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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 07/26/2011 :  08:35:55  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Duke, a couple of things:

1 - Until Kessel scored 40 goals, you have nothing. You can talk all you want about who he plays with and what he should be able to do, but that's all irrelevant until he does what people say he can do. We all know he is a legitimate 30-35 goal scorer what appears to be year in and year out. However, he has not scored 40. As I said, when does potential end and reality start. Let's take a quick look at the players who have scored more than 40 goals in say the past 5 seasons. There were 27 players who scored 40 or more goals in the past 5 seasons. Of those 27 players, all but 6 scored their first 40 goal season during or before their 6th season. Age is irrelevant as a number of those guys were Kessel's age or younger. This is what I mean by when does potential become reality. If Kessel doesn't do 40 this season, he may never. At least that's what recent history says.

2 - I know the whole story on Phil Kessel. I get it. He is a legitimate 30-35 goal scorer(maybe even more) and could and should be for most of his career. That is a valuable player. However, I will lump Duke in with a number of other Leaf fans (but not all Leaf fans) and say you are not seeing the other side of the deal. Seguin is showing every sign of being a great NHL player. Definitly not the scorer that Kessel is, but a better playmaker and a more responsible player. A la Johnathon Toews. Further, if (and it is an if) Dougie Hamilton does become that Rob Blake type player, it's simply not even close. That's not counting that Knight kid either.


3 - If the Gretzky comment was made as a shot, you missed. Big time. The two sitautions were not even close to the same. Every time Gretzky was traded it was one of the worst deals in history. The deal from Edmonton and the deal from LA. The Bobby Orr deal was one of the worst deals in history. The Lindros Deal, the deal that Calgary made when they moved Hull and the deal they did when they moved Gilmour. This could also be one of those trades. If Kessel doesn't ever score 40, Seguin and Hamilton both meet potential, and the Leafs don't win a Cup with Kessel, it absolutely would be one of the worst deals in history.
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Oilearl
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
266 Posts

Posted - 07/26/2011 :  17:43:49  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
You could add the Cam Neely trade to the top of the list for bad trades.
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The Duke
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Canada
1040 Posts

Posted - 07/26/2011 :  19:40:03  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Alex to answer your question...if i were the leafs GM and had those 3 prospects in my system, theres not a chance in hell i trade all 3 for Phil kessel.

See theres where all the problems with this debate begin. Brian Burke didn`t trade those 3 prospects for kessel...he traded 2 first round and a second round pick.

Burke was probally thinking...we have jack-s**t to score a goal...i can get a 21 year old Proven pure sniper for maybe 2 middle of the pack 1st rounders...( thinking the leafs would finish in the middle of the standings ). Thinking again, is kessel worth these middle picks...of course he is !!!...

Now the trouble starts...the leafs play horrible, goal-tending is non - existent, the rest is history. If he guessed right, ( which he didn`t ) the analyist would have been saying, Burke`s did it again...robbing Boston of a young star, giving them in return maybe 2 second line players at best, who can only dream of getting 30 - 35 goals. BUT this didn`t happen....they drafted Seguin 2nd over-all.

I can only comment on Seguin, he looks like a great young hockey player who i would love for the leafs to have. As for the other 2 ( Hamilton and Knight ), i have no idea who they are so i can`t really say anything about them....remember, Wade Belak was drafted 9th over-all with so much promise.

Beans, i wasn`t really taking a shot with the Gretzky trade , i was very serious. The Oilers didn`t get a 27 year old ( Healthy ) Mario Lemieux or Bobby Orr in return.....so it was one of the worst trades in NHL history. Who else would be of fair value ??
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Alex116
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5794 Posts

Posted - 07/26/2011 :  20:11:00  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Duke, thank you for your honesty in answering your question. Being that the question in this thread is about "who won the trade", it's hard to argue that Boston didn't win it. That's the only point i, and many others, have been trying to make.

Don't get me wrong, i'm not a Burke guy at all, but i don't for a second think he'd trade Kessel for those 3 guys either. In fact, i don't think he'd make the trade for just the 2nd overall and i agree that he never expected it to be that high of a pick (prob expected it to be in the 12-14 range at the best). Even though he prob would claim he would, i don't buy it. I don't think he's a dumb person, but in the end, with the way it worked out, i think he (the Leafs) lost this trade, that is all.
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Guest4312
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Posted - 07/27/2011 :  07:31:37  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by The Duke

I can only comment on Seguin, he looks like a great young hockey player who i would love for the leafs to have. As for the other 2 ( Hamilton and Knight ), i have no idea who they are so i can`t really say anything about them....


