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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5787 Posts

Posted - 10/22/2013 :  21:59:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Wow Crock, just WOW! I think you could have written that repetitive nonsense in about 1/4 of the words you used. I felt like a grade 8 English teacher reading an essay I requested of 500 words where a kid kept repeating the same crap over and over and over to get to his 500. Brutal.

I have to say, I love how you conveniently awaited a big game from Phil to submit this essay! I meant, were you sweating out the 2 straight pointless and 4 straight goalless games from Phil? Kinda backs up the "streaky" label someone once gave him actually.

What you fail to comprehend, is the argument against this contract has everything to do with things OTHER THAN scoring. No one is going to argue that Kessel doesn't put up goals and points. The opinion of some is that he doesn't bring enough of an all around game to warrant such a deal. I don't care who got more points than him really. I mean, are you saying he's better than Crosby because he's outpointed him? Are you saying he's more valuable than Tavares? No one is doubting he's a top 10 offensive player in the NHL, moreso they've argued his all around game isn't worth the salary he's getting.

You say Kessel's been a top 5 player the past 3 years? Well, FYI, he's been a top 5 offensive player only. Don't get the 2 confused. Lemme put it to you this way, with a simple question. Who would you rather have as a Leaf if you could only choose 1. Phil Kessel or Jonathan Toews? If you answer this the way most sane people would, you'll fully be able to comprehend the justification of the "anti-Kessel" side of this argument! If you answer incorrectly, well, the rest of us will be able to justify the value we choose to take from your posts.........
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1872 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2013 :  07:59:42  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I was like you Alex waiting for someone anyone to point out Kessel's big game. Thought about it last night when I looked at the stats and I am glad you responded to Crock first, mostly how I would have answered it. BTW, I just checked and I don't see Kessel in the top 5 for goals points or assists at the moment, but some in Crocks argument who are lessor players seem to be there. Currently 9th in points, 11th in goals and tied for 45th in assists. That being said, good game for Kessel, not taking anything away from his hatrick last night.

For those of us still comparing Sequin to Kessel he is 4 goals and 6 assists and only 1 point behind Kessel in 8 games (2 games less than Kessel's 5 goals and 6 assist in 10 games). If your gonna mastercard this snapshot Sequin might be the winner here, again.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4575 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2013 :  08:37:46  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

Wow Crock, just WOW! I think you could have written that repetitive nonsense in about 1/4 of the words you used. I felt like a grade 8 English teacher reading an essay I requested of 500 words where a kid kept repeating the same crap over and over and over to get to his 500. Brutal.

I have to say, I love how you conveniently awaited a big game from Phil to submit this essay! I meant, were you sweating out the 2 straight pointless and 4 straight goalless games from Phil? Kinda backs up the "streaky" label someone once gave him actually.

What you fail to comprehend, is the argument against this contract has everything to do with things OTHER THAN scoring. No one is going to argue that Kessel doesn't put up goals and points. The opinion of some is that he doesn't bring enough of an all around game to warrant such a deal. I don't care who got more points than him really. I mean, are you saying he's better than Crosby because he's outpointed him? Are you saying he's more valuable than Tavares? No one is doubting he's a top 10 offensive player in the NHL, moreso they've argued his all around game isn't worth the salary he's getting.

You say Kessel's been a top 5 player the past 3 years? Well, FYI, he's been a top 5 offensive player only. Don't get the 2 confused. Lemme put it to you this way, with a simple question. Who would you rather have as a Leaf if you could only choose 1. Phil Kessel or Jonathan Toews? If you answer this the way most sane people would, you'll fully be able to comprehend the justification of the "anti-Kessel" side of this argument! If you answer incorrectly, well, the rest of us will be able to justify the value we choose to take from your posts.........



I disagree completely with you on your usage of the word repetetive and nonsense . . . Crock was fairly eloquent, I have to say, in his defence of Kessel. It's only a defence, because of people like yourself that are too stubborn and too blind to get past an initial opinion.

And I get that - we've all done it. The Leafs are hated, and get all the press . . . Kessel got a ton of bad press, much of it warranted at first, for his "soft winger" qualities . . . but then again, whe looking at the other "soft elite wingers" - many of them far softer than Kessel at this point, IMHO - they don't even come close to measuring up (other than perhaps St. Louis, who is an excellent defensive player as well I think).

And consistency is SUCH a huge part of being great, I think. One-offs are just that - they are a blip!!! Kessel is no blip! He has been a soft, elite scorer, pretty one-dimensional (first few years); is now an elite playmaker AND scorer, who has improved his "softness quotient" to an average level for the superstars (last three years).

Why are almost all the opinions on Phil Kessel stuck at 2009? Folks . . . it's 2013!! Gonna be 2014 pretty soon!

Get with the times.

Alex,
speaking of redundant soliliquies,
and speaking of not having a grade 8 level of reading comprehension,
Did you read any of Crock's writing that directly addresses some of your points of contention? I feel that you may have skimmed over some of it, not unlike . . . a grade 8 student preparing for a test by quickly flipping through Coles Notes.

"Kinda backs up the "streaky" label someone once gave him actually."

Prove that Kessel is streakier than any star who puts up 70 points + who is an elite scorer. I dare you.

I have said it before, I'll say it again . . . stop repeating ad nauseum BS you've heard: Kessel is THE #1 MOST CONSISTENT SCORER IN THE NHL. Full Stop. (yes, I am talking on a game by game basis, yes. DO. THE. COMPARISON.)

"What you fail to comprehend, is the argument against this contract has everything to do with things OTHER THAN scoring"

Um, no it doesn't. Not EVERYTHING, anyways.

And haven't we proven in his consistently rising assist totals (and if we haven't properly, then go look t up, ok?) and by seeing his improved play overall in ALL areas, that he isn't just a one-dimensional scorer at this point? You do realise that, I hope? Or maybe you just don't watch enough Leaf games . . .

Because I'll tell ya: you may think Crock's doing some "cherry-picking" . . . but if there ain't any cherries to pick, there can be no cherry picking.

And Kessel has a lot of cherries to pick, each year. In the shortened season last year, I can point to about 5, 6 games Phil won basically on his own: dominating and controlling the play, dictating defences against him. It's about a dozen , ten each year, and this year will be no different - this is his first one of the year (last night), and there'll be more.


"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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The_Gipper
Rookie



Canada
207 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2013 :  10:04:05  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
i don't get the argument that Kessel is a streaky scorer. i mean, aren't most, if not all, goal scorers streaky? if they weren't we'd have 80+ goal scorers all over the place...
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5787 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2013 :  12:03:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by slozo
I disagree completely with you on your usage of the word repetetive and nonsense . . . Crock was fairly eloquent, I have to say, in his defence of Kessel. It's only a defence, because of people like yourself that are too stubborn and too blind to get past an initial opinion.

Slozo, the biggest WRONG you have here is saying i'm too stubborn and too blind to get past an initial opinion. Well, claiming anything in Crock's post was eloquent may be worse actually, but we can deal with that part later. FYI, i don't hate Phil Kessel as a hockey player and obviously don't know him as a person. I'll admit, i'm a Leaf hater, but that doesn't mean i automatically "hate" Kessel, and if you recall my post earlier, i somewhat defended the Leafs on this deal, though i do still think Kessel wins, to answer the original question. So, don't lump me in with those who you think hate everything Kessel because he's a Leaf. FYI, i was a HUGE Wendel Clark fan back in the day, and it was tough because i really hated the Leafs then too.

quote:
Originally posted by slozo

And I get that - we've all done it. The Leafs are hated, and get all the press . . . Kessel got a ton of bad press, much of it warranted at first, for his "soft winger" qualities . . . but then again, whe looking at the other "soft elite wingers" - many of them far softer than Kessel at this point, IMHO - they don't even come close to measuring up (other than perhaps St. Louis, who is an excellent defensive player as well I think).

And consistency is SUCH a huge part of being great, I think. One-offs are just that - they are a blip!!! Kessel is no blip! He has been a soft, elite scorer, pretty one-dimensional (first few years); is now an elite playmaker AND scorer, who has improved his "softness quotient" to an average level for the superstars (last three years).

I think perhaps i made the mistake of jumping on Crock's post before some others who i was actually more or less representing in my response. Much the way i mentioned the "streaky" comment that was someone else's claim, not my own. I don't care that Kessel is "soft". Heck, i'm a Daniel Sedin fan and look at the punching bag he became for Marchand a couple years ago! Who am i to complain that Kessel is soft? Lol. However, when talking about consistency, Daniel Sedin is up there with the best of them and i don't see him making 8M per season!
Thing is, when i read a post like Crock's and i find it to be so ridiculously biased and unfounded, i feel the urge to respond! When i see a poster trying to more or less claim Kessel is worth more than Sidney Crosby because he has more points over the past 3 seasons, i just can't sit back and accept it!
quote:
Originally posted by slozo

Alex,
speaking of redundant soliliquies,
and speaking of not having a grade 8 level of reading comprehension,

Just curious, do you know what a soliloquy is? I ask only because you spelt it wrong and it really doesn't describe anything i said. Go look it up. Same with the grade 8 level of reading comprehension? Where did i say anyone had that? I only compared Crock's post to a grade 8 essay. How does that relate to anyone's reading comprehension?


quote:
Originally posted by slozo
Did you read any of Crock's writing that directly addresses some of your points of contention? I feel that you may have skimmed over some of it, not unlike . . . a grade 8 student preparing for a test by quickly flipping through Coles Notes.

"Kinda backs up the "streaky" label someone once gave him actually."

Prove that Kessel is streakier than any star who puts up 70 points + who is an elite scorer. I dare you.

I have said it before, I'll say it again . . . stop repeating ad nauseum BS you've heard: Kessel is THE #1 MOST CONSISTENT SCORER IN THE NHL. Full Stop. (yes, I am talking on a game by game basis, yes. DO. THE. COMPARISON.)


First off, yes i did read Crock's entire post and in fact looked back at it as i responded. No Coles notes here. As i alluded to above, yes, this "streaky" label is not something i gave him rather, something someone else around here called him. I only mentioned because of the timing of Crocks' post and how it appears he was sitting around awaiting a big game from Phil to chime in on this thread!
As far as proving he's streaky, if i have some time later, even though it isn't my claim, i may take the time to look into this, however, i'd prefer if whoever made the remark wasted his or her own time. I don't really think i need to prove someone else's view, especially if you're going to throw out crap like "Kessel is THE #1 MOST CONSISTENT SCORER IN THE NHL. Full Stop." without proving it. Go ahead, try to prove that one! It's laughable, unless you're talking about a period of time from yesterday morning till this morning?

quote:
Originally posted by slozo
"What you fail to comprehend, is the argument against this contract has everything to do with things OTHER THAN scoring"

Um, no it doesn't. Not EVERYTHING, anyways.

