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Sensfan101
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
500 Posts

Posted - 06/19/2011 :  09:36:29  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Poll Question:
With the playoffs now over and the draft coming up who do you think the Oilers will take 1st overall?

Choices:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Adam Larsson
Gabriel Landeskog
Other

(Anonymous Vote)

Edited by - Sensfan101 on 06/20/2011 09:06:49

Guest7752
( )

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  05:42:31  Reply with Quote
"Other"
I hope they'll trade this pick for a solid veteran or goalie.
They have enough young guns - it's time to find a leader to move this team to the next level.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4517 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  05:54:09  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Isn't it Nugent-Hopkins? (missing an 'n' in there?)

Hmm, let me see what my good buddy Bob McKenzie has to say . . . he's almost always dead on when picking who the top three, top 5 in the draft are going to be, and how they are rated.

McKenzie's picks so far:
1) Nugent-Hopkins, C, 6-1, 170lbs.
In 2010-11, Nugent-Hopkins led the WHL in assists (75), finished fourth overall in points (106) and was named an Eastern Conference First-Team All-Star after helping the Red Deer Rebels to a first place finish in the Central Division.

2) Adam Larsson, D, 6-3, 200 lbs.
Playing in his second full season with Skelleftea in 2010-11, he was only the third defenceman to make his Elite League debut at 16 years of age. He represented Sweden at the 2010 and 2011 World Junior Championship, finishing as the team's highest scoring defender at the tournament in 2011 with four points.

3) Gabriel Landeskog, LW, 6-1, 207 lbs
Despite an ankle injury shortening his season to just 53 games, Landeskog led Kitchener with 36 goals and a plus-27 rating. In the first round of the 2011 playoffs he led the Rangers forwards with ten points (6-4--10) in the seven-game series loss to Plymouth.

I think it'll be a no-brainer for the Oil to pick Nugent-Hopkins, especially since they want a future top line centre (who doesn't?) to play with Hall and Eberle.

Of note, doesn't look like any goalies will get picked in the first round, and although there are no "can't miss" prospects, the overall level of prospects has been rated fairly high (deep draft, but no high end superstars).

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8154 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  08:02:08  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Rumors around Edmonton is that Nugent-Hopkins is a done deal. A very common opinion of drafting players in the NHL is you draft the best player available not what your team needs. For that, Hopkins in the concensus #1 in almost every draft report.

The other rumors flying around is that Edmonton is interested in moving up and getting a 2nd players in the top 10. Apparently, the #19 via LA in the Penner deal is on the table as well as a roster player. If (and it's a big if) the Oilers can move up to around 8th, they could get their hands on Couturier(currently listed at 6th) or Ryan Strome (currently listed at 8th) than they will have the #1 and #2 centre, at least in theory, for the next decade.


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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
2240 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  08:05:40  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

Rumors around Edmonton is that Nugent-Hopkins is a done deal. A very common opinion of drafting players in the NHL is you draft the best player available not what your team needs. For that, Hopkins in the concensus #1 in almost every draft report.

The other rumors flying around is that Edmonton is interested in moving up and getting a 2nd players in the top 10. Apparently, the #19 via LA in the Penner deal is on the table as well as a roster player. If (and it's a big if) the Oilers can move up to around 8th, they could get their hands on Couturier(currently listed at 6th) or Ryan Strome (currently listed at 8th) than they will have the #1 and #2 centre, at least in theory, for the next decade.






if they move up beans don't you think they would be moving up to try and get their hands on a top 10 d man in the draft? i mean i agree with the idea of drafting the best player possible but adding a top d prospect should be a priority i would think

"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8154 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  08:37:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Maybe, but I wouldn't think so. The Oilers defense is not in as bad shape as people might think. They are pretty solid and young in the 1-3 spots with Whitney, Gilbert, and Foster. Peckham is developing nicely and Smid is a servicable 4-5-6 guy. They also have Petry, Plante, and Colton Toubert coming down the pipe plus guys like Motin, Petoit, and Blain who could be quality players as well.

