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Guest0693
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 Posted - 08/03/2010 : 15:09:39
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As we all count the days untill next season, what teams do you think will do well, do poorly and who do you think will be the biggest surprise?
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MrBoogedy
Rookie
Canada
195 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2010 : 20:41:32
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I think that Yzerman is going to prove himeself to be a genius and that Tampa Bay is going to be a force to be reckoned with. With Ellis now in net, and adding Gagne into the mix with Lecavalier, St Louis, and Stamkos is one hell of a talented roster.
And as much as i hate to say it, and i really hate saying it, I think Toronto is going to finally have a good season. I think i just threw up a little bit. |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2010 : 22:42:10
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Tampa Bay has talented offensive forwards and are filling in their role players nicely, however I don't think too many GM's in the NHL would be excited about starting a season with Ellis as their #1 goalie and Ohlund, Hedberg, and Kubina is only 1/2 of a defensive core. Ranger is still MIA and as much as I like Brent Clark, no one is doing back flips for him.
TB still has some way to go and one has to remember that they will be competing with Washington and a healthy and better than people give them credit for team in Carolina. Don't forget that Tallon is building a team in FLA too. TB will be in tough.
I look for Colorado to continue what they did last year. They have changed very little from last season and I think those young kids will have standout 2nd years.
Begrudingly, I also see the Leafs doing a vast improvement over last season. I like the stable goaltending and their defense is pretty sick if they are healthy. I still am concerned with the front end but they always seem to find a way to score goals.
On the flip side, I see Vancouver and Pittsburgh making the biggest decline. I think that the grossly outcoached Vignault and his push for a reckless style and his inability to control his players will finally catch up to him through the season and I think Pitt is going to rue the day that Gonchar left.
I also see Calgary surprising people. |
Edited by - Beans15 on 08/03/2010 23:03:26 |
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MrBoogedy
Rookie
Canada
195 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2010 : 22:51:08
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| And i also must say that i don't think my dear habs are going to have much of a season. The loss of Halak will be sorely felt, since especially if Montreal does sign Price, whose to say he's going to be any better than last year. I for one doubt it. Auld is useless, their only hope in nets is Cedric desjardins, a young up and comer who may make a splash. Aside from that... it's not looking good. |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 05:08:18
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I won't comment on the Leafs, no need to jinx things after the season from hell last year.
Tampa Bay still has some holes, I get it . . . but it's a weak division minus Washington, and I think they'll contend for a playoff spot.
I totally agree that Pittsburgh is ready for a fall without an elite puck-moving defenceman. Unless the Pens get Kaberle in a trade (possible, but unlikely), I agree with Beans, they battle for a playoff spot.
I actually at this point do not see a lot of movement from many teams in the standings, other than Toronto and maybe Tampa Bay going up, and Montreal, Pittsburgh and Ottawa going down a bit. In the west, I hardly see any changes at all in the standings, and do not believe Vancouver will fall. I do see St.Louis getting better and making the playoffs this year though, and maybe Phoenix is due for a wake-up call after their 'dream season'.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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irvine
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
1315 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 07:19:15
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I don't see Pittsburgh failing at all, with the departure of Gonchar.
They have addressed their biggest weakness, since their Cup win. Defense on the back end. And, they addressed it in a big way. Martin and Michalek, two defensive defenders who play their position well.
Does Gonchar add value and production? Yes, he certainly does.
But I don't think we can count out the young Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski.
Letang had 27 points last year behind Gonchar, and Goligoski netted 8 goals and 37 points while being low on the depth chart.
Goligoski is an offensive minded d-man, who, will now get the power play time and offensive time needed to produce further. He is another year older, and going to get more power play minutes. I'm sure with that, he can add to his 8 goals and 37 points.
Goligoski is not Gonchar, don't pretend like that is what I am saying. But, Goligoski can produce from the blue line, and with the added minutes he should be able to add to his last years totals.
Add in Letang's contributions and that of what Martin can help with, I fail to see how the loss of Gonchar suddenly makes Pittsburgh a bubble team, battling for a playoff spot.
I see Pittsburgh finishing 3-5 in the East. If they fail to win their division, 4th or 5th will be where they end.
Irvine/prez. |
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Jumbo Joe Rocks
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
410 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 08:17:41
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Anybody besides me seeing San Jose failing big time 27th in the league in the standings probably.
GO SHARKS GO |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 08:37:18
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quote:
Originally posted by Jumbo Joe Rocks
Anybody besides me seeing San Jose failing big time 27th in the league in the standings probably.
GO SHARKS GO
San Jose has not done a whole lot this season and there is a question in net, but what is wrong with that team??? 27th?? Who is going to remove them from the top of the Pacific?? Phoenix was hot last year with nearly 40% of their wins coming in the shootout!! Serious, they were a couple of shootout loses from being garbage. Dallas was a weaker team last year and hasn't don't anything to improve and as much as Anahiem's first line rocks, they get worse without Niedermayer. LA is SJ's only competition in the Pacific.
They are in the top 5 in the West regardless of them winning the division or not.
27th??? C'mon. |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 10:12:21
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quote:
Originally posted by MrBoogedy
And i also must say that i don't think my dear habs are going to have much of a season. The loss of Halak will be sorely felt, since especially if Montreal does sign Price, whose to say he's going to be any better than last year. I for one doubt it. Auld is useless, their only hope in nets is Cedric desjardins, a young up and comer who may make a splash. Aside from that... it's not looking good.
