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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
 Posted - 07/24/2012 : 15:08:46
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Well, i'm not at all shocked personally, but that's because i figured all along they had to match. IMO, it pretty much meant the franchise. If they didn't match, would their fanbase, which they've worked so hard on to get to where it is, stay loyal through what would be a re-build, or at least a severe "re-tooling"? If not, this literally could have cost Nashville their team. Even if one or two of these draft picks became studs, it'd be 4-8 years before Nashville benefited from them. Would their team even be in Music City by then?
As for a Weber trade demand down the road, that will be very interesting. There is so much up front money involved that you have to figure Poile would demand a massive return for Weber a year from now when he's eligible to be dealt. Likely, a big chunk of cash would be part of a package to offset monies that Nashville will have paid this season (if this is still allowed under NHL rules?).
I tend to agree with Just1n that if Weber were that against playing in Nashville, there was a much easier way out. He could have asked for a trade or simply played one more season there and walked, though the latter would likely mean missing out on one of the last of the ridiculously long contracts. Surely these thing will be coming to an end, or at least a limited version?
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 07/24/2012 : 18:23:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest4178
To some degree it's moot now, but to say that sending an offer sheet to Stamkos is/was risky, and then state that he could fall back to less than a 40-goal scorer is speculation beyond reality.
And to state that four 1st round picks (late picks based on the premise that a top team would only make this move, thus lose only late round picks) is better than having a player like Stamkos (or Weber for that matter) is borderline ridiculous.
Really – what's more risky? Four late round draft picks, or a player of Stamkos' calibre? A guy who won the Rocket Richard trophy in his second season in the NHL, with 61 goals. I wasn't surprised to see him repeat this feat last season (winning the Richard trophy), but to guess how many goals (let alone NHL games) a late first round pick would achieve in future years is very hard to predict.
While it may appear that teams are afraid to lose four 1st round picks by tendering an offer to a Group 1 RFA, the reality is much different.
Since the lock-out, only one player (Dustin Penner) has moved when a team has tendered an offer to a RFA. Every other time, the residing team has matched the offer.
And how many offer sheets have been provided to RFAs? Less than ten?
To some, this would suggest collusion, or a "nod nod wink wink" kinda relationship between GM's. How many GM's stuck up for Kevin Lowe when he made his offer to Penner?
I'm not sure about collusion taking place, but what I really believe is that teams (almost beyond their financial ability) have made it known they will match RFA offer sheets. And that's precisely want Nashville send they would do, and they did exactly that. They don't want four first round picks down the road, and in losing Weber (and Suter, etc.,) "their" first round draft picks would probably be in the top half. (Top 20 for sure.)
I strongly suspect most teams don't want to create open season on their own RFAs by tendering offer sheets to highly valued RFAs. And of course, they realize that an offer sheet is almost always matched, so it really becomes a useless exercise.
A few things:
1. Would you give up 4-1st round picks for Alex Ovechkin? He had better numbers than Stamkos in his first four seasons playing with worse players. Goal scores always decline. Always. Sure you could point to a Selanne as an anomaly and I can point to a 100 other goal scores who have declined. It's a risk and that is a fact. Did the Oilers win in Penner offer sheet? What would have happened had the Sabres not matched the Vanek offer sheet? Most of the time the team signing the player to the offer sheet loses.
2. You are seriously missing the point of the player having to agree. There might piles of offer sheets every year that you never hear of because the player disagrees. Stamkos clearly did not want to leave as I would suggest there were teams out there tossing offer sheets his way. It's not just a move by a team to sign a player. The player has the ultimate option.
3. Martin Havlat, Brad Boyes, Steve Ott, Justin Williams, Nicklas Kronwall, Tim Gleason, David Steckel, Cam Ward, Brent Burns, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, Brian Boyle, Cory Perry, Travis Zajac, Andrej Meszaros, Cory Schneider, Jeff Schultz, Mark Fistric, Mike Green, Tuuka Rask, Andew Cogliano, TJ Oshie, Matt Niskanen, Steve Downie, Claude Giroux, Semyon Varlomov, Patrik Berglund, Nick Foligno, Max Pacioretty, Michael Backlund, Jonathon Blum, David Perron, Micheal Del Zotto, Jordan Eberle, Mattias, Tedenby, Tyler Ennis, John Carlson, Viktor Tikhonov, Marcus Johansson. There is a list of nearly 40 players that were takes between 20-30 in the draft between 99 and 09. I am sure I missed a few but that means there is a 1 in 4 shot of picking an everyday NHL player in those slots.
4. The missing piece is not only the team losing the player gaining 4-1st round picks but they also have their own picks. Give any NHL GM at least 2 first round picks for the next 4 years and I will show you a team that will be a playoff contender.
