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 Ryan Kesler's Contract Value - Poll Editted Allow Anonymous Users Reply to This Topic...
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  09:34:46  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Poll Question:
Ryan Kesler has signed a 6 year- $30 million contract that will pay him $5 million a season through 2015/16 season. His most recent contract paid him $1.75 million a season.

Edit:

What is the fair market value for Ryan Kesler???


(Here is a link to his NHL player card)

http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8470616#&navid=nhl-keymatch

Choices:

Should be more than $5 million
$5.0 million
$4.5-$5.0 Million
$4.0-4.5 million
$3.5-$4.0 million
Less than $3.5 million

(Anonymous Vote)

Edited by - Beans15 on 03/22/2010 15:40:49

fat_elvis_rocked
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
899 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  10:43:09  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
IF Kesler keeps improving in the next 5 years as he has been in the last couple, and IF he maintains his status as a team leader, as evidenced by the assistant captainship, IF he continues to be the strong Selke like two-way player he is, and IF Vancouver continues to play well overall, it's the right money now, and perhaps a bargain in the future......IF.
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Hugh G. Rection
Rookie



165 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  11:25:54  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I'd pay $5 mill, I doubt he'd sign if I (the GM) offered 4... he could have easily gotten another offer sheet for 5 (or even higher) so Vancouver made the right play here. $5 mill isn't earth-shattering and Kesler is still a young and improving player, with more upside than alot of players who already make more than him.

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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4591 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  11:42:07  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
No way would I have signed for 6 years, and not that high . . . maybe a one year for that money, but I see a big econimc change happening, and guys like him (IF he keeps his current value) in the future might only get the 3.5 - 4 mil.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5791 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  12:28:16  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Tricky poll unless we're supposed to answer it as though we were in Gillis' position at this point in time. It would be different for every team as some wouldn't need his services as much as some others may.

Anyway, i picked the 4.5-5 million option. In a perfect world, i'd have gotten him lower and/or maybe shorter term.

I think the better poll question would have been simply "Is the Kesler deal at the money and term he received, a good or bad deal for the Canucks organization at this point in time"?
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  12:33:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

Tricky poll unless we're supposed to answer it as though we were in Gillis' position at this point in time. It would be different for every team as some wouldn't need his services as much as some others may.

Anyway, i picked the 4.5-5 million option. In a perfect world, i'd have gotten him lower and/or maybe shorter term.

I think the better poll question would have been simply "Is the Kesler deal at the money and term he received, a good or bad deal for the Canucks organization at this point in time"?



No, the question that I asked is the one I was curious about. It's simple and to the point.

What would you pay????

If you would like to get answers to your question, create a poll. I think it's a good and valid question.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5791 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  14:07:09  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
You're not really going to stoop so low as to be petty about this are you? Try reading my points once more and maybe you'll just realize that they're valid points to the question. Not every team would sign him to that sort of deal. If you were Pittsburgh's GM, you wouldn't pay him nearly that or even bother offering him a deal for that matter. SEE what i mean???

It's clear to me that you're throwing a loaded question out there so as to attempt to strengthen your stance on the contract he signed. You've already used it in a post in the other thread i might add. Really, it's that obvious.

BTW, if you don't wanna make the question more clear, i'd like to change my vote to less than 3.5. Reason being, if i were a GM, i'd offer Kesler 5 bucks and a 6" Subway Tuna Melt for his services and he'd take it because i'd be such a good GM. There, final answer.........
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  14:23:39  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
There is nothing loaded about the question at all. In fact, it is about a clear as it can be. Changing it would be loading it and favoring it to one way or the other.

The assumption is that if you are making the offer, you require his services. However, there is always a ceiling to these offers. What is yours?? What's is the reasonable deal??

That's all I am asking. Nothing loaded at all.

And if you can get Kesler to sign for a Fin and a Subway sammy, you should be telling Mike Gillis to move over, because there is a new sheriff in town.

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fat_elvis_rocked
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
899 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  15:08:50  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I'm kinda agreeing with Alex a bit here.

If I'm the GM of Pittsburgh? No of course not, he barely comes up on the radar. If I'm Toronto's GM, most likely the numbers change yet again. etc. etc.

If I'm the GM of Vancouver, might be just right at 5 mil.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  15:39:21  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I still don't think the question is loaded or tilted one way or the other. As discussed in the other Kesler thread, it seems to be the overwhelming majority that favor Kesler as a great hockey player. Many going as far as to say that he is a top 6 forward on every team in the NHL and in some cases as many as 1/2 the NHL teams would have a new #1 centre.