I think you are slightly overatting Halak's impact and drasticly underatting Price, the habs are no worse off with Price rather than Halak,, just because the media seems to think so doesn't make it true Price played very well last year he got no goal suport and got tagged with a lot of loses that he played extremly well in,, i know i watched almost every game last year to tell me different tells me you either watch highlights and not games or you just have a hate on for price,, the Habs big question marks are up front can Eller and Boyd take the place of Moore and Metro and which Andrei Kostitsyn will we have this year.. and which Max Lapierre,, if we get the good side of all these players pencil us in, in the numbe 8 spot like last year
Pasty |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 11:35:28
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Irvine - you bring up good points about the Pens having Goligoski to sort of fill in Gonchar's shoes to an extent. And I did forget about Paul Martin being there, the former Devil defensive stalwart. I just don't see the young guns of Goligoski, Letang fulfilling all expectations with the veteran leadership of Paul Martin, a new guy playing in a new system.
And, we saw with the Leafs, and we've seen it before with other teams, how once fairly highly regarded defencemen falter when in unfamiliar situations and with a new system. Can Crosby produce 50 goals again? I doubt it. Will Guerin score 21 goals again? Probably not.
It's the thinnest and least talented bunch of wingers the Pens have had for a long time, IMHO, and unless both Crosby and Malkin have monster seasons, coupled with a huge year from Fleury and the defence gelling perfectly . . . they are due for a fall. One that even the great Crosby may not be able to prevent.
Unless they trade for Kaberle and perhaps a scoring winger - then, they are right back up there.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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FLYING -V
Top Prospect
69 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 13:24:56
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I think you guys are badly overating gonchar. I mean, he's injured half the time anyways. Two elite defensive defensemen along with the continued progression of goligoski and letang, should give the pens an much improved defense core, I pick them to take the Atlantic.
Tampa will improve over last season, however I still don't see them as a playoff team. I would be very surprised if stamkos and st. louis equalled the numbers they put up this year, nonetheless, this team is excellent up front. However their goaltending and defense core have yet to wow me. Maybe next year.
Also, I don't see the leafs making great strides this season, they will improve slightly ( from 15th to 14 or 13th. But I would be stunned if they made the playoffs, unless they manage something huge.
Florida sinks to last place.
St. Louis makes waves in the west.
Montreal misses the playoffs.
Carolina makes playoffs.
Bruins retake their division.
Coyotes stumble but still contend for playoffs.
Avalanche miss playoffs.
Flames... Who knows.
Biggest surprise will be the Atlanta thrashers. Just you wait.
Its not worth winning if you cant win big! |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 13:51:15
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Yep, Gonchar is injured all the time. I guess that is why he has played in more than 70 games in all but 3 of this NHL season. And he is so grossly over rated that when he plays at least 60 games in a season he produces 50 or more point for the past decade. And that's why Gonchar's best seasons are more than what Gologoski and Letang produce combined!! Let's not forget the guy also produces in the playoffs.
Gonchar is easily one of the 5 top PP quarterbacks in the game today. That is not over-rating anything. Take that off your team and replace it with Martin and Michalek and you are telling me that Pitt doesn't take a step down?? Who is going to produce to replace Gonchar?? One has to remember that Pitt with Gonchar, Goligoski, and Letang didn't make it out of the 2nd round. Take Gonchar out and what happens???
Pitt also lost Leopold, Ponikarovksy, and Eaton not to mention have not signed Guerin or Fedotenko. They have moved all those players out and replaced them with Martin, Michalek, and Ryan Craig(who?? exactly) and they are not taking a step backwards?? They are replacing 200+ points with about 50 points a season.
Seriously, Pitt is currently one injury away from missing the playoffs. Unless they do something to add some offensive abilities, they will be playing a defensive brand of hockey. Not by choice, but simply because they have just a few bonified offensive players. They are brilliant, but there just isn't enough of them.
Switching offensive for defense rarely works. Ask Calgary how it worked for them last year when they chose Bouwmeester over Cammallari.
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Edited by - Beans15 on 08/04/2010 15:22:00 |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 16:16:54
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Teams I think will improve on last year:
- TB - how can they not. If Lecavalier gets back to normal they have one serious offense. Agree with Beans on their lack of defense, but again, how can they be worse than last year.
- EDM - It would be hard to not improve on last place, and I think they'll do a lot better than that. I think they will be a very dynamic and fast team next year. They have a lot of promising youth (assuming their 3 big noobs make the team), a reasonable defense, and if Khabby is healthy they'll have pretty solid goaltending.
- STL - should make the playoffs, they have an excellent young core and good d. Success will depend heavily on Halak, but if he does what he did in MTL they might have a 2009/10-PHX-like year.
- TOR - as with EDM, how could they do worse... but the showed a lot of improvement over the last ~12 games last year, I think they'll do fine next year. Playoffs? Not sure.
Teams I think will do worse:
- CHI - they have cut too deep and too hard, I don't think there is any way they can have the same success next year that they had this year.
- BUF - they rode Miller last year, but again they lost a lot of backend presence in the offseason. If Miller does what he did last year and Myers has success in his sophomore year, they might make the playoffs.
- PHX - I don't think they can do it again. We'll see
I don't see a lot of change for other teams |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 22:37:27
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Honestly, I would love to see nothing but the Oilers compete every night but lose more often than not. The rebuild is still in it's early phase and picking up another top 5 draft pick next season would be far better for the team than competing for a playoff spot and possibly slipping in the 8th spot.
I can handle one more year of mediocrity. Then, hold onto your shorts.
