| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| Guest4306 |
Posted - 01/13/2012 : 22:17:59
Ottawa defenseman Erik Karlsson is quietly having a Norris kind of season.
The 21-year-old is leading the NHL in points for defensemen, with almost a point a game. (Currently he has 43 points in 44 games.)
He currently leads the entire league in most even strength minutes played. To restate the point, there is not one NHL player who has been on the ice for more even strength minutes than Erik Karlsson!
He has his share of power-play points, but he shines while playing even strength. 25 of his 43 points are on 5-on-5, and while his team currently sits at -1, his plus/minus rating is +8!
He's a big reason for Ottawa's success this season, which at the "half pole," has them sitting in 5th place in the Eastern Conference.
If you asked most hockey fans to name the top defensemen in the NHL, I speculate that his name would get nary a mention! |
| 40 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| Guest4178 |
Posted - 06/21/2012 : 08:34:30
Erik Karlsson and the term "underrated" will not be used together any more.
Good for him to win the Norris. I think he is a deserving recipient of the best overall defenseman award.
Ottawa didn't care whether he won the award or not, in giving him a $45.5 million dollar contract a few days prior to the awards show.
Good for Karlsson! He's an amazing talent for his age, and I'm sure there are better things to come. I suppose the next point of contention will be whether or not he contends (or wins) the Norris in future years. I believe so!
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| JOSHUACANADA |
Posted - 04/05/2012 : 12:46:02
Ok superimposing Karlsson to Nashville wouldn't necessarily reduce his stats. Mclean isn't known as an offensive coach, Nashville may have had a more potent offense and Weber may have not increased his stats playing in Ottawa. From all counts being said about Ottawa and Karlsson, he is the driving force behind the offense and is a good to great 2way player. Remembering Ottawa's offensive woe's last year, Karlsson's increase in stats accounts for a good portion of the offensive increase in Ottawa. Not having a season of injuries to Spezza, Alfredson and Michalek didn't hurt. Weber although is no slouch offensively, isn't the driving force behind Nashville's offence, he is just an standout 2way player on a very defensive team.
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116
quote:
Originally posted by Guest8875
Weber and Karlson are both great defensemen in both their own ways. What if Weber played for Ottawa and Karlson for Nashville?
Great thought. I'm sure Weber would have more pts than he does now, though prob not as many as Karlsson. However, Karlsson would likely have a lot fewer! He plays with far more offensive players in Ottawa with Spezza, Alfie, Michalek, etc.
Having said that, isn't Nashville's PP one of the top, if not top PP's in the league?
|
| Sensfan101 |
Posted - 04/02/2012 : 17:20:27
quote:
Originally posted by Cyclonis
I think he is very underrated but wont be next year. He wasn't even drafted in our playoff pool! I traded for him in week 3 and have reaped an awesome amount of points from his skills!
I would haver no problem with Karlsson winning the Norris, His offensive talents this year have placed him way ahead in my books.
That being said, does Ottawa need a deep playoff run too? I know these things are generally not supposed to be influenced by playoff play but seemingly its the playoff performers who get the hardware every year.
If Ottawa makes the thrid round he I would bet he wins the Norris! If they are out in the first round and Nashville makes a run then Weber wins. 
Anyway great set of posts here! Loved the discussion on this kid, he is definately going to be a good one. Very Brian Leetch IMHO!
Pretty sure they do the voting for all the awards before the playoffs, so how the Sens do there is irrelevant.
You miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take Wayne Gretzky |
| Cyclonis |
Posted - 04/02/2012 : 13:10:42
I think he is very underrated but wont be next year. He wasn't even drafted in our playoff pool! I traded for him in week 3 and have reaped an awesome amount of points from his skills!
I would haver no problem with Karlsson winning the Norris, His offensive talents this year have placed him way ahead in my books.
That being said, does Ottawa need a deep playoff run too? I know these things are generally not supposed to be influenced by playoff play but seemingly its the playoff performers who get the hardware every year.
If Ottawa makes the thrid round he I would bet he wins the Norris! If they are out in the first round and Nashville makes a run then Weber wins.
Anyway great set of posts here! Loved the discussion on this kid, he is definately going to be a good one. Very Brian Leetch IMHO!
|
| Odin |
Posted - 03/27/2012 : 16:27:54
quote:
Originally posted by Guest9084
Funny part is that last night's game ties Karlsson's +/- with Weber's. That's interesting because the Sens are currently a +9 team whereas the Preds are +20. Weber's got a premier goalie behind him too. Tack on the fact that Suter is a lot more respected and well regarded than Kuba and there's not really much left to argue for in Weber's favor.