Daniel Alfredsson is the MVP of the universe. All hail the Ottawa Senators!!!!! |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 07/24/2012 : 18:26:53
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Nashville resigning does surprise me a little based on nothing more than the money. That is a huge cash outlay for a team that is not known to be a 'have' team. It doesn't surprise me that it took so long and signing the best defensemen in the NHL.
I think Weber was in a win/win situation. If he really wanted to leave Nashville he would have signed a one year deal to get to UFA status next summer. He was pretty open about loving Nashville up until this summer so it's not like he hates it there. But he does want to win, which is why he signed this sheet. This should put the pressure on the Preds to ensure he gets a crack at winning.
Daniel Alfredsson is the MVP of the universe. All hail the Ottawa Senators!!!!! |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 07/24/2012 : 22:33:01
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
4. The missing piece is not only the team losing the player gaining 4-1st round picks but they also have their own picks. Give any NHL GM at least 2 first round picks for the next 4 years and I will show you a team that will be a playoff contender.
Interesting point, but keep in mind, the Preds were already a playoff contender, one who many picked to go all the way to the final! Yes, the loss of Suter is huge, but it's not going to cripple the team to the point of not being a "playoff contender". I don't think Nashville could have survived awaiting their GM to draft AND develop one or two of these 8 or so draft picks to become that playoff contender again.
I believe that even with the loss of Suter, having Weber and Rinne still there is enough to keep that defensive team strong enough to contend. Also, they have some young guys in Blum, Ellis and Josi who will only get stronger over the next few years.
I don't know where the money is coming from, but it absolutely had to be found and they had to match! Regardless, you have to be happy for the Preds fanbase as this really could have crippled that franchise. |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 07/25/2012 : 04:40:15
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Nashville matches offer! They keep Weber!!!
I have to say I am a bit surprised. I know it was already the popular analyst's choice, that Nashville would match, but myself, I thought after 2 days of nothing, that . . . I thought he was gone.
This have-not team, the best on the league (in terms of performance as a have-not, overall) kept their best/second best player (they do have Rinne) and they are clearly better for it. But if Weber really is happy there, and if he really did want to send a message to them that he wants to win and be on a top contender . . . how in the world will Nashville be able to afford getting any othe top talent on this team after this massive deal?
To me, it just guarantees more of the same for Nashville - a second tier contender. A good team, but always perhaps missing that piece or two.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Guest4178
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Posted - 07/25/2012 : 08:42:45
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To your points Beans.
And as a preface, please note that I would only recommend that an already good team (like the Flyers) would benefit in making an offer sheet to a highly valuable RFA, a player considered as one of the top 10 players in the game, a leader in the game, and one who has not yet peaked.
1. I would not currently give up four 1st round picks for Ovechkin based on the above criteria, but I admit that I would have done so 2-3 seasons ago. Stamkos is not Ovechkin though, and I disagree with you about Stamkos' future promise. He certainly has way more promise than 4 future unknowns. (More on that later.)
2. I don't disagree that the player has to agree to the offer sheet, but still, that doesn't fully explain the lack of offers made to Group 1 RFA's.
3. You have hand-picked a number of very good players taken between 20-30th in a 10-year period, but in Philadelphia's situation, it would probably relate to a pick between 24-30, which eliminates a lot of the top players in your group. The Flyers finished in 6th place overall (without Pronger), so by adding Weber, I think it would be reasonable to suggest they would probably finish in the top 8 for the next four seasons.
Secondly, try your experiment a different way. (And more accurate way.) Take the 23rd-30th selections from the same time period (80 players) and throw their names in a hat. Now select four players. You are most likely to get 1 unknown, 1 guy with a few NHL games, perhaps a 4th liner, and MAYBE a very good player. But you are not likely to get a Stamkos.
4. I don't dispute the points that a team would benefit by having 2 first round picks for four years in a row, but then why do teams always (with one exception) match the offer sheets? I agree with Alex as it relates to Nashville, that it would jeopardize the franchise.
Teams can't always afford to wait for the rebuild (Oilers are fortunate with their fan base), so draft picks down the road are not the best option for teams who want to win (or at least compete) now.
Interesting that people think these unknown future draft picks will be so valuable. Perhaps they believe that a first round draft pick might turn into a first overall pick, where you can get a player like...Stamkos? I bet you could have found a number of NHL teams willing to trade their next four year's first round draft picks to get Stamkos even before he played one game in the NHL. Especially if they were a team in contention, and they knew those draft picks would be late round picks, for which you would have to be very very lucky to find a Stamkos.
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 07/25/2012 : 09:37:59
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Very good and fair points guest. You should sign up and put your name behind these points!!
A couple of things.
