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Guest4377
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 Posted - 03/01/2012 : 21:40:33
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Resubmitted with an edit...
Well, talk about picking and choosing a piece of an article to support your opinion!
How about the fact that according to the power rankings as stated in the article, Karlsson is currently considered the leading candidate for the Norris right now?
How about Datsyuk winning the Selke in past years despite lack of penalty kill minutes?
Sure, Erik Karlsson has flaws. What player doesn't?
If you asked most people to name the top 5 NHL defensemen in the NHL right now, Erik Karlsson is probably on their list. (He may not have been earlier in the season, but he must be now.)
And most people's list of the top 5 defensemen would probably include Weber, Suter, Chara and Campbell, in addition to Karlsson. (Dan Girardi and Nick Lidstrom would also be good considerations too.)
All named defensemen (aside from Karlsson) have from 21 - 43 points, a fraction of the points Karlsson has posted so far this season. (He currently has 66 points in 64 games.)
When looking at the all-important factor of penalty kill time, Campbell (as noted) is way down the list of NHL defensemen. Interestingly, Suter and Weber rank around 60th overall, and neither player even leads his own team in penalty kill minutes! (Hal Gill has almost twice as many penalty kill minutes as Suter or Weber.)
When looking at Brian Campbell, his team (Florida Panthers) primarily uses Mike Weaver and Jason Garrison on the penalty kill, both who have 2-3 times as many penalty kill minutes as Campbell.
And while Chara leads his team in penalty kill minutes, he ranks around 40th in penalty kill minutes per game. So once again, I'm not sure how big important a factor this is in determining who is the best defenseman?
Lidstrom is currently logging less than 2 minutes per game on the penalty kill, and while Giradi logs decent penalty kill minutes, he currently ranks 85th in power play minutes. (He's 3rd in power play minutes for defensemen on his own team!)
By the way, Campbell and Karlsson rank higher that the other five named defensemen in the category of average power play minutes per game. Time spent on the power play must surely be as valuable as time spent on the penalty kill!
I still maintain that every minute a player plays is valuable. Whether it's power play time, penalty kill time, or even strength time, a player's time on the ice is valuable. And it's important to note that some team's use certain specialists on the power play or the penalty kill. That's why they call them "special teams."
You can knock Karlsson's lack of penalty kill minutes all you want, but he's still one of the top defensemen in the NHL. And if you want to knock Karlsson, you can find blemishes with all other top NHL defensemen. Or any player for that matter!
But unless Karlsson's production disappears the last 16 games of the season, I would be shocked to see his name off the Norris ballot!
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/01/2012 : 21:54:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest4377
Resubmitted with an edit...
Well, talk about picking and choosing a piece of an article to support your opinion!
How about the fact that according to the power rankings as stated in the article, Karlsson is currently considered the leading candidate for the Norris right now?
I didn't say the article supported my opinion, nor does it actually - there is very little mention of PK time in it, save the link to the hfboards discussion - which also does not necessarily support my argument. That doesn't stop it from being interesting.
There was a comment in the hfboards discussion about Denis Potvin agreeing with me, which was nice to see. |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 03/01/2012 : 21:56:19
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4377.....please feel free to sign up on PUH. That way you can edit your posts! I don't even know what you editted there as it was so long i didn't wanna read the entire thing again!!!
I'm not sure if nuxfan is disagreeing at this point that Karlsson is a top 5 dman? However, some might still argue that point depending on how you judge your top 5. For ex, if i were able to choose 1 guy to add to the Canucks for the playoffs, i'd take Lidstrom over Karlsson any day of the week! However, if i was able to choose 1 guy to add to the Canucks permanently, i'd pick Karlsson due to his age alone!
I do think Karlsson is top 5 this year for sure, prob top 3. His huge lead in pts amongst dmen is absolutely sick! That alone puts him up their in MVP's of dmen imo. I admittedly am going on points alone as i rarely get a chance to see the Sens play!
As far as anyone's top 5 dmen, i think you'd be hard pressed to find Campbell's name on a lot of them! He sure as heck wouldn't be on mine. He's having a fine season, but def not in my top 5. |
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Guest4377
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Posted - 03/01/2012 : 22:15:51
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Thanks Alex - I plan to sign up. As it relates to including Campbell's name as a potential finalist, I only did so because Nuxfan had earlier included Campbell as one of his top three NHL defensemen this season.
As for the edit, my original posting excluded "Selke," in the sentence about Datsyuk.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 03/01/2012 : 22:22:26
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Ah, i see. I did see you missed Selke originally, but i knew what you meant!
Campbell certainly couldn't have had one of his better nights tonight losing 7-0 to Winnipeg!!! Not sure if you saw any of it, but i just saw highlites on sportsnet and Winnipeg actually had a 5 on 1. Not a word of a lie, a clear cut 5 on 1 from center in!!
Yes, they scored!  |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/01/2012 : 23:06:10
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quote:
Originally posted by Alex116
Ah, i see. I did see you missed Selke originally, but i knew what you meant!