And haven't we proven in his consistently rising assist totals (and if we haven't properly, then go look t up, ok?) and by seeing his improved play overall in ALL areas, that he isn't just a one-dimensional scorer at this point? You do realise that, I hope? Or maybe you just don't watch enough Leaf games . . .


Wrong again Slozo. I'll stand by my statement that "the argument against this contract has everything to do with things OTHER THAN scoring". Do you understand what this means? It means that those people arguing that the contract is too much for Phil Kessel accept/admit that he's got the offensive numbers to justify big dollars! Where their opinion is different is that he doesn't bring "the other things" to the table enough at this point in his career to warrant this dough! Simple as that. If you don't understand the other side's view now, regardless of whether or not you agree with it, well, i can't help you. You see, Crock's post was all claims about pts and goals and offense, etc. Never was there a mention about his all around game, his leadership, his respect in the room, his penalty killing, etc. aside from negative connotation regarding the things that have been mentioned. He does everything but defend Kessel and the rest of his game, and goes back to offensive "stats" as his defense of this 8M dollar deal!!!


BTW, i forgot to point out earlier too that the link Crock provided and his claim that Kessel has this consistency over the past 3 seasons is very misleading. It's misleading because one of those 3 seasons being included is the 10 games thus far this season, not to mention the lockout shortened season of last year. Sure, he was on a PPG+ pace last year and "may" have continued it but i just thought i'd point out that really this "3 season" crap is the last 140 or so games, not 240+ that 3 seasons would normally be. 140 games isn't even two full seasons, so take that consistency for what it's worth.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1872 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2013 :  13:37:32  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I have to admit though, Crocks insight almost always are followed by a list of comments against whether on not the slant on stats is true or not. For that Crock I commend you!
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2013 :  16:02:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Why, thank you very much Slozo! I appreciate your defense of my eloquence. I myself thought that I had turned in a paper worthy of at least a "B-"; but then I showed it to my 8th Grade Teacher... And it seems she didn't like it very much. Ugh. What can one do?

I think the argument that "Kessel is streaky" is starting to get a little bit stale. I'm looking at Kessel's game log from last season. There was one point in January where he went 4 games without a point. After that - check it out yourselves - he doesn't go more than 2 games without a point. In his final 15 games, he goes on a tear - 10 goals, 22 points, 15 games. One game with no points.

Hey, if that's streaky, I'll take THAT on my team any day. Any day. Raise your hands if you would like that on your team.

And, as The Gipper already mentioned: Name any goal-scorer in the League that isn't streaky.

The argument that "Kessel doesn't bring anything else to the Team" is also bizarre. Alex - he doesn't have to. Not every player is a Toews, or a Bergeron, or a Dion Phaneuf for that matter. Are you getting on Kessel's case because he doesn't kill penalties?? And yet... And yet... neither does Daniel Sedin?? And you failed to mention that??

No leadership? Not Phil's role.

Doesn't hit? Not Phil's role.

Doesn't block shots? You know what I'm about to write here. But let me tell you why: The coaching staff doesn't want Phil Kessel blocking shots... Because they don't want him to get injured. Because they want him to score goals.

Every player on a team has a role. We know that Toews is the Leader Heart-and-Soul of his Team. We know that Bergeron is there as a shut-down Center who wins faceoffs. Cal Clutterbuck is there to HIT everything that moves. Phil Kessel? His role is to score goals. That's his role. Pointe Finale.

Would I rather have Toews or Kessel? Great question. Well, the answer depends on who is already on the team. Which role do I need? Do I already have Phaneuf on my team as captain? Then I'll take Kessel. He scores more goals. LOL. Do I already have Patrick Kane on my team (scores goals, not so much of a leader perhaps)? I'll take Toews.

Phil Kessel's ROLE on the team isn't to do all of those things you were talking about. His role is to score and create goals. And, he does that in Spades. The stats back it up. I know, I know. Pesky, irritating stats. Keep getting in the way...

Now, you are right about the years. My bad. I "only" went back 2-and-a-half years. So now, let's go back 3-and-a-half. Here's the link:

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-4-nhl-seasons-players-stats.html

Who's #7?

Now filter for Goals. Who's #4? (No point in mentioning here that it's Phil Kessel.)

Let's do that again. Because I know you like repetition. Let's go back 4-and-a-half years:

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-5-nhl-seasons-players-stats.html

Okay, Phil Kessel is "only" 17th in League Scoring in the Past 5 seasons. But, Phil Kessel IS #5 in NHL Goal-Scoring in the Past Five Years.

I believe that you could call that: a.) Very good, b.) Very impressive, and c.) Very consistent. I believe that that is what that is called.


Now, let me poke the bear.

Alex, who would you rather have on your team: Phil Kessel? Or Daniel Sedin???

LOL.





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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3581 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2013 :  16:55:38  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

The argument that "Kessel doesn't bring anything else to the Team" is also bizarre. Alex - he doesn't have to. Not every player is a Toews, or a Bergeron, or a Dion Phaneuf for that matter. Are you getting on Kessel's case because he doesn't kill penalties?? And yet... And yet... neither does Daniel Sedin?? And you failed to mention that??



The Sedin's, as of this year, are killing penalties - and they're pretty good at it too. The problem was never the Sedin's, it was that AV never put them in that role. We're finding out now just how good they are at it...

It should also be noted that, until they came to the NHL, the Sedin's did kill penalties, a lot. They're defensive game was never really questioned.

quote:

No leadership? Not Phil's role.

Doesn't hit? Not Phil's role.

Every player on a team has a role. We know that Toews is the Leader Heart-and-Soul of his Team. We know that Bergeron is there as a shut-down Center who wins faceoffs. Cal Clutterbuck is there to HIT everything that moves. Phil Kessel? His role is to score goals. That's his role. Pointe Finale.



Which really (finally) brings us back to the original premise of this thread...

Unfortunately, when you pay a guy 8M a year, you expect more than just goals, or more than just a single "role". Look at the guys that make 8M a year, they all bring more to the table than just a single role.

quote:

Would I rather have Toews or Kessel? Great question. Well, the answer depends on who is already on the team. Which role do I need? Do I already have Phaneuf on my team as captain? Then I'll take Kessel. He scores more goals. LOL. Do I already have Patrick Kane on my team (scores goals, not so much of a leader perhaps)? I'll take Toews.



I can just see Stevie Y thinking about the same thing....

"you know, we already have Crosby, Getzlaf, Staal on team Canada, they're all pretty good centres. We have a couple of good defensmen with some leadership skills. Do we really need Toews?"

For most of the hockey world, there is no "it depends on who is already on the team" with that comparison. You have officially lost all credibility.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5787 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2013 :  17:31:58  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
The argument that "Kessel doesn't bring anything else to the Team" is also bizarre. Alex - he doesn't have to. Not every player is a Toews, or a Bergeron, or a Dion Phaneuf for that matter. Are you getting on Kessel's case because he doesn't kill penalties?? And yet... And yet... neither does Daniel Sedin?? And you failed to mention that??

No leadership? Not Phil's role.

Doesn't hit? Not Phil's role.

Doesn't block shots? You know what I'm about to write here. But let me tell you why: The coaching staff doesn't want Phil Kessel blocking shots... Because they don't want him to get injured. Because they want him to score goals.

Every player on a team has a role. We know that Toews is the Leader Heart-and-Soul of his Team. We know that Bergeron is there as a shut-down Center who wins faceoffs. Cal Clutterbuck is there to HIT everything that moves. Phil Kessel? His role is to score goals. That's his role. Pointe Finale.


Wow, i'll tell you what is bizarre. Bizarre is your way of defending an 8 Million dollar contract! Most Leafers and Kessel supporters, and especially those who feel he fully deserves this contract, would attempt, like Slozo has, to defend other area's of Phil's game. They would claim his all around play is better, that his assists totals have improved, etc etc..... You, na, nevermind that, PHIL SCORES GOALS!!! Lol, that's comical. Seriously, if that's your way of justifying his contract, it's not even worth my time discussing it with you.

quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

Would I rather have Toews or Kessel? Great question. Well, the answer depends on who is already on the team. Which role do I need? Do I already have Phaneuf on my team as captain? Then I'll take Kessel. He scores more goals. LOL. Do I already have Patrick Kane on my team (scores goals, not so much of a leader perhaps)? I'll take Toews.

Phil Kessel's ROLE on the team isn't to do all of those things you were talking about. His role is to score and create goals. And, he does that in Spades. The stats back it up. I know, I know. Pesky, irritating stats. Keep getting in the way...


Way to beat around the bush and really avoid the question by changing the way it was asked. Guess i need to be more clear with some people on here when asking hypotheticals. Ok, let's try it again.....IF you were starting a brand new expansion team and you had to pick between Phil Kessel and Jonathan Toews as your first pick, who would you take? Oh, and i have to say, you're really overvaluing Dion Phaneuf when throwing him in this mix i'd say. Here's a guy half of Leaf-land wanted to run outta town not too long ago!!!

quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
Now, you are right about the years. My bad. I "only" went back 2-and-a-half years. So now, let's go back 3-and-a-half. Here's the link:

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-4-nhl-seasons-players-stats.html

Who's #7?

Now filter for Goals. Who's #4? (No point in mentioning here that it's Phil Kessel.)

Let's do that again. Because I know you like repetition. Let's go back 4-and-a-half years:

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-5-nhl-seasons-players-stats.html

Okay, Phil Kessel is "only" 17th in League Scoring in the Past 5 seasons. But, Phil Kessel IS #5 in NHL Goal-Scoring in the Past Five Years.

I believe that you could call that: a.) Very good, b.) Very impressive, and c.) Very consistent. I believe that that is what that is called.



OK stats guy, if you wanna look at it with numbers, why don't we look at it with a PPG view?

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-4-nhl-seasons-players-stats.html

Where's your boy now? Not behind 17 other guys is he? No, can't be? Now sure, his durability is to be commended, but injuries are very unpredictable in the NHL so it's hard to put any negative on guys who've been out (Crosby, Spezza, Malkin, etc.). Even look at the guys who've played comparable games as Phil and you'll see some names ahead of him that may surprise you. All i'm getting at BTW, is that your "last 3 seasons" thing was a bit skewed.

quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

Now, let me poke the bear.

Alex, who would you rather have on your team: Phil Kessel? Or Daniel Sedin???

LOL.


Well, that really depends. If i go by your theory and stats, i'd have to say Daniel Sedin. You see, looking at the chart YOU supplied for the past 4 seasons here's the comparison:
D. Sedin - 212GP, 86G, 135A, 221PTS, +57, 1.042PPG
P. Kessel - 222GP, 94G, 115A, 209PTS, -30, 0.941PPG
It's close, but going on the allmighty stats of the Crock world, i have to go with Daniel who outpointed Kessel by 12 in 10 fewer games. But really it'd be a toss up.

