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 Ottawa's Playoff Chances

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T O P I C    R E V I E W
HasekFan39 Posted - 04/20/2007 : 18:46:42
How big of a chance do you think Ottawa will win the Stanley Cup?
29   L A T E S T    R E P L I E S    (Newest First)
Guest8815 Posted - 10/09/2007 : 20:21:05
You should change the title. Because i voted thinking it was "Playoff Chances" so I said 100% but now I say 1/16 chance because they will for sure make the playoffs (IMO) so that slims it to 16 teams.
Senators315 Posted - 10/09/2007 : 19:43:00
no offense i love ottawa and all, but its kinda early to prodict if the sens are gonna win the cup or not. Sure there undefeated so far but what if they dont make the playoffs? not saying there not but its only 4 games into the season....ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN
stastnysforever Posted - 06/07/2007 : 16:28:05
quote:
Originally posted by Mikhailova

ZEEEEEERRRRROOOOOOOO!!!!


Nice

what do Calgary and a tea bag have in common- they're both only good for one cup
Mikhailova Posted - 06/06/2007 : 19:41:03
ZEEEEEERRRRROOOOOOOO!!!!
Mikhailova Posted - 05/31/2007 : 17:35:27
That does make for an interesting topic, Guest. With teams this evenly matched, one could say each has a 50-50 chance at winning (it's not like it's the Ducks and the Flyers where they have completely different skill levels). And based on some probability law (the name I've forgotten), you multiply the chances of subsequent, independent events occuring by each other. It's interesting, however, that throughout history, the team that's down by more never gets it's 50% chance, it always seems to go the other way. Probably because the other team only needs to win one game, and there's a greater chance of them winning just one (a 50% chance) than there is for the other team to win 2 straight in a row (25% -- .5 x .5). But it really comes down to the skill of the players and how evenly matched they are for both teams that determine the 'chances' of winning, and judging skill is subjective, so it doesn't really tie in well with the objective world of math. So to make a long (and rather nerdy) post short, let's just say Ottawa's pretty much lost any shot at the Cup.
Guest7418 Posted - 05/31/2007 : 17:17:50
quote:
Originally posted by Mikhailova

As of now, Ottawa has to win 4 straight games. The probablility of them winning each is 50%. The probability of them winning 4 in a row is .5 x .5 x .5 x .5, or .0625; 6.25%. Anaheim only has to win 2 straight games. The probablility of them winning them in a row is .5 x .5, or .25; 25%. The odds are against you, Ottawa.

Of course, if Ottawa wins the next two, the winner of game 6 has a 50% chance at winning game 7 and thus the series, since they will have lead 3-2. Whereas the loser of game 6 has a 25% shot at winning both the next games and then the Cup. The outcome could change based on the winner of the next two games. If Anaheim wins game 3 though, it's pretty much home free for them. Ottawa may win the next one, or even the next two, but Anaheim will only have to win once.



Sorry this is completely inaccurate. You cannot calculate stats this way.

It's going to be pretty difficult for Ottawa to come back and win (only 1 team in NHL history has done that from their current position) but it is still possible. Perhaps not probable, but possible. No statistical answer can define this however. unless you want to repeat the 1/100 chance of their current situation and somehow prove that this historic stats still holds.
leafsfan_101 Posted - 05/31/2007 : 15:43:29
LOL i had the best prediction so far. And Im a Leafs fan. I don't no if I should be proud or disgusted.

Second place is only first place of the losers.
Mikhailova Posted - 05/30/2007 : 19:53:23
As of now, Ottawa has to win 4 straight games. The probablility of them winning each is 50%. The probability of them winning 4 in a row is .5 x .5 x .5 x .5, or .0625; 6.25%. Anaheim only has to win 2 straight games. The probablility of them winning them in a row is .5 x .5, or .25; 25%. The odds are against you, Ottawa.

Of course, if Ottawa wins the next two, the winner of game 6 has a 50% chance at winning game 7 and thus the series, since they will have lead 3-2. Whereas the loser of game 6 has a 25% shot at winning both the next games and then the Cup. The outcome could change based on the winner of the next two games. If Anaheim wins game 3 though, it's pretty much home free for them. Ottawa may win the next one, or even the next two, but Anaheim will only have to win once.
Guest4900 Posted - 05/01/2007 : 07:39:05
quote:
Originally posted by Saku Steen

I voted 1 percent... every team has a chance though. So if there are 16 teams, that would mean each team would be 0.16. Right?

I've figured it out, the guys gotta play like girls!



I agree that each team has a chance to win, but the math is a little off. Each team would have a 6.25% chance of winning, sorry for sounding nerdy. I think Ottawa's chances are slim, either them or jersey will most likely face buffalo, buffalo will be too much for any team, theyre too deep.
semin-rules Posted - 05/01/2007 : 05:30:54
Yeah, when Ottawa beats New Jersey, they are going to play New York. And they will win that but lose to San Jose or Detriot in the finals. If Buffalo wins their series, then Ottawa will be out in that series

~~~~~Great season Stars, better luck next year~~~~~
Mikhailova Posted - 04/28/2007 : 10:23:07
If Ottawa wins, they will be playing the winner of the Buffalo/NYR series.
semin-rules Posted - 04/27/2007 : 20:27:38
quote:
Originally posted by jbraiter

no because they are in the eastern confrence and SJ/Detroit are in the west



Yeah, thats what I thought, I just wasn't sure.