Campbell certainly couldn't have had one of his better nights tonight losing 7-0 to Winnipeg!!! Not sure if you saw any of it, but i just saw highlites on sportsnet and Winnipeg actually had a 5 on 1. Not a word of a lie, a clear cut 5 on 1 from center in!!
Yes, they scored!
interestingly enough, Campbell was even on the night and played over 26 minutes - only one of 3 Panthers that was even. |
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deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2012 : 04:46:11
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest4377
Resubmitted with an edit...
Well, talk about picking and choosing a piece of an article to support your opinion!
How about the fact that according to the power rankings as stated in the article, Karlsson is currently considered the leading candidate for the Norris right now?
How about Datsyuk winning the Selke in past years despite lack of penalty kill minutes?
Sure, Erik Karlsson has flaws. What player doesn't?
If you asked most people to name the top 5 NHL defensemen in the NHL right now, Erik Karlsson is probably on their list. (He may not have been earlier in the season, but he must be now.)
And most people's list of the top 5 defensemen would probably include Weber, Suter, Chara and Campbell, in addition to Karlsson. (Dan Girardi and Nick Lidstrom would also be good considerations too.)
All named defensemen (aside from Karlsson) have from 21 - 43 points, a fraction of the points Karlsson has posted so far this season. (He currently has 66 points in 64 games.)
When looking at the all-important factor of penalty kill time, Campbell (as noted) is way down the list of NHL defensemen. Interestingly, Suter and Weber rank around 60th overall, and neither player even leads his own team in penalty kill minutes! (Hal Gill has almost twice as many penalty kill minutes as Suter or Weber.)
When looking at Brian Campbell, his team (Florida Panthers) primarily uses Mike Weaver and Jason Garrison on the penalty kill, both who have 2-3 times as many penalty kill minutes as Campbell.
And while Chara leads his team in penalty kill minutes, he ranks around 40th in penalty kill minutes per game. So once again, I'm not sure how big important a factor this is in determining who is the best defenseman?
Lidstrom is currently logging less than 2 minutes per game on the penalty kill, and while Giradi logs decent penalty kill minutes, he currently ranks 85th in power play minutes. (He's 3rd in power play minutes for defensemen on his own team!)
By the way, Campbell and Karlsson rank higher that the other five named defensemen in the category of average power play minutes per game. Time spent on the power play must surely be as valuable as time spent on the penalty kill!
I still maintain that every minute a player plays is valuable. Whether it's power play time, penalty kill time, or even strength time, a player's time on the ice is valuable. And it's important to note that some team's use certain specialists on the power play or the penalty kill. That's why they call them "special teams."
You can knock Karlsson's lack of penalty kill minutes all you want, but he's still one of the top defensemen in the NHL. And if you want to knock Karlsson, you can find blemishes with all other top NHL defensemen. Or any player for that matter!
But unless Karlsson's production disappears the last 16 games of the season, I would be shocked to see his name off the Norris ballot!
I'll second Alex's call for you to sign up, nicely said guest.
And I agree with you 100% on all your points . . . being tops in one of those specialist categories often helps, but not being one shouldn't hinder you that much.
The funny thing you made me think about, is how we as "hockey pucks" give credence and respect to the defencemen who put in significant penalty kill time . . . and yet, we often slag defencemen who are very successful on the power play, as if it is an automatic that whoever gets put on a pp will instantly rack up points. I think people often wrongly think that it inflates numbers only . . . rather than keeping it in perspective by noting that the more a player is used on the power play, the greater the compliment to skill level for the player. And if that player rewards the coach by putting up great pp numbers . . . that makes him a very effective player.
All I am saying is, the perception is of "soft points" for pp specialists, as if it is so easy and simple for every skilled defenceman to rack up points on the pp - when it isn't.
And conversely, we have a perception that everyone who plays on the pk is a defensive stalwart . . . and yet, I'd argue a guy like Suter - who as you pointed out gets less time on the pk than some teammates who are less skilled - is the best defensive presence on that team.
Sometimes it's about a player "specialising"; sometimes, it's about a coach managing time for the defenceman; sometimes, it's just aboput assigned roles and pairings.
In the end, I don't think we should use very strict barometers to measure the effectiveness of a defenceman. I will say this though: my candidate for Norris right now is, hands down, the RUNAWAY winner, Erik Karlsson.
He's an MVP candidate, IMHO . . . I say the Sens would be absolutely nowhere without him this year, where we all thought they would be - at the bottom.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Guest9084
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Posted - 03/02/2012 : 04:49:08
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Fantastic article about Karlsson, focusing on every facet of the ice as compared to previous years' "offensive defensemen", and this year's other Norris candidates...
It really goes to show how he's comparable or better in practically every category, even though I think the PHWA will snub him and give it to Weber. I find the QoT / QoC ratio particularly telling, compared to "defensive stalwarts" like Chara or Weber. It really shows just how effective Karlsson's been on both ends of the ice. As always, consider the source.
http://www.the6thsens.com/2012-articles/february/erik-karlssons-norris-case.html |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2012 : 10:14:40
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quote:
Originally posted by slozo
The funny thing you made me think about, is how we as "hockey pucks" give credence and respect to the defencemen who put in significant penalty kill time . . . and yet, we often slag defencemen who are very successful on the power play, as if it is an automatic that whoever gets put on a pp will instantly rack up points. I think people often wrongly think that it inflates numbers only . . . rather than keeping it in perspective by noting that the more a player is used on the power play, the greater the compliment to skill level for the player. And if that player rewards the coach by putting up great pp numbers . . . that makes him a very effective player.