Now, if i go by reality and not stats, it could be a different story, however, in Daniel, you've chosen a tough one to use as a comparison, mainly because of the "twin" factor but also age. At this point, if i'm starting a team and had the choice, i'd prob go with Kessel as i don't think Daniel has more than a couple/three 80pt seasons left in him (or thereabouts). Then again, it will prob depend on what i would have to pay Daniel. He is just coming off a 6.1M dollar deal with those numbers so at 8M, i'd expect much more. Bottom line for me is an $8M dollar deal in todays market ought to fetch you at minimum, a 40 and maybe even 45 goal, 100+ point season. Kessel may hit that, but can he do it for the next 4 or 5 years? (i expect salaries to continue rising to the point that in 4-5 years, his 8M may not be out of the market for what he's doing performance wise).

Oh, BTW, i forgot to comment on this:
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
Are you getting on Kessel's case because he doesn't kill penalties?? And yet... And yet... neither does Daniel Sedin?? And you failed to mention that??

First off, i didn't get on Kessel's case because he doesn't kill penalties. In fact, i just mentioned the PK as part of a list of examples of other facets of the game that you didn't touch on. It was me ranting to Slozo about how every little bit of your defense of Kessel had to do with offensive stats and nothing else. I never mentioned Daniel Sedin's lack of penalty killing as it didn't have any bearing on the part of my post where i even mentioned him, nor is Daniel Sedin the one people are questioning over an $8M dollar frickin' deal!!! Oh, and FYI, the Sedins, both of them, are currently averaging over a minute per game on the PK this season.








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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1872 Posts

Posted - 10/24/2013 :  13:28:55  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Looking at the stats provided for Daniel Sedin, I will say Daniel is either underpaid or this might be one of the clearest case's to argue Kessel is overpaid, when comparing to a like minded player who has proved it over a longer period of time. When is Daniel Sedin's contract up? Do you believe he will sign for less than Kessel's contract? The other thing that surprises me is I have always thought Henrick was the better of the 2? Would you disregard there contracts due to the fact both likely take less to play together? Another thing is people are already taking about the Sedin's like its preordained that there production will drop, while claiming Kessel's will increase. I'd say its as likely they will maintain there level of production for a few more years and just as likely Kessel might not. Am I wrong?

If I was gonna pick from a pool, I would be mighty tempted to pick up a Sedin, either of them, before Kessel!

Edited by - JOSHUACANADA on 10/24/2013 13:30:33
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5787 Posts

Posted - 10/24/2013 :  16:06:40  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Joshua....in fairness, the Sedin's both took a bit of a hometown discount to help Vancouver. They also signed these deals 4 years ago and salaries would have been slightly lower then. They're both due up for new contracts after this season and there's already been some rumours that contract talks have gone nowhere AND even some saying the Canucks are either shopping them, or other teams have called inquiring about them? Likely more just rumours at this point than anything else.

I don't see them getting 8M, partly as you noted, because there's two of them. Secondly, and this also touches on your other point about their production, i don't see them having more than a couple/three years left at or around PPG production. I could be wrong though as these two don't really rely on speed or skating, something that often affects guys as they get older. Lastly, no way do they get 8 year deals at a number near 8M. In fairness, Kessel is much younger and this deal he just signed will bring him up near the age the Sedin's currently are! Now, the Sedin's may get something close to that, but i'd have to guess it'd be on a much shorter term, such as 3 years??? Keep in mind, the term of Kessel's deal is what a lot of us had the big problem with.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3581 Posts

Posted - 10/24/2013 :  16:35:27  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

Looking at the stats provided for Daniel Sedin, I will say Daniel is either underpaid or this might be one of the clearest case's to argue Kessel is overpaid, when comparing to a like minded player who has proved it over a longer period of time. When is Daniel Sedin's contract up? Do you believe he will sign for less than Kessel's contract? The other thing that surprises me is I have always thought Henrick was the better of the 2? Would you disregard there contracts due to the fact both likely take less to play together? Another thing is people are already taking about the Sedin's like its preordained that there production will drop, while claiming Kessel's will increase. I'd say its as likely they will maintain there level of production for a few more years and just as likely Kessel might not. Am I wrong?

If I was gonna pick from a pool, I would be mighty tempted to pick up a Sedin, either of them, before Kessel!



Both Sedin contracts expire at the end of this season. I think most would agree that they took a discount to market when they signed those deals in 09 - both had established themselves as legitimate PPG players, and together had established themselves as one of the best producing tandems in the NHL (if not the best). I don't think Henrik is better or worse than Daniel - he is the playmaker of the two (perhaps one of the top 3 playmakers in the game today), and as a centre has additional responsibilities, but they have disturbingly similar stats over their careers.

However, the Sedin's are a unique situation in the NHL. You have 2 players that must make the same salary, and can only achieve their true (perceived) value if they play together. I don't think any team would consider them unless they could get both, which effectively limits what you can pay them while still icing a competitive team. Gillis managed to walk a fine line with that reality in 2009, and got them signed to contracts that were mutually beneficial at the beginning, and massively beneficial to VAN in the end.

Assuming the same cap as today, I believe that the Sedin's have to each sign for less than Kessel, although I would argue that they are more worthy of 8M cap hits in 2014 than Kessel is. I don't completely disregard their contracts for comparison purposes, but I tend to compare them to other tandems. For example, other highly effective tandems and combined pay (in no particular order):

- Backstrom/OV - total cap hit of 16M
- Stamkos/St Louis - 13M
- Datsyuk/Zetterberg - 12.7M
- Crosby/Neal - 13.7M
- Perry/Getzlaf - 17M
- Toews/Kane - 12.6M
- Eberle/Hall - 12M
- Richards/Nash - 14.2M
- Spezza/Ryan - 12.1M

In all those cases except ANA, one of the players is paid more than the other, but it seems like an elite tandem is earning 13-14M. I don't think its unreasonable for the Sedin's to be paid 13-14M together, which for them means 6.5-7M each.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1872 Posts

Posted - 10/24/2013 :  17:04:03  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I heard that both were playing under Tortella occasionally off each others lines to mix it up and give Vancouver some flexibility in there lineups. I have also heard it said that when one twin gets injured the production of the other does not always drop off. I have heard it said mostly that either would take a discount if it meant they could play together. So my question is what happens if the Sedins get shopped individually and the buyer pays 8 million over 4 years for either or both individual contracts. Does this mean the Kessel deal is of value?

Also we are all assuming Kessel entering his 8th year with be below the value of contracts of players his value now in 8 years. I believe guys like Spezza will look right at this contract as a reason to ask for more. Spezza certainly doesn't look to be slowing down any. He has more goals at 7 in less games 8 and truly is deserving of a contract like this, but with less length. Plus he is a centre and a captain.

For the record as of today Kessel is tied for 28th in assists at 6, tied for 7th in goals at 5 and tied for 7th in points at 11. Henrick leads in points 13 and assists at 10, Daniel leads in assists at 7, but Kessel leads both in goals.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3581 Posts

Posted - 10/24/2013 :  22:39:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

I heard that both were playing under Tortella occasionally off each others lines to mix it up and give Vancouver some flexibility in there lineups. I have also heard it said that when one twin gets injured the production of the other does not always drop off. I have heard it said mostly that either would take a discount if it meant they could play together. So my question is what happens if the Sedins get shopped individually and the buyer pays 8 million over 4 years for either or both individual contracts. Does this mean the Kessel deal is of value?



You sure do hear a lot of stuff about the Sedins!

There is not enough evidence that there would be prolonged success without the other, because they just haven't done it much in their careers. AV and Torts both split the twins up from time to time, but its rarely for more than a period at at time, just to shake things up. The time apart from injury is about 30 games in the last decade, they are generally durable players.

Like I said, the twins are unique. I don't think any GM worth his salt would trade for one and not the other - they are valuable on their own, but they are so much more valuable (production-wise) together. You probably see highlight goals from time to time, but you have to see them on a nightly basis to truly appreciate how they can dominate play for extended periods of time on intuition and perfect blind passes in a cycle. They are extremely skilled, and prolific scoring machines, on a consistent basis.

As for comparing the Sedin's to Kessel - there is very little comparison IMO. They are different beasts, at different stages of their careers. The Sedin's are 33 years old, superstars that will start to decline in 2-3 years time. Kessel is an up-and-coming star in the league, at 25 he has lots of years left, and all of them prime years.

The only thing that they have in common is that neither is worth 8M per year.

Edited by - nuxfan on 10/24/2013 22:40:29
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4575 Posts

Posted - 10/25/2013 :  05:51:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Just curious, do you know what a soliloquy is? I ask only because you spelt it wrong and it really doesn't describe anything i said. Go look it up. Same with the grade 8 level of reading comprehension? Where did i say anyone had that? I only compared Crock's post to a grade 8 essay. How does that relate to anyone's reading comprehension?


Alex,
Pardon my fast writing for the incorrect spelling of soliloquy . . . but talking about myself misspelling a word, and in your next sentence using the non-word "spelt" is . . . well, it's ironic, humorous, and kills whatever attempt you made at dissembling my point.

(FYI - spelt gets through a good spellcheck, as the only meaning of the word is an ancient grain - not as an alliteration of the word "spelled")

And it describes exactly what I meant: a long, overwrought speech, delivered/orated to oneself in front of an audience . . . usually used by thespians to describe a speech by an actor talking to the audience, as in the "Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou Romeo" speech by Juliet.

Your speech was similar to me, in fact; long, overwrought, WAY over-dramatic . . . and it didn't have a lot of substance.

You insulted Crock by calling it a Grade 8 level essay . . . and I retort in kind that I think you demonstrated a grade 8 level of reading comprehension in missing several salient points . . . and you act as if YOU have been the one attacked?

To answer your question - my reference to grade 8 reading comprehension (your inability to properly read and understand) directly correlates to the irony of you making ridiculous commentary on someone else's (Crock's) grade 8 level of writing.

Do you understand now? Have we beaten this dead horse enough times? You get it?

I didn't want this to turn into an "insult-fest", but . . . if you can't take some ribbing right back in exactly the same way you delivered it to someone else, then you need a lesson in decorum.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5787 Posts

Posted - 10/25/2013 :  12:23:21  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Slozo....First things first, i can take a ribbing as well as the next person. Do you get a sense i was really upset or something?