That said, I still think Weber will win because of reputation, how he got robbed last year and because lots of the voters won't want to give it to Karlsson when he's so young. Hasn't been won that young since Orr, or so I've read.
Its almost as if the Norris is a year behind. |
| Odin |
Posted - 03/27/2012 : 16:24:28
Beans: " +/- CAN be a defensive stat but it is not exclusive."
Beans, you seem to keep thinking that I think its exclusive. I have said in every post it is NOT black and white. My only point was that it IS used as a defensive stat not only by me and many other fans, but by the "experts" as well.
As I said, and you acknowledged that there aren't many if any purely defeinsive stats, except maybe blocked shots.
You have to use what is available. |
| JOSHUACANADA |
Posted - 03/27/2012 : 09:26:10
1st star in last nights game too. Its been said here and throughout the hockey news that Karlsson is now the heart and soul of the Senators. With a team boisting Alfredson, Spezza, Anderson, Philips and Michalek, thats high praise indeed. Loven the fact he is even being put in the same sentence as the Norris trophey. Win lose or even have his name on the ballot, this guy is incredible.
Rewind 2-5 years ago and I was distraught Ottawa was unable to keep there high priced defenseman and were relying on developing defenseman inhouse with a few veteran pickups such as Gonchar and Kuba. Now I am so happy Ottawa stayed the course and moved the money players along. Albeit Chara, Corvo etc, were horrible losses the Sens shouldnt have parted with. |
| n/a |
Posted - 03/27/2012 : 05:56:51
19 goals, 57 assists, 76 points, +19
And he has a few games to go to pad the lead - the next few still very meaningful games, as last night's was obviously with a playoff spot still in doubt.
Now tied with Mike Green's 76 points from a couple of years ago, and with at least another point will have the highest point total for a defenceman since . . . Lidstrom had 80 in 05/06. And that mark is reachable - before that, highest was . . . well, the early 90s, let's put it that way.
It's been a remarkable season for the young kid, and just as remarkable a season for the Sens . . . there's probably a correlation in there somewhere, but Beans would probably shoot it down, so we'll leave it at that! 
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Guest9084 |
Posted - 03/27/2012 : 05:18:46
Funny part is that last night's game ties Karlsson's +/- with Weber's. That's interesting because the Sens are currently a +9 team whereas the Preds are +20. Weber's got a premier goalie behind him too. Tack on the fact that Suter is a lot more respected and well regarded than Kuba and there's not really much left to argue for in Weber's favor.
That said, I still think Weber will win because of reputation, how he got robbed last year and because lots of the voters won't want to give it to Karlsson when he's so young. Hasn't been won that young since Orr, or so I've read. |
| Open_Ice |
Posted - 03/26/2012 : 20:16:51
3 assists and a +5 in a 6-4 win...
Karlsson on the ice for the last few minutes of the game with the Senators' season arguably on the line before the empty-netter. |
| n/a |
Posted - 03/22/2012 : 18:18:22
Good point guest, and one that has been made before:
The Norris trophy is famous for the one that is the most biased towards reputation, and not actual play/discernable stats.
And hey, I sorta get that . . . hard to measure the defensive aspect quantitatively. But still . . . it sucks for young guys to have to fight such an uphill battle to even get recognised for the award.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Guest4178 |
Posted - 03/22/2012 : 13:02:58
In an earlier posting, I mentioned that Nick Lidstrom didn't win his first Norris until he was 31 years old.
I did some further checking, and found out that he wasn't even a finalist (top three) until he was 28 years old.
It's not like Nick Lidstrom was a late bloomer. He was a very good defenseman in his 20's , but there's no doubt that he blossomed in later years.
Erik Karlsson is not Nick Lidstrom, and he's still very early in his NHL career, but it's amazing to see such a young defenseman to be in such an elite category at such a young age!
I'm pretty sure he will be a Norris finalist, and while I think he could win the Norris this season, I think the voters may give the nod to a more established veteran defenseman. It seems to be the historical trend. |
| sahis34 |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 20:25:20
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
OK, so the stats are the stats and they do bring clarity to somethings. However, I firmly believe that defensive stats are very subjective and do not often tell the tale of how good or bad a player is. In many cases, the best defensive players have poor stats in things like giveaways, having low takaways, etc. However, these players are likely playing against the best offensive players night in and night out.
Here is an interesting consideration that I have talked about before. This might put things into perspective.
