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Guest4629
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Posted - 03/06/2012 :  10:25:50  Reply with Quote
Garbage garbovski isnt worth a Bag of Pucks How the heck do's he get a Contract like that ...


He is Terrible .. Brian Burke is a Moron ...

Lee Marshall
Rookie



Canada
102 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  10:46:22  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I disagree. He's a great little 2nd line centre. Needs McArthur to step it up a touch or 2 and a big, talented POWER forward on the other wing to give the unit the missing ingredient which holds them back some.

Now if the first line could land a BIG, strong centre with hands...the Leafs would be something to contend with [plus a shut down D and a dependable goalie]

Grabo is worth more money than he currently gets. Maybe not 5,5 mil a year...but certainly 4.5 to 5.

Who the cap fits...Let them wear it.
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nuxfan
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3582 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  10:48:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
while I think he's worth something, I didn't think that number was 5.5M per year for 5 years. A smallish-yet-talented centre that has yet to reach the 60 pt mark and does not seem to play consistently through the season. I know hopes are high, but will he ever be the sort of player that will live up to this contract? Perhaps I don't see enough of him...

Edited by - nuxfan on 03/06/2012 10:50:00
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mandree888
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Canada
380 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  10:50:33  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
he hit 60 pts last season but wont this season i would have given him 3.5 maybe a 4 . right now (if that is the amount he got) at 5.5 i believe he makes more than kessel. (you know the leading scorer on the team)

Edited by - mandree888 on 03/06/2012 10:54:22
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Guest4178
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Posted - 03/06/2012 :  10:55:49  Reply with Quote
I think Burke overpaid for Grabovski $27.5 million over five years is too much IMO.

Would Grabovski have gotten this kind of money on the open market? Maybe, but maybe not. Most importantly, is he worth $5.5 million a year?

Hemsky was going to become a UFA on July 1st, and the Oilers locked him up at $5 million a year for two seasons. I thought they paid a bit too much for Hemsky, but I'm not a big Hemsky fan. He underachieves, gives the puck away a lot, and he's injury-prone. (The latter which is not entirely his fault.)

In comparing the stats for the Hemsky and Grabovski (both who are 28 years old), here's what you get:

Hemsky:

542 GP: 119G, 305A = 424 Pts. (0.78 ppg)

Grabovski:

306 GP: 82G, 113 A = 195 Pts. (0.64 ppg)

When looking at both players' most recent performance (past two seasons), they are pretty close in ppg. (0.73 for Grabovski and 0.72 ppg for Hemsky.) And both players are nearly identical in minutes played about 17 1/2 minutes per game each. Both get power play minutes, and neither player gets much time on the ice in shorthanded situations.

Once again, I think the Leafs overpaid for Grabovski, but if the Oilers overpaid for Hemsky, I think they overpaid by less (if you catch my drift) than what the Leafs overpaid for Grabovski!
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Beans15
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Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  10:57:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think not only is this an overpayment each year, but it's a long contract. I don't think he is a bag of pucks, but if you look at other players in his wheel house (60 pts/2nd line players) he is likely $1 million overpaid each year. Let's not forget, his 60 pt season was a career best. Think about guys like Ryan Clowe, Travis Zajac, Joe Pavelski, Nathan Horton. All of these guys are in the same class as Grabovksi and all are around $4 million

I would have far less issue with this deal if it was a 2 yr-$11 million deal. At least if it doesn't work, Burke only has 2 seasons to wait.

Sorry Leaf fans, but this smells a lot like the Komesarik deal. Too much money for too long. The guy who takes over for Burke sometime next season will not be happy about having to deal with this.


Hemsky is a great comparison and I agree the Oilers did likely overpay for Hemsky. But I find it easier to swallow knowing that it's only 2 years. If Hemsky was signed for 5 yrs at $5 million per season I would have been calling for head's to roll.

I do think, at peak value, Hemsky is worth much more than Grabovski. Mean, if both players are healthy, happy, and motivated, Hemsky will likely produce 15-20 pts more in a season. He's proven he can be very close to a PPG player. Grabovski hasn't really been close.