All I am saying is, the perception is of "soft points" for pp specialists, as if it is so easy and simple for every skilled defenceman to rack up points on the pp - when it isn't.
And conversely, we have a perception that everyone who plays on the pk is a defensive stalwart . . . and yet, I'd argue a guy like Suter - who as you pointed out gets less time on the pk than some teammates who are less skilled - is the best defensive presence on that team.
Sometimes it's about a player "specialising"; sometimes, it's about a coach managing time for the defenceman; sometimes, it's just aboput assigned roles and pairings.
In the end, I don't think we should use very strict barometers to measure the effectiveness of a defenceman. I will say this though: my candidate for Norris right now is, hands down, the RUNAWAY winner, Erik Karlsson.
He's an MVP candidate, IMHO . . . I say the Sens would be absolutely nowhere without him this year, where we all thought they would be - at the bottom.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
Slozo, you do realize that Suter leads the (full season) Preds in PK time this season. I think Gil has been there for 5 games now, he got all his PK time from MTL - although he does still see significant time on the PK with NSH, which is probably why he was brought in. As far as NSH PK goes - one of Suter or Weber is on the ice during any penalty kill that NSH has to do, period. He is normally on the ice in any close situation, and any defensive end faceoff when the game is on the line. He plays over 26 min/game, in all situations, always against the top line of the opposing team, and manages to rack up a pretty good number of points in the meantime. In other words - he does it all very well, he is the complete defenseman - which is why he would be on my list of Norris candidates.
In regards to PP time, I think that most people diminish PP achievements for any player, forward or defense. Anytime someone succeeds when they have a definite advantage over the other side will always appear to be less of an achievement than succeeding when you are at a disadvantage or even - that's probably the case in life in general.
There are always going to be specialists, and those guys are worth their weight for sure. But to be able to do everything very well is something else entirely. Its why the Norris trophy is for the best "all around defenseman". Its why the Selke honours the defensive forward - all forwards are offensive in nature, but it takes something else to get it done offensively while still being able to play at a high defensive level, and as such that achievement is singled out. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2012 : 10:40:44
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quote:
How about Datsyuk winning the Selke in past years despite lack of penalty kill minutes?
<offtopic>
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/683601-why-pavel-datsyuk-shouldnt-be-a-finalist-for-the-selke-trophy-this-year
this article was written after last year's finalists were announced, and goes into some history of the Selke trophy and how it has evolved over time. It pays a fair amount of attention to Datsyuk, and essentially comes to the conclusion that he was so deserving of the award in his first year (in all aspects, including PK time where he was over 1:30 per game), that his reputation alone might have carried him to another 2 awards after that. He was a finalist last year, however rightly lost out to Kesler, and it wasn't even close. Datsyuk only marginally beat out Patrice Bergeron to even make it to the finalist list.
If you do a google search for "datsyuk deserving selke", you'll find more than a few articles questioning whether or not he deserves to be a perennial finalist for this award, and many of them point to his lack of PK time as the reason. The Selke trophy is one of the more obscure ones though (who cares about an award that emphasizes defense?), and perhaps a lot of hockey writers don't look into that aspect of the game much. Datsyuk is a "safe bet", so he gets votes.
IMO, in retrospect he did not deserve to be a finalist last year given his stats and the fact that he missed a lot of time due to injury, there were other forwards that were more deserving. However, he has such a pervasive reputation that he'll still get on the ballot, even if some aspects of his game are missing - I think last year I assumed that he would make the ballot for sure, because well, he's Pavel Datsyuk! Perhaps with last year's loss, we'll see a changing of the guard in respect to finalists going forward.
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Edited by - nuxfan on 03/02/2012 10:41:04 |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2012 : 12:10:05
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| Whether or not he continues to be a finalist will indeed be interesting. Funny thing is, if they ever voted the Hart trophy the way it's defined, this guy could be on that one virtually every year. He is simply that good and that important to the Red Wings!!! It's hard to believe he was almost traded for Scott Gomez!! |
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Guest4178
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Posted - 03/02/2012 : 12:45:52
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Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and you can support your argument with stats, articles, etc., but let's see who's name appears on the Norris ballot.
If you like articles (and more opinions on Erik Karlsson), here's one worth reading: http://deanbrownblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/give-kid-his-due.html
The article makes mention that professional hockey writers select the trophy nominees and eventually vote in the winners, which most fans know already.
I hate to admit that professional hockey writers have a more informed opinion than me as a fan, but they make their living watching and paying attention to the game, and they get the opportunity to talk to players, coaches, gm's, etc. from around the league to form their opinions. (By the way, I don't mean that fans' opinions don't matter, but arguably some people know more about what they're talking about than others.)