Not saying they do not want or need another quality guy to replace Foster in the #3 spot as he is not as good as a team would want a player in that spot, but not at the sacrifice of a quality centre. Further, there are few examples of top 5 defensemen that are NHL ready in a short period of time. In fact, I read a story that shows every top 5 drafted defensemen with the exception of Drew Doughty, Luke Schenn, and Zach Bogosian in the past 10 years has been traded.

Doughty/Hedman type of players are rare who can step in and be quality NHL players from day one. I would rather see the Oilers stock pile great young talent at any position and use those players to pick up quality defensemen when needed.

I still say go good and deep down the middle. It is hard to look at most any team who have been successful in recent years without quality at the centre position.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5695 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  12:44:39  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
In fact, I read a story that shows every top 5 drafted defensemen with the exception of Drew Doughty, Luke Schenn, and Zach Bogosian in the past 10 years has been traded.



Beans, no way that story is accurate. I don't have time to go back and look through 10 years of drafts but i do recall the Blues drafing Alex Pietrangelo 4th overall and he is still there. That was the Stamkos draft where following Stamkos it went Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo and Schenn at 2,3,4&5. I'm guessing there a others but could be wrong? Maybe the writer missed that one and the rest have in fact been dealt?
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8154 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  13:44:18  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think I might have mis-quoted the story. It was 2000-2006 defensemen drafted in the top 5.

Here is a list of all the defensement drafted in the top 5 in the past 10 years.

'00 - Klesla
'01 - None
'02 Whitney, Pitkanen, Bouwmeester
'03 - None
'04 - Cam Barker
'05 - Jack Johnson
'06 - Erik Johnson
'07- Hickey, Alzner
'08 - Doughty, Bogozian, Pietroanglo, Schenn
'09 - Hedman
'10 - Gudbranson

I'm not sure about you, but of that list there are but a few elite players. I wouldn't waste a top 5 pick on a D-man unless he was nearly a sure thing.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4517 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  13:50:38  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

I think I might have mis-quoted the story. It was 2000-2006 defensemen drafted in the top 5.

Here is a list of all the defensement drafted in the top 5 in the past 10 years.

'00 - Klesla
'01 - None
'02 Whitney, Pitkanen, Bouwmeester
'03 - None
'04 - Cam Barker
'05 - Jack Johnson
'06 - Erik Johnson
'07- Hickey, Alzner
'08 - Doughty, Bogozian, Pietroanglo, Schenn
'09 - Hedman
'10 - Gudbranson

I'm not sure about you, but of that list there are but a few elite players. I wouldn't waste a top 5 pick on a D-man unless he was nearly a sure thing.



I don't know about you, but I would count a few of those players as elite, and more than half of them pretty valuable.

I certainly think that's a good track record, considering many are not top two picks - this is top 5 we're talking about.

Rate the next three forwards taken after the d-men listed, then tell me how much better it would have been to take a forward as opposed to a d-man.

Only a few of them elite. Laughable!

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3563 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  14:13:51  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
its too soon to label most of them as elite or not elite. Remember, 2008 was only 3 short years ago, not many players in any position go from draft to elite in that short time.

Bouwmeester and Doughty are certainly the cream of the crop in that list, but I'd be more than happy if my team included any of Hedman, Bogozian, Schenn, Peitroangelo, Alzner, Johnson&Johnson, or Barker - as slozo says, that list is pretty impressive. Elite maybe not, but very solid "blue chip" young defensemen, yes.

All that being said though - certainly the Oilers will take the best player available, regardless of position. If it is Nugent-Hopkins, then they'll take him, even if they need a defenseman.

Is it just me, or does anyone else think that N-H won't make the big club in year 1? At 170lbs, he's pretty small - regardless of skill and speed, he's going to get physically decimated if he comes into the NHL at that size.

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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5695 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  15:30:05  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan

its too soon to label most of them as elite or not elite. Remember, 2008 was only 3 short years ago, not many players in any position go from draft to elite in that short time.