Edited by - Beans15 on 03/06/2012 11:01:32
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@valanche
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Canada
240 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  11:19:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
i like grabo personally. is he worth 5.5 a year? probably not. definitely not at this point in his career. i could still see him becoming a much better player. i would have gave him 4.25 over 4 years or as mentioned 5.5 over 2.

66 is > than 99
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nuxfan
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Posted - 03/06/2012 :  11:24:44  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by mandree888

he hit 60 pts last season but wont this season i would have given him 3.5 maybe a 4 . right now (if that is the amount he got) at 5.5 i believe he makes more than kessel. (you know the leading scorer on the team)



He finished last season with 58 points. Like I said, he has not cracked the 60 pt mark yet in his career.
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mandree888
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Canada
380 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  11:29:29  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
my bad nuxfan i checked his stats and you are correct.
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just1n
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244 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  12:44:36  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
For the sake of comparison, the Sedin's each make 6.1M. The Grabo and Hemsky contracts sure are making the Sedin deals look good!

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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3582 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  13:42:44  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by just1n

For the sake of comparison, the Sedin's each make 6.1M. The Grabo and Hemsky contracts sure are making the Sedin deals look good!



you can't compare contracts signed 3 years ago with contracts signed today - the cap was different, the players available were different, player's relative worth was different.

However, it does illustrate how long term deals can sometimes work out in a team's favour. The Sedin's, and Kesler, are each deals that look great now - but were simply market deals at the time. Many even considered Kesler an overpayment back then...
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Beans15
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Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  14:00:41  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan

quote:
Originally posted by just1n

For the sake of comparison, the Sedin's each make 6.1M. The Grabo and Hemsky contracts sure are making the Sedin deals look good!



you can't compare contracts signed 3 years ago with contracts signed today - the cap was different, the players available were different, player's relative worth was different.

However, it does illustrate how long term deals can sometimes work out in a team's favour. The Sedin's, and Kesler, are each deals that look great now - but were simply market deals at the time. Many even considered Kesler an overpayment back then...



Yep, I was one of those guys who said Kessler's deal was an overpayment. You don't hear it often, but boy was I wrong!
But that deal does shed more light on this deal. I get you can't look at deals signed too long ago, but if Kessler was locked up for around $5 million, how is Grabovski worth more than that. Kessler is far the superior player defensive and brings as much or more offensive stuff to the table.

The more I think about this deal the worse I feel for Leaf fans. Burke might be steal a trade here or there, but these kinds of deals will kill this franchise.

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mandree888
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Canada
380 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  14:04:30  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
i agree that this was a bad deal for the leafs. grabo is ok but soooooo not worth 5.5 mil. BTW i screen shot that and am keepin that. beans i now have proof that you can be wrong!
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Alex116
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5790 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  14:22:17  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Lol @ mandree's screen shot!

I think this is a terrible deal for the Leafs, their fans, Burke, etc. I know they risked losing him and unfortunately, teams in the Leafs situation (lack of depth) are sometimes saddled with this type of decision but man, even 5 per year at 5 years would have been too high for my taste! Who knows, maybe Grabo makes a huge step and becomes a 70 point guy in the next year or two, but that's where he'd have to be to get that kinda money out of me!!!

Beans hit on the successor to Burke, but what about Slozo? I mean, when he takes over for Carlyle, it's gonna be up to him to motivate this guy and ensure he's not just cashing his check and mailing it in.....
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nuxfan
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Posted - 03/06/2012 :  15:05:47  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

Yep, I was one of those guys who said Kessler's deal was an overpayment. You don't hear it often, but boy was I wrong!
But that deal does shed more light on this deal. I get you can't look at deals signed too long ago, but if Kessler was locked up for around $5 million, how is Grabovski worth more than that. Kessler is far the superior player defensive and brings as much or more offensive stuff to the table.



We'll never know what comparables the Leafs used for Grabo, but as a second line centre, he should be compared to others in that position (as opposed to Hemsky). When I'm looking at recent signings that should compare to Grabo, I look at: Patrice Bergeron, Ville Leino, Patrick Sharp, Joe Pavelski, and Tuomo Ruutu.

Bergeron - just signed a 3yr/15M extension last year - 5M per season. Has comparable points to Grabo, although he's been consistent over the last 3 years, has hit 80 pts before, and is one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL today.