I think the opinion of the hockey writers will be the same as mine on this one though. Karlsson's name will appear on the Norris ballot, and while I may not have said so two months ago, I think Karlsson is easily one of the top three defensemen in the NHL right now.
But if the hockey writers disagree with me, I will probably say "What do they know about hockey anyway! They just go to games for the free food," or "what do Western writers know about Karlsson. That's why they went with Weber, Suter, or Lidstrom instead." :) |
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deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 03/03/2012 : 07:03:12
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quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan
Slozo, you do realize that Suter leads the (full season) Preds in PK time this season. I think Gil has been there for 5 games now, he got all his PK time from MTL - although he does still see significant time on the PK with NSH, which is probably why he was brought in. As far as NSH PK goes - one of Suter or Weber is on the ice during any penalty kill that NSH has to do, period. He is normally on the ice in any close situation, and any defensive end faceoff when the game is on the line. He plays over 26 min/game, in all situations, always against the top line of the opposing team, and manages to rack up a pretty good number of points in the meantime. In other words - he does it all very well, he is the complete defenseman - which is why he would be on my list of Norris candidates.
In regards to PP time, I think that most people diminish PP achievements for any player, forward or defense. Anytime someone succeeds when they have a definite advantage over the other side will always appear to be less of an achievement than succeeding when you are at a disadvantage or even - that's probably the case in life in general.
There are always going to be specialists, and those guys are worth their weight for sure. But to be able to do everything very well is something else entirely. Its why the Norris trophy is for the best "all around defenseman". Its why the Selke honours the defensive forward - all forwards are offensive in nature, but it takes something else to get it done offensively while still being able to play at a high defensive level, and as such that achievement is singled out.
No, did not realise that about Suter - just went by what some guy said here without thinking about it, of course that makes sense.
But to your point about doing everything "very well" . . . that can make you a very good, extremely useful defenceman, sure - one of the best. But to actually be FAR AND AWAY THE BEST at any one of the huge parts of being a defenceman, while still being good to very good at the other things - this has to put you one rung above, IMHO.
Karlsson is on a team that, prior to the season, was looked at as a squad that would have trouble scoring. But his stats, compared to all other defencemen in the league, are frankly shocking. The gap between him and the rest is becoming . . . a chasm.
Karlsson so far:
15g (1st in the league) - next best is Shea Weber with 14
51 assists (1st in the league) - next best is Brian Campbell with 39
66 points (1st in the league) - next best is Campbell with 43
He is more than 20 points ahead of the next best defenceman . . . and he tied for 6th in points overall. He has an excellent shot at topping Mike Green's 76 point total of a couple of years ago . . . while having a much greater distance between him and the rest of the pack.
And he is no slouch physically, either, despite not being a very big guy.
No, to me, you must weight some factors, and if winning them by such an extent as Karlsson is . . . you have to give it even more weight.
The kid should win the Norris easily this year, in this poster's humble opinion. And remember, this is coming from a Leaf fan!
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 03/03/2012 : 08:38:17
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If not for Green losing a few years back in his big season, i would prob think it's Karlsson's for sure. That one shocked a few people, so might this one. I still think that reputation / time gets guys a lot of votes and while he may win it one day, i'm not sure it's this year. Even one of the articles that someone linked here mentioned as such. That's the #1 reason i think Weber wins this year as i think there's more than a few writers who voted Lidstrom last year thinking it may just be his last one!
If Karlsson wins it, i won't be disappointed nor will i be surprised, but i'm betting on Shea Weber.
BTW, for all of Ottawa's success, let's not be too quick to hand over all the credit to Karlsson. Their goaltending has been surprisingly solid, Spezza has had a major comeback year and even Michalek was responsible for a few of those wins with his hot first half! The whole team has played FAR beyond expectations! |
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Clatts
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
266 Posts |
Posted - 03/03/2012 : 21:21:20
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Don't confuse +/- with a defensive stat because it is not. He is a plus every time he is on the ice for an ESG. For that reason, and the fact that he has 40 ESG himself, +15 is not that impressive at all!
Low points and a high +/- is normally an indication of better defensive play.
High points and a high +/- is more linely an indication of better offensive play.
What is ESG?
"Most of the guys that wear them are Europeans and French Guys."
Don Cherry on Visors |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/03/2012 : 23:19:38
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quote:
Originally posted by Clatts
What is ESG?
"Most of the guys that wear them are Europeans and French Guys."
Don Cherry on Visors
even strength goal |
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Open_Ice
Rookie
Canada
109 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2012 : 13:57:31
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Do Weber and Sutter play together? That means they are 'helping' eachother's defensive numbers. Karlsson is putting up solid offensive and defensive numbers playing with... Kuba?
No question Karlsson deserves to win in my opinion. |
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deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 03/13/2012 : 08:54:17
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UPDATE on Karlsson:
Now 4 goals better than the next best player . . . and 11 assists more than the next best player . . . and now an incredible 25 POINTS BETTER than the next best defenceman in terms of points.
Let's put that into perspective:
The gap between Brian Campbell at #2 and Karlsson at #1 (in terms of points) would equal . . . the 42nd best d-man in the league for points (equal to guys like Meszaros, Bouwmeester - pretty decent guys offensively).
