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Maverick9
Top Prospect



Canada
16 Posts

Posted - 12/21/2013 :  20:22:00  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
If you don't like GAA then lets go ahead and look at advanced statistics. (also, my key point was made using goal differential, not that it matters now)

http://www.extraskater.com/player/145/andrew-ference

Looking at his advanced stats make me more convinced ference is a middling player.

His fenwick for % is lower than his teams fenwick for % this year, last year, and last years playoffs. Basically, he has always had a weaker fenwick stat then the rest of his teammates.

Same story with the corsi. When he is on the ice, his team gets outshot worse than when he isn't on the ice. His corsi relative % is -1% this season and it was -3.3% last season.

Now addressing the intangibles. Ference is a decent captain. However, Horcoff was a better captain. Like Joshua said, Horcoff was the medias fall guy and somehow his relationship with them worked. The oilers were unified under horcoff, you never saw a new player in the league like yakupov whining about his ice time when horcoff wore the C.

Horcoff may have been terribly overpaid, but when you look at the oilers cap situation, there was no need to trade him from a financial standpoint. Edmonton currently has about $7M in cap space. Horcoffs $5.5M cap hit and $4M salary would have fit in there and still left some cap room to spare.

I guess we can pin that one on MacT though. Maybe one of his biggest mistakes so far?
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Maverick9
Top Prospect



Canada
16 Posts

Posted - 12/21/2013 :  20:25:03  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

My only issue with Ference being suggested us I don't recall anyone making these claims that are being suggested? Who claimed him as a defensive "savior"? Maybe I missed it but I don't recall that? I do remember some saying he's a good start to improvements on the back end and will help some of the youngsters but a savior?



Eakins had said "Andrew Ference will UNITE us." Not that that proves anything towards him being a savior. But you would expect your brand new captain to be a little bit of a savior, wouldn't you?
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Guest4088
( )

Posted - 12/21/2013 :  22:09:49  Reply with Quote
don't get me wrong, I actually like ferrence and thought it was a good move. you cant bring in 6 top dmen all at once, you need to start somewhere and he is a more than decent start I guess.
how about dallas Eakins the coach as most overrated? if everybody on the team is struggling, the common link is the coach. But that goes back to management....why bring in a rookie coach to coach a bunch of young players? Didn't make sense to me when he was hired and certainly doesn't make sense now that they are s***ting the bed again this year. Time for another high draft pick next year again.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5692 Posts

Posted - 12/22/2013 :  02:34:37  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Maverick9

quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

My only issue with Ference being suggested us I don't recall anyone making these claims that are being suggested? Who claimed him as a defensive "savior"? Maybe I missed it but I don't recall that? I do remember some saying he's a good start to improvements on the back end and will help some of the youngsters but a savior?



Eakins had said "Andrew Ference will UNITE us." Not that that proves anything towards him being a savior. But you would expect your brand new captain to be a little bit of a savior, wouldn't you?



Mav....Absolutely, I'd expect better from Ference, which is what I think your whole point is. However, the thread is asking for the MOST over-rated player in the NHL, not just a guy who's not performing up to expectations. If it was "player (or FA signing) who's disappointed compared to expectations this season" then I'd agree Ference is right up there. I'm pretty sure this is more along the lines of what you are talking about with Ference. I can't see how you would possibly think he was more over rated than some of the guys who've been mentioned?
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5692 Posts

Posted - 12/22/2013 :  02:37:16  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4088
how about dallas Eakins the coach as most overrated? if everybody on the team is struggling, the common link is the coach. But that goes back to management....why bring in a rookie coach to coach a bunch of young players? Didn't make sense to me when he was hired and certainly doesn't make sense now that they are s***ting the bed again this year. Time for another high draft pick next year again.



