Breakout of Simone GAGner:
31 games played: 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points.

Really astounding stuff.
10th in scoring on his last placed team, after 44 games of the season, in which he has played 31. If Gagner stays healthy (ha ha) and continues at his current pace for the remaining 38 games . . . he'd come somewhere close to 41 points! Maybe even 11 goals! Wow!!!

Come on all you "Gagner is breaking out in 2013/14" supporters . . . now is the time to start chiming in!


"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug


I wasn't one of these guest who thought Gagner was going to "breakout" but your whole argument gets killed when you put 'Simone Gagner'. You clearly must have been thinking 'Sam Gagner', right?
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Guest2186
( )

Posted - 01/06/2014 :  00:15:36  Reply with Quote
could be an epic trollololol
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 01/06/2014 :  09:41:30  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest3792

quote:
Originally posted by slozo

Hey, where are you guys?

Guest 4178 - come on now, please chime in with your great thoughts on Gagner's breakout season thus far.

JoshuCanada - you pile in too! Let me know how great you think Gagner's season is going.

Guest 6896 - would love your potent thoughts on how this Leaf fan was correct.

Current Stats for the Amazing Breakout of Simone GAGner:
31 games played: 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points.

Really astounding stuff.
10th in scoring on his last placed team, after 44 games of the season, in which he has played 31. If Gagner stays healthy (ha ha) and continues at his current pace for the remaining 38 games . . . he'd come somewhere close to 41 points! Maybe even 11 goals! Wow!!!

Come on all you "Gagner is breaking out in 2013/14" supporters . . . now is the time to start chiming in!


"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug


I wasn't one of these guest who thought Gagner was going to "breakout" but your whole argument gets killed when you put 'Simone Gagner'. You clearly must have been thinking 'Sam Gagner', right?



It was error, corrected.

Didn't kill my point in the slightest, but nice try.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Guest4178
( )

Posted - 01/06/2014 :  12:33:32  Reply with Quote
I thought we were going to wait 2-3 years, not two months! :)

But if you want to use two months as a barometer, I will refer you to some very interesting observations made in another thread ("David Clarkson a bust?") comments you made about making assumptions or reaching conclusions on limited numbers of games played:

"Definitely a bit of a bust so far, no doubt.

But it's early, and simply looks like a "bad start" to me. Not horrible - he hasn't been a drag on the team or anything . . . he just hasn't added anything to it.

It's been 17 games for Clarkson only . . . remember that he was suspended for the first ten. He's currently on pace for a 10 goal, 14 assist 24 pt full season (he'll play 72 at most this year) . . . below what should probably be expected of him, for sure - but you can't pick and choose random 17 game samples from any player and tell me that's what he is, it can go both ways.

I think he'll get better, but that "better" may be a more actively involved player who will get 40 points in a full season, maybe 20 goals."

I will leave it for others to comment on Clarkson, but for those who use small samplings of games played, there's no doubt Clarkson is off to a bit of a slow start with the Leafs, for which he now (currently) only has 8 points in 31 games. But does this make him a bust for the next five seasons? Once again, I will leave this for others to debate.

Getting back to Gagner, I agree that he's off to slow start, but he missed the first 13 games of the season with a broken jaw. And until recently, he played with a full face shield, which has inhibited his play to a certain extent. Gagner was rushed back into the lineup after the Oilers poor start this season, and I think Gagner (and to some extent, his teammates) are getting used to their fourth coach (and system) in five years.

I still believe Gagner's future prospects are very good, and while I'm fine with checkups every two months (or every day if that suits your fancy),I think we will have to wait at least 2-3 years (or more) before we see this 24-year-old's peak performance on the ice, whether it is in an Oilers uniform or not.

As it relates to Gagner being traded (and getting closer to the original subject heading "Likelihood of a Gagner trade"), on HNIC this past weekend, Elliotte Friedman said that "Sam Gagner's name is out there," and added that if the Oilers could find him a place where he would feel comfortable playing, he would be agreeable to a move. According to Friedman, Gagner does not have a formal NMC this season (Cap Geek shows it for 2014-2015 only), but MacTavish did verbally agree to discuss any potential trades with Gagner.

Maybe a change in scenery is best for Gagner (and the Oilers), but it depends on what the Oilers could get in return. And what another team thinks of Gagner's future potential, and not for the next two months, but for 2-3 seasons or more!
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Guest4178
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Posted - 01/06/2014 :  14:52:28  Reply with Quote
By the way, when you stated "If Gagner stays healthy (ha ha)," are you implying that he's injury-prone? Or are you suggesting harm will come his way? :)

Up until this season, Gagner has played in 414 out of 458 of his team's games. This works out to over 90%. No iron-man, but hardly injury-prone.

And when Zach Kassian's errant stick broke Gagner's jjaw, are you suggesting he has a glass jaw?