Leino - just signed a 6yr/27M contract last year - 4.5M per season. Had a breakout year last year with PHI, however has clearly dissappointed this season. Comparable player to Grabo if he finds his form again.

Sharp - just signed a 5yr/29.5M contract - 5.9M cap hit. Better offensive output than Grabo, and good defensive player as well. I think Sharp is very comparable to someone like Mike Richards or Kesler, and don't see Grabo being anywhere near this level of forward.

Ruutu - just signed 4yr/19M contract - 4.75M cap hit. Again, a very similar player to Grabo in terms of offensive output (consistent over the last 4 years) and also type of team he plays for - ie, he doesn't benefit from a lot of offensive support like Sharp or Bergeron.

Pavelski - 4yr/16M contract signed last year - 4M cap hit. Similar in many ways to Grabo, except IMO better defensive upside.

In this light, Grabo is overpaid, and by a fairly long shot both in terms of dollars and term. Of this list only Sharp is making more, but its not far off. The Leafs are clearly looking for Grabo to take things to the next level and keep them there, otherwise this deal sucks right to the end.

Edited by - nuxfan on 03/06/2012 15:06:41
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Beans15
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Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  15:09:33  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I was listening to a interesting story today regarding this deal. It was an interesting perspective from an Edmonton based media guy. I guess when the Hemsky deal was announced there was a pile of guys from all over (including TO) that brought their twitter accounts alive with statements of how bad of a deal it was for the Oilers. Today found the crapstorm going in the opposite direction. Now, this reporter did not engage in the tomfooler because he believes that Burke's hands were tied.

Basically, if Grabovski was allowed to go as as UFA, he needs to be replaced. Quality 2nd line centres do not grow on trees so there is a risk of either not finding one or having to over pay for one that may not be as good as Grabovski. So, does Burke risk losing Grabovksi and not replacing him or does he put up with guys like us beating the crap out of him for overpaying???

It's an interesting theory. Not saying I agree, but interesting.
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nuxfan
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3582 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  15:20:30  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Basically, if Grabovski was allowed to go as as UFA, he needs to be replaced. Quality 2nd line centres do not grow on trees so there is a risk of either not finding one or having to over pay for one that may not be as good as Grabovski. So, does Burke risk losing Grabovksi and not replacing him or does he put up with guys like us beating the crap out of him for overpaying???

It's an interesting theory. Not saying I agree, but interesting.



It is interesting. The hands being tied would only factor in if Burke actually thinks that Grabo would have gotten that kind of deal on the market, and he was forced to make it first.
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Lee Marshall
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Canada
102 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  15:38:05  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
2nd line centres INDEED do not grow on trees...and if they did...it doesn't necessarily mean that even one of them would become a LEAF. So...Burke ensured that he didn't lose Grabo.

5.5 per year? Seems like a LOT today. BUT...What will the going rate be next fall when the contract actually kicks in? Maybe he's been overpaid in terms of what is now behind us. Looking forward though...it could well be the going rate.

Who the cap fits...Let them wear it.
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sahis34
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Canada
573 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  15:41:17  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Let me just point out that hemsky's contract isn't a risk so who cares.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3582 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  16:18:27  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
One thing is for sure - Jamie Benn and Matt Duschene are probably happy as clams, as RFA top-2 centres this offseasn...
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5790 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  17:01:22  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

I was listening to a interesting story today regarding this deal. It was an interesting perspective from an Edmonton based media guy. I guess when the Hemsky deal was announced there was a pile of guys from all over (including TO) that brought their twitter accounts alive with statements of how bad of a deal it was for the Oilers. Today found the crapstorm going in the opposite direction. Now, this reporter did not engage in the tomfooler because he believes that Burke's hands were tied.

Basically, if Grabovski was allowed to go as as UFA, he needs to be replaced. Quality 2nd line centres do not grow on trees so there is a risk of either not finding one or having to over pay for one that may not be as good as Grabovski. So, does Burke risk losing Grabovksi and not replacing him or does he put up with guys like us beating the crap out of him for overpaying???

It's an interesting theory. Not saying I agree, but interesting.



Beans, that's exactly what i was trying to get at when i said that the lack of depth withing the Leafs organization is what makes them have a tough decision in front of them!