He's now on pace to shatter Green's mark of . . . 76 points two years ago, except that in Karlsson's case, it's going to be WAY more than a 7 point gap.
Karlsson is now 7th in scoring overall: 69 points, +15, ppg pace. He's got 2 less points than Ilya Kovalchuk, who is likely a strong contender for the MVP award this year, if that gives you even more perspective.
I really hope that he gets his due. He deserves it. In a league with such parity throughout . . . for someone to be so far ahead in every offensive category is extremely impressive to me.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 03/13/2012 : 12:27:20
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Yeah, but can he kill penalties? 
All kidding aside, it sure has been a phenomenal year for him. While Visnovsky (last year) and Green a few years back couldn't win the Norris with offense, the gap Karlsson's created may just be too big to be ignored by the voters! |
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Odin
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
350 Posts |
Posted - 03/14/2012 : 09:39:43
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Don't confuse +/- with a defensive stat because it is not. He is a plus every time he is on the ice for an ESG. For that reason, and the fact that he has 40 ESG himself, +15 is not that impressive at all!
Low points and a high +/- is normally an indication of better defensive play.
High points and a high +/- is more linely an indication of better offensive play.
I'm glad the other poster asked about this, because I missed it. Karlsson has 40 ESG's?? I don't think so. If that was the case, he would be a shoe-in for the award.
Also, if +\- isn't a defensive stat, what is? I suppose blocked shots could be. I have seen sports jounalists all the time using this stat, +\- as exactly that, a defensive stat. Now, Beans, I am not saying its black and white, most things in life are not. You make a valid point about some of the 'luck' involved with this stat. I have made such points myself. But it IS an indication of defensive prowess. We all know that loosey-goosey players tend to have bad +/_.
As far as Karlsson winning, he should hands down. But as another poster said, the only thing that could beat him is another d-mans rep.
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Guest6002
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Posted - 03/14/2012 : 09:41:06
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| I'm not sure if this was mentioned but I was watching an Ottawa game a few weeks back and the announcers had brought up the fact that Karlsson actually leads the league in takeaways which is perenially done by Datsyuk. Karlsson takes a lot of flack for his defensive play but from what I've seen this year he has improved vastly and I wonder if that stat alone would be considered in his nomination for the Norris. In my opinion if Karlsson breaks the 80 point plateau and finishes with at least 20 goals I believe he should win the Norris. |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/14/2012 : 13:33:30
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quote:
Originally posted by Odin
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Don't confuse +/- with a defensive stat because it is not. He is a plus every time he is on the ice for an ESG. For that reason, and the fact that he has 40 ESG himself, +15 is not that impressive at all!
Low points and a high +/- is normally an indication of better defensive play.
High points and a high +/- is more linely an indication of better offensive play.
I'm glad the other poster asked about this, because I missed it. Karlsson has 40 ESG's?? I don't think so. If that was the case, he would be a shoe-in for the award.
Also, if +\- isn't a defensive stat, what is? I suppose blocked shots could be. I have seen sports jounalists all the time using this stat, +\- as exactly that, a defensive stat. Now, Beans, I am not saying its black and white, most things in life are not. You make a valid point about some of the 'luck' involved with this stat. I have made such points myself. But it IS an indication of defensive prowess. We all know that loosey-goosey players tend to have bad +/_.
As far as Karlsson winning, he should hands down. But as another poster said, the only thing that could beat him is another d-mans rep.
Sorry for the error. It was not 40 ESG, it was 40 ES points. My bad.
And +/- is still not a defensive stat. Here is the deal:
Let's compare a few players who have similar +/-:
Karlsson as 69 pts and is +15.
Bryce Salvador has 7 pts and is +15.
I bet it would take much to figure out which of those players is know for their defensive prowess and which is known as an offensive juggernaut.
+/- is not a stat that measure defense or offensive exclusively. Not in the least. |
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Guest4220
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Posted - 03/14/2012 : 20:30:18
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Well I'm not sure if it happens every game but if Kuba plays with Karlsson for a good chunk of the season then the +15 is even more impressive. Wow does Kuba suck!! He was beaten to the puck every single time and the gets himself and his team trapped in their own zone more than I could keep track off.
OK Sens fans tell me does Kuba suck that much or is this an anomaly because right now Karlsson should be +100 if Kuba wasn't his partner. So is it Karlsson that is a defensive sieve or is it Kuba that is making Karlsson look bad? |
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Guest9084
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Posted - 03/15/2012 : 05:17:24
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| Most sens fans wanted Kuba traded at the start of the year because he sucks... I'll admit that he improved to "passable" this year. |
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4809 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 05:42:05
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quote:
Originally posted by Odin
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Don't confuse +/- with a defensive stat because it is not. He is a plus every time he is on the ice for an ESG. For that reason, and the fact that he has 40 ESG himself, +15 is not that impressive at all!
Low points and a high +/- is normally an indication of better defensive play.
High points and a high +/- is more linely an indication of better offensive play.