Anyway, i actually noted my mispelled word when i re-read my post and unfortunately didn't have time to edit it before getting pulled away from my computer. Unfortunately, sometimes work comes first. Regardless, i'm not one to usually care about online spelling / grammar and was in fact quite serious when i asked and noted the mistake. I'll be quite honest, i'm a high school grad with some college eduction but no degree, however, grade 8 for me was some 30ish years ago so i won't ever claim to be an English major. I will say that your interpretation of "soliloquy" still doesn't cut it. I have to be honest, i had no idea what one was so i had to look it up but either way, it doesn't really fit your use. Even the way you brought it up was quesionable..... "Alex, speaking of redundant soliliquies..." Huh? At what point was anyone speaking of such? Um, NEVER? Either way, the purpose of my post wasn't intended to lead to a debate about english spelling and grammar, and unlike you i don't wanna waste a ton of time arguing these small things.

Your post touches on a grand total of ONE thing i spoke of / asked, and ironically, it was one of the only points which had nothing to do with hockey. There wasn't a single reference to any of the hockey based points i made, just a retort about my mispelled word and an insult about my level of reading comprehension.

At least Crock had the decency to touch on the hockey based stuff we were discussing, such as whether or not Kessel is streaky, what his role is, etc. We may not agree on these things, but at least it wasn't an entire reply about the irony of me mispelling a word when mentioning you doing the same.
I'll try to refrain in the future from commenting on these such things, but i find it hard at times because you're obviously far more intellectual than i judging by the words and phrases you use. "Soliloquies", "salient points", "lessons in decorum", etc, and that's just in this one post???
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admin
Forum Admin



Canada
2161 Posts

Posted - 10/25/2013 :  12:42:06  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Gents, let's keep this on topic please. And let's avoid the personal drama.
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 10/25/2013 :  18:52:25  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Daniel Sedin in his first six seasons:
478GP, 119G, 187A, 306Pts. Age 20-27 (played one year in Sweden which was not counted).

Daniel's first season with a point-per-game pace was in 2006-2007 when he put up 84Pts in 81GP (36G, 48A) - when he was 26-years-old.

Daniel's first six seasons: 0.64PPG, 0.25GPG.

Phil Kessel in his first six seasons:
504GP, 185G, 194A, 381Pts. Age 19-25

Phil Kessel's first season at a point-per-game pace was in 11-12 when he put up 82Pts in 82GP (37G, 45A) - when he was 24-years-old.

Kessel's first six seasons: 0.75PPG, 0.37GPG.

--

We know that players often reach their maximum potential (their prime) any where between the ages of 27 and 30. Actually, for Daniel, it was when he was 31-years-old - a whopping season of 104Pts in 82GP in 2010-2011. Great season.

Phil Kessel is currently 26-years-old. He hasn't hit his Prime yet. We do not yet know what that Prime will look like; however, all signs point to a MAJOR progression for Phil Kessel - especially in the next 3-4 years.

In fact, for a player that already has five straight seasons with 30+ Goals under his belt before reaching his Prime age; Phil Kessel is a VERY solid bet to be a 40-goal scorer this year (Prime -1 Year); before REALLY lighting it up in 2-4 years' time.

Daniel Sedin's best season came when he was 31. For Phil Kessel, that will be in 5 years. If Kessel is anything like Daniel Sedin (all signs throughout their career so far point to very similar numbers / very comparable stats); then when Phil Kessel, he is a virtual lock to score 50 Goals, and have a 110 Point Season at some point during his career. I'll even give you the year: 2016-2017 - watch for Phil Kessel to score 50, and put up 110 Points in 2016-2017. (Obviously barring injury).

The Leafs signed Kessel throughout this entire "Prime" Period. Granted, Kessel's 32-34 years of age seasons (the last three seasons on his contract), we should see some regression. And, fair enough. We are seeing the same with the Sedins right now.

**The person who contested Sedin's regression, and then questioned Kessel's progression clearly doesn't look at stats. Daniel Sedin's stats have gone steadily down since that monster 104-point season - 67pts two years ago, 40 points last year; while Kessel's have just gone steadily up - 64pts three years ago, 82 two years ago, 52 last season.

I don't think there's a debate as to whether the Sedins are trending downward. They are definitely trending downward. Sure, they are off to a good start this season. Hey, I wish them well. But, the signs say that they will both finish with around 70-75pts apiece. Good, but not a point-per-game.

Kessel on the other hand *should* put up 38 Goals, and 48 Assists - 88 points. Somewhere in the Top 10 in the League.

But again, it won't even be this season. Not "yet" as they say. Not even next year. It will be in 2-4 years when Kessel puts his "big" season. Draft accordingly.

In any event, given Kessel's age and career stats up until this point - signing him through his Prime is an EXCELLENT move by the Club. Nothing in life is for sure - but this is the poker equivalent to pushing all in with the Nut Full House. It's a very good bet. One that any club in the NHL would have just been chomping at the bit to make.

Odds are that Phil Kessel is not only worth 8 million a season; but that he will be worth much MORE than that in 2-4 years' time. Therefore, the Leafs made an excellent deal here.



















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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1872 Posts

Posted - 10/26/2013 :  09:20:30  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Yet with all the evidence you brought, Daniel was playing for $3+ million per year at the same age Kessel signs his $8 million contract. I notice you didn't compare him the Henrick who has greater career stats and achieved them sooner than Daniel, who also played for $3+ million at the same age Kessel signed his $8 million contract.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1872 Posts

Posted - 10/26/2013 :  09:23:46  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I also find it interesting when you claim Kessel to be on the upswing and say clearly the Sedin are on the downswing, when in this early part of the season Daniel is tied with Kessel in points at 12, while Henrick is leading them both by 4 at 16.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3581 Posts

Posted - 10/26/2013 :  15:17:57  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

Daniel Sedin in his first six seasons:
478GP, 119G, 187A, 306Pts. Age 20-27 (played one year in Sweden which was not counted).

Daniel's first season with a point-per-game pace was in 2006-2007 when he put up 84Pts in 81GP (36G, 48A) - when he was 26-years-old.

Daniel's first six seasons: 0.64PPG, 0.25GPG.

Phil Kessel in his first six seasons:
504GP, 185G, 194A, 381Pts. Age 19-25

Phil Kessel's first season at a point-per-game pace was in 11-12 when he put up 82Pts in 82GP (37G, 45A) - when he was 24-years-old.

Kessel's first six seasons: 0.75PPG, 0.37GPG.

--



Daniel's salary after hitting PPG status: 6.1 M

Kessel's salary after hitting PPG status: 8M

I don't think you are arguing the correct point here. No one is claiming that Kessel is a bad player, or is not going to put up points. Rather, is simply putting up PPG numbers worth 8M a year?

quote:

We know that players often reach their maximum potential (their prime) any where between the ages of 27 and 30. Actually, for Daniel, it was when he was 31-years-old - a whopping season of 104Pts in 82GP in 2010-2011. Great season.

Phil Kessel is currently 26-years-old. He hasn't hit his Prime yet. We do not yet know what that Prime will look like; however, all signs point to a MAJOR progression for Phil Kessel - especially in the next 3-4 years.



Actually, for Daniel, his best season was the season before, 09/10. He missed 20 games with a broken ankle, causing his total points to be lower, but his PPG was higher that season than the next.

You have no idea whether or not Kessel has hit his prime, or will get better than he is now - just because "most players" do so between 27 and 30 does not mean that Kessel will see any appreciable increase in his output. Perhaps he will be a PPG player over his career from here on out - good for 35g/40a a season. What then?

quote:


Daniel Sedin's best season came when he was 31. For Phil Kessel, that will be in 5 years. If Kessel is anything like Daniel Sedin (all signs throughout their career so far point to very similar numbers / very comparable stats); then when Phil Kessel, he is a virtual lock to score 50 Goals, and have a 110 Point Season at some point during his career. I'll even give you the year: 2016-2017 - watch for Phil Kessel to score 50, and put up 110 Points in 2016-2017. (Obviously barring injury).



You are missing one very important factor in Daniel's success over his career - Henrik. Having a twin brother that is also one of the best playmaking centres in the game today has a huge impact on performance.

quote:

I don't think there's a debate as to whether the Sedins are trending downward. They are definitely trending downward. Sure, they are off to a good start this season. Hey, I wish them well. But, the signs say that they will both finish with around 70-75pts apiece. Good, but not a point-per-game.



They have trended downward from 100+ point seasons, to merely PPG, however that was always going to be expected, few players can maintain that sort of production year over year. They are getting older, and their production will decrease as the years go on. As for their production this year, both are on pace to finish over PPG again this season. What "signs" are you referring to that makes you think they will finish under PPG?

quote:

Kessel on the other hand *should* put up 38 Goals, and 48 Assists - 88 points. Somewhere in the Top 10 in the League.



*should* because you think he will, based on some other "signs"? or *should* because he needs to, just to start justifying this contract?

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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  11:29:40  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Joshua, I chose Daniel arbitrarily over Henrik - because it really doesn't matter. Over their first seven NHL seasons, their production is almost completely the same (actually Daniel is a better match for Kessel - more goals, fewer assists). But again, over their first seven seasons - Daniel and Henrik are pretty much interchangeable here.

Alex, you mentioned that Daniel's best season was when he broke his ankle - because of a higher PPG. Okay, fair enough. All you have done there is to add credence to my argument. Daniel was 29 when he had that season. So, that's exactly what I was suggesting for Kessel - his "best" years should come anywhere between the ages of 27-30. I offered 2016-2017 as Kessel's "peak" year - when he is 29 - that's actually exactly what I wrote. I think that by pointing out Daniel's "best year was at the age of 29" - you've just underlined exactly what I just said.

You said that I have "no idea whether Kessel has hit his Prime or not". You are right. I have absolutely no idea. What I said is:

Based on everything we know about Hockey Players, and their production based on age, Kessel is an EXTREMELY STRONG candidate to have a progression over the next few years. Like I said, 27-30 is a player's "Prime Age". Kessel hasn't hit that yet. Like I said, "nothing in life is for sure"; but it's an extremely good bet.

Can you offer us any evidence to the contrary?

And, for another interesting exercise (I will do the same on my end) - find me a player who's production "dropped" after they hit 27 years of age. **There aren't many. And those that we do find will be the exception rather than the norm. Look at any NHL player's stats - and you will see that in general, they will "peak" between the ages of 27-30.

All this talk about Daniel Sedin, is to compare a player in their early career with similar numbers. Sedin didn't hit PPG status until 26. Kessel has already achieved that twice, AND, it is a safe bet to say that he will do so again - several times throughout the Prime Age of his career. We aren't comparing "who is better - Daniel or Kessel".

You also mentioned that "a huge impact on Daniel's stats has been his brother". Right. Again, I think you are lending credence to my argument here. Daniel has been playing with Henrik this whole time. Kessel? Well, Tyler Bozak?? JVR seems to have found his home in Toronto - but that's THIS season. Two years ago, Kessel was scoring at a point-a-game pace - on a losing team with nobody on it. So, again, thank you for pointing that out.