You are an NHL head coach and you have 1 minute left in game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals. You have 4 potential situations:
Even strength - down by a goal
Even strength - up by a goal
Power Play - down by a goal
Penalty Kill - game is tied
You can select any player in the NHL based on their play in 2011. You can not name more than one player that you would put onto the ice in EVERY situation.
Who is that player???
Your answer (in my opinion) is the Norris Trophy Winner. To Nux point, I would likely put Weber and Chara ahead of Karlsson using this perspective.
This is also why I think the NHL should introduce an 'offensive' defenseman award.
Even strength - down by a goal, Erik Karlsson
Even strength - up by a goal, Nik Lidstrom
Power Play - down by a goal, Erik Karlsson
Penalty Kill - game is tied, Zdeno Chara
If I can only have one player it's Karlsson based on you proposition.
|
| Alex116 |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 20:11:14
quote:
Originally posted by Guest8875
Weber and Karlson are both great defensemen in both their own ways. What if Weber played for Ottawa and Karlson for Nashville?
Great thought. I'm sure Weber would have more pts than he does now, though prob not as many as Karlsson. However, Karlsson would likely have a lot fewer! He plays with far more offensive players in Ottawa with Spezza, Alfie, Michalek, etc.
Having said that, isn't Nashville's PP one of the top, if not top PP's in the league? |
| Guest8875 |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 18:20:44
Weber and Karlson are both great defensemen in both their own ways. What if Weber played for Ottawa and Karlson for Nashville? |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 07:50:24
Odin, I don't think there are very many, if any defensive stats that are measurable. +/- CAN be a defensive stat but it is not exclusive. I think the in case of Karlsson, it is an indicator of offensive and not defense considering he was on the ice for more goal against (very few of them on the PK) than any other Senator.
Blocks shots is a measure, takeaway vs giveaway is a measure, +/- can be a measure. But there isn't anything that is a clear picture. Most often, the best defensive players have garbage stats. They play against the best offensive players all the time and rarely get offensive opportunities to make their numbers look better. I think of guys like Anton Volchenkov and Zbynek Michalek. I consider these guys some of the best, if not the best defensive defensemen in the game today. Their numbers are average at best but they would likely be the consensus picks as top shutdown guys in the league.
My point behind the +/- in the case of Karlsson is that loftiness of his +/- numbers are based on offensive play, not defensive play. |
| Odin |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 06:05:56
quote:
Originally posted by slozo
quote:
Originally posted by Odin
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Don't confuse +/- with a defensive stat because it is not. He is a plus every time he is on the ice for an ESG. For that reason, and the fact that he has 40 ESG himself, +15 is not that impressive at all!
Low points and a high +/- is normally an indication of better defensive play.
High points and a high +/- is more linely an indication of better offensive play.
I'm glad the other poster asked about this, because I missed it. Karlsson has 40 ESG's?? I don't think so. If that was the case, he would be a shoe-in for the award.
Also, if +\- isn't a defensive stat, what is? I suppose blocked shots could be. I have seen sports jounalists all the time using this stat, +\- as exactly that, a defensive stat. Now, Beans, I am not saying its black and white, most things in life are not. You make a valid point about some of the 'luck' involved with this stat. I have made such points myself. But it IS an indication of defensive prowess. We all know that loosey-goosey players tend to have bad +/_.
As far as Karlsson winning, he should hands down. But as another poster said, the only thing that could beat him is another d-mans rep.
Odin agrees with me that Karlsson should win the Norris . . . hold on a sec here . . . Odin AGREED with me on a subject?!?
Are the endtimes really that near?
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
It was just a matter of time.... |
| Odin |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 06:04:18
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
quote:
Originally posted by Odin
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Don't confuse +/- with a defensive stat because it is not. He is a plus every time he is on the ice for an ESG. For that reason, and the fact that he has 40 ESG himself, +15 is not that impressive at all!
Low points and a high +/- is normally an indication of better defensive play.
High points and a high +/- is more linely an indication of better offensive play.
I'm glad the other poster asked about this, because I missed it. Karlsson has 40 ESG's?? I don't think so. If that was the case, he would be a shoe-in for the award.
Also, if +\- isn't a defensive stat, what is? I suppose blocked shots could be. I have seen sports jounalists all the time using this stat, +\- as exactly that, a defensive stat. Now, Beans, I am not saying its black and white, most things in life are not. You make a valid point about some of the 'luck' involved with this stat. I have made such points myself. But it IS an indication of defensive prowess. We all know that loosey-goosey players tend to have bad +/_.
As far as Karlsson winning, he should hands down. But as another poster said, the only thing that could beat him is another d-mans rep.