Dougie Hamilton could very well be better than Seguin in their respective careers. He is a responsible defenseman with offensive upside, good work ethic and extremely intelligent. To give you a comparison many people put him right up there with Adam Larsson and Larsson is supposed to be better than Victor Hedman.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 07/27/2011 :  07:58:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by The Duke

Alex to answer your question...if i were the leafs GM and had those 3 prospects in my system, theres not a chance in hell i trade all 3 for Phil kessel.

See theres where all the problems with this debate begin. Brian Burke didn`t trade those 3 prospects for kessel...he traded 2 first round and a second round pick.

Burke was probally thinking...we have jack-s**t to score a goal...i can get a 21 year old Proven pure sniper for maybe 2 middle of the pack 1st rounders...( thinking the leafs would finish in the middle of the standings ). Thinking again, is kessel worth these middle picks...of course he is !!!...

Now the trouble starts...the leafs play horrible, goal-tending is non - existent, the rest is history. If he guessed right, ( which he didn`t ) the analyist would have been saying, Burke`s did it again...robbing Boston of a young star, giving them in return maybe 2 second line players at best, who can only dream of getting 30 - 35 goals. BUT this didn`t happen....they drafted Seguin 2nd over-all.

I can only comment on Seguin, he looks like a great young hockey player who i would love for the leafs to have. As for the other 2 ( Hamilton and Knight ), i have no idea who they are so i can`t really say anything about them....remember, Wade Belak was drafted 9th over-all with so much promise.

Beans, i wasn`t really taking a shot with the Gretzky trade , i was very serious. The Oilers didn`t get a 27 year old ( Healthy ) Mario Lemieux or Bobby Orr in return.....so it was one of the worst trades in NHL history. Who else would be of fair value ??




Fair comments. Burke was taking a risk when he made the deal and (IMO) over-estimated his teams abilities. Even though he would never say it, I think he (and most Leaf fans) would agree that hindsight makes this a less than stellar move. I would also think in hindsight that if the picks involved were not middle of the round but great early picks, that coveted goal scorer would have been a better scorer than Kessel.

Not to get too far off line here, but let's revisit that Gretzky trade from Edmonton. The LA Kings got Gretzky, his bodyguard at the time in McSorley, and Mike Krushelnyski who was a guy a little past his prime that wasn't ever a prime time player. The Oilers got Jimmy Carson, a 50 goal scorer who had a 100 pt season with the Oilers and Martin Gelinas, a young talent who completed the Oilers"Kid line" with Adam Graves and Joe Murphy who were a big part of winning the Cup in '90. They also got 3 1st round draft picks. One was traded to NJ, another was Martin Rucinsky, and the third was a bust named Nick Stajduhar. Let's not forget that $15 million that was involved as well.

So, the trade itself was not that poor. What the Oilers did with the assets afterwards was poor. Of course, you never get value when you trade one of the best players to ever play. However, the fact the Oilers won the Cup the following year without Gretzky and the players involved in that trade were instrumental in winning that Cup says something.

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Guest4178
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Posted - 07/27/2011 :  10:45:33  Reply with Quote
Not to get too far off topic (which is about the Phil Kessel deal), Beans makes some very good points about the Gretzky trade. (Which could be a lengthy topic/thread on its own!)

It's important to note that Gretzky converted his personal services contract with Pocklington (and the Oilers) in the summer of 1988 to a standard player's contract, which allowed him to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 1988-89 season.