I would also love nothing more than to see the Cansucks complete tank. I just can't stand anything about that team. No disrespect to the Canuck fans on the site, I just struggle finding any redeeming qualities of any member of that teams management or coaching staff and there are less than 1/2 the players on that team I can stomach. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2010 : 23:01:09
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quote:
I would also love nothing more than to see the Cansucks complete tank. I just can't stand anything about that team. No disrespect to the Canuck fans on the site, I just struggle finding any redeeming qualities of any member of that teams management or coaching staff and there are less than 1/2 the players on that team I can stomach.
ah, but deep down, you know that won't happen. I don't expect the Canucks to do worse than they did this year, and the NW is still theirs to lose IMO. They have all the same offensive power, but a beefed up and balanced defense to go with it. If only they would take the C away from Luongo so he could get back to awesome goaltending... |
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redneck76ca
Rookie
186 Posts |
Posted - 08/05/2010 : 03:54:35
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quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan
quote:
I would also love nothing more than to see the Cansucks complete tank. I just can't stand anything about that team. No disrespect to the Canuck fans on the site, I just struggle finding any redeeming qualities of any member of that teams management or coaching staff and there are less than 1/2 the players on that team I can stomach.
ah, but deep down, you know that won't happen. I don't expect the Canucks to do worse than they did this year, and the NW is still theirs to lose IMO. They have all the same offensive power, but a beefed up and balanced defense to go with it. If only they would take the C away from Luongo so he could get back to awesome goaltending...
I have troubles seeing the Canucks doing anything worse than 3rd in the West. With Colorado and Calgary being their biggest competition for the NorthWest title, the Canucks should take the crown.
As much as Beans wants the Canucks to fail this year, I just don't see it happening. In fact, I think the team looks great as is, and might be the best squad they have iced in years. Hopefully they can move a dman (Bieksa or Salo, although Salo is a hard sell) which
will give them some wiggle room with the cap.
Some Hasty Predictions:
Teams going up in the standings:
Detroit
Colorado
Boston
Tampa
Toronto (by a smidgen) ie they won't be last in the East, maybe as high as 11th.
Teams going down:
Chicago
Nashville
Florida
Atlanta Blackhawks
Steelpanther!
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 08/05/2010 : 07:53:22
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Vancouver - I am not super fond of this team either Beans, but I really don't see them going down at all - if anything, I predict they take the division and finish one or two in the conference. They are a very solid team up and down, and you have to think Luongo will have a better season than last year's mediocre one (for him).
I could easily see Colorado taking a fall, after their magical season. Not sure how they could improve . . . does anyone expect Anderson to play off his head again like last season? I don't. Does anyone expect Colorado's old retreads (Foote and Liles) along with the rest of their unheralded defence core to hold up again this season without showing leaks? I sincerely doubt it.
I see Chicago taking a bit of a hit, but not much . . . IMHO they have improved in goal, and Turco is a true professional and will be stealing games here and there I feel. I think he has a very good season in him still. Plus, Detroit has not improved at all, and everyone is getting old there (and getting older with Modano!), and the rest of the division hasn't improved either. I still think they are the class of that division . . . so maybe they finish second or third at worst in the conference.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/05/2010 : 08:25:27
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Yeah, I agree. I didn't say the Cansucks would regress, but I sure hope they do. Ultimately, it comes down to the coaching and the style of play they employee. They are a little on the dirty side and take every liberty they can and then complain when the other team gets any kind of advantage playing the same style.
As far as the NW to lose, I think too many people are counting out the Flames. They competed all season and ultimately, a 6 game losing streak in January cost them their season. Comparatively to a team like Phoenix received 19 extra points from shootout and overtime wins, Calgary was 3rd worst in the league at 5-10 in OT/shoot outs.
Calgary has as good of goaltending and a better defense than Vancouver. I would absolutely give the edge offensively to Vancouver as there are still question marks in some areas in the Flames forwards. However, Calgary is pretty balanced through thier forwards. No one is going to mistake a group of top 6 forwards of Iginla, Hagman, Stajan, Jokinen, Bourque, and Tanguey(might even through Langkow in there) as the best in the league. But they are also far from chopped liver. Couple that with the likes of Glencross, Ivanans, Moss, and Stone and that group is solid.
Calgary will push Vancouver harder than most think and I would not be surprised to see the Flames take the division. |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 08/05/2010 : 09:01:32
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Well, I can say this about Calgary Beans: they will do better and should make the playoffs, but I can't see them pushing Vancouver.
Kipper is getting old, and so is Iginla . . . and these two need to play like superstars for Calgary to be a force. Great in their day, but perhaps now, I'd rate both as "second tier". The defence should gel better with a year under their belt too, and on paper they are excellent . . . but the offence is still thin without a monster season from Iggy and good bounce-back seasons from Jokinen and Tanguay. And we have yet to see the effect of a full season without Phaneuf . . . I have to think that the "fear factor" has dropped significantly for teams playing the Flames.
Really, the more I think about it, the more I am thinking it will still be a struggle for the Flames to make the postseason . . . just like the last one.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Guest7924
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Posted - 08/05/2010 : 09:54:01
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First off...why is Jumbo Joe even allowed to post comments on here anymore. All the guy does is post how every available player is going to San Jose than has nerve to suggest San Jose will finsih 27th? Nothing has really changed in San Jose minus getting rid of a golaie with a bad gauging reflex? San Jose has finished 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 5th overall the past four years. I can see how 27th overall makes sense.
I'd have to agree wih some of the other post as far Tampa and Toronto improving.