If he is such a hot commodity, any GM would be making an offer, no??

Although I can ultimately see the point if one wants to play like that. The ultimate goal is to get some kind of feel, based on the vote, as to what the market value of Ryan Kelser is.


I changed the poll question to now read "What is the fair market value for Ryan Kesler?"

Edited by - Beans15 on 03/22/2010 15:41:42
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Guest2247
( )

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  15:59:21  Reply with Quote
Beans, fair market value and what a player receives are 2 diffrent things. Most every NHL player is over-paid to a degree.The fact of the matter is if Vancouver wants to keep kesler they have to pay him 5 million per season or he will get the $$$ somewhere else, ITS THAT SIMPLE. He knows it, Gillis knows it and the fans deep down know it, players are in control, not the GM`s. Pay up or the players move on, theres no loyalty anymore. As for kesler getting 4.25 Million or 5 Million per season, WTF is the difference really ??
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fat_elvis_rocked
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
899 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  16:00:27  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Unfortunately, the edit might be too late, as Vancouver has shown what he is worth...to them. They did this before he got a chance to hit the free market.

Fair market value is just so damnably hard to quantify, for a player of this level, not top tier, but close. On some teams, lower second tier, on others, higher value.

Overall, I would put him at about 2 million less than the Canucks paid for him at this particular time, but for them, if he continues as he is, in 2 years, 5 million could be pretty cheap for a 35 goal, PPG, defensive specialist with leadership upside.

Edited by - fat_elvis_rocked on 03/22/2010 16:01:58
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3586 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  16:23:27  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Beans:
quote:
I still don't think the question is loaded or tilted one way or the other. As discussed in the other Kesler thread, it seems to be the overwhelming majority that favor Kesler as a great hockey player. Many going as far as to say that he is a top 6 forward on every team in the NHL and in some cases as many as 1/2 the NHL teams would have a new #1 centre.

If he is such a hot commodity, any GM would be making an offer, no??


No, not every team has a need right now for Kesler, or if they did it would be because they are moving one of their top 2 centres to make room for him (which is unlikely). Teams like PIT (3 deep at centre), BOS, PHI, CAR, LA, CHI are not looking to sign Kesler because they already have 2 solid lines and no cap room to sign Kesler.

We ultimately won't know what GM's are offering now, as he is signed and other teams likely won't comment on a player under contract.

fat elvis rocked:
quote:
Fair market value is just so damnably hard to quantify, for a player of this level, not top tier, but close. On some teams, lower second tier, on others, higher value.

Overall, I would put him at about 2 million less than the Canucks paid for him at this particular time, but for them, if he continues as he is, in 2 years, 5 million could be pretty cheap for a 35 goal, PPG, defensive specialist with leadership upside.


Agreed - its hard to quantify, and will vary from team to team. I read an op-ed piece on TSN today regarding the deal (can't remember the author). The end result was they may have overpaid a bit for Kesler, but for the Canucks it was made possible by the hometown discount that Burrows took. With Burrows and Kesler, the Canucks now have 2 of their top-6 forwards and best PK/defensive forwards for an avg of 3.5/year for both. A fair argument? You decide, it sounds good to me. The Canucks would not have been the only team with this situation, so I suspect that 1 or more other teams would have offered 5M/year or more for Kesler in the off season.

BTW Beans - do you think that the Oilers would have been one of the teams making a large RFA offer for Kesler? The have (or will have after the offseason purging) the cap room to do it, and the need.
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polishexpress
PickupHockey Pro



525 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  20:42:52  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
So what does the poll prove?
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3586 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2010 :  22:30:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
So what does the poll prove?


Nothing really...just that everyone has an opinion. And that Bean doesn't like Kesler
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4591 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  04:48:39  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
nuxfan - you made me laugh at least.

I voted for what I perceive as 'actual' worth . . . not the worth of a team like Toronto where they would overpay to start a solid nucleus and build around him; not a Vancouver price where they would also overpay because they are going for the cup and want to keep their winning nucleus together; and not the worth for deep teams like San Jose, Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh, that don't really need (well, everyone needs more good players, but you know what I'm saying) and can't afford a player of his value.

That's why in retrospect I consider another player with a similiar name, Kesel, as a good barometer for this level of player. Young, loads of potential, and they have already shown they are a pretty good second tier star. Why did Toronto overpay with two first rounders? Because those players are very, very difficult to get in this economy in the NHL, and they needed some glimmering piece to start the build upward again desperately. Although Vancouver is in an entirely different position, they also need a young tough scorer like Kesler to stay with them, as they need all those things to compliment the twins and maintain balanced scoring for a very competetive club.