Joshua, you still are kind of questioning my assertion that "Kessel is on the upswing, while the Sedins are on the downswing". But then, you are citing their performances over the first 10 games of the season. Ummm. First 10 games of the season. Look at the stats from the past two years. Kessel will outscore both Sedins this season. Again, nothing in life is for sure. But it is a VERY good bet to assume that Kessel WILL outscore either of the Sedins this season based on past trends.

Alex, the word "should" meant that "based on past trends, and everything we know about a player's Prime Age blah blah blah", we "should" see an increase to Kessel's production over the next couple of years. I believe that was very clear.

Fine. Both of you don't seem to like this contract (just like you seem to not like Kessel). But, why not?? I've just given a million reasons why it is an EXCELLENT contract for the Leafs. I haven't heard anything (based on HARD EVIDENCE / OBJECTIVE FACTORS) that would suggest otherwise. (Alex's vague notions of back-checking/leadership/every players is... vague at best. Give me something measurable here.)

There still seems to be a stigma surrounding Phil Kessel. It's almost like you guys don't believe that he can keep going at this pace. What in the world would suggest that to you???? Like, really? Did you see the game he played last night?? I thought he was First Star (I was disappointed they didn't even give him a Star). He was buzzing around the net all night long. He had a hattrick the game before that. He hasn't recorded a point in only two games this season. He is the go-to guy in Toronto - a team with one of the best PPs in the game. What is the world would suggest to you that Kessel "won't" keep up this production??

I was in the hockey locker room talking about this the other day with the guys. Somebody actually said, "it shouldn't have been a dime over 7.4 million."

ROFL. Are you kidding me!?!?

So, if you don't like this contract so much. What would you say Kessel's "value" is?? Would you have accepted 7 million over 7 years?? Like, are we splitting hairs now? He is - and is going to be over the next 3-4 seasons - going to be a Top Player in the game. Isn't that what we pay our big players for?? Isn't that his value?? Where would you put his value??





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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3581 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  14:41:44  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

Joshua, I chose Daniel arbitrarily over Henrik - because it really doesn't matter. Over their first seven NHL seasons, their production is almost completely the same (actually Daniel is a better match for Kessel - more goals, fewer assists). But again, over their first seven seasons - Daniel and Henrik are pretty much interchangeable here.



Daniel is the better comparison, he is the "sniper" between the two of them. They are not interchangeable, Henrik brings all the same scoring prowess, but adds very good faceoff skills and supreme playmaking ability. As a pure centre, he is more valuable than Daniel IMO.

quote:

Alex, you mentioned that Daniel's best season was when he broke his ankle - because of a higher PPG. Okay, fair enough. All you have done there is to add credence to my argument. Daniel was 29 when he had that season. So, that's exactly what I was suggesting for Kessel - his "best" years should come anywhere between the ages of 27-30. I offered 2016-2017 as Kessel's "peak" year - when he is 29 - that's actually exactly what I wrote. I think that by pointing out Daniel's "best year was at the age of 29" - you've just underlined exactly what I just said.

You said that I have "no idea whether Kessel has hit his Prime or not". You are right. I have absolutely no idea. What I said is:

Based on everything we know about Hockey Players, and their production based on age, Kessel is an EXTREMELY STRONG candidate to have a progression over the next few years. Like I said, 27-30 is a player's "Prime Age". Kessel hasn't hit that yet. Like I said, "nothing in life is for sure"; but it's an extremely good bet.

Can you offer us any evidence to the contrary?

And, for another interesting exercise (I will do the same on my end) - find me a player who's production "dropped" after they hit 27 years of age. **There aren't many. And those that we do find will be the exception rather than the norm. Look at any NHL player's stats - and you will see that in general, they will "peak" between the ages of 27-30.



I am nuxfan, not Alex

I think if you look , you will find that there are many players that peaked before your magical age of 27. With less than a minute of thought, I came up with:

- Scott Gomez: his best season came when he was 26 years old, and its been downhill from then on.

- Brian Gionta: best season came when he was 27 years old, downhill since then

- Corey Perry: still too young to say for sure, but as of now, his best season was 2 years ago when he was 25 or 26. His previous 2 years have been downhill from there. He's capable of matching it, but I doubt he'll surpass it.

- Ryan Getzlaf: same as Perry, too young to say for sure. His best season was 4 years ago, when he was 24. While I think he might match that production again, I don't think he will surpass it.

- Brad Richards: had his best years at age 25, and matched it at 30, but never surpassed it.

- Evgeni Malkin: had his best statistical career at 23. Has come close to matching it, but IMO is unlikely to surpass even though he is only 27 now.

- Alex Ovechkin: had best years at age 22, unlikely to match again

- Eric Staal: had best year at age 20, then settled into a 70-85 point window. unlikely to match

quote:

All this talk about Daniel Sedin, is to compare a player in their early career with similar numbers. Sedin didn't hit PPG status until 26. Kessel has already achieved that twice, AND, it is a safe bet to say that he will do so again - several times throughout the Prime Age of his career. We aren't comparing "who is better - Daniel or Kessel".



And again, to the main premise of the thread - is PPG enough to justify 8M per year? Just so we are clear - I too think Kessel will be around PPG for the next few years. I just do not think that a uni-dimensional player capable of PPG is worth 8M a year.

quote:

Joshua, you still are kind of questioning my assertion that "Kessel is on the upswing, while the Sedins are on the downswing". But then, you are citing their performances over the first 10 games of the season. Ummm. First 10 games of the season. Look at the stats from the past two years. Kessel will outscore both Sedins this season. Again, nothing in life is for sure. But it is a VERY good bet to assume that Kessel WILL outscore either of the Sedins this season based on past trends.



Look at the stats from the past 3 years - and suddenly your whole "argument" goes out the window. You seem to be cherry picking particular statistical windows to make your point.

Crock, I would be happy to take a bet with you, today, that Kessel will not outscore both Sedin's this season (min 70 games played each). I don't have a lot of faith that you will honour the bet if you lose, but whatever. Let me know.

quote:

Alex, the word "should" meant that "based on past trends, and everything we know about a player's Prime Age blah blah blah", we "should" see an increase to Kessel's production over the next couple of years. I believe that was very clear.



I have an exercise for you, and I suspect you will find very few examples - find players that hit PPG production before 27, and then saw their production increase by 20 points or more between the ages of 27 and 32. That is what you are suggesting that Kessel will do, so I'd be curious to know how many examples of this are out there.

Note - Daniel only did it twice.

quote:

Fine. Both of you don't seem to like this contract (just like you seem to not like Kessel). But, why not?? I've just given a million reasons why it is an EXCELLENT contract for the Leafs. I haven't heard anything (based on HARD EVIDENCE / OBJECTIVE FACTORS) that would suggest otherwise. (Alex's vague notions of back-checking/leadership/every players is... vague at best. Give me something measurable here.)



I have not heard any hard evidence or facts from you to suggest that this is a guaranteed good contract for the Leafs either. I've heard some suggestions that Kessel's career is on the same trajectory as superstar Daniel Sedin (however, it could not possibly be on the same trajectory as Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez, or Brad Richards). I have heard that his production should go up because players generally peak between 27 and 30. This is not evidence.

There is nothing measurable to give. The only measure you will have is in 8 years time (or less if things go badly), and you can look back on what happened.

quote:

There still seems to be a stigma surrounding Phil Kessel. It's almost like you guys don't believe that he can keep going at this pace. What in the world would suggest that to you???? Like, really? Did you see the game he played last night?? I thought he was First Star (I was disappointed they didn't even give him a Star). He was buzzing around the net all night long. He had a hattrick the game before that. He hasn't recorded a point in only two games this season. He is the go-to guy in Toronto - a team with one of the best PPs in the game. What is the world would suggest to you that Kessel "won't" keep up this production??



Again.... I have no doubt that Kessel will keep this production up. I don't think he will exceed it in any appreciable way over the life
of this contract. Is PPG enough to justify 8M a year?

quote:

So, if you don't like this contract so much. What would you say Kessel's "value" is?? Would you have accepted 7 million over 7 years?? Like, are we splitting hairs now? He is - and is going to be over the next 3-4 seasons - going to be a Top Player in the game. Isn't that what we pay our big players for?? Isn't that his value?? Where would you put his value??



Is 7M vs 8M "splitting hairs" in a cap restriction world? I had put his value at 6.5-7M on a long term deal. 8 years is fine for terms, he will still be young when the contract is complete.
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1037 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  15:51:11  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Joshua, the Sedin sisters always score big in the regular season.

Lets compare the Sedins ( both of them ) to one kessel in a 7 game playoff series againist the same big bad Bruins....wonder what happened ?????

2011...the Sedins...( both of them together ) vs Boston.....scores 3 goals and added 2 assists......

2013....kessel ( only 1 of him of course ) vs Boston....scores 4 goals and added 2 assists.....

Now theres a true test playing againist a tough , tough team and facing Z. Chara ALL GAME LONG...has they all did !!!!!

So in conclusion.....in the same circumstances....1 Phil kessel ( all by himself ).....out-scores 2....yes, 2 Sedins together.....surprise, surprise....

That my friends is why kessel gets 8 million per.....and the Sedins don`t......kessels deserves it... ( as I said before, compared to other players salaries )..........in reality, I don`t believe any sport player is worth the $$$$$ they collect, but this is the world we live in.

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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1872 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  16:05:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Crock, you came to the discussion late and probably didn't notice I defended Kessel and his 8 million a year on the last page. I mentioned it was not a home town discount and also put it out there that 8 years at the max value was a team risk, which slanted it to Kessel's favour. I just thought the comparison to the Sedins was a valid arguement against Kessel's newly signed contract.

However, the Sedin's did not have statistical equal seasons for there first 6 years as you suggested. Henricks stats matured sooner than Daniel. Daniel had superior scoring stats, but Henricks ppg and playmaking skills are and have been superior to both Daniel and Kessel. He is extremly durable and has an ironman playing streak 500+ games long. The fact both players matured later has as much to do with where they played and the team they played for as Kessel's situation does. It was by there 4th year that both were elevated to the top line with Naslund that there ppg increased. This was at 24-25. Kessel has had the advantage of playing in Toronto for strong offensive teams primarily on the top line with decent offensive players at a younger age. There is as strong an evidence that Kessel has peaked, as there is the the Sedins will maintain a ppg pace, exceeding Kessel's ppg pace for a few more years.

I brought up the first 10 games because as of now Henrick is outpacing Kessel at ppg, is the better playmaker and is playing in a more contributing position than Kessel, while making less than Kessel's future contract value. Henrick on the open market is worth more than Kessel per year, while Daniel, who plays a more similar role and is keeping pace with Kessel, is of closer value, but neither will garner max value while playing together and likely neither will be signed near full value for 8 years like Kessel.