Sorry for the error. It was not 40 ESG, it was 40 ES points. My bad.
And +/- is still not a defensive stat. Here is the deal:
Let's compare a few players who have similar +/-:
Karlsson as 69 pts and is +15.
Bryce Salvador has 7 pts and is +15.
I bet it would take much to figure out which of those players is know for their defensive prowess and which is known as an offensive juggernaut.
+/- is not a stat that measure defense or offensive exclusively. Not in the least.
I never said it was exclusively offensive or defensive. I even said in my post that it isn't black and white. But I did say the so-called experts often do use this as a defensive stat. As they do.
Again though, I asked what you would consider a defensive stat? I don't think it can be argued that +/- isn't an indication of that. The problem is that I don't think that there are any exclusively defensive stats outside perhaps of blocked shots. So we need to use what we have. |
| Open_Ice |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 22:50:16
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Here is a little something to chew on:
Erik Karlsson as been on the ice for 73 goals against, only 5 of those being PK goals. He has been on the ice for 120 goals for, 37 were PP goals. That means 83 goal for-68 goals against. +15 (By the way, he leads Ottawa defensemen for being on the ice for the most goals against and the fewest PP goals against)
Adam McQuiad has been on the ice for 33 goals against, only 7 on the PK. He has been on the ice for 40 goals for, 0 on the PP. That means 40 goals for, 26 goals against. +14.
Who is the better defensive players??? Both have the same +/- stat but one has on the ice for literally 1/2 the number of goals against.
Sorry Beans, I usually think you have a point but I don't agree with much you have said in this thread and this comparison is downright ridiculous.
Karlsson: 1,475:24 Even Strength Time-on-Ice (1st on his team by over 300 minutes)
McQuaid: 903:37 Even Strength Time-on-Ice (6th on his team)
Not only does the majority of the difference in goals against get explained by the fact that he was simply on the ice 570 minutes longer, but Karlsson also led the team in even strength time on ice so most of his time was spent up against quality opponents. McQuaid is on the 3rd defensive pairing playing against weaker lines. |
| Guest4377 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 18:30:24
And Nuxfan, your posts have a significant anti-Karlsson slant, because......you're not a Karlsson fan.
It's all fair in a discussion, but let's see which three defensemen make the final ballot. Just three weeks ago, you picked Brian Campbell ahead of Erik Karlsson in your top three!
Campbell's a good defensemen, but this season, Karlsson is better!
As far as who I would want on the ice in the last minute of a hockey game (in a tight important game), I would put Karlsson up there. Maybe not tops in the league, but I remember a three-time Norris winner who was not always on the ice in similar situations, and that was Paul Coffey!
Karlsson is not Coffey, and one thing about Coffey was that he was so much better offensively than other defensemen that such relatively minor blemishes were overlooked. In the three seasons Coffey won the Norris, he averaged around 50% more points than the next top defensemen. That's incredible!
But wait a minute! Right now Karlsson has 70 points compared to Campbell's 47 points. This works out to be around 50% more points than the next best defenseman in points. When was the last time that happened? |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 16:40:49
quote:
Originally posted by Guest5091
In short, you can present the facts in any way you want. You can always make either guy look better (or worse) than he actually is. Case in point, I easily could have said that he's got more time on ice than Weber does... while true, he's also played 4 games more.
As for what I actually think, Karlsson's defense has consistently improved throughout the season. He's become quite proficient at it and his reputation is taking a while to catch up.
I didn't actually look at one stat or the other in isolation - for best all-around defensman, I looked at all the stats together.
With the exception of giveaways (which is a glaring stat for all defenders and all those on the list) Weber stood out because he was in the top quartile of every stat - and in fact was 95%ile in most of them. No other dman on my shortlist was. To me, this is at least an indication that Weber is the best all-around - he can score, he can hit, he blocks shots, he plays in all situations and a sigificant amount of ice time (BTW I used rankings for TOI/game to take into account the missed games), and gets a very high number of points for his position.
The only real thing that Karlsson has going for him is a massive lead in point scoring - which is in itself a significant achievement, but should not a Norris winner make.
I think your post had significant pro-Karlsson slant because....you're a Karlsson fan. |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 15:24:56
Here's something interesting to consider when comparing E. Karlsson's season (this year) to Mike Green's season in 08/09 when many thought he was ripped off of the Norris when Chara won it.
There's a link at the bottom of this post to an article, albeit biased as it's written by a Boston guy, about why Chara deserved it over Green, even with Green's crazy offensive numbers. Now, look at these comparisons, and it's clear to me why E. Karlsson, for those who think he's the obvious choice, could very easily lose out to a guy like Shea Weber.