So, Alex is right - fair market value is TOTALLY different for each club . . . but I think if you take away all money constraints, pretend you are an average team in the NHL with no cap issues, and take away all the other factors that might lower or put up the price required - then, IMHO, he's worth about 3.7 mil in this economy - for the next two years, with an option for the third.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  07:36:07  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I find it interesting that people can always find a way to twist anything at any time.

The questions is simple and very valid. Who cares what teams wants him or signed him or anything else. Every players in the NHL has a market value. Crosby and Ovechkin are at the top of that heap where any team would pay $10 million for either of them. Some players would be more valuable than others on certain teams, but that does not change the overall market value.

For example, if for some reasons both Malkin and Staal were to leave Pitt and they were in the market for a 2nd line centre, what would they pay to fill that spot with a top teir 2nd line centre??? $5 million?? $4 million?? $6 million??

The question is clear. It can be clouded with any various spins or hypotheticals. But every player has a market value. Without a market value, what is the argument for who is over or under paid?? Where is the bench mark?? How would arbitration be possible???

It's also interesting what the votes are showing to this point.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5791 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  09:19:14  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

I find it interesting that people can always find a way to twist anything at any time.

The questions is simple and very valid. Who cares what teams wants him or signed him or anything else. Every players in the NHL has a market value. Crosby and Ovechkin are at the top of that heap where any team would pay $10 million for either of them. Some players would be more valuable than others on certain teams, but that does not change the overall market value.

For example, if for some reasons both Malkin and Staal were to leave Pitt and they were in the market for a 2nd line centre, what would they pay to fill that spot with a top teir 2nd line centre??? $5 million?? $4 million?? $6 million??

The question is clear. It can be clouded with any various spins or hypotheticals. But every player has a market value. Without a market value, what is the argument for who is over or under paid?? Where is the bench mark?? How would arbitration be possible???

It's also interesting what the votes are showing to this point.



Yes Beans, you are 100% correct. Your question was in fact "simple and very valid", as far as the english language goes. However, most of us here can see exactly why you asked this question. It is an attempt to fuel your argument that he is overpaid. Fair enough, he's overpaid to some degree BUT, as many have tried to make clear to you, these contracts are in fact necessary at times for some teams and this is where it does actually matter as to which team pays him. I'd be horrified if you couldn't see this but i understand, as said, it's to further your stance on the Kelser contract.

Now that you've changed your question, it is far more valid. Asking us what we'd pay for Kesler if we were a GM was totally off line. If you can't see that it would matter immensely to know which GM and which teams current situation you implied, then i feel bad for you for lack of understanding.

As for the results of your poll which you find interesting, i'm not surprised in the least. It's very clear to me that there are far more non Canucks fans on here than Canuck fans. Add to that the hate that many have for Kesler and most things Canucks and you'd get the same results as asking "do you like Ryan Kesler".

BTW, as noted, i think he's worth around 4.5 as "fair market value" and yet i'm one of the biggest defenders of this contract as it was necessary for the Canucks to keep this guy happy and get him signed. The Canucks are trying to win the Cup THIS year and will continue to try for the next 4-5 when, depending on many factors, they may have to rebuild / retool. Therefore, they felt, and i agree, it was imperative to get him signed and it took perhaps a few hundred K more than they'd have preferred. That's not a huge dollar amount when looking at the contract on the whole.
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nux-suk
Top Prospect



41 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  10:10:42  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Alex, why cant you get it man??? People think he is not worth the money. Anytime somebody challenges your self appointed great wisdom, you revert back to Canuck/Kesler hate. What colour is the sky in your world?
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  12:07:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Here's the thing, I have been flogging this horse and arguing it 6 ways to Sunday. Was my poll intended to solidify my opinion?? Absolutely not, but I also do not expect you to believe me. If the votes would have come in, even at a 50/50 that the he is worth $5 million, I would have had some soul searching to do.


That being said, the Kesler deal is overpaid today and today only. If, in the next 2 seasons he continues what he did this year, then absolutely the deal is solid. If he does it for the next 6 years, then it's a steal.

