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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1041 Posts

Posted - 06/29/2013 :  22:57:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Andyhack. That 2009 playoff run for Boston you brought up...which kessel was part of and the bruins were elimated by the flyers ...1 ) how old was kessel then ? 19 or 20 maybe ? Do you think he was the same player then as he is today ?....2 ) didn't krecjo ( their main man ) get knocked out of the playoffs that year by Richards ?...3) did Bergeron play that playoff season ?.....4 ) did Boston have d sidenberg then ?...I'm not sure ...
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1041 Posts

Posted - 06/29/2013 :  23:46:50  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Just checked out a couple of things andyhack on that 2009 Boston team kessel was on compared to the 2011 team after kessel was traded.... In 2009 kessel was just a kid and still was Boston's 2nd overall scorer......berg did play on 2009 but krecji was knocked out of the playoffs....in 2009 for Boston..... A young kessel...no krecji....no Marchand ....no Horton .....no d sidenberg.......not exactly the same team that won in 2011, wouldn't you say ?.......but of course the whopping 5 million cap space the the bruins gained after the kessel trade solved all their problems...........................................here's some interesting playoff stats on seguin.....2011 goals 3 Goals in 13 games @ 23 %.......2 years later, 1 goal in 22 games @ .045 %......that's a 22.5 % drop off.........points in 2011 were 7 in 13 games @ 54 %.......in 2013 it's 8 points in 22 games @ 36 %.....that's a 18 % drop off rate......hmmmmm.....interesting heh ??
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andyhack
PickupHockey Pro



Japan
891 Posts

Posted - 06/30/2013 :  01:22:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Duke. You are factually incorrect on Krecji. He was knocked out in 2010 against the Flyers, not 2009 (when the Bruins lost to the Canes in the second round).

It is true that the 2008-2009 Bruins didn't have Seidenberg or Marchand or Horton. But they had Marc Savard and a healthy Bergeron, and a couple of other guys back then who were okay offensively (20 goal guys). Offensively anyway, it is easy to argue that they were in just as good shape as the 2011 team, especially the one without Bergeron in the Tampa Bay series.

Sure, Phil was younger then. In fact, he was 21. But Tyler was younger than that in Game 2 of the Tampa series, when, with Bergy out, the team down a game and facing a possible 0-2 deficit going into Tampa, and all the attention of the world on him, he came through bigtime for his team (an undeniably significant actual benefit to the Bruins from the trade we are discussing, no matter what other, really not so interesting, statistics you throw out on the table).

Also, another ironic thing on this thread is Crock's use of the Pollock "adage," as Sam Pollock was in fact famous for trading for draft picks, not for trading them away. He was also famous for having his eye on the Cup (and winning them) by the way. A guy as smart as Sam Pollock would understand that there are exceptions to rules and contexts to every situation and that his comment, while perhaps generally true, isn't always true.

Edited by - andyhack on 06/30/2013 01:26:24
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1041 Posts

Posted - 06/30/2013 :  02:51:06  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Dam andyhack, ur a night owl like me lol.....didn`t finish my stats, was at work and had to leave, nightshift

Ok lets examine Seguins playoff stats so far compared to kessel`s....this is what truely measures a player, isn`t it ??....you know the old saying, crunch time.....the real man shows up ......when the going gets tough, the tough get going and all.

Firstly, keep in mind that 68 % of kessel`s playoff games were played at roughly the SAME AGE as Seguins....keep this in mind......within a year or so anyway

Seguins playoff stats..( all games...42 total )
has .......6 goals.......scoring at a rate of ....14....%
has.......18 points......scoring at a rate of.....43...%

Kessels playoff stats...( all games...22 total )
has.......13 goals.....scoring at a rate of......59....%
has......21 points.....scoring at a rate of......96 ...%

So lets see....goals, kessel is up by....45....%
.......................points, kessel is up by....53....%

both categories combined.....kessel tops Seguin by...98 %.....

and guest 4096, these numbers are not from some fantasy hockey league.......these numbers are from as you say REAL playoff hockey games.........and these numbers are also from this universe, not from this alternate universe you speak of.

So looking at these numbers ( according to the vast majority of posters ) us leaf fans should be saying to ourselves.......dam, we are stuck with kessel and could have had Seguin !!!!!!.......yeah guys, what a loss for us leaf fans, what a pity.

The leafs obtained from Boston a top 10 scorer for the past 2 seasons.....a point per game player for the last 2 seasons......so far, a constant 30 goal annual per season scorer........a player who has blazing, speed.......has a shot release compatable to Ovi and Stamkos.......a point per game playoff performer......a player who is turning into a great playmaker.......a player who is never injured and is still only 25 years old......quite a resume

But of course Boston wins this trade.....yep they sure do....and losing this type of player helped Boston because they gained 5 million in cap space......try telling that to Peirre Mcguire or Glenn Healy, they will probably both agree with you all.

Players like kessel may only come along once in a decade for any team, if you got a chance to add them to ur team, grab it.

I don`t know where Seguins numbers are going in the future but this playoff year, has an older, more mature player with more ice time.....his numbers has regressed.....

What i do know is......the leafs have one heck of a player, ( a sure game breaker ) in Phil kessel.



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Guest4096
( )

Posted - 06/30/2013 :  04:27:28  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by The Duke
and guest 4096, these numbers are not from some fantasy hockey league.......these numbers are from as you say REAL playoff hockey games.........and these numbers are also from this universe, not from this alternate universe you speak of.