Pocklington tried to renegotiate Gretzky's contract prior to the trade, but Gretzky wanted to open himself up to free agency, and with Edmonton's limited budget, it was very likely the Oilers would have lost Gretzky (without any compensation in return) just one season after the trade took place. This is very significant – can you imagine if no deal or trade was made, and another team picked up Gretzky at the end of the 1988-89 season? And the Oilers getting nothing in return. This was a very real possibility, and while I understand why people chose (and still choose) to vilify Pocklington for the trade, this perspective is often overlooked by Oiler fans.
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The Duke
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Canada
1040 Posts

Posted - 07/27/2011 :  20:16:29  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Guest 4178, i know NHL contracts are full of loopholes and legalities that most of us will never fully understand...but...

in 1989 Wayne Gretzky would have been 28 years old and unrestricted free agency at that time was 31 years old...a player could not become a fully unrestricted free agent until age 31, ( unless a team released him of course ) i don`t think any team would let Gretzky walk 3 years before his unrestricted age.

If he was under a standard NHL players contract, how could he become unrestricted 3 years earlier than the league standard ?

If i`m missing something here, please fill me in. Was Wayne Gretzky entitled to something 3 years earlier than the rest of the NHL players in the league ?
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 07/28/2011 :  07:00:16  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I know there is something missing to this Duke, I just can't remember the details. Gretzky was to become a free agent the following season, that is a truth.

I would also like to note that the guest also left out the severe financial issues that Pocklington was under at the time. Gretzky was as much a sale for the $15 million as it was a trade.

That being said, it is also stated by all parties involved (Sather, Gretzky, and Pocklington) that many times prior to the trade up until a few minutes before the memorable tear-fill press conference, Gretzky was asked countless times if he wanted to go through with it. Sather said publically that he would quit if Gretzky didn't want the trade and Pocklington went through with it. Pocklington and Gretzky both stated publically that if Gretzky would have said, "No, I want to stay," he would have stated.

No one should have been vilified in that situations but I know it's nearly impossible not to pass blame on someone. Much like this Kessel situation. If the trade turns out to be garbage, Burke gets vilified. Although his logic of being a playoff team and not giving up 2 extremely high draft picks for Kessel was sound. Unfortunately, it did not turn out that way.
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Guest4178
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Posted - 07/28/2011 :  07:39:08  Reply with Quote
I agree with Beans further comments.

As far as the details go, I was basing Gretzky's UFA status on my memory of the "deal," and also, the details of the deal described in Pocklington's book, "I'd Trade Him Again," which is actually a good read.

I lent out my copy of the book, so to confirm my recollection, I checked out the details of the Gretzky trade in Wikipedia (under the category of the Edmonton Oilers). Here's the quote from Wikipedia: "Gretzky had converted his personal-services contract with Pocklington into a standard five-year player's contract with the Oilers in the summer of 1987 with an option to declare himself an unrestricted free agent after the 1988-89 season."

I made an error in my original posting though. I stated that Gretzky and Pocklington converted his personal services contract in the summer of 1988 instead of 1987. This was a typo, because the trade obviously took place in August 1988.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 07/28/2011 :  08:21:49  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
OK folks, if we want to talk the Gretzky trade, let's start a new thread. I apologize for going off track. It was part of the conversation when bringing up the potential of the 'worst trades in NHL history" but it is getting way too far off track.

Let's bring it back to the Kessel deal.
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Guest4271
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Posted - 07/28/2011 :  14:55:43  Reply with Quote
Lets take this a step further, what if Kessel doesn't resign with Toronto. IT makes a bad trade absolutely the worst trade in history.
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1040 Posts

Posted - 07/28/2011 :  18:15:47  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Guest, ( looking at it that way ) what if kessel resigns with the leafs and Seguin plus Hamiliton doesn`t resign with the Bruins, would it then be the worst trade in history for the Bruins ???

Come on, we can speculate on this nonsense for days. The bottom line of this trade is........

The leafs received a young player who has one of the best puck releases in hockey....who can score.

The Bruins received a great young player in Seguin and from what everyone is saying a good young defenseman with great upside.

I don`t think the leafs were severely ripped off or anything. Its not like they traded for a 35 year old who is going down hill.
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andyhack
PickupHockey Pro



Japan
891 Posts

Posted - 07/29/2011 :  06:45:52  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

I have to agree with PC that i think you're putting FAR too much emphasis on that one game. Yeah, heckuva game, but as far as using that to say who's winning or who won the trade it ridiculous.

Don't get me wrong, imo, the B's won this trade, no questions asked. But i'd be saying that even if Seguin sat in the press box the entire playoffs and didin't get a sniff of ice time!




You clarifed my point for me.

