| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| redneck76ca |
Posted - 09/15/2009 : 20:36:53
I have been following the tsn.ca season predictions for the upcoming NHL season and have come to one conclusion: Scott Cullen is a fool.
Check out the predictions:Calgary behind Edmonton in the standings. In fact Montreal and Calgary are apparently worse off than Florida and CBJ according to the brilliant mind of Scott Cullen.
What a fool? |
| 8 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| irvine |
Posted - 10/13/2009 : 18:29:33
I don't think Scott Cullen is a fool, to be honest. In fact, I think that's a great (yet different,) way to give Power Rankings. We can go by "Well, Pittsburgh have Crosby & Malkin so they must be better than Boston who have Savard" on paper. Yet, with all things factored in, overall Boston MAY have a more well-rounded team in production, defense and goaltending combined.
I like how does this, seems interesting. How accurate it is, i'm not sure yet. But I can't see it being way off, to be honest.
Irvine |
| Guest0842 |
Posted - 10/13/2009 : 18:13:03
quote:
Originally posted by Guest7141
If you read his articles on a regular basis, he tells you how it is calculated.
Here it is Cullen's ranking explained in his own words.
http://tsn.ca/blogs/scott_cullen/?id=294742 |
| Guest7141 |
Posted - 09/16/2009 : 19:15:46
I actually like Scott Cullen's rankings. They are statistically based rather than gut feeling based. If you read his articles on a regular basis, he tells you how it is calculated. I like the fact that if a team goes 3-0-0 for the week but has lost their best player, the team's ranking will drop, regardless of their record. So let's say Washington is 10-0-0 and Ovechkin is on pace to score 90 goals and then gets hurt. Guess what? Washington's ranking plummets until someone(s) takes over from the production that was lost by Ovie. It is actually much more sophisticated than that but you get the drift.
I'm just not sure what stats he used to compile this list (was it last season's dat or some sort of career blend). Based on what I see it is based on last year's regular season stats. I'm not sure what he does for rookies.
So based on the two items above, if you read the roster of Calgary and Florida as an example, I think adding Clemensen (who was excellent statistically in 08-09) and Leopold (avg) and losing Bouwmeester (above average statistically) did more to boost Florida's ranking than Calgary adding JBo (above avg) but losing out on Cammalleri (good) and Leopold (average). Statistically that makes sense. I'm sure there were other moves but none were as impacting as these transactions. So Calgary a 7th seed in West loses a significant piece (Cammi) and gaining an average piece (statistically speaking folks - JBo) while Florida 9th in the East gains some fairly major contributors (Leopold and Clemensen) and loses an above avg contributor (JBo). Makes sense to me.
Once the season starts, the ranking gets reshuffled based the weekly production. Is this the best way? No, but to me it is the most logical and most easily defendable. There is no favorite team bias since the math doesn't allow it.
By the way, do you know what the calculation difference is between I don't know Florida and Calgary in Cullen's algorithm? I don't either but it is likely very slim. Why don't you ask him? |
| leafsfan_101 |
Posted - 09/16/2009 : 14:43:26
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Before we call this guy out and burn him at the stake, ask yourself this.
Who is going to score for Calgary??? If you take Cammellari's 39 goals out of the mix, Calgary would rank similar in offense as Nashville, Phoenix, and Tampa Bay. They have done nothing to replace that scoring.
Although I agree that the rankings are a little out, to think that Calgary is a middle of the pack team is not that far off.
We will see. Time will tell.
I'd venture to say that Calgary will not be a middle of the pack team. Cammy got 49% goals on the powerplay (19, to be exact) and was playing on a line with Iggy and Olli Jokinen. I expect whoever plays with those two this season will receive stats not to far off. And even so, Iginla and Jokinen should be able to handle whatever left over slack that third person on their line lacks (although Rene Bourque is said to be able to play as Cammy did last season) so they will not be terrible. Their defense is so strong that, barring injury, they are in my opinion the top seed in the Northwest Division.
On to the topic at hand, what Scott Cullen is doing isn't predicting Calgary to be ahead of Edmonton, or Florida ahead of Montreal, Toronto or Tampa in the REGULAR SEASON. Cullen is saying which teams, from a fantasy perspective, are most appealing. This means that he thinks that, in general for a fantasy pool, players from Florida outweigh, and will give you, more points then from Montreal. That is not to say he predicts Ales Hemsky of Edmonton (higher in standings) to get more points than Jarome Iginla of Calgary(lower in standings), but in general you are better off picking more Edmonton players in your pool to get you points as opposed to Calgary.
I think it's a dumb idea, but not enough to complain about. |
| JOSHUACANADA |
Posted - 09/16/2009 : 14:19:29
And no significant backup goalie in Calgary. Even so did Florida sign JT and Hedman while I was away. This guy is stoned. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 09/16/2009 : 11:37:48
Before we call this guy out and burn him at the stake, ask yourself this.
Who is going to score for Calgary??? If you take Cammellari's 39 goals out of the mix, Calgary would rank similar in offense as Nashville, Phoenix, and Tampa Bay. They have done nothing to replace that scoring.
Although I agree that the rankings are a little out, to think that Calgary is a middle of the pack team is not that far off.
We will see. Time will tell. |
| Leafs81 |
Posted - 09/16/2009 : 09:55:11
I totally agree. Anybody could do predictions and it would look good in some people minds. And there will always be people who disagree. But this guy, to get paid for what he does, is pretty aweful.
So far it's in the west
15. Phoenix
14. Colorado
13. Los Angeles
12. Dallas
11. Nashville
10. Calgary
9. Edmonton
And in the east
15. NY Islanders
14. Tampa Bay
13. Atlanta
12. Toronto
11. Ottawa
10. NY Rangers
9. Buffalo
8. Montreal
7. Florida
So he has Minnesota, Columbus, Edmonton and St Louis over Calgary. And he has Florida over Montreal, NY Rangers and even Tampa Bay and Ottawa. |
| Axey |
Posted - 09/16/2009 : 09:37:05
Yeah Florida loses their best player but somehow move up the rankings? |
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