Or have you taken a personal stake in this topic so far that you would employ Kassian (or any other player) to take out Gagner? :)
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1855 Posts

Posted - 01/06/2014 :  19:12:43  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I have to agree with the guest here. Sam Gagner isn't what I would call injury prone. I had my doubts that Gagner would return to form after the jaw injury. I have received an injury similar to this in the past and outside of the obvious facial damage, is the loss of body mass one gets by the inability to eat solid foods for a while. I am not making excuses for Gagner here, but I would wager a bet he doesn't fully recover from the injury and body mass/strength loss until closer to the playoffs, which for the Oilers means the offseason. Again not trying to make excuses here, but I wrote off his season at the point he received the injury due to the nature of the injury.
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markliso
Top Prospect



Canada
52 Posts

Posted - 01/08/2014 :  12:17:31  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I like you 4178.
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Guest3792
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Posted - 01/08/2014 :  13:05:44  Reply with Quote
Ok so back to the original topic. 'Likelihood of a Gagner trade'. I have been hearing his name get tossed around lately. Nothing that makes me think a deal is in place. All though I think he is probaly near the top of the tradeable list for Edmonton. My Guess would be a package deal with 1st round pick 1014, any other picks, defensmen or defense prospects for a stud d-man or big center.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 01/09/2014 :  07:19:37  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest3792

Ok so back to the original topic. 'Likelihood of a Gagner trade'. I have been hearing his name get tossed around lately. Nothing that makes me think a deal is in place. All though I think he is probaly near the top of the tradeable list for Edmonton. My Guess would be a package deal with 1st round pick 1014, any other picks, defensmen or defense prospects for a stud d-man or big center.



Yeah - his value has plummeted, at this point. He's literally a throw-in player on a bigger deal at this point . . . just another warm body.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1855 Posts

Posted - 01/09/2014 :  08:02:40  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by slozo

quote:
Originally posted by Guest3792

Ok so back to the original topic. 'Likelihood of a Gagner trade'. I have been hearing his name get tossed around lately. Nothing that makes me think a deal is in place. All though I think he is probaly near the top of the tradeable list for Edmonton. My Guess would be a package deal with 1st round pick 1014, any other picks, defensmen or defense prospects for a stud d-man or big center.



Yeah - his value has plummeted, at this point. He's literally a throw-in player on a bigger deal at this point . . . just another warm body.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

If that is his current value then the Oilers should keep him. You never know if he has another 8 point game in him and be back in fantasy hockey good books ;)
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5693 Posts

Posted - 01/09/2014 :  10:39:19  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by slozo


Yeah - his value has plummeted, at this point. He's literally a throw-in player on a bigger deal at this point . . . just another warm body.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug



I disagree. While his value isn't sky high, I don't think it ever really was and figured he'd be part of a package deal to begin with. I won't go to the extent of calling him a "throw-in" or a "warm body" by any means, but he's certainly not gonna fetch the big defenseman the Oilers seem to covet all on his own.

I'm sure those involved in either trading him or trading for him would cut him some slack after the injury he suffered at the start of the year! IMO, his value is exactly the same as it was one year ago.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1855 Posts

Posted - 01/09/2014 :  11:47:05  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Ok Slozo here is a direct competitor to Gagner which we have compared in length to Gagner:

Kadri 40 g 25 points .625ppg. Kadri is listed as the 4th best ppg centerman on Toronto's roster

Gagner 33 g 17 points .515ppg. 2nd on team in ppg and 7th on the roster due to only playing 33 games, which 15 of them he should have been at home on the IR.

Gagner is recovering from a season ending injury and his ppg are heading north with 4 points in his last 5. He is currently playing just below his career average ppg, but again is climbing.

Kadri, outside of a suspension, has 2 points in his last 5 and is heading south in his ppg. Kadri's last years stats say he should be just under a ppg and this year he was suppose to improve on it. Currently he is playing below his career average and again heading south.

Forgetting the comparison here for a second, whats the hate on for Gagner?
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Guest3792
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Posted - 01/09/2014 :  12:28:40  Reply with Quote
1st to Slozo, It's not that Gagner is a 'throw in player', In fact quite the opposite. I think he would be the main attraction. The whole deal though is the Oiler's situation. They Need A) A Legit #1 D-Man, B) A Big top-6 Center, C) A starting Goalie. Gagner is not worth any of these things by himself. The Oiler's would have to add picks, prospects and/or lesser valued players to add one of these.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5693 Posts

Posted - 01/09/2014 :  12:45:13  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest3792

1st to Slozo, It's not that Gagner is a 'throw in player', In fact quite the opposite. I think he would be the main attraction. The whole deal though is the Oiler's situation. They Need A) A Legit #1 D-Man, B) A Big top-6 Center, C) A starting Goalie. Gagner is not worth any of these things by himself. The Oiler's would have to add picks, prospects and/or lesser valued players to add one of these.