And that is, you can't emphasize that 4 point game enough in answering this question. I mean, it was not just that it was a "heckuva" game. It was the timing and circumstances in which it was delivered.

Call me ridiculous for overemphasizing it if you will. That's debate, and I'm all for that. But consider this. Even if you have a point as to the extent of my "emphasis," if we put very little emphasis on a huge game at a huge time (without which there might very well not have been a Cup - do you have to be an ancient Bruins fan to understand this?) and dismiss that as not being particularly relevant, as some here seem to be doing, are we not reaching a far higher level of ridiculous thinking?

Anyway, I admit that it would not be correct to say that the Bs have won this trade, period. Kessel can still turn that story around, perhaps. I'm just saying that, at this point, that one game contribution by Seguin alone easily makes the trade "worth it" for the Bs. They are well ahead at the moment.

Also, regarding some posts by others, my point is not that the Cup itself is the measurement. It's the contribution to the Cup. And that he didn't produce offensive numbers in his other games shouldn't take away anything from the fact that he delivered an outstanding effort in what very arguably was a must-win situation for the Bs.

Edit - Porkchop - if you're reading, I agree that Roy's standard is unbelievably high (check my posts on him a few years ago) and other players are out there too that by comparison far outweigh Seguin's performance. No argument there. But my comment was made in relation to imagining what Kessel would have to do to equal Seguin's "impact" in that one game. In that sense, from where Kessel stands, the bar is, well, not low.

Edited by - andyhack on 07/29/2011 07:14:57
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The Duke
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Canada
1040 Posts

Posted - 07/29/2011 :  13:12:38  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Andyhack, thats all speculation and what if`s when looking at Seguin`s one game performance. Did you ever think that maybe if Boston still had kessel in their cup run that maybe they wouldn`t have desperately needed that big game by Seguin ??

Boston won the cup...congratulations to them and all their fans. I surely think that if kessel were still there that he would have helped them greatly...surely he wouldn`t have hurt them.
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Porkchop73
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640 Posts

Posted - 07/29/2011 :  13:31:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I fully understand what you are saying, Andyhack, and yes in that particular game Seguin rose to the occasion and I can say myself that it was a "hekuva" game by the rookie. I hope it is a sign of things to come from Seguin. He is a good young player and I hope he gets more of a chance from Julien this year then he did last year. I also understand your reason for the emphasis of a very very very high standard.
However. You cannot say without a doubt, given Kessels scoring ability, that Kessel (nor anyone else but this thread is about Kessel) could not have had the same game at the same opportune time as Seguin did. In fact given Kessels scoring ability there is nothing to say that if Kessel was still a Bruin last year that he would not have led the league in Playoff goals.
Ultimately it was Kessel who wanted out of Boston. The Leafs took him knowing what they would get. I think that if Kessel had remained a Bruin, he would have certainly been a leader in goals scored for the Bruins and in the playoffs last year.
That alone makes me question one game by Seguin as a difference maker in "who wins the Kessel trade". I just think there is more compelling reasons, that others have stated, as to why Boston is so far the "winner" of this trade.

Edited by - Porkchop73 on 07/29/2011 13:33:07
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Alex116
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5794 Posts

Posted - 07/29/2011 :  13:41:42  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Exactly what i was getting at! Seguin's "one game" was great, i'll give him that. But there's no telling if the Bruins may have won that game anyway? Maybe if he didn't step up, someone else would have (let's say he wasn't dressed). Maybe they win 3-2 instead? We'll never know, we can't change history and scenarios like that.

But that one game, has nothing to do with who "won" this trade as far as i'm concerned!
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willus3
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Canada
1948 Posts

Posted - 08/02/2011 :  09:19:03  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Whether or not Kessel could have or would have had a greater impact if still with Boston is irrelevant. Completely missing the point.
The trade happened. It now only matters what happens next.
As of now Seguin had a huge game for Boston contributing to them winning a Stanley Cup. That is bigger than anything Kessel has done thus far with the Leafs. Period.
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Beans15
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Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 08/02/2011 :  11:38:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by willus3

Whether or not Kessel could have or would have had a greater impact if still with Boston is irrelevant. Completely missing the point.
The trade happened. It now only matters what happens next.
As of now Seguin had a huge game for Boston contributing to them winning a Stanley Cup. That is bigger than anything Kessel has done thus far with the Leafs. Period.