I think Tampa will be a strong contender in the East. Stamkos is only going to get better and I think Vinny will have a much better season. Moore is one of the most underated players in the league. I loved what he brought to the Leafs and Habs.
Toronto will improve this year hands down. Stability in the back end is a formula for success in any franchise. A healthy Komisarek penciled into a very strong defensive core With Phanuef, Kaberle, Komisarek, Beauchemin, Schenn and Gunnarson rounding out you top 6 defensmen I think the offense will come especially in a Power Play driven league.
I agree with Irvine....Pittsburg won't be going anywhere. Top 5 in the East. They addressed their biggest issue...Defense. They way Gonchar gave up in that last game against Montreal made me sick. Michalek and Martin with stabilze the back end making Fleury's job a lot easier. People jump all over the penguins for having no wingers but they partner Crosby and Malkin together ocassionally throughout every game and every PP. The goals will be there. Oh no they lost Gonchar...althoug still very productive, at 36 he missed 20 games last year and only played 25 the year before. Moving Gonchar made sense.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/05/2010 : 09:59:53
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quote:
Calgary has as good of goaltending and a better defense than Vancouver. I would absolutely give the edge offensively to Vancouver as there are still question marks in some areas in the Flames forwards. However, Calgary is pretty balanced through thier forwards. No one is going to mistake a group of top 6 forwards of Iginla, Hagman, Stajan, Jokinen, Bourque, and Tanguey(might even through Langkow in there) as the best in the league. But they are also far from chopped liver. Couple that with the likes of Glencross, Ivanans, Moss, and Stone and that group is solid.
I would not give CGY a leg up in the defense department personally - call it bias if you like, but I see them being pretty evenly stacked up. I give the edge to VAN for goaltending, although I'm also making that claim assuming that Luongo will bounce back from last year's mediocre season. The real advantage there is offense - the VAN offense is better than what CGY has to offer, and that is why they will beat them out in the NW.
I think most would be very surprised to see CGY take the NW next year.
quote:
They are a little on the dirty side and take every liberty they can and then complain when the other team gets any kind of advantage playing the same style.
Yeah. What team doesn't?
@Slozo - I also question COL, I don't know if Anderson can do what he did last year. I have the same question about Bryzgalov and PHX, I just don't know. Both of those team's success hinged mightily on their goaltending, so we'll see what happens. |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/05/2010 : 11:56:03
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Really?? At least you can admit your bias as I would think most impartial opinions would see that Calgary has legitimate #1, #2, #3, etc defensemen. They have legitimate PP ability from the back end and they have legitimate shutdown pieces. Furthermore, they have back ups that can step in to every role. Their #3 (Giordano/White) could fill in for their #1(Bouwmeester) or their #5/6 (Staios/Sarich) can fill the #4 role if needed.
Vancouver has a make shift #1 in Erhoff who is actually more suited to be a #2. 3-#3's in Edler, Hamhuis, and Ballard, and then what??? Nothing much on the PP and Ballard as the only legitimate shutdown piece.
Ultimately, I would compare the Edmonton defense with Foster, Gilbert, Whitney, Smid, Vandermeer, and Peckham with Vancouver.
Both are still inferior to the talent that Calgary puts on the ice each night.
With all due respect, Vancouver's defensive group is a poor man's Calgary. The Flames have one of the top 5 defensive groups in the league, which was proven last year with their 5th fewest goal against in the NHL. Vancouver was 12th, which is still respectable. However, adding Hamhuis and Ballard is not enough to put them in the elite catagory. They still do not have a world class puck mover nor a world class PP guy. Calgary has both.
We are comparing a good to perhaps very good defense to an elite defense. It's really not that hard of an argument.
And finally, to your point about what team does not take liberties and complain when their style of play comes back to bite them. Um, well very few. Detroit plays a clean game and don't complain about anything. New York Rangers play on the edge style and know it. Torts doesn't blame the refs when Avery takes a stupid penalty, he blames Avery.
Most teams know the style they play and understand and expect their fate. Maybe it's because I see so much Vancouver and don't see as much of other teams, but I would be hard pressed to agree with any example of a team that (as a group) complains as much as the Canucks. |
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Guest7936
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Posted - 08/05/2010 : 14:23:25
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Without adding any substance:
-I second Beans on the VAN vs CGY defence question 100%. I would peg Vancouver's defence as a major factor of their relatively early playoff exits the last couple of years.
-I second the guest about revoking Jumbo Joe's posting privileges. Btw: I heard that Mario Lemieux is coming out of retirement to sign with San Jose! |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/05/2010 : 16:11:25
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quote:
Really?? At least you can admit your bias as I would think most impartial opinions would see that Calgary has legitimate #1, #2, #3, etc defensemen. They have legitimate PP ability from the back end and they have legitimate shutdown pieces. Furthermore, they have back ups that can step in to every role. Their #3 (Giordano/White) could fill in for their #1(Bouwmeester) or their #5/6 (Staios/Sarich) can fill the #4 role if needed.
Vancouver has a make shift #1 in Erhoff who is actually more suited to be a #2. 3-#3's in Edler, Hamhuis, and Ballard, and then what??? Nothing much on the PP and Ballard as the only legitimate shutdown piece.
Ultimately, I would compare the Edmonton defense with Foster, Gilbert, Whitney, Smid, Vandermeer, and Peckham with Vancouver.