However, coming from it at the persepective of an Oilers fan, potential contracts are dangerous and punishing at times. The Oilers have a ton of them and I believe that the Kesler deal is one that may haunt the Canucks. The Sedins proved their money year in and year out(al beit not in the playoffs) but they did not go from $2 million a season to $6 million a season. Their contract before this latest big one was $4ish each. Even then, they re-signed at Vancouver for LESS than they would have gotten in open market. Kesler's deal could and should have been in the $4 million range for 2 season. Gives Kesler a chance to prove he's not a flash in the pan and gives the Canucks a reasonable out if he turns out to be Shawn Horcoff Jr. Then, if he does play 2 more years with 70ish points and is a Selke Nominee, then Van has to pay him over $5 million, maybe over $6 million to lock him down.

That is logical and reasonable.

And IF the Canucks were trying to win the Cup NOW as stated, why the hell would the lock him up for 6 years?? They are banking on him being part of their core for various runs to the Cup. Honestly, if I am Mike Gillis, I am not really thinking I will win the Cup this year. I have too many holes in my defense. I look and say I have the core of my forwards lock up, I have the best goalie in the league locked up, and I have some young kids coming up that are going to make noise. I better go find a defenseman or two to give me a legitimate shot at the Cup or I will continue to win divisions but only get to the 2nd round.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5791 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  13:27:44  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by nux-suk

Alex, why cant you get it man??? People think he is not worth the money. Anytime somebody challenges your self appointed great wisdom, you revert back to Canuck/Kesler hate. What colour is the sky in your world?



"Why can't you get it MAN"? Huh, last week i was female, remember? I'll answer your question anyway, "People" also think he is worth it. There, if you don't beleive me, read the threads on here. My "self appointed great wisdom" you speak of is also known as my opinion, which last time i checked, i'm permitted to share.
Love some of your posts, but often i find myself shaking my head when i waste my time with other ones.
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Guest2900
( )

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  13:28:18  Reply with Quote
Actually, it's really easy to rig any of these polls: you can vote as many times as you want, as long as you clear your browser cookies and history, then reload the page or browser, then vote multiple times, so the poll proves nothing in terms of fair market value.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5791 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  13:56:33  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

That being said, the Kesler deal is overpaid today and today only. If, in the next 2 seasons he continues what he did this year, then absolutely the deal is solid. If he does it for the next 6 years, then it's a steal.


Tell me this much Beans....If Crosby gets 70 points for the next 5 years, is he overpaid? I'd say so. Every contract is a risk. I know what you mean by contracts based on potential being risky but unfortunatley in this day and age of the NHL, guys get rewarded in this regard often. It's why the whole debate about players having slumps AFTER a contract year or having a career year in a contract year is so intriguing.



quote:
And IF the Canucks were trying to win the Cup NOW as stated, why the hell would the lock him up for 6 years?? They are banking on him being part of their core for various runs to the Cup.


When those of us who make this claim say "NOW", we mean this year, next year, etc when the core of guys are not only all signed, but all in or near their prime! Luongo, the Sedins, Burrows and now Kesler are all signed long term and therefore gives them a good shot at making a run over the next 4 or 5 years!



quote:
Honestly, if I am Mike Gillis, I am not really thinking I will win the Cup this year. I have too many holes in my defense. I look and say I have the core of my forwards lock up, I have the best goalie in the league locked up, and I have some young kids coming up that are going to make noise. I better go find a defenseman or two to give me a legitimate shot at the Cup or I will continue to win divisions but only get to the 2nd round.



Wow, this has gotta be the most ridiculously absurd thing i've read from you EVER! Let it be know, i'm grateful you are NOT Mike Gillis if that's your attitude. Let me get this straight. The Canucks sit 5th overall in the NHL with approx 10 games left. They hold the 3rd seed in the west by 5 pts giving them home ice advantage in their first round matchup at the very least. They are currently the 2nd highest scoring team in the entire league. They are also 7th in the NHL in GA and that's with a defense that's struggled with injuries all season!!! Basically, with your reasoning, Pittsburgh should have that same attitude. I mean, Vancouver is ahead of them in every stat i mentioned yet i suppose they remain a contender? I would think a guy who cheers for a team that made the cup final as an 8 seed (and damn near won it) would be able to realize that ANY team with a playoff spot can make a run every year and especially one in the top 5 of the entire league?
And you think Mike Gillis should have the attitude that his team can't win this year? Wow, thankfully we have Gillis in Vancouver and not you! Don't quit your day job!!!




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fat_elvis_rocked
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
899 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  15:10:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

I find it interesting that people can always find a way to twist anything at any time.

The questions is simple and very valid. Who cares what teams wants him or signed him or anything else. Every players in the NHL has a market value. Crosby and Ovechkin are at the top of that heap where any team would pay $10 million for either of them. Some players would be more valuable than others on certain teams, but that does not change the overall market value.