Wow, hadn't thought of Eakins! He def was highly touted around the league. I have to admit, I was disappointed that the Canucks lost out on this guy. Def hasn't worked out just yet in Edmonton. Have to see how good he is going forward!
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3562 Posts

Posted - 12/22/2013 :  20:25:31  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116
I have to admit, I was disappointed that the Canucks lost out on this guy.



Its not clear that the Canucks lost out at all... perhaps they said no thanks.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5692 Posts

Posted - 12/22/2013 :  21:18:09  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan

quote:
Originally posted by Alex116
I have to admit, I was disappointed that the Canucks lost out on this guy.



Its not clear that the Canucks lost out at all... perhaps they said no thanks.



I can't recall exactly the details or what was announced, but I though Eakins had said no to Vancouver? Regardless of what happened, at the time I was hoping he'd end up here. Then again, I was no at all on the "hire Torts" side and yet I'm happy with him thus far. Of course, it's still very early.
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Guest6018
( )

Posted - 12/23/2013 :  12:05:20  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Maverick9

If you don't like GAA then lets go ahead and look at advanced statistics. (also, my key point was made using goal differential, not that it matters now)

http://www.extraskater.com/player/145/andrew-ference

Looking at his advanced stats make me more convinced ference is a middling player.

His fenwick for % is lower than his teams fenwick for % this year, last year, and last years playoffs. Basically, he has always had a weaker fenwick stat then the rest of his teammates.

Same story with the corsi. When he is on the ice, his team gets outshot worse than when he isn't on the ice. His corsi relative % is -1% this season and it was -3.3% last season.

Now addressing the intangibles. Ference is a decent captain. However, Horcoff was a better captain. Like Joshua said, Horcoff was the medias fall guy and somehow his relationship with them worked. The oilers were unified under horcoff, you never saw a new player in the league like yakupov whining about his ice time when horcoff wore the C.

Horcoff may have been terribly overpaid, but when you look at the oilers cap situation, there was no need to trade him from a financial standpoint. Edmonton currently has about $7M in cap space. Horcoffs $5.5M cap hit and $4M salary would have fit in there and still left some cap room to spare.

I guess we can pin that one on MacT though. Maybe one of his biggest mistakes so far?

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Maverick9
Top Prospect



Canada
16 Posts

Posted - 12/23/2013 :  17:49:09  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

Mav....Absolutely, I'd expect better from Ference, which is what I think your whole point is. However, the thread is asking for the MOST over-rated player in the NHL, not just a guy who's not performing up to expectations. If it was "player (or FA signing) who's disappointed compared to expectations this season" then I'd agree Ference is right up there. I'm pretty sure this is more along the lines of what you are talking about with Ference. I can't see how you would possibly think he was more over rated than some of the guys who've been mentioned?



Alex, I truly believe Ference is up there for most overrated in the league. I do realize he's a tough sell though and I can't add anything else that would change peoples minds
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Guest4088
( )

Posted - 12/23/2013 :  19:46:45  Reply with Quote
In regards to horcoff, I found that once the oilers got all the top draft picks they became a team for the future. They totally gave up on the present and guys like horcoff, smyth, hemsky were just forgot about as they weren't part of that future dynasty. management always talked about bringing in character guys to help support/teach these guys when in reality, they had great character guys (horcoff and smyth) already in the dressing room. those guys have gone to war and they play in the trenches...they aren't highly skilled guys but guys who work their butts off and will sacrifice themselves for the good of the team. The culture around the team became one of gaining experience instead of accountability. It was ok to lose as long as they learned from it. Compare that to young guys like Crosby and toews in their early days, they HATED to lose. Crosby was so paasionate he was often called a whiner. But they never ever used the excuse they were too young and in time they will win. Correct me if im wrong but I think both those guys won the cups while still on entry level contracts. I never got that sense of accountability or urgency or win now at all cost attitude from the oilers players and-or management, and hence why you never see improvement from the oilers year in year out because the culture was its ok to lose. now, all they have is a bunch of premadonna losers. So at this point I think the group of young high draft picks collectively are overrated. Kudos to edmontons PR and marketing guys as every year I seem to buy into the hype of the oilers....until they hit the ice that is!
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5692 Posts

