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KingAnus3
Top Prospect



2 Posts

Posted - 08/31/2013 :  07:26:30  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Do you know any reliable online prediction lists? Thank you

JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1910 Posts

Posted - 09/03/2013 :  09:25:52  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
When it comes to predictions there is not a lot of great sources that are accurate. The one I am looking at seriously this year is the Vollman advanced stats. But that could be "confirmation biased", new statement for me for another topic here, as he has my team as a 32.2% lock for the president trophy. I understand his reasoning as he claims, if you take all the good and bad luck out of the game and look at the other stats, giving every team an equal amount of luck, what would have been there result instead of what actually happened. I like it and last year his picks were pretty accurate. I say Vollman is god, or demigod at least, if the Sen's achieve most of what he predicts. But as a long term Sen's fan, with a clear memory of how bad the luck can get in Ottawa, I expect his prediction to be off a little.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2013/08/04/advanced-stats-bode-well-for-sens/

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4607 Posts

Posted - 09/03/2013 :  11:35:46  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Wow, that's some crazy projection, putting the Sens at #1. I will eat my hat if that happens, seriously.

The problem is, I can see from the outset that he has used advanced stats that show how crazy unlucky the team was with injuries, and projected a huge upward boost from healthy bodies. Problem with that is - and there are hundreds of examples, but off the top of my head, look at the year when Crosby got put out and the Pens record afterward - it doesn't work like that. And that's not to say the Sens don't do better than last year if all their bodies remain much healthier - they would certainly be RATED much higher, for sure. With a healthy Spezza and Karlsson . . . and with Anderson playing the same way, and if Ryan seamlessly repeats his numbers . . . yeah, that team is right up in the top three, top 4 of the Eastern conference.

But sports rarely if ever works in this linear, predictable way . . . I have the Sens as fighting the Leafs for second in their new division, myself; I would be utterly shocked if they managed to not only win their division, but come atop the Eastern standings AND on top overall.



"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1910 Posts

Posted - 09/03/2013 :  15:50:04  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Did you read his projections for the Oilers. He had them way way down the list. This is against the grain thinking, taking puck luck out of the equasion, or at least giving all teams average puck luck. I have been the guy to try and feel what I believe will happen, based on coaching, roster and holes in the lineup, whereas his stats have a habit of happening. I will look back at this at the end of the year and see how close he came.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5810 Posts

Posted - 09/04/2013 :  17:04:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

Did you read his projections for the Oilers.


More importantly, did you read HIS (OP's) name? Where'd 1 and 2 go?
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4607 Posts

Posted - 09/05/2013 :  09:02:28  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

Did you read his projections for the Oilers. He had them way way down the list. This is against the grain thinking, taking puck luck out of the equasion, or at least giving all teams average puck luck. I have been the guy to try and feel what I believe will happen, based on coaching, roster and holes in the lineup, whereas his stats have a habit of happening. I will look back at this at the end of the year and see how close he came.

"I now realise that the Toronto Maple Leafs, Canada's finest hockey team, is better than the Ottawa Senators - and always will be. PS - LOVE that Dion Phaneuf! "



Hmm, well - that's all fair enough. Every year there are teams that perform well above (and below) expectations . . .

Myself, I have the Oilers way down the list too, so I will "agree" with him there!


"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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