Nuxfan, after looking at those comparables, i have no doubt in my mind that he's well overpaid! I would take Pavelski, Bergeron and Sharp over Grabo anyday and Ruutu and Leino would be a toss up. He's making much more than the latter two and in my mind because of that, is overpaid. However, i don't really think that's the argument here. I don't see many saying he is deserving, but the discussion really focuses now on, did Burke make the right choice in overpaying him?
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Shepsky
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Canada
211 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  17:13:47  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Lee, I completely agree with you on this, Though I do agree 5.5 is a bit much for Grabo, at the same time I really didn't want to see the Leafs lose this guy, as obviously neither did Burke. In fact on nuxfan's list of comparable players, the only ones I would even consider taking over Grabo would be Sharp (at a deserved higher price) or Pavelski. I think also factoring this deal is the fact that Grabo seems to be the type of player that Carlyle wants to play, his line with Frattin and MacArthur was on the ice a lot Saturday night, and they produced combining for all three goals, and breaking a long slump for Grabo. The length of this contract might also be a negative, but perhaps Burke is hoping that Grabo and Carlyle contine to see eye to eye, and maybe we have a new franchise player, he might not be the number one scorer, and may never be, but he'll always add depth to the team. I'm glad he'll be wearing blue and white for a while.

Every day is a great day for hockey
-Mario Lemieux
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Guest4377
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Posted - 03/06/2012 :  17:14:46  Reply with Quote
Alex asks a good question. Most agree Grabovski's contract is too much, but did Burke need to make this deal?

We know he would have been a UFA this summer, but would he have really commanded a similar contract on the open market?

Would any NHL team have paid more than what the Leafs just paid for what most people agree is a second line centre?

How many first line centres make less than Grabovski? I'm going to guess around 5-10, but I could be wrong. Better yet, how many second line centres make $5.5 million (or more) per season, and for five years?
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Shepsky
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Canada
211 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  17:15:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Also I can only imagine that this topic was started by a Canadiens fan

Every day is a great day for hockey
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3582 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  17:59:03  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4377

Alex asks a good question. Most agree Grabovski's contract is too much, but did Burke need to make this deal?

We know he would have been a UFA this summer, but would he have really commanded a similar contract on the open market?



Or perhaps more concerning - would Grabo have taken less with another team, and Burke had to overpay in order to keep the player in Toronto?

quote:

In fact on nuxfan's list of comparable players, the only ones I would even consider taking over Grabo would be Sharp (at a deserved higher price) or Pavelski



Shepsky - you might be the only one that takes Grabovski over Bergeron...

Edited by - nuxfan on 03/06/2012 18:00:03
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Clatts
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Canada
266 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  18:09:11  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
He's a good player but does not demand this type of contract either the years or the money but not both and as too Nux's list i'd take him over Lieno and Ruutu

"Most of the guys that wear them are Europeans and French Guys."
Don Cherry on Visors
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Alex116
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5790 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  19:56:45  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Speaking of the "would any team have paid this much for him", did i not hear/read a few times about how he actually liked Toronto and wanted to stay? I could be wrong, but if that was the case, that's not much of a hometown discount!!!
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Shepsky
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Canada
211 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2012 :  20:12:17  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Not true nuxfan me AND Brian Burke


Every day is a great day for hockey
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slozo
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Canada
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Posted - 03/07/2012 :  05:45:13  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think it's a slight, but NECESSARY, overpayment. I am happy with this deal, actually.

If the Leafs had let him go for nothing . . . who would be his replacement? How much would his replacement cost? Would his replacement be a solid 25 goal, 50+ point guy who was a heart and soul player who puts out 110% every night?

Right.

Because that's how you must think if you are the GM, and I think from a team chemistry point of view, and knowing what a heart and soul player Grabo is, with a tireless work ethic and gritty demeanour despite his size . . . you really want to keep a player like that. He is one of the reasons Kessel can be that top line guy, and he is almost always danegrous on the ice. And, he's our best centre right now.

So, I think it's a bit of a "statement" contract to the other players . . . if you perform well, you play your heart out, and if you are a guy who loves the city and wants to stay . . . we're willing to make it a sweet offer.