I'm glad the other poster asked about this, because I missed it. Karlsson has 40 ESG's?? I don't think so. If that was the case, he would be a shoe-in for the award.
Also, if +\- isn't a defensive stat, what is? I suppose blocked shots could be. I have seen sports jounalists all the time using this stat, +\- as exactly that, a defensive stat. Now, Beans, I am not saying its black and white, most things in life are not. You make a valid point about some of the 'luck' involved with this stat. I have made such points myself. But it IS an indication of defensive prowess. We all know that loosey-goosey players tend to have bad +/_.
As far as Karlsson winning, he should hands down. But as another poster said, the only thing that could beat him is another d-mans rep.
Odin agrees with me that Karlsson should win the Norris . . . hold on a sec here . . . Odin AGREED with me on a subject?!?
Are the endtimes really that near? 
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 06:17:41
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
quote:
Originally posted by Odin
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Don't confuse +/- with a defensive stat because it is not. He is a plus every time he is on the ice for an ESG. For that reason, and the fact that he has 40 ESG himself, +15 is not that impressive at all!
Low points and a high +/- is normally an indication of better defensive play.
High points and a high +/- is more linely an indication of better offensive play.
I'm glad the other poster asked about this, because I missed it. Karlsson has 40 ESG's?? I don't think so. If that was the case, he would be a shoe-in for the award.
Also, if +\- isn't a defensive stat, what is? I suppose blocked shots could be. I have seen sports jounalists all the time using this stat, +\- as exactly that, a defensive stat. Now, Beans, I am not saying its black and white, most things in life are not. You make a valid point about some of the 'luck' involved with this stat. I have made such points myself. But it IS an indication of defensive prowess. We all know that loosey-goosey players tend to have bad +/_.
As far as Karlsson winning, he should hands down. But as another poster said, the only thing that could beat him is another d-mans rep.
Sorry for the error. It was not 40 ESG, it was 40 ES points. My bad.
And +/- is still not a defensive stat. Here is the deal:
Let's compare a few players who have similar +/-:
Karlsson as 69 pts and is +15.
Bryce Salvador has 7 pts and is +15.
I bet it would take much to figure out which of those players is know for their defensive prowess and which is known as an offensive juggernaut.
+/- is not a stat that measure defense or offensive exclusively. Not in the least.
And I'll bring on the endtimes further here by agreeing with Odin:
Beans, +/- has SO been used as a defensive stat.
Do we really need to call you on this, or are you just gonna admit it finally? How many times have we argued and gone over your great love of Datsyuk and his takeaways and his +/-? You have tempered your opinion in the past (as most of us have) that it's just a stat that is an indicator of defensive strength . . . but, you have talked about it and agreed with me even on that.
Especially so, when taken into context and having a player's +/- put beside how much even strength time they play, who they play with (and what their +/- is) and most importantly, what the goal differential is for the team.
Karlsson is now a +15, and has an average Even Strength Time On Ice Per Game of 20:50 - 5th in the league, in fact.
Conversely, the Sens are a team with a +9 goal differential (wow, that's really improved since last time I checked)
So, Karlsson plays basically close to half the game even strength, with what we would all consider to be a very average to below average defensive partner, and he is putting up a point a game while having a better +/- than the team when he is on the ice.
So all that is on top of him being 11th in the league in power play time on ice, while being 2nd in power play points (3g, 24a, 27 pts) behind Giroux and tied with Malkin.
Yeah, I'd say that's pretty solid defensively 
I might even say that is quite stellar, in fact.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 10:27:00
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I said in this and every other conversation about +/-.
+/- is not a stat that measure defense or offensive exclusively.
So, thanks for proving my point by having to qualify the +/- rating of Karlsson by using no fewer than 5 other statistical measures.
I'm not sure how to say this any more clearly. Unlike other stats such as goals and assist that measure a players offensive abilities or save percentage and GAA measure a goalies skills, +/- is not an automatic reflection of defensive abilities. It show a player has a high ratio of being on the ice during goals for vs goal against. However, it does not explain why. It could be based on being on the ice during a lot of goals like in Karlsson's case or not allowing goals while on the ice in situations like Adam McQuiad.
You can not say that every player with a great +/- is a great defensive player. Wayne Gretzky was never confused with being on of the best defensive players in hockey yet he has one of the best +/- in NHL history. Conversely, Guy Carbonneau is known to be one of the best defensive forwards in NHL history and his +/- was only slightly above average.
If +/- was a direct stat, one could say that Wayne Gretzky was a better defensive player than Guy Carbonneau. But how many people in their right minds would agree to that statement??
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 11:09:32
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Here is a little something to chew on:
Erik Karlsson as been on the ice for 73 goals against, only 5 of those being PK goals. He has been on the ice for 120 goals for, 37 were PP goals. That means 83 goal for-68 goals against. +15 (By the way, he leads Ottawa defensemen for being on the ice for the most goals against and the fewest PP goals against)
Adam McQuiad has been on the ice for 33 goals against, only 7 on the PK. He has been on the ice for 40 goals for, 0 on the PP. That means 40 goals for, 26 goals against. +14.