~~~~~Great season Stars, better luck next year~~~~~
jbraiter Posted - 04/27/2007 : 16:51:26
no because they are in the eastern confrence and SJ/Detroit are in the west
semin-rules Posted - 04/27/2007 : 16:29:40
Ottawa would play the winner of the San Jose/Detriot series right?
If they do, they will lose to either of those teams.

~~~~~Great season Stars, better luck next year~~~~~
1 Crosby fan Posted - 04/27/2007 : 16:16:19
I say 25% of a chance

Viktor Kozlov is my hero
HasekFan39 Posted - 04/25/2007 : 15:58:04
I say they would get into the 3rd round and lose

GO SENS GO!
Kashmire Posted - 04/21/2007 : 18:11:50
Parise, Zajac, Langenbrunner, Gionta, Elias, Gomez
VS
Heatley, Spezza, Alfredsson, Fisher, Vermette

I think NJ's offence will be the trump in this matchup. Ottawa is a team that scores around 2-4 maybe 5 goals per game. With the hockey smarts of both NJ's defense and offence not much is going to get threw Brodeur...NJ will be more pumped in the 2nd round and will play smart, fast paced hockey. Sorry sen fans but NJ in 5
Mikhailova Posted - 04/21/2007 : 17:57:15
My guess is NJ is going to win their series. So then the Senators will play the Devils (hmmm...what a matchup ). That's going to be a close call, but Brodeur can pull them through. Both teams have good skaters--Alfredsson, Heatley, Spezza vs. Elias, Gomez, Langenbrunner, so it will come down to goaltending. Brodeur wins over Emery. Heatley can attempt all the goals he wants, but if Brodeur stops them it won't mean a thing. I'm not thinking Ottawa will get past the second round, but if they do they'll certainly be stopped in the third when they face Buffalo (But c'mon, the Sabres vs. NYR...who do you THINK will win that? That's a no-brainer)
Saku Steen Posted - 04/21/2007 : 10:58:57
quote:
Originally posted by Mikhailova

quote:
Originally posted by Saku Steen

I voted 1 percent... every team has a chance though. So if there are 16 teams, that would mean each team would be 0.16. Right?


Nope. 100%/16 teams = 6.25. Each team has a 6.25% chance of winning. Gotta love math eh?




At least I was close.... come on its the weekend!!

I've figured it out, the guys gotta play like girls!
Mikhailova Posted - 04/21/2007 : 08:54:04
quote:
Originally posted by Saku Steen

I voted 1 percent... every team has a chance though. So if there are 16 teams, that would mean each team would be 0.16. Right?


Nope. 100%/16 teams = 6.25. Each team has a 6.25% chance of winning. Gotta love math eh?
leafsfan_101 Posted - 04/21/2007 : 08:29:27
I think that all of the teams in the playoffs go as far as the goalie will take them simply put, if your goalie sucks then so does your team. Emery looks solid as of now, so if he can keep it up so will the stellar play of the Sens.

When life gives you lemons throw them at the Ottawa Senators and their fans and hope it gets them in the eyes ;)
Leafs Rock Planet Posted - 04/21/2007 : 06:02:39
Not even a 30% chance they win the cup. There is just no heart on that team. Alson the leaders have to be the leaders.(which they have been doing so far)

Always next year!!
Saku Steen Posted - 04/21/2007 : 03:40:25
I voted 1 percent... every team has a chance though. So if there are 16 teams, that would mean each team would be 0.16. Right?

I've figured it out, the guys gotta play like girls!
semin-rules Posted - 04/20/2007 : 20:30:45
I put 25% chance. They have a great team but they are playing some teams that are better than them.

~~~~~COME ON STARS, LETS BRING IT HOME~~~~~
PuckNuts Posted - 04/20/2007 : 20:08:05
If Ottawa traded Hasek, what did they get?...

He was an UFA...



Lead, follow, or get out of the way...
HasekFan39 Posted - 04/20/2007 : 19:21:04
So why did they trade Hasek to Detroit? To me, it's dumb that they traded him.
Kashmire Posted - 04/20/2007 : 19:01:41
Well...They are facing Buffalo so I think their chances are slim...I said 25% though it should be slightly lower, in my opinion.
leafsfan_101 Posted - 04/20/2007 : 18:51:47
I would say they've got a 75% chance if their big guns can step it up, if the team they face ges into penalty trouble and if they play fast, speedy hockey.

When life gives you lemons throw them at the Ottawa Senators and their fans and hope it gets them in the eyes ;)
Mikhailova Posted - 04/20/2007 : 18:51:40
With Buffalo in the playoffs, 0%

To rate it on percent chance is a little vague, but I'd definitely say Ottawa's going to go pretty far. They won't make it past the third round though.

P.S. Good to have another Hasek fan on the forums! So many people here are Hasek-bashers while the Dominator is my all-time favorite goalie! Join the club, lol

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