I can't see any real logical argument on this either. One can say all they want about what Kessel would have done in that spot or that Kessel has had the opportunity, etc. However, I know I can measure what Seguin DID do and that was basically win a pivotal game against TB on his own.

Granted, that should not be the only measure of this deal but it's hard to not bring it into the equation. It's easy to say that one of these two players has stepped up on the biggest stage and that counts for something. Not everything, but something.
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Pasty7
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Canada
2268 Posts

Posted - 08/02/2011 :  13:52:31  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
i know not very many of you put much stock in plus minus stats, but Kessel was also a dismal minus 21 last season and other than Bozak's minus 29 the next worst +/- of players who played a full season is Mike Komisarek at minus 8, that means with Kessel and Bozak on the ice the Buds were much more likely to be scored on than score, say what you want about plus minus stats when you have only two players on the entire team with plus minus that bad it is a legit stat, it's not like Kessel and Bozak are out their alone all the time it paints a pretty goo picture of their defensive game or lack their of

"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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Guest9279
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Posted - 08/02/2011 :  15:29:58  Reply with Quote
Kessel is completely useless when it comes to defensive coverage. That was a big reason Boston Didn't want to pay him that big contract. Not saying he isn't a good goal scorer, but a pretty much one diminsional player.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 08/02/2011 :  16:22:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
A few good points made by the past two posters and kind of linked. Firstly, Kessel is a very one dimensional player. He is interested in one thing and one things only which is to score goals. Burke did not bring him in to be his shutdown foward, he brought him in for scoring goal. However, even the best goal scorers should and must be responsible defensively. I don't think Kessel is responsible defensively and his +/- shows that.

To Pasty's point, +/- is a difficult stat however I believe when comparing players on the same team, +/- has merit. When looking at Kessel compared to his team, he has always been near the bottom of the list. He has 4 of 5 seasons as a minus player with one glowing season of +20 when playing most of his time with Savard.

That's where I like Seguin better in this deal in that I think he will be at least a 60 pt guy like Kessel but also a count on defensive player.

Edited by - Beans15 on 08/02/2011 16:24:19
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Guest4038
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Posted - 08/02/2011 :  18:25:00  Reply with Quote
yes it's true that Kessel is very weak defensively. but at 23 years old i'm betting most players his age, that are known for their offense, are weak defensively. as a comparison, check out Stamkos. the last two seasons he's had 95 and 91 pts respectively. but in each of these two seasons he was a -2 and then a +3. for a guy with as many points as he gets, i'd expect a higher +/- then these.
give Stamkos more time and i'm sure his defensive game will develop as well. just like Kessel's should.
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Pasty7
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Canada
2268 Posts

Posted - 08/02/2011 :  22:13:30  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4038

yes it's true that Kessel is very weak defensively. but at 23 years old i'm betting most players his age, that are known for their offense, are weak defensively. as a comparison, check out Stamkos. the last two seasons he's had 95 and 91 pts respectively. but in each of these two seasons he was a -2 and then a +3. for a guy with as many points as he gets, i'd expect a higher +/- then these.
give Stamkos more time and i'm sure his defensive game will develop as well. just like Kessel's should.



yeah but the worst plus minus rating on the TB lightning last season was minus 12 ... and the best was plus 8,, stamkos's plus 3 was 3rd best on the team.... their is a big difference,,,,, kessel was minus 21 on a team whos plus minus was very close to 0 on adverage.... but i am drunk so i could be wrong

"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5794 Posts

Posted - 08/03/2011 :  07:55:46  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Drunk or not Pasty, you make a good point, providing your #'s are correct, as i didn't check them. Stamkos is somewhere in the avg of the team and not standing out one way or the other. That, i believe, is what Beans meant when he said "To Pasty's point, +/- is a difficult stat however I believe when comparing players on the same team, +/- has merit.". This came from a guy who usually doesn't put much of anything into the stat, but he makes a very valid point with what he said there.