2008 / 2009
Mike Green - GP:68 Pts:73 PPG: 1.07
Zdeno Chara - GP:80 Pts:50 PPG: .625
2011 / 2012 (so far)
E. Karlsson - GP:70 Pts:70 PPG: 1.00
S. Weber - GP:66 Pts:41 PPG: .621
B. Campbell - GP:70 Pts:47 PPG: .671
I threw Campbell in there as the second leading Dman scorer at present though i don't think he's gonna be on the final ballot. Howerver, compare Karlsson's numbers to Weber's and they look awfully similar to the comparison of Green and Weber. I've said from day 1 that i really feel a lot of voters vote for a guy who's "put in time" and come close before and i'm sticking with that in my prediction of Weber winning the 11/12 Norris.
Link to article about Chara's win: http://www.examiner.com/boston-bruins-in-boston/nhl-awards-zdeno-chara-wins-2009-norris-trophy |
| Guest5091 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 12:47:42
Err, sorry, I meant slozo's question... Not beans' |
| Guest5091 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 12:46:22
This post is going to have a significant pro-Karlsson slant just to prove my point... I could easily do the same thing in a pro-Weber manner but I might as well do it for the guy I think should (but won't) win the Norris. Anyway, the problem with just using the rank in each stat is that it does not portray the magnitude of difference.
Using takeaways as an example:
Karlsson: 1st
Weber: tied for 2nd
That makes Weber look comparatively better than he is because it doesn't display the massive separation between the 2. Karlsson's been 20% better in that stat. That's massive.
Another example is points, where Weber is tied for 8th (I could have said 10th without lying to make him look worse, but meh) That seems decent, until you actually compare it and realize that Karlsson quite literally has 70%] more points (or 50% over the #2 guy). Karlsson's also got a 30% goal lead on #2. It's not just the fact that he's leading the pact; it's that he's demolishing it even if you cherry-pick several other D's best stats. He also isn't paired with another top-10 defenseman in the league to cover up any defensive mistakes, even though he is consistently playing against the other teams' top lines (hard not to when you're playing as much as he does)
In short, you can present the facts in any way you want. You can always make either guy look better (or worse) than he actually is. Case in point, I easily could have said that he's got more time on ice than Weber does... while true, he's also played 4 games more.
As for what I actually think, Karlsson's defense has consistently improved throughout the season. He's become quite proficient at it and his reputation is taking a while to catch up.
To answer beans' question, when you look at it individually, you get something like this (I'm excluding Letang in these because he was injured too long):
Even strength - down by a goal --> EK and it's not even close
Even strength - up by a goal --> Arguable, but EK. Amazing breakout passes or poise in skating it out of the defensive zone and a legitimate threat to put the game away offensively.
Power Play - down by a goal --> EK and it's not even close
Penalty Kill - game is tied --> Chara
PK is Karlsson's weakest point, even though he's above average at them. They don't really permit him to utilize his greatest assets. That said, he's always on for the PKs in the final minutes of a game because there's no sense in "saving him" for offense when you're in the dying minutes.
When you're only allowed 1 guy for all 4 situations, I pick EK. Whatever games his slightly weaker defensive game loses you in situation #4, he'll more than make up for it when he wins you games in situations 1&3 and seal the victory in situation #2. The point of a defenceman (or any position, for that matter) is simply to win you game. Doesn't matter how unconventionally you do it. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 12:38:26
Great way to dodge the question, Slozo.
And to your point, I would likely not pick Karlsson. Not for any other reason than in the finals, defense wins most of the time. So I would take a tank of a defensive player who can also move the puck and produce offensively.
This year, I take Chara or Weber. I would likely flip a coin for either of those guys. Karlsson would not be my #1 because he does not kill penalties. At least not under the system he is playing.
That's my opinion and that doesn't mean any one else is wrong. To compare criteria, Slozo put more slightly more weight on offensive abilities. I put more on defensively abilities.
|
| Guest4178 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 11:45:27
Nuxfan – I think we're in agreement.
I surely wasn't referring to Karlsson making the first ballot, which if you're correct, includes the names of 50 or 60 of the top defensemen. Jeez – when you go that deep, even Dion Phaneuf makes the list. :)
I wasn't sure if you thought his name would (would not should) appear on the final Norris ballot (one of the top three), but I now see that you put him in this elite category. And I agree with you.