Who is the better defensive players??? Both have the same +/- stat but one has on the ice for literally 1/2 the number of goals against. |
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Guest5052
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Posted - 03/15/2012 : 12:17:30
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I have to agree that I have never really found +/- to be that indicative of a stat in terms of defensive capability. As was pointed out, if your line out runs and guns the other team, then your +/- may be good, but you cant really say its a result of good defenisve play.
... having said that, I do think that sometimes there is too much of an emphasis on measuring the sum of the parts vs the whole. In other words, in Karlsson's case, even if he isnt the best defensive defenceman (and he is indeed getting a lot more attention of late for that part of his game) the fact that he dominates shifts when out there can mean he is the best player this year that lines up on defence.
People tried to argue that Messier was a better all round player than Gretzky and indeed there is some logic to that, but plain and simple Gretzky even if a one trick pony (interms of being a skilled offensive guy) was much the better player.
This is not to say that we should ignore a players all round game, but rather its less important what makes them stand out/dominate/effect the game than the extent to which they do. |
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Guest5091
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Posted - 03/15/2012 : 13:17:14
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Not my gif but I just had to post it...
[img]http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m0wjwguRbL1qmazcxo1_400.gif[/img] |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 13:31:40
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest5091
Not my gif but I just had to post it...
[img]http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m0wjwguRbL1qmazcxo1_400.gif[/img]
Please tell me he got a holding or interference penalty for that!!!
BTW, didn't realize till now just how small Karlsson is? Yahoo and Wikipedia list him at 5'11" and only 175 lbs? HockeyDB has him at 5'11" only 165 lbs and NHL.com has him at 6' / 180 lbs. Don't know why, but i always thought he was bigger than that! |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 14:23:31
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quote:
This is not to say that we should ignore a players all round game, but rather its less important what makes them stand out/dominate/effect the game than the extent to which they do.
Unless you're considering the player for the award for best "all around" defenseman, ie, the Norris trophy. In which case, the "all round game" should be pretty important. |
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Guest4178
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Posted - 03/15/2012 : 14:42:14
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I still maintain that Karlsson's name will be on the Norris ballot. Will he win? I wouldn't rule him out, but if he does win the Norris, he will be the youngest defenseman to win the award since Bobby Orr won his first of eight consecutive Norris Trophies at the age of 20!
Karlsson is only 21 years old, so for him to even get his name on the ballot says a lot! And if he does win, it will be an amazing feat for such a young defenseman! (Defensemen usually take longer to mature as hockey players.)
In the past 25 years, the youngest player to win the Norris was Brian Leetch, who won his first of two Norris trophies when he was only 24 years old.
For the most part, the Norris winners have been in their late 20's or early 30's. Nick Lidstrom didn't win the Norris until he was 31 years old, and picked up his seventh last season at 41 years of age.
Regardless of whether or not Karlsson wins the Norris, he's having a great season, and it's hard to argue that he's not one of the top defensemen in the NHL right now.
Even if his name is off the Norris ballot (unlikely), most fans would agree that at the very least, he's one of the top five defensemen in the league! And to be top five at any position as an NHL player (defenseman, forward or goalie) is an elite category to be in! |
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Guest9894
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Posted - 03/15/2012 : 21:32:04
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quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan
Unless you're considering the player for the award for best "all around" defenseman, ie, the Norris trophy. In which case, the "all round game" should be pretty important.
Karlsson is not the best defensive defensemen. But he is not Souray or MA Bergeron either. He is average on defense. But he is out of this world talented on the offensive side.
Whereas Weber and Chara, probably other possible candidates are both above average defenders and offensive output.
What is the measurement for defensive defensemen? Would it be fair to say something like in comparison to what Karlsson is doing on the offensive side Chara and Weber would have to block 50% more shots than the next best defensemen but only produce say 35-40 points (I'm guessing it is the average points for a defensemen in the league - feel free to adjust the number)? When you say all round defensemen there just is no easy measure for a defensive stat in comparison. When you come up with one, just imagine if Chara or Weber leading the pack so much that no one is close to them, because that is the equivalent of what Karlsson is doing on the offensive side yet being merely average on the defensive side. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 23:05:02
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest9894
Karlsson is not the best defensive defensemen. But he is not Souray or MA Bergeron either. He is average on defense. But he is out of this world talented on the offensive side.
Whereas Weber and Chara, probably other possible candidates are both above average defenders and offensive output.
What is the measurement for defensive defensemen? Would it be fair to say something like in comparison to what Karlsson is doing on the offensive side Chara and Weber would have to block 50% more shots than the next best defensemen but only produce say 35-40 points (I'm guessing it is the average points for a defensemen in the league - feel free to adjust the number)? When you say all round defensemen there just is no easy measure for a defensive stat in comparison. When you come up with one, just imagine if Chara or Weber leading the pack so much that no one is close to them, because that is the equivalent of what Karlsson is doing on the offensive side yet being merely average on the defensive side.