Well said. Exactly what I was getting at and you worded it perfectly. He's far from a "throw in" but he's not yet a stud himself. His potential mixed with his age is worth something.
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Guest3792
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Posted - 01/09/2014 :  12:52:24  Reply with Quote
2nd to Alex116 - His Value is not exactly the same as last year. He had an 8-point night. Oiler's could of traded him more easy and got more for him after that then they could right now. Real talk

3nd Gagner's Value - Forget the name for a second and you will see 2007 6th overall pick is currently in his 7th season of his NHL career & is only 24 years old. He was a consistent 40+ point player his first 5 season's until last year he earned 38 in 48 games and another 20 in Austria (Lockout Season). He has never missed more than 14 games. He is a smaller Center with possibly a better shot at sliding in on the wing (which the Oilers are finally trying him out against PIT, some are saying to try to showcase him). I would say that's some pretty decent value and all though 29 teams won't be biting at the door for him I bet a lot of those 29 GM's thought about Gagner on their team.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2014 :  17:35:52  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

Ok Slozo here is a direct competitor to Gagner which we have compared in length to Gagner:

Kadri 40 g 25 points .625ppg. Kadri is listed as the 4th best ppg centerman on Toronto's roster

Gagner 33 g 17 points .515ppg. 2nd on team in ppg and 7th on the roster due to only playing 33 games, which 15 of them he should have been at home on the IR.

Gagner is recovering from a season ending injury and his ppg are heading north with 4 points in his last 5. He is currently playing just below his career average ppg, but again is climbing.

Kadri, outside of a suspension, has 2 points in his last 5 and is heading south in his ppg. Kadri's last years stats say he should be just under a ppg and this year he was suppose to improve on it. Currently he is playing below his career average and again heading south.

Forgetting the comparison here for a second, whats the hate on for Gagner?



No hate, just an opinion. Always has been, always will be.

It's a 50 pt player at most who is extremely streaky, and shows occasional flashes of outright stardom, followed by nothingness. I don't see more than 60 points in him, ever.

And I do see more than 60 pts in Kadri, I can nearly guarantee it.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 01/27/2014 :  11:05:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Is it still too early to talk about Sam Gagner, and the fact that he is NOT, under NO CIRCUMSTANCE, going to have his breakout season this year?

Still too early?

Sam Gagner
41 games played: 6 goals, 16 assists, 22 points.

(FYI - his compareable, the SOPHOMORE SLUMPING Nazem Kadri, is at 50 gp, 12 goals, 21 assists, 33 points.)

OR . . .
Do you feel that some kind of massive breakout is imminent?

Because I don't doubt that Gagner COULD get hot for a week, two week period, where he suddenly gets 10 or 12 points or more . . . but it'll still only bring him somewhere close to 50 points when all is said and done.

Anyone, anyone?
Breakout happening?

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4516 Posts

Posted - 01/27/2014 :  11:14:27  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4178

It's guest 4377 here, and responding to Slozo's "I told you so."

I would love to register a bet with you, and for a significant sum! I think Gagner is very likely to tally 60-70 points next season (with the usual caveat, that he plays a full or near full season). And once again, I see a continued incline in his production, where he will be a point a game player for a number of seasons to come, when he gets closer to an NHL player's peak production years, 24, 25, 26 and 27 years of age.

So to take your bet (prediction) that "Gagner doesn't get over 50 points next year," I would take that bet. I know it was a shortened season, but Gagner's extrapolated points (over 82 games) works out to 65 points. You think he's going to revert back to being a 50 point (or less) player at the time and age players usually get better. (Gagner turns 24 this summer.)

As for "barely acknowledging" his tail off in production in finishing up the season, it was you who earlier stated that smaller sampling sizes are less significant. ("31 pts in 33 games tells you he's a point a game player now. It's a shortened "half" a season. It's 33 games. Get a grip.")

If 33 games was not a measuring stick, then why suddenly do 12 games make a big difference?

Once again, my prediction on Gagner's future success is not limited to this year or next year. Let's check back in 2-3 years.

...

I'm okay to put this debate on hold (it's the playoffs after all), and I will gladly check back with you in 2-3 years! (Or the end of next season to see how Gagner is doing by then.)




So, where are you guest?
Hello?

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Guest4178
( )

Posted - 01/27/2014 :  11:53:01  Reply with Quote
I'm still here not hiding. :)

You have my response, which I provided on January 6th. I think Gagner's play has improved recently since he removed the full face shield. I think he will finish up the season okay, but once again, my prediction on Gagner's future progress in not just this season, but future seasons to come. Once again, he's only 24 years old, not yet near his prime or peak.

And you still haven't answered my question, which I posted on the same date. Do you think Gagner is injury prone?
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5693 Posts

Posted - 01/27/2014 :  16:38:13  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Slozo, a couple of 8pt games will get him right up there.
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