Bouwmeester and Doughty are certainly the cream of the crop in that list, but I'd be more than happy if my team included any of Hedman, Bogozian, Schenn, Peitroangelo, Alzner, Johnson&Johnson, or Barker - as slozo says, that list is pretty impressive. Elite maybe not, but very solid "blue chip" young defensemen, yes.

All that being said though - certainly the Oilers will take the best player available, regardless of position. If it is Nugent-Hopkins, then they'll take him, even if they need a defenseman.

Is it just me, or does anyone else think that N-H won't make the big club in year 1? At 170lbs, he's pretty small - regardless of skill and speed, he's going to get physically decimated if he comes into the NHL at that size.





I agree that Nugent-Hopkins will be in tough at his size, but wouldn't rule it out that he'd get a shot on a young team like the Oilers.
As for the "cream of the crop", i'm not, and never have been, sold on Boumeester. Dunno, maybe he was just hyped too much but he's never lived up to the billing in my mind.
Love the upside on guys like Hedman, Pietrangelo and the Johnsons and i'm interested to see if Bogosian can become a stud in his new city.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8154 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  16:28:26  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Really Slozo, other than Doughty, Whitney, and Bouwmeester, who is elite?? Even Bouwmeester is a stretch as elite based on his play over the past 2 seasons.

There are a ton of players with upside but not proven yet. There is a difference.

And just for you, here is a look at the forwards taken in the 1st round after these elite defensemen.

'00- Klesla went #4. Hartnell, Frolov, Boyes, and Justin Williams all went later in the 1st round.
'01-No defensemen in the top 5, Komisarek went #7. Hemsky, Umburger, and Armstrong went later in the 1st round.
'02 - Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, and Whitney went 3, 4, 5. Forwards taken later in the 1st round were Semin, Lupul, and Eager
'03 - No defensemen in the top 5, Suter, Colburn, and Phaneuf went 7, 8, 9. Forwards taken later in the 1st round were Carter, D Brown, Parise, Getlaf, Richards, and Perry.
'04 - Barker went #3. Forwards later in the 1st round were Wheeler, Stafford, Radulov, Zajac, and Wolski
'05 -Jack Johnson went #3, later in the 1st round were Setoguchi, Kopitar, Bergfors, Oshie, and Downie
'06 - Erik Johnson went #1, followed by J. Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel, Okposo, Muller, Frolik, Grabner, Giroux, and Bergland
'07 - Hickey and Alzner went 4 and 5 with Gagner, Couture, Vorecek, and Perron later in the 1st round
'08 - Doughty, Bogosian, Peitroanglo, and Schenn were 1-4, followed by Filatov, Wilson, Bailey, Eberle, and Ennis later in the 1st round


I'll stop there as the verdict is still out on many of the guys from 09 and 10 however I think an argument can be made for most of the draft seasons above.


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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5695 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  17:10:07  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
'03 - No defensemen in the top 5, Suter, Colburn, and Phaneuf went 7, 8, 9. Forwards taken later in the 1st round were Carter, D Brown, Parise, Getlaf, Richards, and Perry.




Beans, only you would leave Kesler out of that list of players from '03 who went later than the Dmen listed

Difficult argument really as not all prospects, be it a D or a F, pan out. I'm sure LA looks back and wishes they'd taken Perry instead of Tambellini who they took right before the Hart Trophy nominee! Of course, there's many of these examples, and the draft is somewhat of a crapshoot unless you've got a guaranteed guy like Crosby, though those are few and far between. Wasn't Daigle supposed to be a saviour in Ottawa? Didn't quite work out that way did it?
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8154 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  18:50:23  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I didn't leave Kesler out intentionally. I simple missed him. I am sure I missed others as well. All I was trying to do is to show that defensemen choose in the top 5 are not always the best pick. In some cases they are, in others they are not.


It's far from a laughable theory.
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1028 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  19:35:16  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Take the best player available in the draft...even if you don`t need that position the player is an asset.