So points are the only measure of how good a player is then right? Which means Kunitz is a better player than Toews.
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Guest4096
( )

Posted - 06/30/2013 :  09:49:48  Reply with Quote
quote]Originally posted by The Duke
and guest 4096, these numbers are not from some fantasy hockey league.......these numbers are from as you say REAL playoff hockey games.........and these numbers are also from this universe, not from this alternate universe you speak of.
[/quote]Or that Bickell is a better player than Toews, Sharp and Hossa.
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1041 Posts

Posted - 06/30/2013 :  11:05:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Guest 4096, you are hand-picking....ur picking out a player who had 1 good season and blowing it up.....any1 can do this through the history of the league.....Has kunitz`s career stats topped that of Teow`s ?......i don`t really know....just asking ?......If his career stats does top Teows than maybe Kunitz is a better player than he is given credit for.

You can go to any playoff year and pick out that player who out - done himself....in that one season...remember John Druce ?

These stats and numbers i`ve listed above are based on 3 playoffs season !!!!.....this is not the same as the 1 flash in the pan season you are hand - picking.......its not the same thing at all as you are saying......

Both players are young ( Seguin and kessel ) they`ve both had 3 playoff seasons .....roughly 70 % of kessels playoff experiences were played in Boston, the same place where Seguin has played.........now how can you get much closer than that ??

These numbers should work out true.......unlike the 1 year you can pick out anywhere throughout the history of the league, where 1 joe blow player did this or that.

As to measuring a player by his numbers ( point totals ) guest....let me tell you this much.....his paycheck is damn well measured by his numbers......you pick out all the highest paid NHL forwards in the league and see what % of them put up small numbers...........then come back here and tell me that a player is not measured by his points.........

Owner`s, GM`s. a players peers, commentators, the media, and fans all measure players by their point totals.....thats the way its always been and always will be, thats just a pro atlete fact.........like it or lump it.....the player`s with the big numbers receive the Big bucks.......and get hero praise and endorsements.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5799 Posts

Posted - 06/30/2013 :  11:07:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4096

quote:
Originally posted by The Duke
and guest 4096, these numbers are not from some fantasy hockey league.......these numbers are from as you say REAL playoff hockey games.........and these numbers are also from this universe, not from this alternate universe you speak of.

So points are the only measure of how good a player is then right? Which means Kunitz is a better player than Toews.



I already tried this angle guest. Some people just don't get it.


BTW Duke, I don't think anyone is arguing that Kessel is the better player, today. I'll admit, he's done better in TO than I thought he would and yes, he's a true top sniper in the league! Yes, he's even improving defensively. What it all boils down to though, is how good is Seguin gonna be, how good is Hamilton gonna be and how good is Knight gonna be? Yes, Kessel could get even better. But IF, and that's an IF, Seguin and Hamilton live up to expectations, it's not gonna matter how good Kessel is, the Leafs in the end, would have been better with the package they sent Boston.

Here's another way to look at it, as was mentioned a couple times already, prob back on pages 3 and 5 (just a guess). After the Leafs failed as they did the two years following the trade and it was determined which picks they were going to be giving Boston, EVERY single GM in the league would have taken the Boston side of this trade if given the option. Oh wait, Burke being as stubborn as he is, may have stuck with Kessel to save face. Maybe Kessel becomes a 50G guy for the next 8 years and Seguin retires tomorrow to become a Baptist priest, Hamilton comes out of the closet and is shunned by team mates and decides to quit and Knight decides to pursue his dream of the Olympic gymnastics team? Then, sure, Leafs win the deal, but until we see what becomes of these three, it's tough to say. I will give you this.......It's a lot less one sided than it looked to me a year or two ago!
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Guest4096
( )

Posted - 06/30/2013 :  14:48:33  Reply with Quote
We all agree Kessel is the more productive player right now. So what? How does that make it so that the Leafs win the trade? Based on an addage old wives tales about the team with the better player wins the trade, is that it you want to make this point? So you can use an old wives tale, myth or fable to argue your point? Ha ha! Still lose.
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1041 Posts

Posted - 06/30/2013 :  17:23:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The bottom line here is the leafs lost out on a damn fine player in Seguin....and lost what will be a real steady d- man in Hamiliton.....I will argue that the leafs have replaced what Hamiliton brings in Cody Franson.....a team only uses 6 defenseman.... seguin is the leafs greatest loss......BUT......they gained a star player in Kessel.......BOTH teams win here....neither team really lost
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 07/01/2013 :  08:45:54  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Well, this has been a wonderful debate. Alex, Guest 4096, you guys are great writers. If only your hockey knowledge was as good as your writing.

Alex - your "hypothetical example" of Stamkos for Hall, Eberle, Shultz, Yakupov and the kitchen sink is intriguing. I'll give you that.

But you are looking at the problem from upside down. The adage whoever gets the best player in the deal wins the trade - is meant as an analysis tool - not as a tool for accessing hypotheticals.

As armchair GMs here, we need to use the adage to evaluate a Trade's Overall Value. I wouldn't suggest going into a deal believing that you would trade your entire team for Steven Stamkos and somehow come out on top. What I am suggesting, is that of all the trades that we have seen throughout history - that adage seems to hold true.

At least, I can't think of an example where the adage hasn't- with time - finally been proven true in the end. (The Lindros deal comes very close).

So, by all means. Can you name me a real example in history where this adage was proven wrong?

Guest 4096 - your "but this is what happened - the trade was Kessel for Seguhamilnight - we can't talk about X% anymore" argument is obnoxious and dangerously incorrect.

Boston drew the Ace of Spades out of a deck of cards here - and you are trying to tell us all that this is somehow "reality".

Regardless, I have entertained the notion of comparing the three players for the sake of the thread. But before I do that (and Alex too), can you address MY question? IF this trade had ended up being Kessel for Gundbranson, Hamilton, and Knight - would we even be talking??

Now, let's move on.

As far as Burke and the Maple Leafs are concerned, you have to give up value in order to get value. If you want to get a Kessel, you have to give up something. In this case, it happened to be Tyler Seguin.