As far as most players his age being known for their offense, that's not entirely true either. Often they're not thrust into a prominent role either offensively or defensively, but many young players try to focus on their defense because they know that's what's going to help them stick in the league at a young age. Kessel on the other hand, is a gifted sniper and has proven that and has not developed any sort of defensive game. When he's called a "one dimensional player", it's not necessarily to be taken as an insult. Sure, he could, and SHOULD, try to improve a little in the area of backchecking, but he's still a very talented asset for his club! If he can develop some sort of defensive side to his game, the Leafs well be that much better off.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4594 Posts

Posted - 08/03/2011 :  08:08:33  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116

Drunk or not Pasty, you make a good point, providing your #'s are correct, as i didn't check them. Stamkos is somewhere in the avg of the team and not standing out one way or the other. That, i believe, is what Beans meant when he said "To Pasty's point, +/- is a difficult stat however I believe when comparing players on the same team, +/- has merit.". This came from a guy who usually doesn't put much of anything into the stat, but he makes a very valid point with what he said there.

As far as most players his age being known for their offense, that's not entirely true either. Often they're not thrust into a prominent role either offensively or defensively, but many young players try to focus on their defense because they know that's what's going to help them stick in the league at a young age. Kessel on the other hand, is a gifted sniper and has proven that and has not developed any sort of defensive game. When he's called a "one dimensional player", it's not necessarily to be taken as an insult. Sure, he could, and SHOULD, try to improve a little in the area of backchecking, but he's still a very talented asset for his club! If he can develop some sort of defensive side to his game, the Leafs well be that much better off.



Not to defend Kessel at every juncture, but .. . he did make good strides in repairing his defensive side of the game in the second half of the season. And, I think having an upgrade at center will help as well.

Often, when the entire three forward line is really doing well, the +/- stat really takes care of itself.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3586 Posts

Posted - 08/03/2011 :  10:19:10  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:

Often, when the entire three forward line is really doing well, the +/- stat really takes care of itself.



Actually, all you really need to do is score more goals than you allow. TOR scored 218 last year and allowed 251 - some plus/minuses are going to suffer with that kind of negative differential, no matter how many lines are clicking.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4594 Posts

Posted - 08/03/2011 :  10:47:21  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan

quote:

Often, when the entire three forward line is really doing well, the +/- stat really takes care of itself.



Actually, all you really need to do is score more goals than you allow. TOR scored 218 last year and allowed 251 - some plus/minuses are going to suffer with that kind of negative differential, no matter how many lines are clicking.



For sure - but it was notable that Toronto's supposed "second line" of Grabovski, Kulemin and MacArthur was a combined +18. Also notable that Bozak, who Kessel played with, was the player with the worst +/- at -29. Lupul was -7 in 28 games as well.

Basically, I agree that Kessel's game needs improvement from the defensive side . . . but it takes time, and is much more difficult to do when you play all year with a rookie at center who struggles, and an ever-changing line of other wingers. Again, not to make excuses, but . . . even for a non-defensive player like Kessel, that will usually hurt your +/- and overall defensive stats.

But players do get better at defence quite often as they age. Take the aforemention Grabovski, fo rinstance . . . in 08/09, he was a -8. In 09/10, a +3 in over 50 games. Last year, he led the Leafs at +14 . . . and all of this was on a poor to very middling team, statistically.

So, I am looking at a big defensive improvement this year - the Leafs goal differential should be better, Kessel will have better linemates, and he is one more year more mature.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1040 Posts

Posted - 08/14/2011 :  19:29:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hey all again...back from the Big Land..Agree totally that kessel should improve his defensive game, i think he did though in the latter part of the season.

Last years plus / minus stats for the leafs were greatly influenced by LOUSY goaltending in the first half of the season and overall terrible defensive play. Most leaf defenseman were in no - mans land ( for some reason ) in the first half.

I wonder what the the leafs players plus / minus would look like if it was taken from the last 30 - 35 games ?
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Beans15
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Canada
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Posted - 08/15/2011 :  07:08:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
There is definitely merit in the impact of poor goal keeping on +/-. No different than +/- being impacted by poor linemates and a bad team overall. Or good lines mates, good goalkeeping, and a good team will positively impact that stat.

I did take a look at a few of the players for TO for the first 50 games compared to the final 32 games. Here's what I found.