After the sure thing ( which there aren`t many ) pick the biggest, most skilled Canadian player available.....they win stanley cups

It just amazes me how professional scouts can watch players like R.Getzlaf and C.Perry....with their size to boot....and not have them as front runners in the draft.

It blows my mind how these guys slip under the radar and don`t go in the top 5.....as many have stated, the draft is a crap shoot.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3563 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  21:41:44  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:

It just amazes me how professional scouts can watch players like R.Getzlaf and C.Perry....with their size to boot....and not have them as front runners in the draft.



I think you're forgetting how deep that 2003 draft year was duke. I mean honestly, look at the first round - its pretty hard to argue with the worth of most of those players. On draft day, when you know nothing that you know now, who's to say one won't be better than the other? Already, 6 of them have won Stanley Cups, and another 7 have played in Stanley Cup finals. Nearly everyone in the first round was a quality pick

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_NHL_Entry_Draft
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
2240 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2011 :  22:48:29  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan

quote:

It just amazes me how professional scouts can watch players like R.Getzlaf and C.Perry....with their size to boot....and not have them as front runners in the draft.



I think you're forgetting how deep that 2003 draft year was duke. I mean honestly, look at the first round - its pretty hard to argue with the worth of most of those players. On draft day, when you know nothing that you know now, who's to say one won't be better than the other? Already, 6 of them have won Stanley Cups, and another 7 have played in Stanley Cup finals. Nearly everyone in the first round was a quality pick

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_NHL_Entry_Draft




yeah if you're the Rangers after the you feel pretty silly in the 2003 draft most became impact palyers in the NHL and even those who didn't they at least became like the Andrei Kostisyn solid top 6 players ,, how many players in the first round of 2003 didn;;t go on to become NHL regulars,,, the guy the Rangers drafted is the only one i can think of,,

"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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Guest4312
( )

Posted - 06/21/2011 :  07:24:48  Reply with Quote
just a correction for beans those defense in '08 were not 1-4 as stamkos was taken first overall that year
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8154 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2011 :  07:43:13  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4312

just a correction for beans those defense in '08 were not 1-4 as stamkos was taken first overall that year



Yep, my bad. They went 2-5.

And to Duke, that 2003 draft was really deep. Take a look below for the list of players from the first round (in order). Secondly, Getzlaf was not a PPG player in the Dub, so he was not as highly touted as others. Perry too. It wasn't until after we was drafted they he really broke out. If I recall, it started with him playing with Crosby at the WJ's.

If a player like Ryan Kesler is take 23rd, you know that is a deep draft.

Marc-Andre Fleury
Eric Staal
Nathan Horton
Nikolai Zherdev
Thomas Vanek
Milan Michalek
Ryan Suter
Braydon Coburn
Dion Phaneuf
Andrei Kostitsyn
Jeff Carter
Hugh Jessiman
Dustin Brown
Brent Seabrook
Robert Nilsson
Steve Bernier
Zach Parise
Eric Fehr
Ryan Getzlaf
Brent Burns
Mark Stuart
Marc-Antoine Pouliot
Ryan Kesler
Mike Richards
Anthony Stewart
Brian Boyle
Jeff Tambellini
Corey Perry
Patrick Eaves
Shawn Belle
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4517 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2011 :  08:56:26  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Beans, this is what I meant, list the three players taken RIGHT AFTER the defenceman picked in the top 5. It is a crapshoot, as you will see.