If you compare Kessel to Seguin straight up - Toronto wins the trade. Kessel is a better player than Seguin. _WE_ have all agreed to that.

So, where's the debate here? Kessel is a better player. No, points aren't everything - and obviously fantasy hockey means almost nothing in the grand scheme of things. But, Kessel is still a better player. Again, points are everything. But, they are something. And when the Points are that slanted in favour of one player or another, they are significant.

Everyone -

It seems to me that the Pro-Boston argument hinges on three things:

A.) Boston won the Cup in 2011.
B.) Tyler Seguin will get better.
C.) Dougie Hamilton will get better.

A.) - Nothing to do with Seguin. Seguin didn't even play in the First Two Rounds of the run. He had a big game in Game 3 vs. Tampa Bay. If you call that a "significant" contribution, then I can't help you. That's like liberally loading Butter on your Bread even if you have a cholesterol problem. Seguin barely helped in the 2011 run.

B.) Will Seguin get better? I don't know. I, personally, think that he will get a "little" bit better. But, he will not touch Phil Kessel. However, this is one of those things where we all have to say, "let's wait and see."

C.) Dougie Hamilton is not as good as everyone on this forum is making him out to be. He lacks Hockey Sense. IF he gets better, it will be so far down the road that we will all have forgotten about this debate (I know, hard to believe). But, watching him skate. I'm going to say that he develops into a career third-string defenceman (like a Francois Bouillon or another Adam McQuaid). Good, important players. Don't get me wrong. But, hardly worth mentioning. Certainly not the Tipping Point of the argument.

In return, The Leafs get Phil Kessel. And really, this whole thing about Phil Kessel just really confuses me - it seems like everywhere he goes, people underestimate his value. Guys, HE HAS FINISHED IN THE TOP 10 IN SCORING TWO YEARS IN A ROW NOW. He has been over a point a game for two straight seasons. He has 30+ Goals in FIVE STRAIGHT SEASONS. (pro-rated 2013). Guys, he is a Star.

Incredibly, Rick Nash got traded for Anisimov, Dubinsky and a First Round Draft Pick - and that trade hasn't even generated even a peep on our insanity called a forum here. Yet, you guys are giving me a hard time. Guys, Phil Kessel is better than Rick Nash .

So, where's the love for Phil Kessel? Do me a favour everyone, and go look at Phil Kessel's career stats right now. Tell me that this isn't a Star Player. Toronto won the trade.



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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1899 Posts

Posted - 07/01/2013 :  10:42:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I am done trading punches with Crock and Duke on this. The points they have made have been knocked down, yet like a dumb fighter they dont know when to stay down and they seem to circle around to points already been considered, yet mostly answer these points against with, if the Leafs did this, or did that, which they did not or have not.

If you think Toronto won the trade great, but with the blue eyed tint, you have to realize you are slanted to think this way. Kessel is a hell of a goal scorer, but he is expensive and not well rounded, as evidenced by the comparison of his poor +/- before and after this trade, even when comparing Seguins stellar +/- on the team which traded Kessel.

I point to Kessel poorer $/point or goal ratio and you throw out incorrect numbers to back up just how great Kessel is. For your information Sequin did not make $850,000 last year, he made $3.55 million for the last 3 years, based on performance bonus's he acheived and even though his pay was similar yet lessor, he still performed at a greater $/points and goal ratio.

Is Boston better without Kessel, yes and thats why Boston traded him. If you consider all the factors (salary to sign other players who contributed to cup run, roster depth from drafted players and the players received who can play in more situations at both end of the ice)

Do I think Toronto got the best player in this trade, sure if you only count points to date while not considering others. But would Toronto have benifited more had they not made this trade, I think yes. They were not a playoff team until this year and if Kessel doesn't sign back with Toronto they will have lost all that depth for a 3-4 year rental. A long term rental, yes.

Would I put Kessel in my lineup before Seguin, Hamiliton and Knight combined, No! I think Kessel is an overpayment and the trade to get him was an overpayment by the Leafs. I think next year the combined stats from the 3 players Boston received will eclipse Kessels offensive stats alone and the 2 playing now provide greater all around contributions than Kessel does.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1899 Posts

Posted - 07/01/2013 :  11:01:28  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

Incredibly, Rick Nash got traded for Anisimov, Dubinsky and a First Round Draft Pick - and that trade hasn't even generated even a peep on our insanity called a forum here. Yet, you guys are giving me a hard time. Guys, Phil Kessel is better than Rick Nash .

So, where's the love for Phil Kessel? Do me a favour everyone, and go look at Phil Kessel's career stats right now. Tell me that this isn't a Star Player. Toronto won the trade.


Im sorry, did you just compare Phil Kessel to Rick Nash. Your right Nash was traded for 2 roster players, 1 of which was a top 6 and a late 1st round pick from a contending team. Because Nash is a player with a greater career points per game, 8 - 30+ goals per season and has acheive 2 seasons of 40+ goals in a season, which Kessel has yet to do and all this for what has been considered the s***tiest team in the league for the 10 years he played and was captain there. And you think Kessel is better than Nash? Hell Nash outscored Kessel goal wise last year, on an offensively challenged team and ended up +/- 19 better than Kessel. Blue tinted arguement again my friend.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "

Edited by - JOSHUACANADA on 07/01/2013 12:17:57
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5799 Posts

Posted - 07/01/2013 :  11:27:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

Well, this has been a wonderful debate. Alex, Guest 4096, you guys are great writers. If only your hockey knowledge was as good as your writing.

Crock, if your hockey knowledge rivalled your imagination, you'd be a genius. Unfortunately, you're far closer to being Peter Pan than you are Sam Pollock!

quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
Alex - your "hypothetical example" of Stamkos for Hall, Eberle, Shultz, Yakupov and the kitchen sink is intriguing. I'll give you that.