That is because you're biased. Fortunately, I actually did some research and stats comparisons between CGY and VAN defense from last year, using the top 7 dmen from each team:
CGY: Bouwemeester, Regher, Phaneuf (while with CGY), White (while with CGY), Sarich, Giordano, Pardy
VAN: Erhoff, Salo, Bieksa, Mitchell, SOB, Edler, Rome
Goals:
- CGY: 33 (12 on the pp), representing 16.5% of all of CGY goals
- VAN: 37 (15 on the pp), 13.8% of all VAN goals
Assists:
- CGY: 92 (33 on pp), 25% of all CGY assists
- VAN: 123 (47 on pp), 26% of all VAN assists
- plus/minus:
- CGY: +26 (team +/- was -3)
- VAN: +71 (team was +196)
Based on this, I'm not sure how you can label CGY defense superior to VAN. Vancouver's defense proved more mobile, better attacking, and formidable on the PP vs Calgary's. The only area where VAN's defense was (arguably) weaker was +/- compared to team +/-; CGY defense managed to be a combined plus compared to the overall team -, while VAN was only +71 compared to overall team +196. I think my numbers are out for CGY overall +/-, as players like Kotalik, Staios that were very minus were not with CGY the whole year...
And this year... VAN has lost only Mitchell (4g, 8a, +2), but replaced with Hamhuis and Ballard (combined 13g, 39a, -3).
quote:
With all due respect, Vancouver's defensive group is a poor man's Calgary. The Flames have one of the top 5 defensive groups in the league, which was proven last year with their 5th fewest goal against in the NHL. Vancouver was 12th, which is still respectable
Still respectable? the total GA differed by 12 between CGY and VAN. 12 goals, over 82 games. I would hardly call that much of a differentiation, especially when you're talking about one as an "elite defensive group" and the other as a "poor man's Calgary"
quote:
They still do not have a world class puck mover nor a world class PP guy. Calgary has both.
I would argue that both teams have neither. Who on the CGY defense is a "world class PP guy"? Who is the "world class puck mover"? Bouwemeester? The same Bouwemeester that had 29 points last year (12 of them on the PP) and played 25 minutes per game? The same Bouwemeester that has scored 40 points 3 times in his career, and has 20 pp points only once in that career?
As a comparison, Erhoff had 44 points last year, 23 of them on the pp. In his last 4 seasons in the NHL, he has 2 40+ point campaigns, and scored more than 20 of those points on the PP each year.
I would certainly not call Erhoff a "world class" puck mover or pp guy. And in the same vein, I would not give Bouwemeester that label either.
quote:
We are comparing a good to perhaps very good defense to an elite defense. It's really not that hard of an argument.
It seems to be a lot less clear cut when you throw actual statistics into the mix...
quote:
I second Beans on the VAN vs CGY defence question 100%. I would peg Vancouver's defence as a major factor of their relatively early playoff exits the last couple of years.
Guest, thanks for your input. I would point out two things here:
1. VAN's defense was a major reason why they ACTUALLY MADE the playoffs last year. Where was CGY when the real season began?
2. VAN's playoff failures were largely a result of injuries to said defense. When SOB is your #2 dman because of injuries to Mitchell, Bieksa, and Salo, you know you're in trouble.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 08/05/2010 : 16:43:56
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WOW! I just knew nuxfan wasn't gonna be able to stay quiet after all that was said  !!!
Personally, i think both D's are very similar and close when it comes to comparisons. I've never been a huge fan of Boumeester and was one of the few last year who said i felt he's overrated but he's still an above avg dman. Personally, i don't see him with the offensive ability that some think he'll reach (and he certainly didn't come close last year?).
I agree with Beans in that Calgary shouldn't be written off just yet. Let's face it, with the points for OT's and shootouts, it's much more difficult to put room between you and your division rivals. It seems every year that it comes down to the last few weeks between teams to settle playoff spots and a team you think might be out of it, can suddenly be in the hunt come April. I still think Vancouver will win their division and be top three in the conference, but it's not a given like SJ has been recently!
BTW, SJ in 27th?  No comment needed.....
Beans, to your comments about the Canucks "style" and their "whining" etc..... This is something you've touched on in the past and by all means, you're entitled to your opinion. You do admit that it may be because you see much more of them than other teams but i truly believe you are taking a few incidents that got a ton of media attention (*note - due to the seriousness of the implications) and pasting that rep on the Canucks as if they're ALL like that, they've ALWAYS been like that and they will continue to be like that. IMO, not fair, but it's only an opinion so i won't sweat over it. I really would prefer not to have to get into another multi-page discussion about the Burrows / Auger incident, nor the Leafs tampering with the Sedins incident, etc and i'm guessing you and everyone else on here prob doesn't either?
As for Hamhuis..... i almost agree with you Beans that he's overpaid IF he's a #3 dman. I'm guessing that the Canucks have plans for him to be top 2 here, which doesn't necessarily mean playing on the top pair either, right? We'll have to wait and see, but the money they threw at him, while supposedly being a "home town discount", definitely was market driven (by the FA market that is!).
Lastly....nuxfan, i love your fire!!! 
My predictions, albeit early.....
TB improves, maybe squeezes into 7th or 8th?
Leafs improve, just miss the dance
Habs finish just out of playoffs, Price has decent year, nothing too special, nothing horrible
Pitts makes playoffs, seed depends on div winners of course
Van finishes top 3 in west
Chi falls a bit, still makes playoffs, hopefully doesn't face the Canucks in the playoffs!