For example, if for some reasons both Malkin and Staal were to leave Pitt and they were in the market for a 2nd line centre, what would they pay to fill that spot with a top teir 2nd line centre??? $5 million?? $4 million?? $6 million??

The question is clear. It can be clouded with any various spins or hypotheticals. But every player has a market value. Without a market value, what is the argument for who is over or under paid?? Where is the bench mark?? How would arbitration be possible???

It's also interesting what the votes are showing to this point.



I agree when it comes to the cream of the crop type players, they demand a certain level of recompense, and standard market vaule, regardless of team, but even that isn't always realistic, ie; Theo Fleury as a Ranger, Alexei Yashin as an Islander and so on.

Kesler, Kessel, et al, are not in that level of standardization, I think they have a 'market value', but the bigger question would probably be, what is the range of that value for this type of player? Would 3-5 million be too liberal of a range? 2-7 million? This, IMO, is where their value to each team, and said team's cap structure, then would sway that range, would it not?

To block statement it ,and say he is not worth this much, based on comparables, and statistics, doens't address this issue with the included information accurately, it doesn't matter how it is spun.

To use your Pittsburgh example, they might pay anywhere from 3-7 million for a 2nd line center, it all depends on who is available and what skill sets they would be bringing at the time, does it not? The departure of both Malkin and Staal would certainly give them the cap room to be as creative as they wanted, unlike other teams with differing cap situations, needs, etc.

To me the 'market value' for any player is nothing more than a guideline, for the other facets, arbitration being one. It is not a concrete figure to be used for arbitration, as the player in question has not only their comparable worth assessed, but their worth to the team they are arbitrating with. Under paid? Over paid?, based on 'market value'? Way too many examples of both historically, again, making 'market value', naught more than a guideline.

Here's a good one;

Warren Young signs for an overpaid contract with Detroit, based on the market value, his 40 goal season the previous year, playing with rookie Mario Lemieux, created. That was a 'right now' market value siging, and the next year, he scored 22 goals, and was done in the NHL, a few years later.


Edited by - fat_elvis_rocked on 03/23/2010 15:12:19
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  17:06:44  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
To Mr Alex116 :

Firstly, Crosby is under contract for another 3 seasons after this year, not 5. And if he did have those 3 consecutive years at 70 points or less (full, injury free seasons) and they Pens did not succeed, I would venture to say his salary is not going to be at th top of the league.

Look at Vinny Lecavalier. 2 years ago, most GM's would have said he was a corner stone of any franchise and his contract was never questioned. Today, few GM's would reasonbly sign him to the $10 million a year.

The NHL is not a what have you done for me, it's a what have you done for me lately league.


Secondly, you can bring up all the stats and numbers you want about the Canucks. Two things. Playoffs is a whole other ball game and every weakness that a team has is magnified in the playoffs. Secondly, where was Vancouver at the end of last season?? How much different were they statistically this year than last year?? There is an improvement offensively, but defensively, PP, and PK is pretty well the same as last year.

How did that work out for them???


Now, I admit that my comments may have been a little short sighted and that no GM should ever think their team shouldn't win when they are in the position that Vancouver is. At the same time, do you disagree that a defense comprised of Erhoff, Edler, O'Brien, Bieksa, Mitchell, and Salo is not really the group one would like to take against the Blackhawks or Sharks or if they make it to the Finals against Washington, Pitt, or New Jersey???

I dunno, after #1 and #2, that defensive group is not much to look at.

That was my point. Maybe stated a little oddly, but none the less.
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irvine
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1315 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  18:22:18  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Sigh, I can't believe we now have TWO topics regarding this Kesler signing.

As I stated in the other thread...

It's very hard to measure a players worth to other teams, that he has not played for. So many things factor in, that really make it impossible.

Some of things are as simple as what the other teams (all teams no Vancouver) need, cap room they have, where they are in the standings (playoff contender, cup contender, last in the league), where they want to be next season, etc...

Another thing is, each team & GM see a player very differently than any other team does. That's what differentiates General Managers. Vancouver may see Kesler to their franchise as a better fit than Pittsburgh would see him, to their team.

Most of us, including Beans & Alex, have all agreed we see him worth $4-$4.5 million. Vancouver clearly see him as a fitting piece to their future... now, if he's a fitting piece to Vancouver, why allow him to see what else is out there? YOU want him, RFA or not.

Other teams will have the chance to bid on a player that you want to keep, and the price may drive up higher than the $4-$4.5 million you want to pay him, but he will not accept. Kesler says i'll play for $5Mil, which is $500K more than you see his worth....