But you are looking at the problem from upside down. The adage whoever gets the best player in the deal wins the trade - is meant as an analysis tool - not as a tool for accessing hypotheticals.

As armchair GMs here, we need to use the adage to evaluate a Trade's Overall Value. I wouldn't suggest going into a deal believing that you would trade your entire team for Steven Stamkos and somehow come out on top. What I am suggesting, is that of all the trades that we have seen throughout history - that adage seems to hold true.

At least, I can't think of an example where the adage hasn't- with time - finally been proven true in the end. (The Lindros deal comes very close).

So, by all means. Can you name me a real example in history where this adage was proven wrong?


Sure! Since you are so high on Sam Pollock's "saying", "wive's tale", "adage", etc, why don't we start with one of his most genius moves? Do you have any idea of the story behind the Hab's drafting of Guy Lafleur? Do you have any clue how the Habs were able to come by selecting 1st overall that year after having just won the cup??? It's not just the trade that got them the pick either. Here, indulge yourself in this little story: http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/5/29/4375164/sam-pollock-a-beautiful-mind-part-ii-how-the-habs-got-guy-lafleur

Here's another example that maybe fits this Kessel deal better. In 1995, Calgary sent Joe Nieuwendyk to the Stars for Cory Millen and Jarome Iginla. Clearly Dallas got the best player at the time AND sure, they won a cup, BUT, Jarome Iginla sure as hell became a damn fine hockey player!

Here's another (I googled this one). Quebec trades Gaeten Duchesne, Alan Haworth and a 1st round draft pick to Washington for Dale Hunter and Clint Malarchuk. Hunter, at the time, was considered the best player in that deal. Malarchuk prob the 2nd best at the time. So, Washington won this trade, correct? Just like your Leafs and Kessel, right? Now, what ever became of that 1st round pick? Oh, nothing big really. Just some guy named Joe Sakic.

There's countless examples out there my friend. While I would agree that usually the team that gets the best player wins the deal, it's not ALWAYS the case! As I've said before, the Leafs may be able to say they won this deal and it's looking like it's closer than I once thought (as Seguin admittedly hasn't developed to the point I thought he would have). However, until we see all these players develop, we only have expectations and current team success to go by.




quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShightRegardless, I have entertained the notion of comparing the three players for the sake of the thread. But before I do that (and Alex too), can you address MY question? IF this trade had ended up being Kessel for Gundbranson, Hamilton, and Knight - would we even be talking??


Prob would still be talking about it, though it wouldn't be 14 pages and counting. If that were what the Bruins ended up with, by all means, i'd be saying Toronto "currently" would be winning the trade. There's always the chance that Gudbranson and Hamilton become the next Niedermayer and Pronger of course, but at that time (now), i'd give a big edge to Toronto. Like I keep trying to tell you, ask any GM who they'd rather have and most, if not all, would still (today) take Seguin, Hamilton and Knight. Countless times ive acknowledged the fact that Burke overvalued / overestimated his team at the time of the deal and though they'd be later picks. At the time of the deal, edge Toronto for sure, though not as much as you'd think because Kessel was still unproven over a long haul. At that time, most GMs would likely have chosen Kessel over the picks. Unfortunately, the Leafs sucked bad AND Boston drafted well.

quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
As far as Burke and the Maple Leafs are concerned, you have to give up value in order to get value. If you want to get a Kessel, you have to give up something. In this case, it happened to be Tyler Seguin.


EXACTLY!!! At that time, Toronto was desperate for a top line C and that's what Seguin was pegged to be. No way would Toronto have done that deal ESPECIALLY while throwing in two more parts!!!
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
If you compare Kessel to Seguin straight up - Toronto wins the trade. Kessel is a better player than Seguin. _WE_ have all agreed to that.

So, where's the debate here? Kessel is a better player. No, points aren't everything - and obviously fantasy hockey means almost nothing in the grand scheme of things. But, Kessel is still a better player. Again, points are everything. But, they are something. And when the Points are that slanted in favour of one player or another, they are significant.

Read these preceding two paragraphs again. Notice anything? Notice perhaps that you've made the trade a Kessel for Seguin deal straight up again?

Look, nobody's denying Kessel's success. I'm even admitting he's better than I thought he'd be and may still get better! BUT, you can't just ignore the fact that in this "salary cap" day and age, deals are more difficult to judge. You conveniently turn a blind eye to the fact that Boston had to make a deal and trade Kessel and at that time, were absolute underdogs to win any deal as teams knew they had to move him. However, they lucked out and got better return than they should have. Much better! AND, with the cap space cleared out, were able to add other pieces to what became a Stanley Cup Champion team! Your ignorance of these facts is what cracks me up when you question my hockey knowledge. Lol, thanks for the daily laugh........I won't even bother going into the Rick Nash part of your spiel.....

[/quote]

Edited by - Alex116 on 07/02/2013 10:20:29
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Guest4096
( )

Posted - 07/01/2013 :  12:27:42  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
Guest 4096 - your "but this is what happened - the trade was Kessel for Seguhamilnight - we can't talk about X% anymore" argument is obnoxious and dangerously incorrect.

Boston drew the Ace of Spades out of a deck of cards here - and you are trying to tell us all that this is somehow "reality".

Regardless, I have entertained the notion of comparing the three players for the sake of the thread. But before I do that (and Alex too), can you address MY question? IF this trade had ended up being Kessel for Gundbranson, Hamilton, and Knight - would we even be talking??