SJ takes a step down the ladder, still easily makes playoffs
STL slips into 8th seed
Def will make final predictions as the season gets nearer..... |
Edited by - Alex116 on 08/05/2010 16:49:21 |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/05/2010 : 22:21:04
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oh man...Alex, thanks for filling in the blanks. I don't think I was on this board when the Burrows/Auger incident occurred, so I don't know what transpired. If THAT is what Beans is referring to about VAN always whining...well I'm not sure what to say. One incident does not a team make.
quote:
As for Hamhuis..... i almost agree with you Beans that he's overpaid IF he's a #3 dman. I'm guessing that the Canucks have plans for him to be top 2 here, which doesn't necessarily mean playing on the top pair either, right?
Bingo.
I don't know where Hamhuis will fit in the depth chart, or if there will be a solid and distinguishable "top pairing" on defense. I am certain that Hamhuis, Ballard, Erhoff, and Edler will be the top-4, and where they will fit will largely be up to chemistry. However, I would not be surprised if the top 2 defensive lines get pretty equal minutes through the season, depending on opposing team matchups. We'll see how things roll at training camp.
I would think Ballard is the go-to shutdown dman, but Hamhuis could fill a shutdown role as well. He'll definitely see some PP time, although with Erhoff and Edler it will probably be second string. But again, who knows.
Mostly though, I see the Hamhuis signing to be a sort of insurance policy against losing Erhoff. As much as I want to keep Erhoff next year, if he puts up another 45 point season next year he'll be expensive, and they may have to let him go in the offseason. Next season, the Canucks look to be down Salo, Bieksa, and possibly Erhoff as well - thats a lot of core defense to lose in a single offseason. If Erhoff goes, Hamhuis most definitely falls into a top-2 pairing, at least on the Canucks. |
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polishexpress
PickupHockey Pro
525 Posts |
Posted - 08/05/2010 : 23:17:49
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Beans, I must side with the canucks fans( ).
Good stats worked nuxfan, I double checked you! Vancouver also proved to be superior(using your same base nuxfan) in PP goals(16:12) in game winners(7:4), OT goals (3:1) and shots (654:586). For me those are all slim margins.
So, I really don't think that either d-corps is better than the other. For me they both stink!
And, I predict that EDM will not finish last. They will finish second last, and win the lottery to get the #1 pick 2 years running. (I hope!) |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 04:59:54
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I am also siding with Canucks fans here - I think the two defences are quite comparable . . . no true #1 guy (Vancouver could have said they had one with Salo back in the day, but not today) - but overall fairly deep with what we call #2 and #3 guys.
Both Calgary and Vancouver have good, but maybe not great, defences. Calgary as a team played a very tight, defensive system, and the numbers reflect that - Vancouver really opened up a lot more last year, and the numbers reflect that as well.
In either case, it's hard to take any comment about Calgary making the playoffs seriously, when contemplating the team as it stands right now is relatively unchanged from last year. What will push them in the playoffs this year - an older Kipprusoff playing less games? A diminished Iginla? A couple of has-beens like Langkow, Tanguay and you can throw in Jokinen as well?
I think Calgary would need an out-of-the-blue career season or two from some key people to make the show, but that's just me observing from afar, as it is western conference.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 08:12:24
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in this thread i keep hearing a older iginla a diminished iginla ..... IMO iggy is still a top 10 player in the league and is FAR better player than most teams number one forward,, a guranteed 500 goal scorer and even a good chance at 600 and hes what 33? 34 .... he is very capable of bringing home all the hardware next year that Crosby and the two russian have brought home the last 3 years,, Iggy is very very capable of a 100 point season next year if he gets some help
Pasty |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 08:54:12
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Pasty - I will tell you why we say "diminished" when talking about a 33 year old Iginla . . .
. . . cause it'll be a struggle for him to score more than thirty, and in all probability he won't ever score more than 35 goals again in a season. That is the reality. And he is a goalscorer, not a playmaker . . . although he is highly skilled and could certainly get you 35, 40 assists, with the right linemates who can score.
Where are those linemates?
There was an interesting link before the contention of Kovalchuk's deal which talked about any player who had ever scored 50 goals at one time, and it charted those players' goal scoring as related to their age. It was very, very eye opening . . . and basically what it pointed out is, that as a goalscorer, after 30, you are probably done as an "elite" scorer.
Yeah, Iggy scored his second 50 goal season at the age of 30, so he could be sort of grouped together with the exceptions to the rule . . . but it ain't happening again, is what I am saying - and 40 is probably just as out of reach.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 08:56:21
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slozo/polishexpress - I also agree and had said the same from the getgo, neither team has a stellar defense, and both are quite evenly stacked up.
Some other stats that I didn't think to pull down yesterday:
Blocked shots:
- Van - 991 (24th in the league)
- Cal - 1062 (18th in the league)
Shots allowed:
- Van - 2412
- Cal - 2808
The blocked shots are pretty similar, and I was surprised by the difference in shots allowed, even though CGY had less goals against. I think that speaks volumes about the kind of year Kipper had last year.
quote:
Iggy is very very capable of a 100 point season next year if he gets some help
Patsy - agreed, and we've probably been agreeing for several years now. Problem is, CGY never seems to do what they need to, and I don't (IMO) think they've done it this year either.
Although Stajan could surprise - and if Stajan does surprise and light it up with Iginla, then the Phaneuf trade could look a lot more even than it does now
quote:
And, I predict that EDM will not finish last. They will finish second last, and win the lottery to get the #1 pick 2 years running. (I hope!)