I'd sacrifice that $500K, so that my player sees that we A) Believe in him, and what he does for our franchise & B) Other GM's can not drive up the price of keeping him, to past that $5Mil he has requested. Which is just $500K from what we wanted to pay him. Seems fair.

--

Now, Beans & Alex, you both have made valid points regarding your respective stances on this. But you two arguing over nothing at this point.

You both have essentially agreed that $4-4.5 Mil is his worth. The only thing you are now arguing is that Beans says he is being overpaid. (Yes, he is. By $500K) so technically Beans is correct in that.

Alex is correct in that Vancouver made the correct decision in paying him that extra $500K, to have him stay or to keep the actual price of keeping him down, as it may have gone up if another franchise deemed him crucial to their rebuild, and offered more.

You both see each others points, and I believe you both kind of agree with each other. But of course, one of you have to be the absolute correct one, thus this has continued.

Why can't you both just see that each of you, are correct in your beliefs, have both already agreed in one way or another, and both be happy that each of you won your argument. ;p

Irvine/prez.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3586 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  19:13:40  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
However, coming from it at the persepective of an Oilers fan, potential contracts are dangerous and punishing at times


You know, the Canucks have had their fair share of bad signings over the past 15 years (Messier, Naslund's last contract, Bertuzzi come to mind), so its not like we don't know a bad contract when we see one. I think its your perspective as an Oilers fan that is really clouding your view here.

quote:
At the same time, do you disagree that a defense comprised of Erhoff, Edler, O'Brien, Bieksa, Mitchell, and Salo is not really the group one would like to take against the Blackhawks or Sharks or if they make it to the Finals against Washington, Pitt, or New Jersey???

I dunno, after #1 and #2, that defensive group is not much to look at.


Hm, well this has sort of moved away from Kesler now. Yeah, I'd go up against any team in the NHL with those 6 as my top 6 regulars. The consistently prove that they can get the job done, Vancouver currently ranks 7th in team GA in the NHL. I have always liked the Canucks approach to defense - don't sign a big name and fill in the gaps with a bunch of minor leaguers, but rather get a solid group of avg to above-avg dmen to do the job reliably. No dman on the Canucks makes more than 3.5m/year, and I like that style.
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Guest6393
( )

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  20:08:44  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by irvine

Sigh, I can't believe we now have TWO topics regarding this Kesler signing.

As I stated in the other thread...

It's very hard to measure a players worth to other teams, that he has not played for. So many things factor in, that really make it impossible.

Some of things are as simple as what the other teams (all teams no Vancouver) need, cap room they have, where they are in the standings (playoff contender, cup contender, last in the league), where they want to be next season, etc...

Another thing is, each team & GM see a player very differently than any other team does. That's what differentiates General Managers. Vancouver may see Kesler to their franchise as a better fit than Pittsburgh would see him, to their team.

Most of us, including Beans & Alex, have all agreed we see him worth $4-$4.5 million. Vancouver clearly see him as a fitting piece to their future... now, if he's a fitting piece to Vancouver, why allow him to see what else is out there? YOU want him, RFA or not.

Other teams will have the chance to bid on a player that you want to keep, and the price may drive up higher than the $4-$4.5 million you want to pay him, but he will not accept. Kesler says i'll play for $5Mil, which is $500K more than you see his worth....

I'd sacrifice that $500K, so that my player sees that we A) Believe in him, and what he does for our franchise & B) Other GM's can not drive up the price of keeping him, to past that $5Mil he has requested. Which is just $500K from what we wanted to pay him. Seems fair.

--

Now, Beans & Alex, you both have made valid points regarding your respective stances on this. But you two arguing over nothing at this point.

You both have essentially agreed that $4-4.5 Mil is his worth. The only thing you are now arguing is that Beans says he is being overpaid. (Yes, he is. By $500K) so technically Beans is correct in that.

Alex is correct in that Vancouver made the correct decision in paying him that extra $500K, to have him stay or to keep the actual price of keeping him down, as it may have gone up if another franchise deemed him crucial to their rebuild, and offered more.

You both see each others points, and I believe you both kind of agree with each other. But of course, one of you have to be the absolute correct one, thus this has continued.

Why can't you both just see that each of you, are correct in your beliefs, have both already agreed in one way or another, and both be happy that each of you won your argument. ;p

Irvine/prez.