I honestly think that Grabo would have gotten slightly more elsewhere in the summer if let go. Look at the available centres, folks, and think about the market.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Beans15
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Canada
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Posted - 03/07/2012 :  06:05:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Slozo, I agree with everything you have said with the exception of your use of the word "slightly'. $5.5 million is what Horcoff signed for when he was producing in the range of 20-25 goals and 50+ points and brought everything that Grabovksi can bring. But that is a horrible contract and Grabovski is a 'slight' overpayment?? Also, it is speculative that Grabovski would have gotten more on the FA market. In fact, I completely disagree. I think he would have gotten either less money for a 5 year term (likely around $22 million) or the same money for a 2-3 yr term if he was a UFA.

But, your point about who would the replacement be it dead on, I can't agree more.

I will forgive your blue tinted view of this issue, but a $1 million overpayment for 5 yrs of Grabovski's caliber is more than a 'slight' overpayment.
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slozo
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Canada
4580 Posts

Posted - 03/07/2012 :  06:35:13  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

Slozo, I agree with everything you have said with the exception of your use of the word "slightly'. $5.5 million is what Horcoff signed for when he was producing in the range of 20-25 goals and 50+ points and brought everything that Grabovksi can bring. But that is a horrible contract and Grabovski is a 'slight' overpayment?? Also, it is speculative that Grabovski would have gotten more on the FA market. In fact, I completely disagree. I think he would have gotten either less money for a 5 year term (likely around $22 million) or the same money for a 2-3 yr term if he was a UFA.

But, your point about who would the replacement be it dead on, I can't agree more.

I will forgive your blue tinted view of this issue, but a $1 million overpayment for 5 yrs of Grabovski's caliber is more than a 'slight' overpayment.



Horcoff is a good example of . . . people giving bad examples, IMHO. He is not the same stats wise right now, and outside of his one outlier year of 70 points . . . his next highest year was 53 points, 3 years ago, and he hasn't come close to even that total since. He may reach 40 points this year at his current pace - a marginal 2nd line player, IMHO.

I think we all agree that Grabo is a solid second line centre, no? Certainly compareable stats-wise to second tier top line centres in his best year, quite frankly.

Reasonably close player stats wise / position wise / value IMHO:
Krejci - 2009 3 yr deal for 4 mil/yr this year, 3.75 cap hit
Pavelski - 2010 4 yr deal, 4 mil per year
Backes - 5 yr deal signed in 2011, 4.5 mil per year

Now - all of these are cheaper, I grant you that . . . but if any of them had been impending free agents and had gone ont he market . . . I can tell you someone would have given 6 mil for Backes; 5.5 for Pavelski; and at least 5.5 for Krejci, IMHO.

I think that's why the overpayment was made . . . which I still contend is a slight pverpayment, based on factoring in value to the team.



"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Lee Marshall
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Canada
102 Posts

Posted - 03/07/2012 :  06:45:44  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Let's not forget that the free agent market this year [July 1] will be slim pickins...and not only at centre. Supply and demand? Maybe the Leafs got Grabo cheaper than we think. They certainly wouldn't have been able to pick up ANYONE anywhere near as talented....regardless of the money.

Doesn't bode well for them filling the holes on their roster that need to be filled. But in THIS case...the more I look at it...the more I think Burke made a SMART move.

Who the cap fits...Let them wear it.
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Guest9188
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Posted - 03/07/2012 :  06:46:35  Reply with Quote
Most times in life, what something is worth and what you pay for it just aren't the same. Grabovski may not be worth that but the market determines his price. If Burke let him go he'd easily get more than that as a free agent since this years free agent market would have left him looking like an all star compared to the alternatives. I paid more than my neighbor for my house yet he's obviously got a nicer house. He just bought it at a time when the market was better. Also, I guaruntee that five years from now Grabovski's price will look like a steal unless the NHLPA agrees to put a stop to soaring prices. Good luck with that happening!
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Guest4629
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Posted - 03/07/2012 :  07:04:12  Reply with Quote
No I Hate the Canadians ..... I think this guy is a Joke he sure the hell isnt worth 5 plus mill a yr .. Top's 2.5 m .. With all the good young guys out there why waste your Money on this Bum.. he is a Player that plays when he wants to play.. leafs need a goale never mind a Bum like garbageovski
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Beans15
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Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/07/2012 :  07:06:03  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Slozo, I completely disagree with your opinion and let me explain why:

If you read what I said, Horcoff was comparable to Grabovski when he signed his deal. Not today. Today, Grabovksi is the player I would take comparing the two. Younger, more goal scoring, I get it. However, my point is looking at the two players when they signed their deals.