I looked at Kessel adn Grabovski. Both had improvements though the last 30 games in their +/-. Kessel was -19 in his first 52 games and -1 in the last 30 games. Grabovski was +4 in the first 52 games and was +10 in the last 30 games. It's also interesting to note that Kessel had almost as many point(29) in the last 30 games has he had in the first 52 (34pts). So is it that he was playing better defensively or was he producing more offensively?? Was that not the time where Bozak stopped playing on the first line?? I can't recall.

Grabovksi on the other than had a better +/- in the last 30 games and scored less per game than the first 52 games. That would indicate to me that he did play better defensively.


Regardless, my point is that +\- is a poor stat to compare players defensively and always will be in my opinion. If you dig in further it will usually say that. Kessel did not improve defensively as much as he improved offensively, had better line mates, and better goal keeping.
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slozo
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Canada
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Posted - 08/15/2011 :  08:33:45  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

There is definitely merit in the impact of poor goal keeping on +/-. No different than +/- being impacted by poor linemates and a bad team overall. Or good lines mates, good goalkeeping, and a good team will positively impact that stat.

I did take a look at a few of the players for TO for the first 50 games compared to the final 32 games. Here's what I found.

I looked at Kessel adn Grabovski. Both had improvements though the last 30 games in their +/-. Kessel was -19 in his first 52 games and -1 in the last 30 games. Grabovski was +4 in the first 52 games and was +10 in the last 30 games. It's also interesting to note that Kessel had almost as many point(29) in the last 30 games has he had in the first 52 (34pts). So is it that he was playing better defensively or was he producing more offensively?? Was that not the time where Bozak stopped playing on the first line?? I can't recall.

Grabovksi on the other than had a better +/- in the last 30 games and scored less per game than the first 52 games. That would indicate to me that he did play better defensively.


Regardless, my point is that +\- is a poor stat to compare players defensively and always will be in my opinion. If you dig in further it will usually say that. Kessel did not improve defensively as much as he improved offensively, had better line mates, and better goal keeping.



Hmm - interesting info on the +/- stuff. For Grabovski I wouldn't necessarily say he played better defensively, as the big change last half of the season was that Reimer was in net, and he was playing awesome.

I think overall Kessel's game did improve dramatically last year, however. His giveaway/takeaway ratio was 0, for instance (45 for each), and that giveaway total is middle of the NHL pack. 45 Takeaways, btw, puts Kessel in the top 85 players in that stat - a bit above average.

I think that performing exactly the same as these last two years, Kessel on a "good" Leafs team will be a +10 to a +20 player in the future. Watching him and seeing him perform tell me what those stats may or may not - and that is that he is not a defensive liability.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3586 Posts

Posted - 08/15/2011 :  09:24:54  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:

I wonder what the the leafs players plus / minus would look like if it was taken from the last 30 - 35 games ?



Kessel's +/- ws relatively uniform over the entire year - except for December. He went -11 in the month of December. The Leafs were outscored 43-40 that month.

The last half of the year he was something like -5. And another -5 in Oct and Nov.
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Guest4178
( )

Posted - 08/15/2011 :  12:48:40  Reply with Quote
Plus / Minus, defensive ability/liability, power play stats, performance in the regular season, performance during the playoffs – these things are meaningless when assessing a player's value.

To really really determine a player's value, you have to look at how he's viewed by his peers. And in Phil Kessel's case, you have to look at where he was selected in the all-star game draft, which was last place!

I'm just kidding of course – just adding some levity to a subject matter which has been interesting for the most part, but I must admit, this one sure has "legs!"
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1040 Posts

Posted - 08/16/2011 :  15:03:58  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Lets see how kessel does this season. Hopefully, with a healthy Tim Connolly all season and a healthy Lupul, kessel will have a great year.

Don`t forget also that Lupul was only getting into game shape at last years season`s end. This guy missed an whole seasaon with nagging surgeries and rehab...he was a work in progress.
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1040 Posts

Posted - 08/16/2011 :  15:06:31  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Anyway, off to Regina, Sask. in the morning ( my son is playing for NFLD. in the Midget ( baseball ) nationals ).