Quoted for emphasis. Pretty much sums up my previous posts and my view on the situation. Nicely done Irvine.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5791 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  20:51:42  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Irv...i hope i don't disappoint you here. I'm assuming you're expecting the usual "you don't have to read the thread if you don't like it" response we often see, no? Well, i'm not about to say that. I will say, i'm getting tired of this debate too, so i'll try to close it out, although, it's about to become about issue #2 first. Maybe i should have started a new topic?

As for your explanation of our debate, it's close. Fact is, i've agreed all along that they're overpaying him! I voted in the poll the 4.5 - 5 option and followed that up by saying i think he's worth 4.5! Therefore, he's overpaid in my mind. My argument all along has been that the Canucks made a good move in giving him the extra 500k to keep him happy and avoid any offer sheets, which in my opinion, were inevitable in this case. So, therein lies the prob. Beans and i can agree that he's overpaid but we have points of contention in other areas such as "What would others have paid had he gotten to RFA status", "Would teams be willing to offer him 5mil knowing the compensation they'd have to give up", "is he a comparable player to Mike Richards", etc. You see, unfortunately, while trying to prove our points, other things have arisen that we've debated, most recently, what Mike Gillis should think his chances are in the playoffs for the Canucks this year?!?! That one i will deal with next......
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Utemin
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
450 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  21:09:45  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I am more against 6 years i think 5 or 4 would of been better as for what he should of been payed, i would say $4M-$4.5M

To the Value of Kesler it would be about this to these certain teams

Vancouver 5 Million bonuses included so not full pay
Florida 6 Million
Pittsburgh 2 million
Chicago 4.5 Million
Colorado 4M
Tampa bay 3M
Philly 4M
St Louis 7M
ETC
so it is obvious it goes up and down depending on what the team needs, as for Keslers Value, he is Very uncommonly called a Versatile player but he also plays left wing and only aged at 25; causing Value to go up making him worth an AVERAGE of 5 Million through out the NHL, then also he has a lot of passion for Vancouver so the Cancuks could of dropped that about 5 million.
extending the deal to 6 years means Kesler will get over paid for 1 year to start then 1 year to end most likely. Or his full potential could go up slower then you would also have him over payed for the two start years and the contract would have to be re-made for another year for about 7 million for 1 Year.

Edited by - Utemin on 03/23/2010 21:21:37
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5791 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  21:15:55  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

To Mr Alex116 :

Firstly, Crosby is under contract for another 3 seasons after this year, not 5. And if he did have those 3 consecutive years at 70 points or less (full, injury free seasons) and they Pens did not succeed, I would venture to say his salary is not going to be at th top of the league.


My bad, i didn't look up Crosby's contract status but only because i was trying to prove a point. If you wanna be that picky, lemme try again. Actually forget it! You've basically covered it with Lecavalier. Is he now overpaid? Was he not paid on "assuming" he'd carry on the pace he set? I was simply trying to prove that paying for what is basically "potential", which is what the 'Nucks have done, happens all the time. You even said it yourself, the NHL is "what have you done for me lately". Well, lately, Kesler's played like a 5 million dollar guy i guess.

quote:
Secondly, you can bring up all the stats and numbers you want about the Canucks. Two things. Playoffs is a whole other ball game and every weakness that a team has is magnified in the playoffs. Secondly, where was Vancouver at the end of last season?? How much different were they statistically this year than last year?? There is an improvement offensively, but defensively, PP, and PK is pretty well the same as last year.

How did that work out for them???


Now, I admit that my comments may have been a little short sighted and that no GM should ever think their team shouldn't win when they are in the position that Vancouver is. At the same time, do you disagree that a defense comprised of Erhoff, Edler, O'Brien, Bieksa, Mitchell, and Salo is not really the group one would like to take against the Blackhawks or Sharks or if they make it to the Finals against Washington, Pitt, or New Jersey???

I dunno, after #1 and #2, that defensive group is not much to look at.

That was my point. Maybe stated a little oddly, but none the less.



The stats i provided had no intention of implying the Canucks WOULD win the cup or even a single game. If stats are all you need, then the Sharks would have multiple cups by now, i understand that. They were to support my opinion that your idea of what Mike Gillis should feel was completely absurd. Here's a shocker for you. I'm not picking the Canucks to win the Cup. I don't think they CAN'T, i just wouldn't bet them to if i could pick one team at this point. Would i be shocked if they did, no! They're def good enough but at the same time, if they come out flat and play poorly, they could be swept by any team. These things happen in sports, right?