Firstly, I don't think Stamkos is going to tank and yes, I too would have given up 4-1st rounders for Ovechkin 3 seasons ago. My point is that player do slip. It's a risk.
Secondly, I make no illusions that late 1st round picks are the bomb. But they are very likely to be at least every day NHL players. Some of them turn out to be all stars, and some turn out to be nothing. But for the most part, they are every day NHLers.
Finally, I think it's a little short sighted to say there is a lack of offers to group 1 RFA's. You don't know that. None of us do. Nothing is ever reported on a offer sheet that is not signed. There could be 10-15 of these a year for all we know. The only time they are discussed is once they are signed. Stamkos might have had 29 offer sheets for all we know.
I personally think it happens more than we know but rarely does the player sign. But that's just my insignificant opinion.
Daniel Alfredsson is the MVP of the universe. All hail the Ottawa Senators!!!!! |
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Guest4178
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Posted - 07/25/2012 : 10:02:07
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Thanks. I enjoyed the exchange of opinions, and yes, I am overdue to sign up which I will do shortly. (I'm picky about avatars though – I don't like the ones available. Who do I contact about getting my own custom avatar? I have a logo.)
One last point on the discussion though. You may be right that we don't hear about all of the offer sheets, but I'm in the corner that believes most teams stay away from sending offer sheets to big name RFAs. (For the reasons explained earlier, that they almost always get matched and/or that they don't want to have the same thing happen to them when their valuable RFAs are on the market.)
If a number of teams sent offer sheets to Tampa for Stamkos, one would assume that Stamkos knew about the offers. (A team would not send an offer unless they had discussions with the player first.) And if so, why would Stamkos not accept such an offer, which assumingly be for more that he got from Tampa? ($37.5 million over five years.)
Getting back to the topic at hand (Weber), it doesn't hurt him at all to let teams know that he is available, which drives his market value up, and gives him the option to stay with his current team, or a team of his choosing. He's definitely in the driver's seat!
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 07/25/2012 : 11:13:54
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest4178
If a number of teams sent offer sheets to Tampa for Stamkos, one would assume that Stamkos knew about the offers. (A team would not send an offer unless they had discussions with the player first.) And if so, why would Stamkos not accept such an offer, which assumingly be for more that he got from Tampa? ($37.5 million over five years.)
Stamkos would certainly know of all offer sheets, however players are under no obligation to sing them or accept them. Perhaps he was comfortable that TB was going to offer and he wanted to stay.
When a player accepts an offer sheet to leave, it's pretty clear that they have one foot out the door, for any number of reasons. If you sign it, you have to be prepared to live up to it if you current team does not match. It's possible that stamkos was not willing to do that |
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Guest4377
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Posted - 07/26/2012 : 19:07:56
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Maybe Stamkos should have signed those hypothetical offer sheets, even if he wanted to stay in Tampa.
Here's what Weber had to say after Nashville matched the Flyer's offer sheet, and no one seems to criticizing him for his commitment to the Predators:
"It's a very exciting time for the Predators organization and myself. It's a big step in the right direction. Ownership showed a commitment here in the last week. Now going forward I can focus on the important stuff, getting ready for the season and getting ready to go this year."
I agree with Weber - great commitment on Nashville's part, but what about on his part? Weber appeared fully prepared to leave Nashville and play for the Flyers.
But he was in a no lose situation, especially from a money standpoint. But what about his loyalty to his team, or the Nashville fans?
I gotta admit that I would get the maximum value for my services (to a point), but when you do, you can't claim loyalty and commitment at the same time.
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@valanche
Rookie
Canada
240 Posts |
Posted - 07/26/2012 : 19:53:04
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest4377
Maybe Stamkos should have signed those hypothetical offer sheets, even if he wanted to stay in Tampa.
Here's what Weber had to say after Nashville matched the Flyer's offer sheet, and no one seems to criticizing him for his commitment to the Predators:
"It's a very exciting time for the Predators organization and myself. It's a big step in the right direction. Ownership showed a commitment here in the last week. Now going forward I can focus on the important stuff, getting ready for the season and getting ready to go this year."
I agree with Weber - great commitment on Nashville's part, but what about on his part? Weber appeared fully prepared to leave Nashville and play for the Flyers.
But he was in a no lose situation, especially from a money standpoint. But what about his loyalty to his team, or the Nashville fans?
I gotta admit that I would get the maximum value for my services (to a point), but when you do, you can't claim loyalty and commitment at the same time.
Why can't you? Nashville low balled weber big time last summer and now they claim to be loyal to him and the team to winning. It's a business and each side tries to get what's best for their side in the end. In this case both sides are happy. Weber gets big money over a long term and Nashville keeps the franchise player.
66 is > than 99 |
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Weber signs 14yr/100M+ offer sheet with PHI 