Huh? Yes. Boston drew an ace of spades. That is reality. They didn't draw a 2 of clubs. Why is it obnoxious and dangerously incorrect? They made a trade that turned out to be a 2nd overall pick. That second overall is Tyler Seguin. Then on top of that they got a 9th overall pick that is Dougie Hamilton and a 32nd overall pick in Jared Knight. That is reality. They did not get Gundbranson or Crosby or Taylor Hall or anyone else.

quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
If you compare Kessel to Seguin straight up - Toronto wins the trade. Kessel is a better player than Seguin. _WE_ have all agreed to that.

No what we have agreed is that right now Kessel has put up more points. Right now comparing a 25 yr old to a 21 yr old Kessel is more productive. But it does not necessarily make Kessel a better player. At the same age, they both are equally productive.

Right Seguin barely helped the Bruins win the cup like. As productive as Kessel was this year in the playoffs, Seguin did that in 2 games that year. Barely helped. Biggest understatement yet posted. Well then we could say the same, that Kessel barely helped Toronto get any better when since he has arrived.

No one is arguing about Rick Nash's trade because this is topic is about Kessel.

Still back to alternate realities and old wives tale argument which you got completely destroyed. And like Josh said, not smart enough to stay down.
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Guest2684
( )

Posted - 07/02/2013 :  09:52:09  Reply with Quote
Rumour that Boston may be willing to trade Seguin for a first and second round pick. If so, i guess we have to wait even longer to find out who won the Phil Kessel deal
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1041 Posts

Posted - 07/02/2013 :  11:15:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Joshua, you dont listen to my and crocs comments, you ( and other leaf haters ) just read them and flip them over, it doesn`t matter when we post facts about kessel being better then seguin.......you guys dont want to hear it, it doesnt exist for you even if its real......

You say ...sure kessel is better than seguin only if you count POINTS !!!!.....lmfao.....so what are you saying ? points isn`t a measureing stick ? what is ? showing up early for practice ??

kessel isnt a star you say because ...all he does is put up points.......lmao again.....he is not rounded......guess what joshua ? when you have players like kessel on ur team already....you pick up LOWER playoff point getters like seguin who are more rounded to do that other crap.

So if ur not rounded you are not that good....not a star....not too valuable .....i guess that is what you are saying......

So you wouldn`t have players on ur team like........B. Hull...M. Bossy.....Y. Kurri.....E. Malkin....A. Ovi......all these players ARE NOT rounded joshua....they just put up points !!!

You said you would put seguin / Hamiliton / knight in your lineup right now over kessel ???......joshua, are u on crack ?

I just posted kessels and Seguins playoff nombers above....70 % of those played at the same age on the SAME TEAM...!!!!!!!!
kessel fkin BLEW seguin out of the water...........

so instead of kessel in your lineup, you would rather have.....
1 ).....Seguin with way, way, way, way, lower playoff numbers
2 )....Hamiliton, who was not good enough in the playoffs......got yanked out of the lineup...UNDER- PERFORMING.....and
3 ) ....a guy they call knight who is in the AHL right now with s*** numbers and will probably never make the NHL.......

Gee Joshua.....you`d make a great GM.....i hope the Sens hire you, has leafs fans we would never have to worry about Ott anymore............................

This is Jouhua`s statement from his thread.........
Would I put Kessel in my lineup before Seguin, Hamiliton and Knight combined, No! I think Kessel is an overpayment and the trade to get him was an overpayment by the Leafs. I think next year the combined stats from the 3 players Boston received will eclipse Kessels offensive stats alone and the 2 playing now provide greater all around contributions than Kessel does.

Is this what you really think Joshua ??? what kind of foolish statement is this ?? ....did you consider the other 2 players the leafs have in their lineup because of those 2 roster spotws not taken up by hamiliton and knight ( if knight ever plays in the NHL ).......what do you think ? ...kessel takes up 3 roster spots.....

If you are going to get on with this childish-ness, lets look at it fom a more realistic view point.......ok...IF ...those 3 crack the bruins line-up.....and since the leafs dont have them.......the leafs have to fill in 3 roster spots.......ok
! ) Phil kessel
2) Cody Franson....filling in for Hamiliton
3) Joe Colbourne....filling in for knight

So, next season when you do your math Joshua......add these 3 players point totals together when comparing them to Bostons 3........meet me back here after next season and give me ur results.

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Guest2684
( )

Posted - 07/02/2013 :  11:22:57  Reply with Quote
I sure hope your not comparing Kessel to Bossy, Kurri, Ovie and Malkin all of whom are 50 goal per season players to a career 30 goal, sixty point player. Talk about apples to oranges. come on Duke wake up from that dream.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8186 Posts

Posted - 07/02/2013 :  11:39:43  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Did you guys all miss when Duke said that Kessel is a once in a decade talent?? C'mon, how can you argue with that logic! I mean, Kessel has been a point per game player for the past 2-3 seasons! No one. I mean no one in the past 10 years has done that. Nor will anyone do it in the future.

Kessel is a once in a decade talent according to Duke. That should say it all.

Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!

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Leafs81
PickupHockey Pro



716 Posts

Posted - 07/02/2013 :  14:49:55  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

Did you guys all miss when Duke said that Kessel is a once in a decade talent?? C'mon, how can you argue with that logic! I mean, Kessel has been a point per game player for the past 2-3 seasons! No one. I mean no one in the past 10 years has done that. Nor will anyone do it in the future.

Kessel is a once in a decade talent according to Duke. That should say it all.

Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!





Not that I agree but just to clarify.

I think Duke meant Kessel is a once in a lifetime talent on a TEAM. Not in the NHL in total.

In ten years some teams might get 3 or 4 players with Kessel's talent (or above) Like Pittsburgh Detroit, Chicago and some team will get one like Toronto, Columbus and some might get none like Nashville, Florida or Phoenix.

If this is just base on offense it could make more sense, if it's base on defensive players, goalies and forwards, then no.