2000
1) DiPietro (G)
2) Heatley
3) Gaborik
4) Klesla (D)
5) Torres
6) Hartnell
7) Jonsson (D)
. . .
13) Hainsey (D)
18) Orpik (D)
29) Kronwall (D)
33) Schultz (D)
40) Foster (D)
62) Martin (D)
118) Visnovsky (D)
159) Liles (D)

2001 - no defence taken in top 5
1) Kovalchuk
2) Spezza
3) Svitov
4) Weiss
5) Chistov
. . .
7) Komisarek (D)
12) Hamhuis (D)
106) Ehrhoff (D)
241) Jurcina (D)

2002
1) Nash
2) Lehtonen (G)
3) Bouwmeester (D)
4) Pitkanen (D)

5) Whitney (D)
6) Upshall
7) Lupul
8 P.M. Bouchard
. . .
54) Duncan Keith (D)

2003 - no defence taken top 5
1) Fleury (G)
2) E.Staal
3) Horton
4) Zherdev
5) Vanek
. . .
9) Phaneuf (D)
20) Burns (D)
49) Weber (D)
239) Enstrom (D)
245) Byfuglien (D)

2004
1) Ovechkin
2) Malkin
3) Barker (D)
4) Ladd
5) B.Wheeler
6) Montoya (G)
. . .
23) Meszaros (D)
29) M. Green (D)
61) Goligoski (D)
91) Edler (D)
224) Hunwick (D)
227) Campoli (D)

I also added the d-men of note that I could find, so you got an idea of how one could cherry-pick the other way.

It's all quite a crapshoot. At this point, going back in time and knowing what I know now from this list . . . my Leafers could have had a blueline of Visnovsky, Liles, Goligoski, Edler, Byfuglien, Keith, and Ehrhoff.

Could have also had goalie Lundqvist in round 7 of the 2000 draft. Yikes.

My point is, at the time, what players are rated is how they get picked, and just as many great d-men get picked late as forwards (relatively speaking, obviously more forwards get picked as there are more positions open for them). And yes, many d-men in the top 5 are misses, just like the forwards.

But that certainly does not make it a mistake to take a defenceman in the top 5 . . . the only thing with it is, it may take longer for that player to develop.

I think all teams pick the next best rated player, period - defenceman, goalie or forward.



"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8154 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2011 :  09:16:57  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I absolutely agree Slozo. Maybe my point was not clearly articulated. The point I was intending to say was all things being equal, I would take a forward before a defensemen in almost every case because of the development factor. I think we can all bring up one off situations of draft picks that tanked. However, I think most of us can agree is that you know sooner if a forward will be a bust than a defender. Also, that development piece is key. If you can find a away to have other teams develop defensemen, why not?? Relating to another thread, Detroit has made a living off of doing just this. With the exception of Lidstrom and Kronwall, there have been very few defensemen on that squad that were actually drafted and developed by Detroit.

Hopefully this makes a little more sense. I would take a forward over a defensemen in most cases based on the length of time it takes to develop a defender.
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1028 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2011 :  19:12:23  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Pretty impressive list of players from the 2003 draft for sure.
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
2240 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2011 :  21:36:49  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
the habs should be targeting Brandon Saad or Tyler Biggs ,, two big guys with offensive upside, Biggs is known to be the most agressive physical player and lets face it the habs need the size

"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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Kirby
Top Prospect



Canada
66 Posts

Posted - 06/22/2011 :  00:48:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Pasty7

quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan

quote:

It just amazes me how professional scouts can watch players like R.Getzlaf and C.Perry....with their size to boot....and not have them as front runners in the draft.



I think you're forgetting how deep that 2003 draft year was duke. I mean honestly, look at the first round - its pretty hard to argue with the worth of most of those players. On draft day, when you know nothing that you know now, who's to say one won't be better than the other? Already, 6 of them have won Stanley Cups, and another 7 have played in Stanley Cup finals. Nearly everyone in the first round was a quality pick

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_NHL_Entry_Draft




yeah if you're the Rangers after the you feel pretty silly in the 2003 draft most became impact palyers in the NHL and even those who didn't they at least became like the Andrei Kostisyn solid top 6 players ,, how many players in the first round of 2003 didn;;t go on to become NHL regulars,,, the guy the Rangers drafted is the only one i can think of,,

"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker




Nilsson is no longer in the NHL, and when he was he wasn't a very good regular. On a side note, it hurts to see the Oilers traded the 14th overall pick that ended up being Parise

A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be. -Wayne Gretzky
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