Edited by - JOSHUACANADA on 10/27/2013 16:10:27
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1037 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  16:12:26  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Sorry, was going to add, just to clarify a bit more......since there is only one kessel....lets add the Sedins points together and share them equally for them both ( since there are 2 of them

Indididually againist Boston in a 7 game playoff series......

kessel srores at a rate of......... .857 %

The Sedins score at................ . 357 % ( broken down of course )
OR.....has they did actually score in that series....

D . Sedin scores at a rate of ....... . . 428 %
H. Sedin ............... a rate of........ . 143 %

Nothing to argue about here....Chara played for both Boston teams.....both Boston teams were great....both Boston teams went to the cup final........but only 1 player stepped it up.....and his last name WASN`T Sedin.

Its funny Nuxfan, in an earlier blog you referred to the Sedins as Superstars......and to kessel has a star.....I guess these numbers I just posted proves that you have the Super in the wrong p[lace.
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  16:40:05  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Nuxfan (not Alex) - you've come up with some questionable examples. Perry, Getzlaf, Staal, Ovechkin, Malkin - all still too young to decide "which year" was their best.

In S. Gomez and B. Richards - you just came up with the absolute worst contracts in the League. It's a pretty easy counter-argument to say "well, if SCOTT GOMEZ is worth 10 million; then Phil Kessel is EASILY worth 8 million..."

So, Thank you for that. :)

Even putting that aside - like I already said - that tends to be the exception rather than the rule. MOST players tend to peak between 27-30.

Is it 100% for sure that Kessel's production will increase? No. But, given the trends, it's a very good bet.

And gentlemen - let's be clear. Kessel is better than either Sedin; and would be subsequently more valuable of the FA market. Which, is exactly what he is - that's exactly what happened.

How much are you willing to pay the Sedins when their contact expires?

Gosh. I feel like Kessel's agent or something. I'm not a Leafs' Fan. I have no affiliation. Nux and Alex - you guys obviously like the Canucks. Is it not possible that you are just refusing to listen to reason? Just because you don't like what you hear? Kessel's contract is exactly in keeping with the trends and the values set by other players in the nhl. Actually, he's under-valued IMHO.

But again, how much would you have paid Kessel?
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  16:55:11  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The other thing that you seem to be avoiding - is that ANY OTHER TEAM in the NHL would have offered Phil Kessel that same contract. (Obviously considering their Cap Space).

Kessel wouldn't have lasted a week on the FA market. The Leafs locked him up throughout his Prime. That's a great move by a club that seems to be moving in the right direction - lock up your assets. Build around them.

Joshua - I'm sorry man. But your argument about H. Sedin being "more valuable because he has better playmaking abilities in a more contributibal position." ...is bizarre. I disagree that Cs are worth more than RWs. I used to think like you - but turn it around. Wouldn't it be just as easy to say "Well, there are fewer good RWs out there - therefore RWs are more valuable." (I could name 50 strong Cs out there. It would be much harder to do that for RWs.)

For the record, the best RW in the game today is Ovi. Followed by Kessel and Perry. Am I wrong?



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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3581 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  19:55:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by The Duke

Sorry, was going to add, just to clarify a bit more......since there is only one kessel....lets add the Sedins points together and share them equally for them both ( since there are 2 of them

Indididually againist Boston in a 7 game playoff series......

kessel srores at a rate of......... .857 %

The Sedins score at................ . 357 % ( broken down of course )
OR.....has they did actually score in that series....

D . Sedin scores at a rate of ....... . . 428 %
H. Sedin ............... a rate of........ . 143 %

Nothing to argue about here....Chara played for both Boston teams.....both Boston teams were great....both Boston teams went to the cup final........but only 1 player stepped it up.....and his last name WASN`T Sedin.

Its funny Nuxfan, in an earlier blog you referred to the Sedins as Superstars......and to kessel has a star.....I guess these numbers I just posted proves that you have the Super in the wrong p[lace.



Of course, in Duke-land its perfectly natural to measure an entire career by the performance over a 7 game stretch... never mind compare 2 careers over 2 different 7 game stretches in different situations and 3 years removed...

One important distinction that you failed to mention Duke - the Sedin's were in the STANLEY CUP FINALS, while Kessel was playing in his first playoff round in 5 years. Other things you fail to mention:

- during that 2011 playoff run, the Sedin's were nearly PPG - even with the scoring drought they had in the finals. In the SJ series alone the Sedin's combined for 15 points in 5 games. Do VAN even make it to the finals without them?

- Over their careers there are both about 0.66 PPG through the playoffs. I thought about looking at Kessel's performance in the playoffs, but frankly his sample size is too small to be relevant.

When Kessel leads his team to the SCF, then we can start comparing performances. Until then, I know where the "super" belongs.

Edited by - nuxfan on 10/27/2013 20:03:54
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3581 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  20:01:50  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
quote:

Nuxfan (not Alex) - you've come up with some questionable examples. Perry, Getzlaf, Staal, Ovechkin, Malkin - all still too young to decide "which year" was their best.

In S. Gomez and B. Richards - you just came up with the absolute worst contracts in the League. It's a pretty easy counter-argument to say "well, if SCOTT GOMEZ is worth 10 million; then Phil Kessel is EASILY worth 8 million..."



Getzlaf et al are all in their "prime years" as per your age definitions. By your measure, we've seen all we need to see, in the next 2 years they'll all hit 30 and start predictably trending downwards into oblivion. Unless you think they're going to smash through some new performance barrier this year or next, they will be all the proof you need.

Keep in mind, these are the ones I looked into by thinking about it for literally a single minute. I suspect that further investigation would turn up quite a few more examples.

quote:

The other thing that you seem to be avoiding - is that ANY OTHER TEAM in the NHL would have offered Phil Kessel that same contract. (Obviously considering their Cap Space).



How do you know this? How can you possibly know what every GM in the league would have done? No wonder you think you have so many "facts" supporting your "argument"

quote:

Kessel wouldn't have lasted a week on the FA market. The Leafs locked him up throughout his Prime. That's a great move by a club that seems to be moving in the right direction - lock up your assets. Build around them.



Locking up your assets is a great plan. Overpaying for your assets is not. There is a difference.

[quote]
Kessel's contract is exactly in keeping with the trends and the values set by other players in the nhl



OMG, finally. An actual argument from Crock worth consideration.

It is certainly possible (and likely) that Kessel's contract will be used as a measuring stick for other players who come up over the next few years. If Kessel is worth 8M a year, is Vanek now worth 9M or even 10M when he's up this year? He's done all that Kessel has (and hasn't), and has more points to boot. He's only 28 years old, and so is in his "prime production years" according to the Crock-model. Of note, he's also another player who enjoyed is best season before 27 (84 points when he was 23) and then underproduced every year after that.

I certainly worry about the Sedin's upcoming contract negotiations given Kessel's contract. Its within the realm of possibility that they will get 8M a year each (for less years), which would cause no shortage of problems for VAN cap-wise.

Edited by - nuxfan on 10/27/2013 20:21:08
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  23:35:40  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
How can you POSSIBLY say that Vanek is worth more than Kessel?

That might be the silliest thing I have read today. If you put Vanek in the same category as Kessel - then... I can't help you. I'm sorry, I've tried. But I cannot help you.

If you put Vanek in the same category as Kessel; then of course you don't understand why Kessel is getting 8 million. Vanek is not worth 8 million.

What we have been saying repeatedly - is that Kessel is a top-tier player. He is a Top 10 player in the league. He is a Superstar. He is a franchise player. Hence, worth 8 million.

Vanek is a strong second-tier player who is a Star. They are not comparable. To even have them in the same discussion is... disconcerting. Unproductive. Not even worth my time. I'm sorry.

By comparing Vanek to Kessel you've seriously undermined your hockey integrity. With all due respect. I think you need to rethink your Kessel opinion. Your "Kesselinion" if you will. What you just suggested - that Vanek is worth "more than" Kessel - is absolutely way off.

I apologize for my brevity; but there is no point in even discussing this. Kessel > Vanek. Everyone in this Forum knows that. Get that out of my house right now. Let's move on. Next!
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5787 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2013 :  23:38:25  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Man, I try to stay away from this and I still get dragged into it! Thanks Crock! Well, you're not the only one to mix nux and I up.

Duke, your posts are so silly that they make you look like an internet troll. Nux covered everything I would have if I deemed your posts worthy of a response, so consider yourself lucky he replied, because i'm not sure i'd have bothered.

Crock.... You are correct, most players prime could be proven to be 27-30. MOST. As nuxfan already pointed out, many don't follow that pattern. Here's a few others who i'd consider above avg players........J. Roenick, P. Kariya, K. Tkachuk, S. Fedorov, M. Recchi, T. Fleury, J. Nieuwendyk, R. Brind"amour, P. Bure.......I could find more if you want? Bure's a great example. His best statistical seasons were at age 22 and 23 (60 goals / 110 points and 60 goals / 107pts). Now, i'll admit, he went on to some nice numbers later in his career (ages 29 and 30 he had 58G/94Pts and 59G/92Pts respectively) as well, but this illustrates what nuxfan is saying about Kessel. There's just as much chance he's shown / is showing us his best years today as there is that he's gonna put up this 50 goal / 110 point season you so boldly predict! Please keep in mind, i'm not saying Kessel WON'T meet these lofty goals you have for him, i'm just saying that it's hard to use these predictions to justify a current deal!!!


How about this name? Mats Sundin, a long time Leaf, had his best statistical years before 27, however, he was also very consistent throughout his career, something that nuxfan touched on in regards to Kessel. He could very well stick around a PPG or slightly better or worse for most of his career? Again, not saying he can't or won't get even better statistically, but it's not as much of a no brainer as you make it out to seem.

I wanna get away from this but here's a good name for you. How about this guy named Wayne Gretzky. Pretty sure by 27 his best statistical years had come and gone. Now, I don't wanna dismiss how good he was throughout his career and even after 27, but i'm just going by your numbers, ages, etc and pointing out that statistically, his best years were earlier in his career. Same could be argued about Messier really, though at 28 he had a really good year before the drop off happened somewhat rapidly.

Anyway, there's some more names for you to chew on in regards to your claim.