Anyway Toronto only gets one player like that every ten years so. Sittler, MacDonald, Gilmour, Sundin, Kessel
You could slide in some players with significant talent that was just in and out like Mogilny for example.

Some team will only get one star every ten years. Some teams will get 3 or 4.

Does that make sense?

As for the debate, Kessel is a better player right now then Seguin, Hamilton or Knight, but Boston won the trade.

I don't like saying the team that gets the best player wins the trade because there's more to it in a trade. I don't like just using offensive stats to determine who's the better player. For that same reason I don't like when they give out the Conn Smythe, the Hart, the Norris or the Calder to the point leader in that category. It seems like the point leader is just too easy of a choice.

Even though Boston won this trade, it's not by a far margin because Kessel turned out to be exactly what was expected of him or he maybe even exceded his the expectations.

Edit : I also don't like saying the Bruins are a better team, they won a cup, to determine who won the trade. A championship team is not built with one trade. Like Boston getting Kaberle for a first rounder and Colbourne, ok Boston won the cup with Kaberle, but they got him to improve the pp and Kaberle was invisible throughout the playoffs and wasn't a significant contributor. (not sure Boston won the trade, but one could argue because they won the cup) It's a bit different because Kaberle was clearly a rental player and the team succeeded with that rental.

What I hate even most is using Seguin one game changing moment to determine who won the trade, too specific and too small of a sample. It's an argument, but not a really good one IMO.

Edited by - Leafs81 on 07/02/2013 14:57:50
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Guest4744
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Posted - 07/02/2013 :  15:08:11  Reply with Quote
I dont know where I saw it or if it was true (you stats junkies will prob know) but I saw something about Kessel being the 3rd highest scorer in the NHL over the past 3 seasons............not to shabby if you ask me.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1899 Posts

Posted - 07/02/2013 :  15:36:39  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hard to argue on the side of Seguin here when in the news his GM is being critical of his play. I am not switching sides in this debate as I feel he still has Kessel's potential and the other particulars of the deal have slanted this deal to Bostons favour for years. But it is hard to continue siding with Seguin in this debate.

Apparently he was being thrown around in trade rumours (Calgary being the report I heard most often). For either a 1st and 2nd or a prospect of his calibre. Should he move to a team with less depth and more room in the top 6, could he acheive more success? I think a move to Calgary has top6 written all over it and I think his stats would see the increase along with the ice time received.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1899 Posts

Posted - 07/02/2013 :  16:05:36  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
To Duke, I have repeatedly said Kessel stats wise has the advantage over just Seguin, but his poor 2 way play is why he was expendable to Boston, as evidenced by the extreme difference in +/- play on Boston, and Kessel's continued below #'s in +/- in Toronto. You can't simply look at points when comparing players.

Look at it like this, if you were picking a team from all the available NHL players for a tournament, you can put him in the top 6 of Canada, Russia, Sweden. So how far down the list is Kessel. Does he make your top 6 of any of those nations, not USA. I am think no way for Canada, Russia, Sweden. Neither does Seguin.

Would you take Kessel in your bottom 6 for those nations? No cause he doesn't excell at 2way play. Seguin probably would and the best part about Seguin is he might give you close to top 6 stats, from the bottom 6, while giving you a defensively strong game.

Crock, do I pick Kessel over Seguin in a fantasy draft, yes, but I have a few picks above Kessel I would draft well above him. Oh, if only the game of hockey was as easy as picking a fantasy draft.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "

Edited by - JOSHUACANADA on 07/02/2013 16:07:11
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The_Gipper
Rookie



Canada
213 Posts

Posted - 07/02/2013 :  16:34:33  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
a friend of mine put an interesting spin on this today. with Seguin rumored to perhaps being on the trading block because of cap space issues (mainly needed to sign Rask long-term). would Boston be opposed to trading him to Toronto if the Leafs offered Kadri and a high end prospect?

obviously not likely to happen, but i figure toss it out there to debate among the masses. and if anything it'll help this thread hit the 15 page mark.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5799 Posts

Posted - 07/02/2013 :  16:47:34  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by The_Gipper

obviously not likely to happen, but i figure toss it out there to debate among the masses. and if anything it'll help this thread hit the 15 page mark.



No offense Gipper, but no one has to come up with stuff like that to get us to page 15. It's just a matter of time.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1899 Posts

Posted - 07/02/2013 :  16:54:57  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Read another article today which said that TO managment was hesitant to put Kadri in the top line with Kessel as both are defensive liabilities. Seguin would certainly fill that bill in Toronto, but is he 1st line material? Is he worth a 1st and 2nd? Thats 2/3 of what Kessel fetched.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
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The_Gipper
Rookie



Canada
213 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  08:12:40  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
i think there is much more offensive upside to Seguin's game. he could be held back a little playing in Boston's defensive style system. and again only being 21 his best days are still in front of him.

still i find it a little hard to believe that Boston would "give up on him" so early in his career. taking a look at cap geek....if cap space is Boston's concern, then why not just buy out Marc Savard? it doesn't appear this guy will be playing in the NHL again, yet he's still taking up $4M for each of the next 4 seasons. i was surprised to see him still there.
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Guest2684
( )

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  09:06:42  Reply with Quote
You would normally not be allowed to buy out somone on long term injured reserve. I dont know if these 1 time buyouts apply in this case. if they are allowed to then i agree they should.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1899 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  10:11:11  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The guest is correct about not buying out an injured reserve player. I think it is less a matter of cap space and more a matter of having so many quality forwards that they are using a guy with top 6 potential and pay in a 3rd line roll. I heard he is also running in the wrong crowd in Boston whatever that means, but the article didn't elaborate, which I prefer. Too many speculative stories appear when a player has an off year.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
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Guest2684
( )

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  10:53:54  Reply with Quote
Hopefully no where near Aaron Hernandez.
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  11:39:41  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hilarious.