Will he win? I repeat my earlier comments that it's rare for such a young defensemen to win the Norris. Voters seem to want to wait for either an incredible stand-out performance for this to take place, preferring to go with an established defenseman if it's a close 3-way race. |
| n/a |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 11:20:03
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
OK, so the stats are the stats and they do bring clarity to somethings. However, I firmly believe that defensive stats are very subjective and do not often tell the tale of how good or bad a player is. In many cases, the best defensive players have poor stats in things like giveaways, having low takaways, etc. However, these players are likely playing against the best offensive players night in and night out.
Here is an interesting consideration that I have talked about before. This might put things into perspective.
You are an NHL head coach and you have 1 minute left in game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals. You have 4 potential situations:
Even strength - down by a goal
Even strength - up by a goal
Power Play - down by a goal
Penalty Kill - game is tied
You can select any player in the NHL based on their play in 2011. You can not name more than one player that you would put onto the ice in EVERY situation.
Who is that player???
Your answer (in my opinion) is the Norris Trophy Winner. To Nux point, I would likely put Weber and Chara ahead of Karlsson using this perspective.
This is also why I think the NHL should introduce an 'offensive' defenseman award.
No, my answer in each of those situations would depend on that situation, dude.
Norris trophy means, the most valuable defenceman - who brings the most total value.
I actually weight the offence just as if not a bit more than defensive responsibilities, as defencemen are paired with another d-man, and who they are with can greatly help/skew the stats. And offensively . . . no one helps the team offence as a whole more than a great puck passer and set up man on the D.
so,
I think you should phrase the question like this:
For your SERIES FINAL,
Who would you want as your top defenceman, if he is paired up with what we consider a mediocre top pairing guy?
For me, the answer this year is Karlsson.
On a championship calibre team (see: not Ottawa), can you imagine his stats then?
Conversely . . . I wonder how your Chara and Weber would be doing on today's Sens?
I rest my case.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 10:54:19
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4178
Nuxfan – you seem to be trying to make a case against Karlsson being on the ballot – I'm not sure why?
But you also appear to be coming around to finally agree that his name will likely appear on the Norris ballot.
Here's what you stated early on: "When you look at other top ranked defensemen and perennial Norris candidates, you will see that they play in all situations, and in many cases are near the top of their team's respective PK minutes. It will work against Karlsson."
Do you still think your observations about Karlsson will work against him? Do you think the hockey writers (voters) will keep his name off the ballot?
Hm - it just occurred to me that we are talking about different things, are we talking about the same ballot? To be clear, when I say "appear on the ballot", I mean "will be one of the 3 finalists" - the actual original ballot probably has 50 or 60 defensmen on it that each get at least one vote for first, second or third - so roughly 1/3 of active defensemen get on that original list. It would be ridiculous to think that Karlsson will not get a significant number of votes for the Norris. I fully expect him to be top-5 in voting, and given his scoring lead over his peers, I think he'll be one of the finalists - ie, on the "final ballot for the winner".
However, I also believe that his defensive weakness (compared to his likely competition) will work against him actually winning the award, and I don't believe that he will win. Much as it has worked against pure offensive defensemen in recent years (Visnovsky, Green).
|
| Beans15 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 10:35:10
OK, so the stats are the stats and they do bring clarity to somethings. However, I firmly believe that defensive stats are very subjective and do not often tell the tale of how good or bad a player is. In many cases, the best defensive players have poor stats in things like giveaways, having low takaways, etc. However, these players are likely playing against the best offensive players night in and night out.
Here is an interesting consideration that I have talked about before. This might put things into perspective.
You are an NHL head coach and you have 1 minute left in game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals. You have 4 potential situations:
Even strength - down by a goal
Even strength - up by a goal
Power Play - down by a goal
Penalty Kill - game is tied
You can select any player in the NHL based on their play in 2011. You can not name more than one player that you would put onto the ice in EVERY situation.
Who is that player???
Your answer (in my opinion) is the Norris Trophy Winner. To Nux point, I would likely put Weber and Chara ahead of Karlsson using this perspective.
This is also why I think the NHL should introduce an 'offensive' defenseman award. |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 09:54:31
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan
quote:
Umm if you read his post it says the numbers represent the ranking. So 1 in take away means he is #1 ranked and so on.
well I'm glad someone read clearly.
yes, these are rankings relative to all other dmen in the NHL. So if someone has a "1", that means they had the most of whatever category it is. For giveaways, I did a reverse - ie, Karlsson had the 5th most giveaways, therefore he ranks 283 (288 - 5)
 I refuse to take the blame for misreading and will be putting 100% of said blame on guest9084! When i originally read your post, i totally understood it, then when i came back and read his comment, i got confused (doesn't take much ).