Lastly, I want to remind you that this is only an opinion I, and others, have in regards to the deal Kessel signed. Again, imo, he's too one dimensional to justify that kind of term and dollar amount for my liking. I know many Leafers claim he's improved his two way game and other facets of it, however, when I watched highlights the other night, the commentators were quick to point out a mistake he made when his stick broke and how he left the play as the opposition rushed up ice. He raced to get a new stick and in turn the other team (can't recall which game if it was last night or the CBJ one maybe?) got an odd man rush and scored. Good, defensively responsible forwards don't make this mistake and the commentators (TSN?) made a point of saying that Kessel still has a lot of work to do on the other side of the puck!!! Maybe when you're watching, the "homer" play by play guys don't mention this sort of stuff as much, being that they're more or less part of the team! Let's face it, all our teams play by play crew are homers to some degree. Anyway, just wanted to add that to the mix as it supports my argument of Kessel still being very 1 dimensional. If you're gonna be a sniper, you'd better be sniping 40 and maybe even 50 every season if you aren't gonna help out on the other end!!!
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1872 Posts

Posted - 10/28/2013 :  06:28:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Pretty bold statements made about Kessel going on here. 1 that he is the most valuable RW in the game then everybody but Ovechkin, maybe Perry and then that he is more valuable that either of the Sedins, who both sport the awards for league leading in statistical categories. It would be more apt to compare him to 1 dimensional wingers who have yet to score 40 goals and yet to acheive greater than 85 points. I dont think you can win the arguement that he is more valuable than a 100 point player with excellent 2way play and one who has 6 plus years of elite play. Kessel has yet to put up elite stats outside of goals score over a 5 years period, counting this one and last years shortened season.

Remember I have no problem with the yearly contract value, just the term. He is getting elite pay for the max term, but has yet to put up truly elite stat numbers while having a contract similar to some proven 100+ players and proven 50 goal scorers. He just hasn't proven he is worth max term and value. I don't think every team in the league matches this offer, but I agree there are teams who would.
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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 10/28/2013 :  09:43:04  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Well thank you Joshua and Alex. I appreciate the discussion.

Joshua - I agree that NO player should be offered a contract that is over 5 years in length. That's actually something the owners wanted to enforce in the new CBA agreement during the lock-out. They didn't get it of course, and now here we are.

1. Any other team in the NHL would have snapped up Kessel on the FA market. Kessel and Kessel's agent wanted long-term. The Leafs didn't have a choice about the term. I fundamentally agree that NO contract should be over 5 years.

2. BUT, what the owners got instead was the compliance buy-out. In an absolute nightmare scenario - if Phil Kessel goes completely AWOL a la Scott Gomez - the Leafs buy out the last three years of the contract. I believe it's 50% of whatever is remaining. For a conglomerate like Maple Leaf Sports - I don't think they're worried about that kind of exposure at all.

Alex - Mr. Troll ;) - Like I said to your "Internet Troll Brother" Nuxfan - great. You've found some exceptions. That's great. It IS indeed interesting that Wayne Gretzky produced more when he was a member of the Coffee/Messier/Kurri/Anderson Oilers than as a King. Good stuff.

1. I'll even give you guys 10%. 10% of players produce more at ages other than 27-30. Or even 20%!! Heck, I'll give you Trolls 25% just because I'm feeling super generous. That STILL means that 75% score more during their Prime.

2. I said from the very beginning: "Nothing in life is for sure."
Same goes for Kessel. I'm not saying that it's for sure. I'm saying that Kessel is a good candidate to have a 110-point season at least once in his career. Good candidate. Good bet. Not "for sure". Even Sidney Crosby isn't a "for sure".

Kessel's back-checking. So, Kessel, on the PP, drifts into the slot and rips a prime opportunity SOG... except his stick shatters. Dubinsky picks up the puck. Barrels down the ice, scores a shortie off of an unbelievable slap shot from the circles.

How can Kessel be blamed for that? Dubinsky was being watched by two Leafs (Phaneuf and JVR I believe). He took an incredible shot. Bernier probably should have had it. But, come on. A broken stick. Even Crosby has broken sticks.

The announcers calling out Kessel is EXACTLY what I am talking about. Pierre McGuire ALWAYS puts down Kessel (while praising Rick Nash). All I've got to say about that is
A.) They are wrong.
B.) You're big boys. You can make up your mind for yourselves.
C.) That has happened throughout Kessel's entire career. Put down and doubted. I've read some interesting literature about Phil Kessel. And he is - along with Martin St.Louis - the most "stigmatized" player in the NHL.

That's why I'm on this thread trying to change your minds about it. It's not right. The announcers are confusing confidence with skill.

...and you may have noticed. When the Leafs were up 3-1 against the Pens with 1 minute left. Who was on the ice? Phil Kessel. Starting to branch off into other roles.

No, it isn't a perfect world - or a perfect contract perhaps. But Phil Kessel is a good bet. And Leafs' fans are going to be super happy having #81 sweaters on their back long-term.




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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3581 Posts

Posted - 10/28/2013 :  14:01:54  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
2. BUT, what the owners got instead was the compliance buy-out. In an absolute nightmare scenario - if Phil Kessel goes completely AWOL a la Scott Gomez - the Leafs buy out the last three years of the contract. I believe it's 50% of whatever is remaining. For a conglomerate like Maple Leaf Sports - I don't think they're worried about that kind of exposure at all.



Compliance buyouts end next summer, and they are a special form of buyout. Normal buyouts are at 66% of remaining salary spread over 2x the remaining years plus a penalty for cap circumvention, and they count against the cap. In your buyout example, Kessel would cost the Leafs 12M, and they would take a cap hit of roughly 4M in each of the next 3 years, and 2M in each of the following 3 years. I don't think the Leafs are interested in that kind of "exposure".

quote:

Alex - Mr. Troll ;) - Like I said to your "Internet Troll Brother" Nuxfan - great. You've found some exceptions. That's great. It IS indeed interesting that Wayne Gretzky produced more when he was a member of the Coffee/Messier/Kurri/Anderson Oilers than as a King. Good stuff.

1. I'll even give you guys 10%. 10% of players produce more at ages other than 27-30. Or even 20%!! Heck, I'll give you Trolls 25% just because I'm feeling super generous. That STILL means that 75% score more during their Prime.



Crock, you never answered my challenge - how many players that have hit PPG status prior to 27, go on to significantly increase their performance between the ages of 27 and 31?

Because that is what you are counting on with Kessel. I think we can all agree that if Kessel continues at his current clip, this deal will not be worth it in the end. To make this deal work, he has to go beyond what he's already done, probably hit the 100 point mark at least once.

So, how many can you find? I'm curious. I already gave you Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Anyone else? I think you will find that the number is shockingly small, likely quite a bit under 10%.

quote:

2. I said from the very beginning: "Nothing in life is for sure."
Same goes for Kessel. I'm not saying that it's for sure. I'm saying that Kessel is a good candidate to have a 110-point season at least once in his career. Good candidate. Good bet. Not "for sure". Even Sidney Crosby isn't a "for sure".



Some things are for sure - for exmaple, Kessel will collect 8M in each of the next 8 seasons, regardless of what he does or how many points he gets.

quote:

Kessel's back-checking. So, Kessel, on the PP, drifts into the slot and rips a prime opportunity SOG... except his stick shatters. Dubinsky picks up the puck. Barrels down the ice, scores a shortie off of an unbelievable slap shot from the circles.



Broken sticks happen all the time, no blame. But what the player does after the broken stick? A defensively minded forward would skate back right away and assume a defensive stance once the puck was lost in the offensive zone, or would go to the bench and get off the ice in exchange for another player. Kessel stalls, waits to see what will happen, then when the play is leaving in front of him he skates back to the bench to get a new stick, taking himself completely out of the play, and then finds himself behind the play when the shot goes in.

Kessel's fault? No, it was a great shot and as you say there were other players that could have done more. Did Kessel try to do anything substantial to prevent it? No.


Edited by - nuxfan on 10/28/2013 14:03:29
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5787 Posts

Posted - 10/28/2013 :  15:17:21  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
Joshua - I agree that NO player should be offered a contract that is over 5 years in length. That's actually something the owners wanted to enforce in the new CBA agreement during the lock-out. They didn't get it of course, and now here we are.
1. Any other team in the NHL would have snapped up Kessel on the FA market. Kessel and Kessel's agent wanted long-term. The Leafs didn't have a choice about the term. I fundamentally agree that NO contract should be over 5 years.




Hey, don't look now, but we agree on something! Lol. Not the "any other team" part, but the 5 year max part!

quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

2. BUT, what the owners got instead was the compliance buy-out. In an absolute nightmare scenario - if Phil Kessel goes completely AWOL a la Scott Gomez - the Leafs buy out the last three years of the contract. I believe it's 50% of whatever is remaining. For a conglomerate like Maple Leaf Sports - I don't think they're worried about that kind of exposure at all.

Ummm, correct me if i'm wrong and i may just be as i didn't follow the CBA stuff too closely, but didn't each team get 2 compliance buyouts? And don't both have to be used by the end of next summer? And didn't Toronto already use their two on Komisarek and Grabovski? Unless it's another buyout situation i'm missing that you speak of, the Leafs are stuck with this deal unless they can trade it or the rules change?
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

Alex - Mr. Troll ;) - Like I said to your "Internet Troll Brother" Nuxfan - great. You've found some exceptions. That's great. It IS indeed interesting that Wayne Gretzky produced more when he was a member of the Coffee/Messier/Kurri/Anderson Oilers than as a King. Good stuff.

1. I'll even give you guys 10%. 10% of players produce more at ages other than 27-30. Or even 20%!! Heck, I'll give you Trolls 25% just because I'm feeling super generous. That STILL means that 75% score more during their Prime.


Keep in mind, i only looked at a handful of players i considered to be above avg. If you're looking at EVERY player to play the game and are going to tell me some 3rd liner averaged 30pts instead of 25 between 27-30 i'm not gonna buy into your numbers. What i'm getting at is it's only fair to guage guys who had significant numbers and significant peak years and when they occured. I don't have the info in front of me, nor the time or desire to research it but your 25% "Troll generosity" could still be questioned. It might be less i suppose, but it could also be more.
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

2. I said from the very beginning: "Nothing in life is for sure."
Same goes for Kessel. I'm not saying that it's for sure. I'm saying that Kessel is a good candidate to have a 110-point season at least once in his career. Good candidate. Good bet. Not "for sure". Even Sidney Crosby isn't a "for sure".

I disagree. And because you like stats, i'll give you this....
Players who've scored over 100 points since 2000/2001:
1. D. Alfredsson 2005/06 - 103pts
2. N. Backstrom 2009/10 - 101pts
3. S. Crosby (4 times) - only once over 110pts (120)
4. P. Forsberg 2002/2003 - 106pts
5. D. Heatley 2005/05 & 06/07 - 103/105pts
6. J. Jagr 2000/01 7 05/06 - 121pts & 123pts
7. V. Lecavalier 2006/07 - 108pts
8. E. Malkin (3 times) - only once over 110pts (113)
9. M. Naslund 2002/03 - 104pts
10. A. Ovechkin (4 times) - only once over 110 (112 though did have 110 as well)
11. Joe Sakic 2000/01 - 118pts
12. D. Sedin 2010/11 - 104pts
13. H. Sedin 2009/10 - 112pts
14. M. St. Louis 2006/07 - 102
15. J. Thornton 2005/06 & 06/07 - 125pts & 114pts
Only 7 of these guys have hit 110 or more too, so personally, i'd take that bet that you call "good". Heck, OV and Malkin's career bests are only 112 and 113 and you think it's a "good bet" that Kessel will hit 110 one day? Good for my side, not so much for you. I hope you don't go to Vegas much if you like that bet!


quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

Kessel's back-checking. So, Kessel, on the PP, drifts into the slot and rips a prime opportunity SOG... except his stick shatters. Dubinsky picks up the puck. Barrels down the ice, scores a shortie off of an unbelievable slap shot from the circles.