I do agree with you that the D could use some improvements, even though their GA is very good, especially if Mitchell isn't back by the playoffs which is very likely at this point. At the same time, how many teams have a D which they feel completely confident with vs a potent attack like Chicago or Washington? Prob not many unless they sacrifice the offense needed to stick with them? Also, how many times have we heard that Huet and Niemi aren't good enough in the net to allow the Hawks to go all the way? Similar words are heard for Washington. Point is, all teams have a hole or two and to claim a team in 5th shouldn't expect to win the cup is beyond comprehension!

Guess who thinks the Canucks have a better shot than all but 4 other teams to hoist the cup? Well, without looking up a bunch, Bodogsports.com has them at the 5th lowest odds?

Maybe your words came out wrong and you were simply implying that their D still needs work? I would hope you'd be upset if your GM ever thought that way, well, unless of course you're talking about the current situation there i suppose.

BTW, i think your spOILERS may now be my least liked team after realizing they beat us tonight. I'm only kidding of course. Worked late and didn't get a chance to see the game.

Edited by - Alex116 on 03/23/2010 21:30:55
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irvine
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1315 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  22:40:22  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Actually Alex, I wasn't looking for a 'If you don't like it, don't read it' type of response. I was looking for a real, legit one. So thank you. :)

With the above being said, I must say that I do understand where things have lead to between you two, and that the argument has shifted slightly to different debates of things brought up during the initial debate... but, key word being 'slightly.'

Ultimately, it all goes back to the original debate of just this, is Kesler being overpaid while signing a 6 year, $5Mil per year deal with Vancouver.

And I believe, you both are actually on the exact same page. Yet, still debating it. ;P

Yes, Kesler is being overpaid by $500K if you consider a 'league value' for a player of his type and caliber. By league value, I mean Kesler (and comparable players) + all 30 NHL teams being equal, what would his worth be to ALL teams. Not just the Canucks.

But, is Kesler being paid while with the Canucks? Perhaps, but his value to Vancouver differentiates when compared to any other NHL team.

We have all agreed... Kesler is being overpaid by $500-750K per season.

We have all agreed that Kesler is a legit 2nd line Center in the league, and more specifically, Vancouver.

We have all agreed that, only time will tell if Kesler can earn that extra $500-750K if he continues to produce at the level he is, for the next 6 years.

So yes Alex, the debate has shifted off and on to other things (all similar and relating to Kesler & Vancouver), but ultimately, it comes back to the exact same topic. hehe.

A good debate, I am enjoying it... but you guys need to agree to disagree soon. Because to me personally, it seems like you both are on the exact same page... just arguing over wording. ;p



Irvine/prez.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2010 :  23:40:48  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I disagree to disagree.

We are much farther apart than what my Homie Irv is suggesting. I am thinking that $4 million is correct, not $4.5.

Really, the only reason I keep arguing this is that there is literally nothing better to discuss and it's a ton of fun stiring the pot!!

I think it's completely insane to compare Kesler with most other $5 million players. I still don't like him and would be very disappointed if he was an Oiler. I still think his contract is about 2 years too long and $1 million a season too high.

Ehem. Let me clear my throut as I don't do this often.

I also appreciate what the Canucks management was doing and the passion that Canucks fan show when they back up thier players. In the end, I will admit that I have a greater respect for the skill of Kesler and what he brings to his team

But, until something better gets posted to talk about, ignore this as I am going to keep fighting
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irvine
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1315 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2010 :  03:30:44  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
"My homie"...

I'm not sure if I should be taking that as a compliment / sign of respect...

or if I should be sulking in a corner, because I just got 'dissed'. lol.

Irvine/prez.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5791 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2010 :  08:19:16  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Well Beans, in Irv's defense, he is right, we're not that far off. Has what i feel he is worth been somehow missed? I've said on a couple diff occasions that i think 4.5 would be fair. I said that from the start! Therefore, Irv is correct, we're only a half million apart.

Like i said, it's the arguments within the argument that have continued this on.

To summarize:
I think Kesler is worth 4.5
Therefore i believe the Canucks overpaid slightly for him.
I also feel they were smart to do so.
I feel this way because in my opinion, he'd have gotten offer sheets in the 5 million range, possibly higher.
Because the Canucks are trying desperately to win the cup while their core is in it's prime (next 4-5 years) and while they have it (the core) locked up, i don't think the compensation from ANY offer sheet would be what they're looking for at this point.
In closing, i agree with Beans that the lack of other interesting debates/topics has carried this one on and sadly, the ridiculous polls that have recently arisen are doing nothing to help this

I'm sure there's more, but you i'm sure you'll see what i mean. And, if you don't like it, you don't have to......oh nevermind
BTW, j/k with that last comment in case it comes out wrong in reading....
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