Joshua, you went from, "We've knocked down all of your points - yet you keep coming back for more." to "...it's hard to continue siding with the Seguin side of the argument..." All in the span of one week. I haven't even had time to respond to your original posting. Incredible!

Let us rehash the "Seguin is more bang for buck / Boston saved Cap Space on the deal" argument. You have to admit, it is kind of absurd to attempt to argue in factor of Boston here: Seguin's Cap Hit (5.75 million until 2017) is actually higher than Phil Kessel's (5.4 million until 2014). Last year, Phil Kessel was actually a lower Cap Hit than Seguin (and will be again in 2013-2014). (Am I wrong here Joshua?)

So, let's agree on numbers here. Let's compare Cap Hit vs. Goals/Pts. According to nhlnumbers.com:

Phil Kessel
Cap Hit: 5.4 million.
2012: 82GP, 37G, 45A, 82Pts
2013: 48GP, 20G, 32A, 52Pts

Over the past two season, Kessel is:
1 Goal per $189,476
1 Point per $80,597

Tyler Seguin
Cap Hit: 5.75 million.
2012: 81GP, 29G, 38A, 67Pts
2013: 48GP, 16G, 16A, 32Pts

Over the past two seasons, Seguin is:
1 Goal per $255,555
1 Point per $116,161

Joshua, please double-check those numbers that I took off of nhlnumbers.com. If they are wrong, please let me know.

Pending Joshua's approval, this shows us that actually, Kessel is more "bang for buck" than Seguin. Advantage: Toronto.

This argument is even further exacerbated by Dougie Hamilton and Jared Knight.

Dougie Hamilton
Cap Hit: 1.494 million
2013: 42GP, 5G, 11A, 16Pts

That's
1 Goal per $298,800
1 Point per $93,375

Jared Knight
Cap Hit: $870,000
2013: 0GP, 0G, 0A, 0Pts

In total, over the past two seasons and as far as the "players" involved in this trade are concerned: Boston has paid $712,177 per goal; while Toronto has paid a nice clean $189,476.

In terms of "bang for buck" (Joshua's First Law of Evaluation) - which team won the trade? The answer is Toronto. By a mile.








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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  11:54:38  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Guest 4096

I guess you're not a Poker Player...

It isn't a satisfactory argument to say, "yes, well, that IS what happened." when you are talking about luck of the draw. That's like applauding yourself for good play AFTER you suck out on the River.

Which - by the way - Boston did in this deal. Pulling Seguin out of the deck was like hitting one of three outs on the River. First, Toronto had to finish in the bottom 5 (about a 15% chance). Then, Toronto had to "win" the lottery (about a 20% chance). Then a Seguin had to be available (incalculable). In any event, you are claiming "victory" on the strength of a 20% chance from a 15% chance draw - about the equivalent of drawing an Ace out of a full deck of cards.

...Yet you are claiming "victory" on that. Do you feel satisfied with about that?
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Guest2272
( )

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  12:11:58  Reply with Quote
Oh Beans you are so good at making fun.....

Sure i said kessel is a once in a decade talent for most teams.....i think i am right......you just make fun at my statement as if im a looney toon.

You poke fun alright.....but you NEVER provide evidence to back up your fun - making....but of course you are RIGHT, you are Beans.

Lets look at out 2 favorite teams....Leafs / Oilers

Fact.....kessel just had 2 concec..point per game seasons

Do you know how many leaf players had back to back point per game seasons in the last 17 - 18 years or so ????.......i`ll tell you .....1 player....Matts Sundin.....

How about your mighty Oilers ??.....Do you know how far you have to go back to find an Oiler player who had 2 concec.....point per game seasons ???..........If you don`t, let me tell you.......it was 17 - 18 years.......Doug Weight

So, i am absolutely stupid for making a statement like.......kessel is a once in a decade talent for most teams.......BUT......
The leafs have had 1 PPG player ( in 2 concec seasons ) in 18 year.......
The Oilers have had 1 PPG player ( in 2 concec seasons ) in 18 years......

Lets do the math here Beans.......gee, thats 1 kessel type player for each team in 1 . 8 decades .......hmmm....and i`m the one who`s stupid........

Now Beans, you go on-line, do some research and come back here and tell me that i am wrong.......of course you will never admit that you are wrong.....even though i just proved you wrong.

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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1041 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  12:15:13  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Sorry Beans, in case you haven`t guessed already guest 2272 was me....forgot to log on....every1 have a nice UFA week..
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  12:18:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Congratulations (?) Alex, on coming up with two very marginal counter-examples to an adage that literally has the backing of every single other trade in history behind it.

Example 1: The Sam Pollock Lafleur example. I read that article. Very nice. But... I'm not sure what you are trying to show here with the example. Yes, Lafleur is a better player. Yes, Montreal got the better player. Yes, Montreal "won" the trade. How does that help your case??

Example 2: Nieuwendyk for Iginla is... Well, marginal at best. Joe Nieuwendyk man. Sure, Iginla is a great player. Who's better?? That's really tough to say to be perfectly honest. In any event, I'm not sure that Iginla is "better" than Nieuwendyk. Would anyone else like to offer their opinion on that? In my mind, they are pretty close to "equivalent" players.

Dallas won the Cup in 1999; and unlike Tyler Seguin, Joe Nieuwendyk played a very integral role on that team. So, that's something too.

In any event, it's hard to say that Nieuwendrk for Iginla is a counter-example of anything. It sounds like that trade pretty much worked out well for both teams.

Example 3: Again, I think that you are mistaking the meaning of the "adage". Quebec got Joe Sakic out of that deal. Therefore, Quebec wins the deal. How is this a counter example?