Okay, makes much more sense now! For a minute there, i was gonna start calling Chara and Weber "WIMPS" for their lack of hits. Lol! |
| Guest4178 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 09:50:32
Nuxfan – you seem to be trying to make a case against Karlsson being on the ballot – I'm not sure why?
But you also appear to be coming around to finally agree that his name will likely appear on the Norris ballot.
Here's what you stated early on: "When you look at other top ranked defensemen and perennial Norris candidates, you will see that they play in all situations, and in many cases are near the top of their team's respective PK minutes. It will work against Karlsson."
Do you still think your observations about Karlsson will work against him? Do you think the hockey writers (voters) will keep his name off the ballot? |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 09:29:50
quote:
Umm if you read his post it says the numbers represent the ranking. So 1 in take away means he is #1 ranked and so on.
well I'm glad someone read clearly.
yes, these are rankings relative to all other dmen in the NHL. So if someone has a "1", that means they had the most of whatever category it is. For giveaways, I did a reverse - ie, Karlsson had the 5th most giveaways, therefore he ranks 283 (288 - 5) |
| Guest9894 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 09:25:26
quote:
Originally posted by Guest9084
Your stats are skewed... Karlsson leads the league in takeaways by a defenseman, he doesn't have only 1. He currently has 58, which is 20% better than second place (Duncan Keith with 48). Chara only has 21.
Umm if you read his post it says the numbers represent the ranking. So 1 in take away means he is #1 ranked and so on. |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 08:04:47
nuxfan....Where'd these numbers come from? I could be wrong, but i find it hard to believe that Suter has 179 hits and Weber has just 22 and Chara just 25? Is that even possible???
Not to mention the 1 takeaway for Karlsson that the guest pointed out. THAT, has to be impossible! Even Weber at 3 and Suter at just 19?
Please tell me something is wrong here? |
| Guest9084 |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 04:55:21
Your stats are skewed... Karlsson leads the league in takeaways by a defenseman, he doesn't have only 1. He currently has 58, which is 20% better than second place (Duncan Keith with 48). Chara only has 21. |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 23:05:02
quote:
Originally posted by Guest9894
Karlsson is not the best defensive defensemen. But he is not Souray or MA Bergeron either. He is average on defense. But he is out of this world talented on the offensive side.
Whereas Weber and Chara, probably other possible candidates are both above average defenders and offensive output.
What is the measurement for defensive defensemen? Would it be fair to say something like in comparison to what Karlsson is doing on the offensive side Chara and Weber would have to block 50% more shots than the next best defensemen but only produce say 35-40 points (I'm guessing it is the average points for a defensemen in the league - feel free to adjust the number)? When you say all round defensemen there just is no easy measure for a defensive stat in comparison. When you come up with one, just imagine if Chara or Weber leading the pack so much that no one is close to them, because that is the equivalent of what Karlsson is doing on the offensive side yet being merely average on the defensive side.
First off, lets clear up defensive scoring numbers. I didn't take the time to figure out the average, however, the median defenseman in the NHL this year has scored 11 points so far. I would bet the average is not far off that mark for all defensemen in the NHL. Out of the top 180 active defensemen (each of 30 teams with 6 dmen), there are currently only 11 defenseman higher than 40 points, and only 18 at 35 or more. Yes, I realize that makes Karlsson's offensive numbers this year look even more astounding. But I'm going to assume that all 3 finalists are in the top 10 for NHL scoring by a defenseman, so they're all in the elite category for offensive output at their position.
What measures are used for the defensive aspects of the position? I'm not a voter, so I don't know exactly what they look for. Certainly points matter (I don't remember the last time a candidate was not in the top-15 for dman scoring), and I would think some other general stats like +/-, TOI (for each of ES, PK, PP). I would also think that Hits, blocked shots, giveaways and takeaways would be taken into consideration. After that I'm speculating, or possibly projecting my own criteria - for example, does the dman quarterback the PP and/or lead the PK? Do they regularly play against oppositions top lines? Are they on the ice for important defensive situations (PK, own-end faceoffs with the game on the line)? These are not captured in simple statistics.