First off, lets clear up defensive scoring numbers. I didn't take the time to figure out the average, however, the median defenseman in the NHL this year has scored 11 points so far. I would bet the average is not far off that mark for all defensemen in the NHL. Out of the top 180 active defensemen (each of 30 teams with 6 dmen), there are currently only 11 defenseman higher than 40 points, and only 18 at 35 or more. Yes, I realize that makes Karlsson's offensive numbers this year look even more astounding. But I'm going to assume that all 3 finalists are in the top 10 for NHL scoring by a defenseman, so they're all in the elite category for offensive output at their position.
What measures are used for the defensive aspects of the position? I'm not a voter, so I don't know exactly what they look for. Certainly points matter (I don't remember the last time a candidate was not in the top-15 for dman scoring), and I would think some other general stats like +/-, TOI (for each of ES, PK, PP). I would also think that Hits, blocked shots, giveaways and takeaways would be taken into consideration. After that I'm speculating, or possibly projecting my own criteria - for example, does the dman quarterback the PP and/or lead the PK? Do they regularly play against oppositions top lines? Are they on the ice for important defensive situations (PK, own-end faceoffs with the game on the line)? These are not captured in simple statistics.
For fun, I compiled a stats summary for Weber, Chara, Campbell, Suter, and Karlsson, with overall dman rankings (out of 288, the higher the better) for the stats above:
Karlsson:
- points: 1
- +/-: 16
- ES TOI: 5
- PP TOI: 12
- PK TOI: 206
- Hits: 132
- Blocked shots: 166
- giveaways: 283 (5th worst)
- takeaways: 1
Weber:
- points: 8
- +/-: 12
- ES TOI: 6
- PP TOI: 20
- PK TOI: 67
- Hits: 22
- Blocked shots: 40
- giveaways: 240 (40th worst)
- takeaways: 3
Suter:
- points: 10
- +/-: 18
- ES TOI: 7
- PP TOI: 13
- PK TOI: 60
- Hits: 179
- Blocked shots: 71
- giveaways: 210 (78th worst)
- takeaways: 19
Chara:
- points: 7
- +/-: 4
- ES TOI: 15
- PP TOI: 43
- PK TOI: 39
- Hits: 25
- Blocked shots: 117
- giveaways: 278 (10th worst)
- takeaways: 62
Campbell:
- points: 2
- +/-: 237
- ES TOI: 3
- PP TOI: 3
- PK TOI: 149
- Hits: 171
- Blocked shots: 74
- giveaways: 236 (52nd worst)
- takeaways: 26
Feel free to agree or disagree with the stat categories I've provided - I don't know if this is what the voters look at, or how much they weigh each category - you raise a good point, does Karlsson's massive lead in offensive output allow voters to overlook his low defensive category rankings? Looking at the rankings above, IMO Weber is the most consistent all around defenseman of the group across all categories.
There is no question that Karlsson is a talented offensive defenseman - he has easily set the bar for that position this year, and looks poised to do it again in coming years. He will almost certainly be on the ballot for the Norris this year (the NHL loves to reward offensive output where possible). However, his overall defensive game is lacking compared to other candidates, and I don't think that an award should be given for overall defensive capabilities on the back of strong scoring.
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Edited by - nuxfan on 03/15/2012 23:07:42 |
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Guest9084
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Posted - 03/16/2012 : 04:55:21
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| Your stats are skewed... Karlsson leads the league in takeaways by a defenseman, he doesn't have only 1. He currently has 58, which is 20% better than second place (Duncan Keith with 48). Chara only has 21. |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 08:04:47
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nuxfan....Where'd these numbers come from? I could be wrong, but i find it hard to believe that Suter has 179 hits and Weber has just 22 and Chara just 25? Is that even possible???
Not to mention the 1 takeaway for Karlsson that the guest pointed out. THAT, has to be impossible! Even Weber at 3 and Suter at just 19?
Please tell me something is wrong here? |
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Guest9894
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Posted - 03/16/2012 : 09:25:26
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest9084
Your stats are skewed... Karlsson leads the league in takeaways by a defenseman, he doesn't have only 1. He currently has 58, which is 20% better than second place (Duncan Keith with 48). Chara only has 21.
Umm if you read his post it says the numbers represent the ranking. So 1 in take away means he is #1 ranked and so on. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 09:29:50
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quote:
Umm if you read his post it says the numbers represent the ranking. So 1 in take away means he is #1 ranked and so on.
well I'm glad someone read clearly.
yes, these are rankings relative to all other dmen in the NHL. So if someone has a "1", that means they had the most of whatever category it is. For giveaways, I did a reverse - ie, Karlsson had the 5th most giveaways, therefore he ranks 283 (288 - 5) |
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Guest4178
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Posted - 03/16/2012 : 09:50:32
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Nuxfan – you seem to be trying to make a case against Karlsson being on the ballot – I'm not sure why?
But you also appear to be coming around to finally agree that his name will likely appear on the Norris ballot.
Here's what you stated early on: "When you look at other top ranked defensemen and perennial Norris candidates, you will see that they play in all situations, and in many cases are near the top of their team's respective PK minutes. It will work against Karlsson."
Do you still think your observations about Karlsson will work against him? Do you think the hockey writers (voters) will keep his name off the ballot? |
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Topic |
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Most Underrated: Erik Karlsson 