How can Kessel be blamed for that? Dubinsky was being watched by two Leafs (Phaneuf and JVR I believe). He took an incredible shot. Bernier probably should have had it. But, come on. A broken stick. Even Crosby has broken sticks.


It was a nice shot (wrist shot actually), absolutely. However, keep in mind i'm just using this as an example, Dubinsky could have threaded the puck through on the two on one to Letestu instead of shooting. Again, this is just theoretically. Where you see 2 Leafs watching Dubinsky is beyond me. The Dman who's back (Franson i believe?) does a good job taking away the pass and Dubinsky beats Bernier short side with a nice shot. JVR is floating back in looking disinterested and Kessel, admittedly husselling, took a very poor route via his bench to get new lumber! Bad move. Hard to argue it really. If he had gone straight back and defended the body of Letestu, it would have left Franson to be able to close in on Dubinsky and take away the shot as it would have been a standard 2 on 2. Watch again if you so please - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19o9Vc-8Jrg&list=TL8FVlRcbmVlSGkIEiCvHgfu6M9sfDsuH0


quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight
The announcers calling out Kessel is EXACTLY what I am talking about. Pierre McGuire ALWAYS puts down Kessel (while praising Rick Nash). All I've got to say about that is
A.) They are wrong.
B.) You're big boys. You can make up your mind for yourselves.
C.) That has happened throughout Kessel's entire career. Put down and doubted. I've read some interesting literature about Phil Kessel. And he is - along with Martin St.Louis - the most "stigmatized" player in the NHL.

That's why I'm on this thread trying to change your minds about it. It's not right. The announcers are confusing confidence with skill.

There may be the problem, i actually don't mind McGuire! Lol, i know i'm in the minority, but just saying. And it's not just him i've heard stuff from so either everyone has this hate-on for Kessel that you speak of, or mayber there is a little work needed on his 2 way game???

Crock, for the last time (hopefully), i don't hate Kessel or what he brings to the table. I don't think this is one of the worst contracts ever or anything to that regard. I don't even think it's the worst the Leafs have (ahem, Clarkson) or not even necessarily close. In fact, i even said that the Leafs kinda had to sign him as they'd have lost him for nothing had they not. Sorta forced their hand somewhat. So, IMO, Kessel won this deal. He is going to get 8M per season for the next 8 years!!! WHAT IF, he gets lazy and uninterested and becomes a 60pt guy cashing his paycheque and absorbing the boos that would follow? Very unlikely, but just using it as an example. He's guaranteed that money, the Leafs are guaranteed very little. Kessel wins.

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CrockOShight
Top Prospect



90 Posts

Posted - 10/28/2013 :  17:00:05  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
ROFL.

This debate is ridiculous.

Nuxfan, what am I supposed to do? Find players who have hit PPG status before 27, only to increase it later on?

Pavel Datysuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Martin St. Louis, Jarome Iginla, Ray Whitney, Steve Yzerman, Mark Messier, Jari Kurri, Gordie Howe, Mike Bossy (check out HIS career stats for a treat btw), Marcel Dionne, Jaromir Jagr, Teemu Selanne, Daniel Alfredsson, Brendan Shanahan, Brett Hull (ish), Bobby Hull(!), Phil Esposito, Keith Tkachuk, Mike Modano, Ron Francis, Rod Brind'Amour, Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, Mark Recchi, Ray Bourque, Bryan Trottier, Guy Lafleur, Maurice Richard(!), Dave Andreychuk, Peter Stastny, Alex Kovalev, Al MacInnis, Larry Murphy, Patrik Elias, Sergei Federov, Pierre Turgeon, Michel Goulet, Mats Sundin (why not include him on this list? After 27 he had 8 straight seasons with over 70 points. Not his "best" season. But. 8 straight seasons with 70+ points. I HOPE that Kessel achieves that.).

So, that's a couple of players.

We'll have to see about:
Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Evengi Malkin, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Taylor Hall, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf... &&&& of course... Phil Kessel.

I think it's a good bet. I think that Kessel is worth every penny.

--

I like that Kessel went over to the bench to get a stick. What are you going to do with no stick? I hate watching players with no stick skating with their wrists low to the ice like it's intimidating or effective or anything like that. No stick = useless. Get off the ice / get a stick. Anyway, like I said, it wasn't like there was a "major" threat there. It's a Power Play. Geez. You guys are critical (of only Kessel it seems). WWDSD? (What would Daniel Sedin do?)

--

I'll give you one more reason why The Leafs "win" this contract. Jersey sales. #81 Kessel jerseys are FLYING off the shelves.

--

Good night boys. Matt Moulson just scored. I'm going back to watching hockey. LOL.





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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3581 Posts

Posted - 10/28/2013 :  17:40:39  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

ROFL.

This debate is ridiculous.

Nuxfan, what am I supposed to do? Find players who have hit PPG status before 27, only to increase it later on?

Pavel Datysuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Martin St. Louis, Jarome Iginla, Ray Whitney, Steve Yzerman, Mark Messier, Jari Kurri, Gordie Howe, Mike Bossy (check out HIS career stats for a treat btw), Marcel Dionne, Jaromir Jagr, Teemu Selanne, Daniel Alfredsson, Brendan Shanahan, Brett Hull (ish), Bobby Hull(!), Phil Esposito, Keith Tkachuk, Mike Modano, Ron Francis, Rod Brind'Amour, Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, Mark Recchi, Ray Bourque, Bryan Trottier, Guy Lafleur, Maurice Richard(!), Dave Andreychuk, Peter Stastny, Alex Kovalev, Al MacInnis, Larry Murphy, Patrik Elias, Sergei Federov, Pierre Turgeon, Michel Goulet, Mats Sundin (why not include him on this list? After 27 he had 8 straight seasons with over 70 points. Not his "best" season. But. 8 straight seasons with 70+ points. I HOPE that Kessel achieves that.).

So, that's a couple of players.



I see you just randomly threw a few players onto the page and hoped for the best. A few simple spot checks:

- Forsberg: had his best year at age 23, with 116 points. Never matched it again, although he was a consistent PPG performer through his career.

- Shanahan: had his best year at age 24 with 102 points. Never broke 90 points again.

- Rod Brind'Amour: best season at 24 with 97 points. Never broke 90 again.

Thanks for playing, we have some parting gifts in the back.

To summarize, not many have achieved it, and I think the odds are against Kessel achieving it as well. He has a slim chance of significantly increasing his performance (ie, hitting 100+ points), and he has a slim chance of regressing to 60-70 points in the next few years. He is more likely to hover around PPG for his peak years - which is still an admirable feat and would make him valuable. If he can add some intangibles to his skill set, or win a Conn Smythe enroute to a Stanley Cup victory for TOR, then I'll be the first to agree that he's worth his 8M. Until then, overpaid.

One thing I agree with - this debate is ridiculous. We can agree to disagree, and I'll leave it at that.
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1037 Posts

Posted - 10/28/2013 :  18:12:41  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Alex, you can call my post silly if you want but those numbers against the bruins are correct. I picked that segment of hockey because it was a situation where a players true grit really shows.......it was a tough series for all involved and showed a players true colours when it was all on the line.

The sedins showed what they are all about in a real tough series.....Boston ain't San Jose...what the hell has San Jose won ?....ever ?.....

When the chips were down they choked.....played like p****s...this is why the Canucks will never win a cup with them....and you know it.

Don't give me this what has kessel won ?...the leafs are just building a great team....he hasn't had his shot yet....ask this question in 5 years or so......the sedins had their shot and got pushed around like rag dolls.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1872 Posts

Posted - 10/28/2013 :  18:30:10  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan

quote:
Originally posted by CrockOShight

ROFL.

This debate is ridiculous.

Nuxfan, what am I supposed to do? Find players who have hit PPG status before 27, only to increase it later on?

Pavel Datysuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Martin St. Louis, Jarome Iginla, Ray Whitney, Steve Yzerman, Mark Messier, Jari Kurri, Gordie Howe, Mike Bossy (check out HIS career stats for a treat btw), Marcel Dionne, Jaromir Jagr, Teemu Selanne, Daniel Alfredsson, Brendan Shanahan, Brett Hull (ish), Bobby Hull(!), Phil Esposito, Keith Tkachuk, Mike Modano, Ron Francis, Rod Brind'Amour, Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, Mark Recchi, Ray Bourque, Bryan Trottier, Guy Lafleur, Maurice Richard(!), Dave Andreychuk, Peter Stastny, Alex Kovalev, Al MacInnis, Larry Murphy, Patrik Elias, Sergei Federov, Pierre Turgeon, Michel Goulet, Mats Sundin (why not include him on this list? After 27 he had 8 straight seasons with over 70 points. Not his "best" season. But. 8 straight seasons with 70+ points. I HOPE that Kessel achieves that.).

So, that's a couple of players.



I see you just randomly threw a few players onto the page and hoped for the best. A few simple spot checks:

- Forsberg: had his best year at age 23, with 116 points. Never matched it again, although he was a consistent PPG performer through his career.

- Shanahan: had his best year at age 24 with 102 points. Never broke 90 points again.

- Rod Brind'Amour: best season at 24 with 97 points. Never broke 90 again.

Thanks for playing, we have some parting gifts in the back.

To summarize, not many have achieved it, and I think the odds are against Kessel achieving it as well. He has a slim chance of significantly increasing his performance (ie, hitting 100+ points), and he has a slim chance of regressing to 60-70 points in the next few years. He is more likely to hover around PPG for his peak years - which is still an admirable feat and would make him valuable. If he can add some intangibles to his skill set, or win a Conn Smythe enroute to a Stanley Cup victory for TOR, then I'll be the first to agree that he's worth his 8M. Until then, overpaid.

One thing I agree with - this debate is ridiculous. We can agree to disagree, and I'll leave it at that.

Pretty much what I expected. 100 point players in the modern day are pretty special. You don't usually see a player come into the league for 5 or 6 years and up there point totals after that by 20-30% without other contributing factors. I am not saying Kessel is a career 70-80 point player/ 30-40 goal player, but to see him all of a sudden join the elite 50 goal / 100 point player crowd would take other contributing factors. Like say an Elite centerman of the Henrick Sedin, Spezza, Getzlaf, Malkin, Crosby variety, which the Leafs currently lack. If the Leafs bag or develop one of those then your cooking.
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