Polishexpress - its good to have dreams I suppose . Seriously though, I'd be surprised if EDM finished anywhere near the bottom this year. I think they'll be a good and exciting team to watch. |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 09:11:32
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First of all, I never said that Calgary's defense is better than Vancouver's offensively speaking. However, I still believe they are better overall. And +/- is the most over used and so often misunderstood stat in the NHL. Without getting into a convoluted explaination, it really says nothing about how good a defense or offense it. It only compares the two against each other. Vancouver overall was a far better offensive team than Calgary last year so that will increase their +/-. It's also interesting how Calgary allowed more goals against then they scored yet their defensive group was a +26. How does that work??
Ultimately, I look at it this way. Agree or disagree, doesn't matter
Bouwmeester is better than Erhoff
Regher is better than Ballard
Hamhuis and White are virtually the same
Giordano and Edler are virtually the same
Bieka is better than Sarich(but he may not be there opening day)
Staios is better than O'Brien
So looking top 6 to top 6, I pick 3 Flames outright over the Canuck in the same position, 1 Canuck, and 2 players are a wash.
And to say I am biased seriously made me laugh. I have repeatedly stated on here that I can't stand Vancouver. But I have also repeated stated that my other most hated NHL teams are Calgary and Toronto.
I hate both Calgary and Vancouver and that makes me bias how??? I am not seeing this issue through the eyes of a fan of either team. I am seeing this as an 'anit-fan' of both teams. |
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Leafs81
PickupHockey Pro
735 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 09:44:33
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I am with Beans about Calgary competing with Vancouver for the NW crown. They have a very solid top six, I believe Tanguay will do good he was playing well with Iginla, and to add Jokinen in the mix, I mean yeah they let him go but IMO last year they let him go too fast. Jokinen is still a big center who can play top line in the NHL. And having Bourque, Hagman, Langkow it rounds up the top six pretty good. Anyway I just see Calgary to be a surprise next season. Last season was disapointed and they will bounce back. Giodarno is starting to play really good, along with Bouwmeester and Regehr the defense is solid and Kipper played well last year, and he's still a consistent goalie.
As for in the east I see Atlanta to be the biggest surprise in the league. A la Colorado and Phoenix last year, and a la St Louis and Columbus the year before.
I think they will battle for second in the southeast with TB and battle for a playoff spot. from 7 to 10. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 10:01:13
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quote:
First of all, I never said that Calgary's defense is better than Vancouver's offensively speaking. However, I still believe they are better overall. And +/- is the most over used and so often misunderstood stat in the NHL. Without getting into a convoluted explaination, it really says nothing about how good a defense or offense it. It only compares the two against each other. Vancouver overall was a far better offensive team than Calgary last year so that will increase their +/-. It's also interesting how Calgary allowed more goals against then they scored yet their defensive group was a +26. How does that work??
I think my team +/- stats are out for both teams. On NHL.com, I found a great series of comparisons. According to them, the stats are:
Plus/minus:
- CGY: +9 (defensemen were +26)
- VAN: +41 (defensemen were +71)
So in that regards, both were pretty even.
However, I agree, plus minus is not a great stat for measuring things like this. What stats would you consider here as valid measurements - or are you just going to go with your feelings on this one?
Regarding your bias - I was actually talking about your assertion that the VAN defense was similar in skill to EDM. Talking about making one laugh 
quote:
Ultimately, I look at it this way. Agree or disagree, doesn't matter
Bouwmeester is better than Erhoff
Regher is better than Ballard
Hamhuis and White are virtually the same
Giordano and Edler are virtually the same
Bieka is better than Sarich(but he may not be there opening day)
Staios is better than O'Brien
So looking top 6 to top 6, I pick 3 Flames outright over the Canuck in the same position, 1 Canuck, and 2 players are a wash.
I suppose we disagree. I don't look at this as a man-to-man thing, but rather a team-to-team thing. You have compared single defensemen to each other, but hockey is not a game of individuals. Look at it from another way - would you rather have as your top 4:
- Bouwemeester, Regher, White, Giordano
or
- Ballard, Erhoff, Edler, Hamhuis
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 11:02:39
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Stajan won't surprise, and Iginla will never get even a sniff of 100 points again. Maybe 80, but that's a stretch at this point, considering who his linemates are.
Calgary finishes out, this is my final verdict barring a trade of importance.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 11:09:08
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quote:
Originally posted by slozo
Stajan won't surprise, and Iginla will never get even a sniff of 100 points again. Maybe 80, but that's a stretch at this point, considering who his linemates are.
Calgary finishes out, this is my final verdict barring a trade of importance.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
care to put a friendly wager on Iginla, i am prepared to bet Iggy tops 35 golas this year and is at least 5 points over a point per game,,, if you wanna take me up on that i'll let you choose the stakes
Pasty |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 11:23:56
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Bouwmeester had one bad year. Outside of that, he is an elite defensemen. White is on his way to becoming an amazing player. I like those two guys far better than what Vancouver has to offer. I also like Regher as a shutdown kind of guy over Ballard. Giordano made huge strides last year but I really like Edler and he is growing into a really special player.
If I was choosing a top 4 from that group of 8, I take Bouwmeester, Edler, White, and Regher. Hamhuis is a close 2nd choice to White, but I like speed and puck moving ability more than Hamhuis.
Secondly, I am not using stats at all. I am using my opinion based on watching both groups play 12-18 times a season. I like Calgary's defense. They are fast and mobile yet still big and strong. They don't make a ton of mistakes and there are no glarding weakness anywhere in their top 6. Comparatively, Vancouver is not they type of defense that can impose their will on bigger or better offensive teams nor are they a group that can lock down the final 5 minutes of the game when needed. You are correct in their top 4 are solid, but their last 2 are average to below average.