For fun, I compiled a stats summary for Weber, Chara, Campbell, Suter, and Karlsson, with overall dman rankings (out of 288, the higher the better) for the stats above:
Karlsson:
- points: 1
- +/-: 16
- ES TOI: 5
- PP TOI: 12
- PK TOI: 206
- Hits: 132
- Blocked shots: 166
- giveaways: 283 (5th worst)
- takeaways: 1
Weber:
- points: 8
- +/-: 12
- ES TOI: 6
- PP TOI: 20
- PK TOI: 67
- Hits: 22
- Blocked shots: 40
- giveaways: 240 (40th worst)
- takeaways: 3
Suter:
- points: 10
- +/-: 18
- ES TOI: 7
- PP TOI: 13
- PK TOI: 60
- Hits: 179
- Blocked shots: 71
- giveaways: 210 (78th worst)
- takeaways: 19
Chara:
- points: 7
- +/-: 4
- ES TOI: 15
- PP TOI: 43
- PK TOI: 39
- Hits: 25
- Blocked shots: 117
- giveaways: 278 (10th worst)
- takeaways: 62
Campbell:
- points: 2
- +/-: 237
- ES TOI: 3
- PP TOI: 3
- PK TOI: 149
- Hits: 171
- Blocked shots: 74
- giveaways: 236 (52nd worst)
- takeaways: 26
Feel free to agree or disagree with the stat categories I've provided - I don't know if this is what the voters look at, or how much they weigh each category - you raise a good point, does Karlsson's massive lead in offensive output allow voters to overlook his low defensive category rankings? Looking at the rankings above, IMO Weber is the most consistent all around defenseman of the group across all categories.
There is no question that Karlsson is a talented offensive defenseman - he has easily set the bar for that position this year, and looks poised to do it again in coming years. He will almost certainly be on the ballot for the Norris this year (the NHL loves to reward offensive output where possible). However, his overall defensive game is lacking compared to other candidates, and I don't think that an award should be given for overall defensive capabilities on the back of strong scoring.
|
| Guest9894 |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 21:32:04
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan
Unless you're considering the player for the award for best "all around" defenseman, ie, the Norris trophy. In which case, the "all round game" should be pretty important.
Karlsson is not the best defensive defensemen. But he is not Souray or MA Bergeron either. He is average on defense. But he is out of this world talented on the offensive side.
Whereas Weber and Chara, probably other possible candidates are both above average defenders and offensive output.
What is the measurement for defensive defensemen? Would it be fair to say something like in comparison to what Karlsson is doing on the offensive side Chara and Weber would have to block 50% more shots than the next best defensemen but only produce say 35-40 points (I'm guessing it is the average points for a defensemen in the league - feel free to adjust the number)? When you say all round defensemen there just is no easy measure for a defensive stat in comparison. When you come up with one, just imagine if Chara or Weber leading the pack so much that no one is close to them, because that is the equivalent of what Karlsson is doing on the offensive side yet being merely average on the defensive side. |
| Guest4178 |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 14:42:14
I still maintain that Karlsson's name will be on the Norris ballot. Will he win? I wouldn't rule him out, but if he does win the Norris, he will be the youngest defenseman to win the award since Bobby Orr won his first of eight consecutive Norris Trophies at the age of 20!
Karlsson is only 21 years old, so for him to even get his name on the ballot says a lot! And if he does win, it will be an amazing feat for such a young defenseman! (Defensemen usually take longer to mature as hockey players.)
In the past 25 years, the youngest player to win the Norris was Brian Leetch, who won his first of two Norris trophies when he was only 24 years old.
For the most part, the Norris winners have been in their late 20's or early 30's. Nick Lidstrom didn't win the Norris until he was 31 years old, and picked up his seventh last season at 41 years of age.
Regardless of whether or not Karlsson wins the Norris, he's having a great season, and it's hard to argue that he's not one of the top defensemen in the NHL right now.
Even if his name is off the Norris ballot (unlikely), most fans would agree that at the very least, he's one of the top five defensemen in the league! And to be top five at any position as an NHL player (defenseman, forward or goalie) is an elite category to be in! |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 14:23:31
quote:
This is not to say that we should ignore a players all round game, but rather its less important what makes them stand out/dominate/effect the game than the extent to which they do.
Unless you're considering the player for the award for best "all around" defenseman, ie, the Norris trophy. In which case, the "all round game" should be pretty important. |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 13:31:40
quote:
Originally posted by Guest5091
Not my gif but I just had to post it...
[img]http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m0wjwguRbL1qmazcxo1_400.gif[/img]
Please tell me he got a holding or interference penalty for that!!!
BTW, didn't realize till now just how small Karlsson is? Yahoo and Wikipedia list him at 5'11" and only 175 lbs? HockeyDB has him at 5'11" only 165 lbs and NHL.com has him at 6' / 180 lbs. Don't know why, but i always thought he was bigger than that! |
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