Let me take you back in time:

Shawn Horcoff
03/04 - 80gms - 15 g, 25 a - 40 pts
05/06 - 79 gms - 22 g, 51 a - 73 pts
06-07 - 80 gms - 16 g, 35 a - 51 pts
07-08 - 53 gms - 21 g, 29 a - 50 pts

Total - 292 gms - 74 g, 140 a - 214 pts (0.73 PPG)

Mikal Grabovksi
08/09 - 78 gms - 20 g, 28 a - 48 pts
09/10 - 59 gms - 10 g, 25 a - 35 pts
10/11 - 81 gms - 29 g, 29 a - 58 pts
11-12 - 60 gms - 21 g, 25 a - 46 pts

Total - 248 gms - 80 g, 107 a - 187 pts (0.75 PPG)

Both were 28 when they signed a multi-year deal for more than $5 million per season.

At the same age and comparable history when they signed their contracts you can not argue they are not comparable. That is where I fail to appreciate that Grabovski's deal is a slight overpayment when I think anyone would agree that Horcoff (even at the time) was grossly overpaid.


Krejci and Pavelski signed their deals at 25 yrs old, not 28. Backes is closer at 27 yrs old, signed this season, and signed for $1 million/season less over the same length of agreement. Grabovksi is not a slight overpayment, a large overpayment. A million dollar a season overpayment.

This also sets a bit of a presedent with the Leafs. When Kessel is due in 2 years, what's he going to ask for? What about Lupul as a #1 line player???

Sorry Slozo, I just can't get there on this being a 'slight' overpayment. We may have to agree to disagree.
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Guest9295
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Posted - 03/07/2012 :  07:17:16  Reply with Quote
Can you say Scot Gomez all over again. Only a die hard Leaf fan would think this is a good deal. Its time too seriously look at replacing Burke.
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slozo
Moderator



Canada
4580 Posts

Posted - 03/07/2012 :  07:21:24  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15

Slozo, I completely disagree with your opinion and let me explain why:

If you read what I said, Horcoff was comparable to Grabovski when he signed his deal. Not today. Today, Grabovksi is the player I would take comparing the two. Younger, more goal scoring, I get it. However, my point is looking at the two players when they signed their deals.

Let me take you back in time:

Shawn Horcoff
03/04 - 80gms - 15 g, 25 a - 40 pts
05/06 - 79 gms - 22 g, 51 a - 73 pts
06-07 - 80 gms - 16 g, 35 a - 51 pts
07-08 - 53 gms - 21 g, 29 a - 50 pts

Total - 292 gms - 74 g, 140 a - 214 pts (0.73 PPG)

Mikal Grabovksi
08/09 - 78 gms - 20 g, 28 a - 48 pts
09/10 - 59 gms - 10 g, 25 a - 35 pts
10/11 - 81 gms - 29 g, 29 a - 58 pts
11-12 - 60 gms - 21 g, 25 a - 46 pts

Total - 248 gms - 80 g, 107 a - 187 pts (0.75 PPG)

Both were 28 when they signed a multi-year deal for more than $5 million per season.

At the same age and comparable history when they signed their contracts you can not argue they are not comparable. That is where I fail to appreciate that Grabovski's deal is a slight overpayment when I think anyone would agree that Horcoff (even at the time) was grossly overpaid.


Krejci and Pavelski signed their deals at 25 yrs old, not 28. Backes is closer at 27 yrs old, signed this season, and signed for $1 million/season less over the same length of agreement. Grabovksi is not a slight overpayment, a large overpayment. A million dollar a season overpayment.

This also sets a bit of a presedent with the Leafs. When Kessel is due in 2 years, what's he going to ask for? What about Lupul as a #1 line player???