Hope some of the larger centers don`t kick our butts too bad
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Guest9272
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Posted - 08/21/2011 :  06:26:12  Reply with Quote
Kessel has been the most overhyped player ever to come to Toronto. Im sure all Toronto fans would do a do over on this trade if possible. Will go down as one of the 5 all time worst trades ever made. Wait and see.
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The Duke
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1040 Posts

Posted - 08/28/2011 :  18:47:19  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Guest maybe Kessel is overhyped.....BUT

Can you please explain to me how a team receiving a 22 year old perrenial 30 - 35 goal scorer, year in - year out....can possibly lead to one of the top 5 worst trades of all time ????/.....i just don`t see it.

If kessel remains a leaf for the bulk of his career....lets say until he is 35 years old....he should score over 400 goals with the leafs.....

Do you know how many leaf players have scored over 400 goals ?? Correct me if i`m wrong...but i think ONE !!!

Most pure goal scorers like kessel play a non - physical brand of hockey...like it or not this is the way it is...Mike Bossy was one of the softest players ever to play the game...thats a fact....funny i never hear bad comments about him.

The only reason kessel gets a bad rap from a lot of people is because he is a leaf, its very unfair for him....this guy is the best pure goal the leafs have and may be one of their greatest all - time if he stays there...but all he gets from most people is negativity....because he wears blue and white....so mant leaf haters.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 08/29/2011 :  08:51:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Duke, I think you are not looking at this from the other side of the coin. Kessel is what he is. He is what you say he is and no one is arguing that.

However, Seguin could very easily become a 60-70 pt, 1st line centre for the Bruins and be a Jonathon Toews type of players. Would that alone not make this trade even at best??? Secondly, Dougie Hamilton has been heavily compared to Rob Blake who was a brusing defensemen, one of the best shut down guys around, and a guy who got 30-40 pts from the back end. Those two players would make this deal more lopsided in Boston's favour. This does not include Knight, who in most opinions will be a very good 3rd line forward and potentially a 2nd line forward.


Sorry Duke, this has nothing to do with who is a Leaf and who is not a Leaf. This is simple math:

One 35/yr goal scorer does not equal a 60-70 pt 1st line forward, a #1 defender, and a 3rd line forward.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4594 Posts

Posted - 08/29/2011 :  10:15:03  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

Duke, I think you are not looking at this from the other side of the coin. Kessel is what he is. He is what you say he is and no one is arguing that.

However, Seguin could very easily become a 60-70 pt, 1st line centre for the Bruins and be a Jonathon Toews type of players. Would that alone not make this trade even at best??? Secondly, Dougie Hamilton has been heavily compared to Rob Blake who was a brusing defensemen, one of the best shut down guys around, and a guy who got 30-40 pts from the back end. Those two players would make this deal more lopsided in Boston's favour. This does not include Knight, who in most opinions will be a very good 3rd line forward and potentially a 2nd line forward.


Sorry Duke, this has nothing to do with who is a Leaf and who is not a Leaf. This is simple math:

One 35/yr goal scorer does not equal a 60-70 pt 1st line forward, a #1 defender, and a 3rd line forward.



Which is why it's a good thing that you haven't been exactly spot on with predicting things, Beans.

Until those players do what you say they MIGHT POSSIBLY do - best case scenario, that is - it's Kessel wins.

Unless you are using twisted Bruins logic or have a hate on for the Leafs . . . which, unfortunately, happens to compromise the majority here so far.

Can't wait to see when Seguin makes Bergeron or Krejci expendable!

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 08/29/2011 :  11:25:43  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
You are right Slozo, I am not 100%. Just 90%+.

That is, in the past 10 years there has been exactly 1 player picked in the top two positions that turned out to be a dud. Also, 9 in 10 of the players picked in the first 2 spots turn out to be All Star Players. So ya, there is a chance that Seguin will be a bust. About a 10% chance!

Yep, you are right. I am not 100% in my predictions nor am I using twisted Bruin logic or showing a hate on for the Leafs. All I am saying that "IF" the three players picked in the spots that Burke traded for Kessel hit their potential, it is a landslide win for the Bruins.

And please don't confuse the comment of #1 centre with something else. You of all people are smart enough to realize that a #1 centre might be a teams #2 or #3 centre. Such as Malkin, Zetterberg, Kesler, Staal, et al. Seguin could very well be a legitimate #1 centre playing behind Krejci or Bergeron. Or is that just twisted Leaf fan logic attempting to justify this potential disgusting trade??
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