But, I understand what you are trying to do here. You are trying to flip the adage into "whoever gets the best player at the time..." But, no. That's NOT what the adage is. The adage is: "whoever gets the best player, wins the deal."

That being the case, as with most trades, we need some time before we can properly evaluate who "won" the trade. Really, we are debating in circles here - because the "REAL" answer to the question is: It's still too early to tell. We all still need a few more years to see where Kessel and Seguhamilnight's careers go.

BUT, at this time of writing, Kessel and the Leafs are winning this trade hands down. There is no indication that that will change either. It appears now - and probably going forward too - that Kessel is the best player in this deal. Toronto got him. Therefore, Toronto wins this deal.
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The_Gipper
Rookie



Canada
213 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  12:29:51  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight


So, let's agree on numbers here. Let's compare Cap Hit vs. Goals/Pts. According to nhlnumbers.com:

Phil Kessel
Cap Hit: 5.4 million.
2012: 82GP, 37G, 45A, 82Pts
2013: 48GP, 20G, 32A, 52Pts

Over the past two season, Kessel is:
1 Goal per $189,476
1 Point per $80,597

Tyler Seguin
Cap Hit: 5.75 million.
2012: 81GP, 29G, 38A, 67Pts
2013: 48GP, 16G, 16A, 32Pts

Over the past two seasons, Seguin is:
1 Goal per $255,555
1 Point per $116,161




Crock, i love reading your posts as they are quite amusing....but i don't believe Seguin's $5.75M cap hit comes into effect until this coming season. the last 3 season's he was on his entry level deal, which would have been a lower cost. so you're math is wrong...
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  12:54:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Last thing I would like to point out today.

It seems that everyone continues - with an almost stubborn denial of the facts - to underestimate Phil Kessel. He is a stellar player.

I have two questions to ask everyone. Answer these questions to yourself before going and looking at the stats:

1.) Would you have accepted this trade? Rick Nash for Tyler Seguin, Dougie Hamilton, Jared Knight??

2.) Who's a better player - Rick Nash, or Phil Kessel?


Now, let us compare Kessel to Rick Nash.


Phil Kessel
2011: 82GP, 32G, 32A, 64Pts
2012: 82GP, 37G, 45A, 82Pts (6th in league scoring)
2013: 48GP, 20G, 32A, 52Pts (7th in league scoring)

Last three years: 212GP, 198Pts

Rick Nash
2011: 75GP, 32G, 34A, 66Pts
2012: 82GP, 30G, 29A, 59Pts (59th in league scoring)
2013: 44GP, 21G, 21A, 42Pts (27th in league scoring)

Last three years: 201GP, 167Pts

Over the past three seasons, Phil Kessel hasn't missed a game. He has finished in the Top 10 in scoring twice. He has five straight seasons with 30 or more goals (pro-rated strike total for 2013).

Rick Nash is a nice comparison player. Very often, I have found that the same people who claim a Boston victory in the Kessel trade are the same people who draft Rick Nash over Phil Kessel in Hockey Pools - with the mistaken belief that Rick Nash is a "better" player than Phil Kessel.

Yet, that is just simply not the case. Phil Kessel has 30 points (average of 10 a season) more than Rick Nash over the past three seasons. Over the past two seasons, the gap is widening even more: 134pts for Kessel compared to Nash's 101pts.

Now, setting aside our "prejudices" - after having looked at the stats of the past three years; I'll ask the question again:

Who's a better player - Rick Nash or Phil Kessel?


(If you say Nash... Well then, I can't help you. And I definitely want to be in your Pool.)


And again, before you say, "...but points aren't everything..."; can you at least admit that they are - at the very least - something?

Would you like to have a 30-goal scorer on your team? Would you like to have a point-a-game player? You answered "yes" to both of those questions - yet you are arguing until you are blue in the face that you "don't want" Phil Kessel. Can you reconcile this in your own mind? Because I definitely can't. Phil Kessel is a Star folks. It's time to admit it.





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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8186 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  12:55:05  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Thanks Duke. You just picked an argument apart using literally the 2 worst teams in the NHL for the past 20 years. I'd also like to add that although you may perceive it as me just being difficult, I have a hard time using a 48 games 'season' as a season.

But, what ever floats your boat. If you want me to say Phil Kessel is a great player, no problem. I can say that. Phil Kessel is a great player in the NHL today.

BUT, he is still not the same value of Tyler Seguin, Dougie Hamilton, and Jared Knight.




Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!


Edited by - Beans15 on 07/03/2013 13:05:30
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  13:07:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Gipper lol.

I'm going to let Joshua field that one Gipper. According to nhlnumbers, the Cap Hit was 5.75 million.

Anyway, even if it wasn't last year - it will be next year. And for the next four years.

Gipper - How can you be a Leafs' Fan, and NOT love this trade for Toronto?? Are you actually trying to tell me that you would rather have Tyler Seguin and a two prospects over Phil "The Thrill" Kessel???? You are a LEAFS' FAN man. Time to stand up and have a little bit of pride for your team.

Gosh. I'm sick of arguing this with LEAFS' fans. It's like all Leafs' Fans everywhere in the world have this awful inferiority complex or something. Like even when you win you can't win. Even the Team believes that!! (I'm sure we all remember Game 7... It makes even me sick.).

Get over yourselves Leafs' Fans! Phil Kessel is (to paraphrase / help out the Duke) a "twice - perhaps thrice - a decade" kind of player. And yes, you "gave up" Tyler Seguin in order to do it. But, you got Phil Kessel.

That's a win in my books. Gipper, right now - would you rather have Phil Kessel? Or Tyler Seguinamilknight??
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Guest2684
( )

Posted - 07/03/2013 :  13:45:11  Reply with Quote
You really dont believe Kessel is better COS. Tell me you are just stirring the pot. Because that i can appriciate.
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