Posted - 12/23/2013 :  21:55:37  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Maverick9

quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

Mav....Absolutely, I'd expect better from Ference, which is what I think your whole point is. However, the thread is asking for the MOST over-rated player in the NHL, not just a guy who's not performing up to expectations. If it was "player (or FA signing) who's disappointed compared to expectations this season" then I'd agree Ference is right up there. I'm pretty sure this is more along the lines of what you are talking about with Ference. I can't see how you would possibly think he was more over rated than some of the guys who've been mentioned?



Alex, I truly believe Ference is up there for most overrated in the league. I do realize he's a tough sell though and I can't add anything else that would change peoples minds



Fair enough, I'm certainly not saying you're wrong, I just personally don't expect as much out of him perhaps as you and obviously the Oilers had hoped for. I mean, this guy wasn't exactly a top dman in Boston, moreso just a 3rd or 4th, no? Either way, I'm not going to say you're wrong in saying the Oilers were expecting A LOT more from him!
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5692 Posts

Posted - 12/23/2013 :  22:02:39  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4088

In regards to horcoff, I found that once the oilers got all the top draft picks they became a team for the future. They totally gave up on the present and guys like horcoff, smyth, hemsky were just forgot about as they weren't part of that future dynasty.



I don't entirely agree with the above quote. The Oilers didn't exactly give up on all of these guys, and in fact still have Smyth and Hemsky last I looked? From what I understand, Hemsky started the season on the 2nd line and has been more of a 3rd liner recently with Smyth. Either way, they're both still there so "giving up" on them isn't exactly accurate. You don't really expect Smyth to contribute to one of the top 2 lines at this point in his career do you?
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Guest4088
( )

Posted - 12/24/2013 :  00:57:32  Reply with Quote
I believe when macatavish took over he publicly stated he was gonna trade hemsky and smyth before the seasom, but then wasn't able to
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5692 Posts

Posted - 12/24/2013 :  09:06:06  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4088

I believe when macatavish took over he publicly stated he was gonna trade hemsky and smyth before the seasom, but then wasn't able to




I don't want to say "you're wrong", but I question the validity of this. It's extremely rare that a GM would say something like this publicly. I mean, why would he? It certainly doesn't help his chances of getting anything in return and if nothing else, alienates the player(s), unless they've asked for a trade? I don't recall the circumstances when MacT took over so I could be wrong, it just seems very doubtful.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1854 Posts

Posted - 12/24/2013 :  12:18:36  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest6018

quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

I totally agree with this. Might not be all Ferences fault, but he was hyped as the fix to Edmontons defensive faults, by showing the young guys how to do it. Horcoff being missed I also agree with. Team captain and guy the media threw the most shots at, but with him the Oilers record was much better than when he was out of the lineup or since his trade. It wasn't right that his contract became so bad that he had to go, because he was very important for the Oilers. How do you pay a player for things that don't show on the stats sheets and justify it to the media and casual fan.

quote:
Originally posted by Maverick9

I'd have to say Andrew Ference.

Edmonton was hyping him as a top pairing defenceman and the leader they needed to become a respectable franchise again. Needless to say, he hasn't lived up to the hype.

Edmonton went from allowing 2.79 goals per game in the lockout shortened season to allowing 3.43 goals per game this season!

Obviously some of the blame falls to Dubnyk but this Oilers team was supposed to contend for the playoffs this year and Ference was their biggest accquisition.

I think the Oil were better off with Horcoff as their captain, he wouldn't stand for some of the terrible habits the team has fallen into. Cheating defensively (Hall, Yakupov), complaining about ice time (Yakupov).