Finally, is it that laughable to compare Foster, Whitney, Gilbert, Smid, Vandermeer and Strudwick/Peckham to the Vancouver group?? Might want to take a look at the comparison. Not that one is significantly better than they other but that they are comparable. I would agree that Vancouver's defense is better than the Oilers, but not by that much at all. Van's average size and weight is 6'11/2" and 210 lbs. The Oilers is bigger at 6'3' and 215. The Oilers have 3 defensemen with more than 30 points last season and 3 who have had more than 40 points in a season. The Canucks have the same. Ballard is one of the better defensive defensemen in the game and Smid is growing into that but is not there yet. Where the Canucks have the Oilers is in depth at the 5 and 6 spots. Bieksa and O'Brien are better than Strudwick/Peckham and Vandermeer.
However, it is far from laughable to say they are comparable. That is not bias speaking at all. To say it is laughable is where I see the bias.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 12:10:38
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First things first, Beans / Slozo / other mods.... This thread is getting confusing fast! Is there a way to split it and move the defense comparisons to one thread and leave the rest here? The Iginla debate seems fine for this thread "who will do well...." but the other stuff is getting mixed in? Or is it up to someone to simply start a new thread?
Now, on to the confusing stuff....
quote:
Originally posted by slozo
Stajan won't surprise, and Iginla will never get even a sniff of 100 points again. Maybe 80, but that's a stretch at this point, considering who his linemates are.
Calgary finishes out, this is my final verdict barring a trade of importance.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
Slozo, i agree that Iggy is due for a drop but to say he'll never get even a sniff of 100 pts again is not fair, seeing as he's never reached the 100pt barrier to begin with! His best season was 07/08 when he got to 98 including 50 goals. His next best was 52 goals and 96 pts in 01/02. He's only ever eclipsed 90 on one other occasion so really we should prob only expect him to be in the 85-90 pt range at this point in his career (for a good year). I think what i'm trying to say is that Pasty's bet seems pretty fair?
As far as the defenses go (Van vs Cal) i maintain, they are pretty equal. If one has an edge on the other, it's certainly not that big in my opinion. Let's face it, #'s, as in #1 dman, #2 dman, etc are just that, numbers. It really comes down to defining what you call a #1 dman. Is it your shut down guy? Your pp specialist? Or simply the guy who logs the most ice time? Personally, i think there are not many teams with what i would call a true #1. Guys like Pronger, Neidermayer, Keith, Myers (still not totally proven), Doughty, etc are absolute stud dmen. I hardly even call Mike Green a true #1 at this point. But that's just me.....
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 13:05:39
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quote:
However, it is far from laughable to say they are comparable. That is not bias speaking at all. To say it is laughable is where I see the bias.
Beans - you're talking about the defensive corps of a team that finished dead last in the league and allowed 282 GA, and an avg of 33 shots against per game (27th in the league), vs a division winning Canucks that allowed 60 fewer goals and under 30 shots a game (11th in the league). And I won't get into offensive stats here either. I'm not really sure how you can make that comparison.
As for the CGY defense, I guess we'll agree to disagree. I cannot call a career 40-pt defenseman an "elite" - the only things elite about Bouwemeester are his contract and the expectations heaped upon him, and he has to prove that he is that elite dman before I will concede. Agree that White is going to be solid, but would take Ballard over Regher - both are great shutdown, but Ballard brings offensive upside. Agree that Edler and Giordano are similar in terms of current upswing and potential.
In other words, pretty even.
To bring this back to the thread though... I also think that CGY and VAN will be battling it out for the division again (perhaps due to lack of any other real powers), although I would not consider that surprising - what would be really surprising is if CGY sucks wind again next year and misses the playoffs. Then the Sutters have to start asking some real questions.
The only way Iggy gets near 100 pts if if he builds some meaningful chemistry with Stajan. CGY has decided that he is the man to setup Iggy, so it will either work out great or Iggy will have another mediocre (by his standards) year. |
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Deaner
Rookie
Canada
107 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 14:43:45
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i see the leafs having a decent season, just missing playoffs.
habs might fall out of a spot take 8th if their lucky.
new jersey is going to kill it providing kovalchuk is a devil.
washington same as last year....bruins a little better this year, carolina better, tampa bay playoffs, rangers slide even further, philly chokes, chicago chokes barely make a spot, calgary chokes, vancouver rips it up, edmonton moves up a bit still no playoffs, san jose will be fine without nabby....they will get niemi.
Final prediction......New Jersey Devils will win the cup this year and they will face......Vancouver or LA but i think the kings still need a couple years to get it. Would be killer to watch marty and luongo fight for it. |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2010 : 14:44:51
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No, I am not talking about the defensive core that did all that last year. I am talking about a defensive core that dropped Visnovsky, Staios, Souray, and Grebeshkov last season and picked up Foster, Whitney, and Vandermeer.
I am not comparing the numbers and performance last season. I am comparing the players who will be on the ice this season based on performance and potential.
I don't think you have a leg to stand on saying that the Oilers defense last season to this season is two completely different groups.
If we were comparing last years defense to this year, you are 100% correct.
So, as you seem to be full of numbers, compare the stats of Whitney, Gilbert, and Foster to Erhoff, Edler, and Hamhuis and tell me where the difference is??? Tell me where the vast different between Smid, Vandermeer, and Strudwick with Ballard, Bieksa, and O'Brien???
As I said, I am not saying Edmonton is better, I am saying they are comparable. Edmonton is bigger, is as fast, as offensively talented. Vancouver would have an edge in defensive abilities. If you can't see that, I guess we are watching very different games. |
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Topic |
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Who will do well next season? 