Sorry Slozo, I just can't get there on this being a 'slight' overpayment. We may have to agree to disagree.



Fair enough - and I get what you are saying - but put Horcoff's deal in today's inflationary terms, not from three years ago, and then tell me what a gross overpayment Grabo's deal is.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5790 Posts

Posted - 03/07/2012 :  07:54:50  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Slozo, you nailed it right there as far as the comparison to Horcoff goes. 5.5 back when Horcoff signed is likely comparable to at the very least 6+ now. However, at least Horcoff was coming off a 70 point season and i'm sure the Oilers expected more of those.

Compare this to ANYONE out there and i still think it's more than just a slight overpayment. 4.5 / year would have been what i pegged him at and i don't think there are many teams out there who'd have offered him in the 5's. I understand the whole limited UFA's this year but c'mon, that's no reason to go and overpay a guy this much! Make a trade for a #2 center with the money you save off not giving this guy such a ridiculous deal (let's not forget term here!).

Here we had Burke yapping at the deadline about how the asking prices were ridiculously high and that he wouldn't be a buyer and over pay, blah, blah, blah and now this??? As each day passes, i'm more and more shocked at this deal.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8174 Posts

Posted - 03/07/2012 :  08:16:28  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
So maybe this argument is the definition of 'slight' overpayment. As I said (and agree with Alex on), I see Grabovski as a $4.5 million/season guy. Much like Backes. So $5.5 million is a 20% overpayment.

What is the definition of NHL inflation?? Consider that Horcoff signed his deal when the in 2008 the Cap was $56.7 million and when Grabovski signed his deal the Cap is $64.3 million. That's a 12% increase. If that is the inflation we are talking about, Horcoff's deal at $5.5 million would be comparable to $6.16 million today.

Ok, so we established that Horcoff's deal was MORE of an overpayment than Grabovksi's deal. I won't argue that. Back in 2008, using the 12% increase compared to today, Horcoff's deal at $4.8 million would have been an overpayment as well. Horcoff was likely worth about $4 million(at the time) which is comparable to where I think Grabovksi is at $4.5 million today. Hindsight is 20/20 and you can not consider that Horcoff has been a worse player since the deal. At the same point in time, using this inflation calculation, Horcoff was overpaid by more than Grabovski. Agreed???

Unfortuantely, Horcoff getting overpaid by more does not make Grabovksi's overpayment 'slight.' It makes Horcoffs's contract even more disgusting.

If we are using the likes of Backes, Krecji, and Pavelski as the comparables in today's market, Grabovksi's contract is still a 20% overpayment. 20% is a gross overpayment in my opinion. 5% is slight, 10% is excessive, 20% is gross, 30%+(Horcoff level) is time for a new GM.
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Lee Marshall
Rookie



Canada
102 Posts

Posted - 03/07/2012 :  08:33:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
"If we are using the likes of Backes, Krecji, and Pavelski as the comparables in today's market, Grabovksi's contract is still a 20% overpayment. 20% is a gross overpayment in my opinion. 5% is slight, 10% is excessive, 20% is gross, 30%+(Horcoff level) is time for a new GM."

We're not...at least I'm not...using those examples Beans. Krecji's deal is the most recent but I'd wager it was handed out based on different criteria.

Grabo got paid what the going rate WILL become. And it doesn't kick in 'til 2012-13. If what's available makes HIM the BEST guy available...the dollars would have risen...regardless of who was paying.

AND...based on the last 2 seasons I'd say Grabo was UNDERPAID previously. THIS "overpayment" at least in part balances those books and pays him for past performances as well as futures.


Who the cap fits...Let them wear it.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3582 Posts

Posted - 03/07/2012 :  09:46:19  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Some additional info for slozo's comparables:

Krejci - is currently earning 3.25, however signed an extension that kicks in starting next year at 5.25M per year for 3 years. He was a pending RFA

Backes - is in the first year of his 5yr/22.5M deal paying 4.5M per season. Backes signed this deal as a pending UFA, same as Grabo.

Pavelski - went over him before. he also signed as a pending RFA.

The Backes comparison is a good one, I had missed him - similar ages and productions, and I do believe he plays on the second line in STL. Krejci I didn't pick as he is BOS's first line centre.
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