In my opinion, Ference benefited from playing in Boston. They played the perfect system for a guy with few offensive abilities to thrive in. Ference is exposed in Edmonton where they try to play a more skilled game and he simply isn't skilled enough to do thrive playing this way.





Leadership has little to do with point whoring, and more to do about attitude, unifying qualities, and doing the little things right every time. For those reasons Andrew Ference is the captain.

GAA is not only a deceiving stat, but also a dangerous metric to use to describe a one defensemen's contribution to the backend. The Oil were in a terrible slump during the start of the season. Arguably, the only reason they started winning is do to the compete level and insistence of doing the little things right demonstrated by Ference; furthermore, his grit and toughness started fuelling his team's confidence and drive to start winning as they can. This became no more apparent than when he stuck up for himself after a cheap pre-puck hit by Stempniak against Calgary. Ference responded in a way that not only asserted justice to the cheap hit thrown by Stempniak, but also fired up his team for a great comeback, which set the stage for further wins down that stretch of games.

He's overpaid, but they all are. In a sense though, his experience and consistency is well worth it, especially compared to Horcoff. Good riddance to Horcoff and his terribly overpriced salary. Ference earns that C every night...find someone else to pick on for this thread.





The only major problem with your argument here is the comment ("Arguably, the only reason they started winning is do to the compete level and insistence of doing the little things right demonstrated by Ference") I am wondering if you have seen some glimpse into the future. As of 3-4 days ago, fans were throwing jerseys on the ice in disgust at the lack of compete level being shown on the ice. To be honest, I am surprise Eakins hasn't thrown his Oilers tie and quit on the team like they have for long stretches this season. Both Ference and Eakins belong in this category.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1854 Posts

Posted - 12/24/2013 :  12:25:08  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

quote:
Originally posted by Guest4088

I believe when macatavish took over he publicly stated he was gonna trade hemsky and smyth before the seasom, but then wasn't able to




I don't want to say "you're wrong", but I question the validity of this. It's extremely rare that a GM would say something like this publicly. I mean, why would he? It certainly doesn't help his chances of getting anything in return and if nothing else, alienates the player(s), unless they've asked for a trade? I don't recall the circumstances when MacT took over so I could be wrong, it just seems very doubtful.



Yah, both statements were true, when MacT took the GM position. It was then made public just prior to opening night that both were in the now plan because anything you could get for either in a trade would not replace what they bring to the rink. I think the last statement was more directed at Hemsky, more than Smyth. To be honest I actually agree, but I think Hemsky would be better elsewhere, like NY or Ottawa, while Smyth is best suited playing out his final years on the one team he used to star on, retiring there and soon.
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1854 Posts

Posted - 12/24/2013 :  12:30:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The Oiler definitely gave up on Horcoff and Smyth a few years ago. When the New stars got drafted the filled up most of the Top 6 leaving Horcoff on the 3rd sometimes 4th line, yet during the most important points of the game he was the faceoff guy. Smyth rotated from the top 6 to the bottom 6 and when reunited on the top line with Horcoff for long stretches due to injuries, both had elevated stats that should have justified Oiler management and coaching to maintain them in the top 6 mix. Inexplicably both were sent back to bottom 6 minutes and the team struggled to finish the season 2-3 seasons in a row. All you gotta due is look at Edmonton's win/loss record with Horcoff in the Lineup and its record when he was not due to injury. He was very important to the Oilers.

Edited by - JOSHUACANADA on 12/24/2013 12:46:34
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Guest6165
( )

Posted - 12/26/2013 :  11:30:31  Reply with Quote
No one has mentioned Dion Phaneuf! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!!!
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Guest4088
( )

Posted - 12/26/2013 :  15:19:42  Reply with Quote
does anyone still consider phaneuf an elite defenseman anymore? maybe he was overrated a few years ago but over the last few years he is more mediocre and his so so is kind of expected. lets just hope the leafs don't re-sign him to anything over 4 mil....then he jumps right back to the overrated/paid category.
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